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Sherwin Williams (SHW) Earnings Call Notes

Some interesting notables from Sherwin William’s (SHW) earnings call.

CFO Sean Hennessy had some of the more interesting disclosures:

* $220 million stock repurchased at an average cost of $53.69.
* Debt Expense:
Saul Ludwig – Keybanc: “I don’t understand why your interest expense, just gross interest expense that you write for the amount of debt and the rate that you pay was down in the first quarter when your debt had to be up $250 million.”
Sean Hennessy: “I think when you take a look at the interest rates we went out there with some of the liquidity instruments that we have that are at favorable LIBOR rates.”
Saul Ludwig – Keybanc: “So it was rates that did it?”
Sean Hennessy: “Yes.”
* Total debt will be in the $950 million range vs $1.35 billion currently.

International:
Analyst for Don Carson – Merrill Lynch: “A final question on the Global Group, obviously you bought Nicco Paints last year and you have commented that would be a platform for growth in India. I was wondering if you had any further developments in any of the Asian regions, coupled with your purchase in Singapore?”

Chris Connor: “A lot of work happening in our Nicco business in India. I think it is a little premature to comment on the next steps but as Sean said, we are pleased with these acquisitions and they are continuing to move in the right direction.”

Not much else. Consumer price increases go into effect in May which is why the second half of the year looks stronger than the first. The estimates given take into real pessimistic outlooks for both the residential and commercial markets for the remainder of 2008.

Lead paint received a brief discussion of current status. The only notable here is that the list is 1/5 what is was at this time last year.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW

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Wedneday's Links

Hillary, Pennsylvania, Food, Starbucks

– People are really underestimating the importance of this

– Can you win nationally if you cannot win here?

– Why are prices so high?

– Where are the ideas?

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Wedneday’s Links

Hillary, Pennsylvania, Food, Starbucks

– People are really underestimating the importance of this

– Can you win nationally if you cannot win here?

– Why are prices so high?

– Where are the ideas?

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Smoke 'Em If You Own 'Em

Now this is an earnings release…..

Phillip Morris International (PM) reported its first Post-Altria (MO) spin quarter moments ago and investors ought to be celebrating.

The numbers:
* Diluted earnings per share of $0.89, up 29.0% from $0.69, including the items detailed on Schedule 4
* Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.89, up 30.9% from the 2007 pro-forma adjusted earnings per share of $0.68, including the items detailed on Schedule 5
* PMI increases its forecast for 2008 full-year diluted earnings per share, projecting growth of approximately 14% to 16% to a range of $3.18 to $3.24, from a revised 2007 pro-forma adjusted base of $2.79
* PMI’s new guidance reflects favorable currency, business momentum and increased reinvestment in some key markets
* PMI to acquire Interval and other trademarks in the Other Tobacco Products (OTP) category from Imperial Tobacco Group PLC for 254 million euros

“Our robust first quarter results are a terrific start out of the gate,” said Louis Camilleri, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

“Importantly, we continue to witness an improvement in our business fundamentals as evidenced by the double-digit revenue and income growth recorded in each of our geographic segments.”

PMI reaffirms its previously announced intention to pay a dividend at the initial rate of $0.46 per share per quarter, or $1.84 per common share on an annualized basis. PMI has established a dividend policy that anticipates a payout ratio of approximately 65%.

As previously announced, the $13.0 billion two-year share repurchase program for PMI is expected to begin in early May (12.3% of outstanding market cap).

This is what investors who held shares in the spin expected. Mid double digit EPS growth, a massive share repurchase and growth in markets.

This will be a great holding for a very long time…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long PM,MO

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Smoke ‘Em If You Own ‘Em

Now this is an earnings release…..

Phillip Morris International (PM) reported its first Post-Altria (MO) spin quarter moments ago and investors ought to be celebrating.

The numbers:
* Diluted earnings per share of $0.89, up 29.0% from $0.69, including the items detailed on Schedule 4
* Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.89, up 30.9% from the 2007 pro-forma adjusted earnings per share of $0.68, including the items detailed on Schedule 5
* PMI increases its forecast for 2008 full-year diluted earnings per share, projecting growth of approximately 14% to 16% to a range of $3.18 to $3.24, from a revised 2007 pro-forma adjusted base of $2.79
* PMI’s new guidance reflects favorable currency, business momentum and increased reinvestment in some key markets
* PMI to acquire Interval and other trademarks in the Other Tobacco Products (OTP) category from Imperial Tobacco Group PLC for 254 million euros

“Our robust first quarter results are a terrific start out of the gate,” said Louis Camilleri, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

“Importantly, we continue to witness an improvement in our business fundamentals as evidenced by the double-digit revenue and income growth recorded in each of our geographic segments.”

PMI reaffirms its previously announced intention to pay a dividend at the initial rate of $0.46 per share per quarter, or $1.84 per common share on an annualized basis. PMI has established a dividend policy that anticipates a payout ratio of approximately 65%.

