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Barron's Picks Ups Lampert and Autozone (AZO)

Barrons has a piece on Lampert and his recent Autozone (AZO) purchases.

Below is the Barron’s article:

WITH AUTOZONE ON THE REBOUND, Edward Lampert — its biggest shareholder — spent $94 million to top off his stake in the auto-parts retailer.

On Tuesday Lampert, well-known hedge-fund manager and chairman of Sears Holdings, disclosed that he now owns 22.9 million shares, or a 36.2% stake in the Memphis, Tenn.-based company. The billionaire investor purchased 807,442 shares from April 8 through April 15 for $94 million, an average of $116.04 a share. Lampert last reported owning 22 million shares, or a 31% stake in AutoZone, at the end of the fourth quarter.

The purchases were made indirectly through Lampert’s investment vehicle ESL Investments and other subsidiaries. They were reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission in a 13D filing for active shareholders, although the documents said that the shares were obtained for investment purposes.

Neither Greenwich, Conn.-based ESL Investments nor AutoZone returned phone calls seeking comment on the purchases.

“In the end the most impressive thing about these transactions is that they’re adding onto a large position which ESL has smartly kept for years now,” says Jonathan Moreland, adviser to Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management on insider strategies.

“This has been a huge home run for Lampert, who held onto the accumulation that he undertook when the stock was trading in the mid-$20s in 2001,” he says. “And for him to be topping up his investment — and despite the large dollar value, for him it really is just topping up — makes it more impressive.”

AutoZone shares dipped to a 52-week intraday low of $103.07 on Jan. 22. The stock has since recovered, gaining $1.13 to $122.49 on Friday.

AutoZone lost 8% in the last 12 months, while peers tracked by the Dow Jones Specialty Retail Index fell 18.5%. However, their fortunes diverged since the beginning of the year, with AutoZone rising 1.2% and the Index falling 6.3%.

“Any stock that is [exposed] to consumers paring back has traded down,” says Moreland. “Obviously Lampert has a very long-term view, and the stock is in a long term uptrend. The market is acting as if we’re closer to the end of the turmoil and stocks that were beaten down by that issue are starting to trade up. No one can say we’re absolutely out of the woods, but the smarter money is leaning long and AutoZone is a perfectly decent insider-generated candidate for investors looking to play the longer term bet that the turmoil is over.”

The Street may not be as sanguine as Lampert. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average rate the stock at Hold or the equivalent, with a 12-month target price of $130.20.

AutoZone currently has a Thomson Insider Rating of 7 (on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most bullish), as compared with the Retail Goods industry average of 5.

Joshua Hong, director of research for OwnershipAnalyzer.com, wrote in an email to Barron’s Online that while Lampert’s purchase was positive, other institutional ownership data was neutral.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Barron’s Picks Ups Lampert and Autozone (AZO)

Barrons has a piece on Lampert and his recent Autozone (AZO) purchases.

Below is the Barron’s article:

WITH AUTOZONE ON THE REBOUND, Edward Lampert — its biggest shareholder — spent $94 million to top off his stake in the auto-parts retailer.

On Tuesday Lampert, well-known hedge-fund manager and chairman of Sears Holdings, disclosed that he now owns 22.9 million shares, or a 36.2% stake in the Memphis, Tenn.-based company. The billionaire investor purchased 807,442 shares from April 8 through April 15 for $94 million, an average of $116.04 a share. Lampert last reported owning 22 million shares, or a 31% stake in AutoZone, at the end of the fourth quarter.

The purchases were made indirectly through Lampert’s investment vehicle ESL Investments and other subsidiaries. They were reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission in a 13D filing for active shareholders, although the documents said that the shares were obtained for investment purposes.

Neither Greenwich, Conn.-based ESL Investments nor AutoZone returned phone calls seeking comment on the purchases.

“In the end the most impressive thing about these transactions is that they’re adding onto a large position which ESL has smartly kept for years now,” says Jonathan Moreland, adviser to Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management on insider strategies.

“This has been a huge home run for Lampert, who held onto the accumulation that he undertook when the stock was trading in the mid-$20s in 2001,” he says. “And for him to be topping up his investment — and despite the large dollar value, for him it really is just topping up — makes it more impressive.”

AutoZone shares dipped to a 52-week intraday low of $103.07 on Jan. 22. The stock has since recovered, gaining $1.13 to $122.49 on Friday.

AutoZone lost 8% in the last 12 months, while peers tracked by the Dow Jones Specialty Retail Index fell 18.5%. However, their fortunes diverged since the beginning of the year, with AutoZone rising 1.2% and the Index falling 6.3%.

“Any stock that is [exposed] to consumers paring back has traded down,” says Moreland. “Obviously Lampert has a very long-term view, and the stock is in a long term uptrend. The market is acting as if we’re closer to the end of the turmoil and stocks that were beaten down by that issue are starting to trade up. No one can say we’re absolutely out of the woods, but the smarter money is leaning long and AutoZone is a perfectly decent insider-generated candidate for investors looking to play the longer term bet that the turmoil is over.”

The Street may not be as sanguine as Lampert. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial on average rate the stock at Hold or the equivalent, with a 12-month target price of $130.20.

AutoZone currently has a Thomson Insider Rating of 7 (on a 10-point scale, with 10 being the most bullish), as compared with the Retail Goods industry average of 5.

Joshua Hong, director of research for OwnershipAnalyzer.com, wrote in an email to Barron’s Online that while Lampert’s purchase was positive, other institutional ownership data was neutral.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Weekend Reading At VIN

Here are the week’s top ten at Value Investing News

1. Best Buy Management
(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)

In the sequel to the Right Price Checklist Management article I go over Best Buy’s management and reveal their returns fueled by debt and unusually large amount of related party transactions

2. Whitney Tilson: Let the herd stampede first before making your move
(via www.ft.com)

Without doubt, timely and democratic access to financial and market information contributes to smoothly functioning financial markets. But it’s worth asking whether the ubiquity of such information today is a friend or foe of sound investment decision-making. For all but the most active professional traders, the answer is often “no”.

3. Right Price Checklist: Management
(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)

In the third part of the Right Price Checklist series, I throughly go over how to analyze management.

The article details how to analyze management’s honesty and competence and how well they communicate with shareholders.

4. 5 Tips For Choosing Small Cap Value Stocks
(via www.magicdiligence.com)

Small cap stocks need not be hot tip penny stocks or speculative growth stories based on an idea and a prayer. There are plenty of quality, undervalued small cap stocks out there, and this article tells you how to find them.

5. Templeton’s Mobius Says Credit Crisis Is Near End
(via www.bloomberg.com)

Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said the global credit-market crisis that has caused $245 billion dollars of losses at banks and brokerages is “near the end.”

6. David Dreman : Looking Beyond the Bailout
(via www.forbes.com)

Frightening as the markets look today, there will come a time when the liquidity crisis ends and today’s prices for bank stocks look, in retrospect, like bargains.

7. James Altucher : Why insiders are betting on homebuilders
(via www.ft.com)

A few weeks ago I got an e-mail saying: “Stop with the personal sh*t and give us more stock tips.” So today’s article is ALL STOCKS.

8. What Warren thinks…
(via money.cnn.com)

With Wall Street in chaos, Fortune naturally went to Omaha looking for wisdom. Warren Buffett talks about the economy, the credit crisis, Bear Stearns, and more.

9. Mark Sellers : Take financial talking-heads with a grain of salt
(via www.ft.com)

Everyone acts in his or her self-interest. This is a key facet of humanity, and keeps our society moving forward. Think about that the next time you make an investment decision. As an investor, it is in your interest for your portfolio to do as well as possible with the least risk possible. Unfortunately, this is not the goal of most of the people you may rely on for news and advice.

10. 5th Annual Whitman Day: Breakfast Panel with Martin J. Whitman and Richard Haydon
(via whitman.syr.edu)

Collectively, Martin J. Whitman ’49 BS and Richard Haydon ’66 BA (A&S) have a century of Wall Street experience—and that fact is evident in the wisdom and insight revealed in this wide-ranging panel discussion.

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CEO's Willl Never Learn (MER),(GE),(WB)

“We deliberately raised more capital than we lost last year … we believe that will allow us to not have to go back to the equity market in the foreseeable future,” Merrill Lynch (MER) CEO John Thain

This statement comes the same week both G. Kennedy Thompson at Wachovia (WB) and Jeff Immelt at GE (GE) were force fed prior statements along the same lines and shares in their companies were savaged. Thompson said Wachovia’s dividend was safe and Immelt said GE’s earnings were “in the bag”.

What does Thain gain with the proclamation? Nothing. No one believes what comes out of banker’s mouths today anyway, why say it?