As previously announced, the $13.0 billion two-year share repurchase program for PMI is expected to begin in early May (12.3% of outstanding market cap).

This is what investors who held shares in the spin expected. Mid double digit EPS growth, a massive share repurchase and growth in markets.

This will be a great holding for a very long time…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long PM,MO

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday


Wednesday’s Picks
Karen Finerman recommends Microsoft (MSFT) $30.25 ahead of earnings.

Guy Adami prefers Apple (AAPL) $160.2 also into earnings.

Pete Najarian likes EMC Corp (EMC) $15.59 but don’t chase it over $17, he counsels.

Jeff Macke thinks Yahoo (YHOO) $28.54 is a sell.

Tuesday’s Results
Jeff Macke likes Hasbro (HAS) $34.65 Close $34.18 LOSS

Guy Adami prefers Intel (INTC) $22.46 Close $21.99 LOSS

Pete Najarian thinks Baker Hughes (BHI) $81.82 is a buy. Close $82.21 LOSS

Karen Finerman recommends shorting the British pound by shorting the CurrencyShares British Pound Ster. Trst (FXB) $198.62 Close $199.97 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 30-22-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 29-27
Pete Najarian= 32-23
Karen Finerman= 23-25-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Tuesday's Links

Thank-you, Baristas, A fool, Citi

– Thank you for the mention.

– This is actually a good idea at Starbucks (SBUX).

– Could he be any more gullible?

– No cut here

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Tuesday’s Links

Thank-you, Baristas, A fool, Citi

– Thank you for the mention.

– This is actually a good idea at Starbucks (SBUX).

– Could he be any more gullible?

– No cut here

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Is Micheal Dell into Radioshack (RSH)?

Options activity in RadioShack (RSH) says someone might be looking at it. Rumor is it is Micheal Dell (DELL).

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Fed Auction: Rates Climbing

Hmmmm. This marks the second auction in a row in which rates have risen.

On April 21, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $50 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.870 percent

Total propositions submitted: $88.288 billion
Total propositions accepted: $50.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 1.77

Number of bidders: 83

If this is telling us anything, a 50 point cut at the next meeting is out. One could even make the argument a 25 is in doubt….

Right now the dollar should be a prevailing issue..

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Sherwin Williams: The "International Coatings" Company

Sherwin Williams (SHW) reported Q1 results this morning the big number for investors was a 1.5% increase in sales to a RECORD number. For those consider Sherwin a “housing stock”, the question is: With housing starts and sales plummeting, how is this possible? The short answer is that Sherwin is not a “housing stock” but a “international coatings” company.

— Sales increased 1.5% to a record $1.782 billion
— EPS was $.64 per share, above our current guidance range of $.56 to $.61
— Price increases and cost reductions announced in 1Q08 will continue to be more fully implemented
— EPS range $1.45 to $1.60 for 2Q08. Reaffirming EPS range of $4.70 to $4.85 for the full year (current PE for 2008 of 11.7 times earnings)

How did the international operations do? The Global Group’s net sales in the quarter increased 14.8% to $461.9 million (26% of total sales) when stated in U.S. dollars due primarily to volume gains, selling price increases, currency translation impact and acquisitions. Stated in U.S. dollars, segment profit of the Global Group for the quarter improved $7.7 million, or 21.7%. CEO Christopher Connor said “We continue to be pleased with the strong sales improvements of the foreign business units in our Global Group and the continued growth they have been achieving in the architectural, industrial maintenance, OEM and automotive finishes product lines.”

For Q2 and the remainder of 2008, Connor said, “We expect diluted net income per common share for the second quarter to be in the range of $1.45 to $1.60 per share compared to $1.52 per share last year. For the full year 2008, we now expect a low single digit percentage increase in consolidated net sales over 2007. With annual sales at that level, we are reaffirming our March 24, 2008 guidance that our diluted net income per common share for 2008 will be in the range of $4.70 to $4.85 per share compared to $4.70 per share earned in 2007.”

SHW acquired 4.1 million shares of its common stock through open market purchases during the quarter and had remaining authorization at March 31, 2008 to purchase 22.9 million shares.

Let reverse the argument. Let’s say that Sherwin is a housing stock, plain and simple. Why wouldn’t you buy shares of a housing stock when the industry is in a depression and the company will still manage to break even or have a slight increase in earnings over the previous year. A year, that was a record year by the way. We are not running up against “weak comparisons”. Let’s also not forget the dividend increase…

Wouldn’t this be the poster child for a value stock? Considering it is down 18%, clearly has very strong management, cash position, stable dividend and is a market leader in its industry?

Now, if it isn’t a housing play because of its diversification of businesses then, doesn’t the same argument hold true? Shouldn’t we then say in that scenario that it is being lumped in with stocks it really is not that related to and for that reason (as well as the financial ones) it falls into a the “value” category?