It get’s even worse when just hours later he clarified the statement to mean “raise additional cash through equity”. Super, nice job John. Close the door and then go back and open it up a crack.

Now he either will be forced to take a bad deal on a debt offering or asset sale to raise cash if necessary in order to save face. If he does another equity or preferred sale, his reputation at the bank and with shareholders is crushed even before it has a chance to grow. Let’s say he is right? So what? That and $5 will get him a latte’ and Starbucks (SBUX). Had Merrill be forced to tap equity markets again, it would have been bad but now if they do, Thain will most likely be getting his resume updated.

Thain had absolutely nothing to gain by making the proclamation…….nothing. He now has created an atmosphere in which those so inclined (CNBC’s Charlie Gasparino) are going to make sport out predicting when Merrill will need more cash and how they will get it.

I always thought rule #1 was “under promise and over deliver”. Thain ought to see the example set by Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WB, None

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CEO’s Willl Never Learn (MER),(GE),(WB)

“We deliberately raised more capital than we lost last year … we believe that will allow us to not have to go back to the equity market in the foreseeable future,” Merrill Lynch (MER) CEO John Thain

This statement comes the same week both G. Kennedy Thompson at Wachovia (WB) and Jeff Immelt at GE (GE) were force fed prior statements along the same lines and shares in their companies were savaged. Thompson said Wachovia’s dividend was safe and Immelt said GE’s earnings were “in the bag”.

What does Thain gain with the proclamation? Nothing. No one believes what comes out of banker’s mouths today anyway, why say it?

It get’s even worse when just hours later he clarified the statement to mean “raise additional cash through equity”. Super, nice job John. Close the door and then go back and open it up a crack.

Now he either will be forced to take a bad deal on a debt offering or asset sale to raise cash if necessary in order to save face. If he does another equity or preferred sale, his reputation at the bank and with shareholders is crushed even before it has a chance to grow. Let’s say he is right? So what? That and $5 will get him a latte’ and Starbucks (SBUX). Had Merrill be forced to tap equity markets again, it would have been bad but now if they do, Thain will most likely be getting his resume updated.

Thain had absolutely nothing to gain by making the proclamation…….nothing. He now has created an atmosphere in which those so inclined (CNBC’s Charlie Gasparino) are going to make sport out predicting when Merrill will need more cash and how they will get it.

I always thought rule #1 was “under promise and over deliver”. Thain ought to see the example set by Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WB, None

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Friday's Links

More Krugman, Borders, Tech, ReadBurner

– This one is priceless..

– No, not there, how about Central Mass?

– The reason tech companies dominance grows shorter..

– Anyone use this?

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Friday’s Links

More Krugman, Borders, Tech, ReadBurner

– This one is priceless..

– No, not there, how about Central Mass?

– The reason tech companies dominance grows shorter..

– Anyone use this?

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Harley Davidson Earnigs Call Notables..

Harley Davidson (HOG) gave more insight into the primary reason earnings are dropping in the earnings call.

Financial Services:
“Harley-Davidson Financial Services delivered first quarter operating income of $34.9 million a decrease of $24 million or 40.8% compared to last year’s first quarter. This decrease is primarily due in a reduction in income from securitization. As most of you are aware the first quarter was a challenging time in the securitization markets. In the first quarter of 2007 HDFS sold $540 million of retail motorcycle loans. As part of the transaction HDFS retained $54 million of the subordinated securities on its balance sheet and recognized a loss totaling $5.4 million. This compares to an $800 million securitization transaction with a gain of $13 million during last year’s first quarter. The loss in the first quarter of 2008 was driven by increased securitization funding costs due to capital market volatility and expectation of higher credit losses compared to historical trends.”

“HDFS originated $518 million in retail motorcycle loans in the first quarter of 2008 compared to $630 million in the first quarter of 2007.”

“In terms of credit performance the 30 plus day delinquency rate for managed retail motorcycle loans was 4.78% at the end of the first quarter of 2008 compared to 4.08% at the end of the first quarter of 2007. Consistent with seasonal trends over the past several years’ delinquencies declined from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2008 and credit losses on managed retail motorcycle loans were 2.71% for the first quarter of 2008 compared to 2.28% for the same period last year.”

“During the quarter the percentage of subprime loans outstanding remain within our historical growth range of 25 to 30% of managed retail loan receivables.”