Either way, it is just dirt cheap…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW

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Marty Whitman's "Strategy"

Regular readers kow I am a fan of Whitman and hold a position in his Third Avenue Value Fund (TAVFX). Considering the funds 15% annual return since 1990, it just may pay to listen to what he has to say.

In a shareholder letter, Whitman disclosed the five elements he says are the key to his success. They are: buy cheap, buy quality, buy to hold, buy with minimal expenses, and buy without leverage (margin).

*Buy to hold: Stick with the stock and do not sell just because the price drops. Unless, “there has occurred a permanent impairment in underlying value” of a stock.

*Buy with minimal expenses:
Reduce taxes and trading costs by having the patience and confidence to hold. One of the largest drains on investments not considered by investors are commissions and taxes. For example: An investor has a stock that goes from $10 to $20 and sells. His return is $10, correct? No. Assuming he is in the 28% tax bracket his actual return on the sale is $7.20 ($10 – 28%) after taxes and even less when commissions are factored in. If he decides to buy the stock back he must wait for an in excess of $2.80 a share drop in order for the trading to be worth it.

*Buy without leverage:
Means do not use margin. “While leverage can increase your returns in good times,” he says , “it will dramatically increase your losses in bad times.” Much of the recent angst of investors at Bear Sterns (BSC), Merrill Lynch (MER) and other banks has been due to excessive leverage. Too much leads to forced selling into depressed markets and destroys returns.

*Buying cheap:
Cheap, or, “issues at prices that reflect substantial discounts from readily ascertainable NAVs (net asset values) … (and whose) NAVs will increase by not less than 10% per year compounded”.

*Buying quality:
Whitman defines it as a strong financial position, competent management, and a business that is “understandable … plus lots of cash and a high level of insider ownership … with some type of competitive advantage”.

A very Buffett like strategy and a very simple one filled with common sense.

For more on Whitman’s thinking, visit the Fund’s site here:

Letters can be read here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long TAVFX

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Marty Whitman’s "Strategy"

Regular readers kow I am a fan of Whitman and hold a position in his Third Avenue Value Fund (TAVFX). Considering the funds 15% annual return since 1990, it just may pay to listen to what he has to say.

In a shareholder letter, Whitman disclosed the five elements he says are the key to his success. They are: buy cheap, buy quality, buy to hold, buy with minimal expenses, and buy without leverage (margin).

*Buy to hold: Stick with the stock and do not sell just because the price drops. Unless, “there has occurred a permanent impairment in underlying value” of a stock.

*Buy with minimal expenses:
Reduce taxes and trading costs by having the patience and confidence to hold. One of the largest drains on investments not considered by investors are commissions and taxes. For example: An investor has a stock that goes from $10 to $20 and sells. His return is $10, correct? No. Assuming he is in the 28% tax bracket his actual return on the sale is $7.20 ($10 – 28%) after taxes and even less when commissions are factored in. If he decides to buy the stock back he must wait for an in excess of $2.80 a share drop in order for the trading to be worth it.

*Buy without leverage:
Means do not use margin. “While leverage can increase your returns in good times,” he says , “it will dramatically increase your losses in bad times.” Much of the recent angst of investors at Bear Sterns (BSC), Merrill Lynch (MER) and other banks has been due to excessive leverage. Too much leads to forced selling into depressed markets and destroys returns.

*Buying cheap:
Cheap, or, “issues at prices that reflect substantial discounts from readily ascertainable NAVs (net asset values) … (and whose) NAVs will increase by not less than 10% per year compounded”.

*Buying quality:
Whitman defines it as a strong financial position, competent management, and a business that is “understandable … plus lots of cash and a high level of insider ownership … with some type of competitive advantage”.

A very Buffett like strategy and a very simple one filled with common sense.

For more on Whitman’s thinking, visit the Fund’s site here:

Letters can be read here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long TAVFX

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AutoZone: Lampert Still Buying

On 4/17 Seas Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert, through his ESL Investments hedge fund purchased an additional 69,679 shares of AutoZone (AZO) and about $119 a share.

This brings his ownership to just over 22.9 million shares or over 36% of the total.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Tuesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Rackable Systems (RACK)- Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Wilmington Trust (WL)- B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Citrix Systems (CTXS)- Needham Hold » Buy
POZEN (POZN)- Broadpoint Capital Underperform » Neutral
Embarq (EQ)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Healthcare Services Group (HCSG)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Imperial Tobacco (ITY)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Comerica (CMA)- Punk, Ziegel & Co Sell » Mkt Perform
Ford Motor (F)- Soleil Sell » Buy

Downgrades
Caterpillar (CAT)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Popular Inc (BPOP)- B. Riley & Co Buy » Neutral
Landauer, Inc. (LDR)- Hilliard Lyons Long-term Buy » Neutral
MeadWestvaco (MWV)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Ensco (ESV)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Intevac (IVAC)- Needham Buy » Hold
Caterpillar (CAT)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Caterpillar (CAT)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Wells Fargo (WFC)- Oppenheimer Perform » Underperform
Ryder System (R)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral

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