Pretty straight forward stuff. Delinquencies have risen but not by any means at an alarming rate. The real problem is the ability for HOG to sell the loans at a profit. This is not any different than any other firm trying to sell securitized loans.

The key is that they are not having any problems funding additional loans and are not being forced to hold more than they want…

This will just take some time.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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Citigroup's Flush

A plan seems to be emerging from Citigroup (C). If nothing else, the credit situation was not a worse as people feared.

Citigroup reported a net loss of $5.1 billion, or $1.02 a share, for Q1 with more than $10 billion of write-downs. Revenue fell 48% to $13.22 billion. They took $6 billion of pretax write-downs and credit costs on sub-prime loans. The firm also announced write-downs of $3.1 billion on funded and unfunded highly leveraged finance commitments, a downward credit value adjustment of $1.5 billion related to exposure to monoline insurers, write-downs of $1.5 billion on auction rate securities inventory, and a $3.1 billion increase in credit costs in its global consumer business.

Citi also said they have already sold $4 billion in leveraged loans in April. CFO Gary Crittendon said there will be no “transformational” assets sales (they will sell some, just nothing big) in 2008, no more dividend cuts, and no more equity raising. About 9,000 additional jobs, on top of the 4,000 already announced are going to be cut.

In short, things seem to have bottomed. This is not to say it is a shot up from here. My guess is thing languish for a while until there is some trust back in the financials. The past month has seem an avalanche of bad news out there and as a group the financials have taken the hit and equity prices have remained stable.

Now we look to next quarter for more stabilization and perhaps improvement. If there is improvement, it will be small. Just no further billion dollar write down would be huge at this point. Investors seem to have much more clarity as to both what is happening inside the bank and in the environment it operates in.

For long term folks, it would seem a good time to get in.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C

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Citigroup’s Flush

A plan seems to be emerging from Citigroup (C). If nothing else, the credit situation was not a worse as people feared.

Citigroup reported a net loss of $5.1 billion, or $1.02 a share, for Q1 with more than $10 billion of write-downs. Revenue fell 48% to $13.22 billion. They took $6 billion of pretax write-downs and credit costs on sub-prime loans. The firm also announced write-downs of $3.1 billion on funded and unfunded highly leveraged finance commitments, a downward credit value adjustment of $1.5 billion related to exposure to monoline insurers, write-downs of $1.5 billion on auction rate securities inventory, and a $3.1 billion increase in credit costs in its global consumer business.

Citi also said they have already sold $4 billion in leveraged loans in April. CFO Gary Crittendon said there will be no “transformational” assets sales (they will sell some, just nothing big) in 2008, no more dividend cuts, and no more equity raising. About 9,000 additional jobs, on top of the 4,000 already announced are going to be cut.

In short, things seem to have bottomed. This is not to say it is a shot up from here. My guess is thing languish for a while until there is some trust back in the financials. The past month has seem an avalanche of bad news out there and as a group the financials have taken the hit and equity prices have remained stable.

Now we look to next quarter for more stabilization and perhaps improvement. If there is improvement, it will be small. Just no further billion dollar write down would be huge at this point. Investors seem to have much more clarity as to both what is happening inside the bank and in the environment it operates in.

For long term folks, it would seem a good time to get in.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C

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Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades

Upgrades
Lam Research (LRCX)- AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
IBM (IBM)- Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Swift Energy (SFY)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Newfield Expl (NFX)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Venoco (VQ)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Cepheid (CPHD)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Cimarex (XEC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Forest Oil (FST)- UBS Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
eBay (EBAY)- AmTech Research Buy » Neutral
Emulex (ELX)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Artes Medical (ARTE)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
j2 Global (JCOM)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Caribou Coffee (CBOU)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
PF Chang’s (PFCB)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Cosi (COSI)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Illinois Tool (ITW)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Astoria Fincl (AF)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Intl Paper (IP)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Esterline Techs (ESL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Procter & Gamble (PG)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
UST Inc (UST)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sonic Automotive (SAH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Arcelor Mittal (MT)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
Spansion (SPSN)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Old Dominion (ODFL)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Badger Meter (BMI)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Underperform

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Upgrades
Lam Research (LRCX)- AmTech Research Neutral » Buy
IBM (IBM)- Canaccord Adams Hold » Buy
Swift Energy (SFY)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Newfield Expl (NFX)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Venoco (VQ)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Cepheid (CPHD)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Cimarex (XEC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Forest Oil (FST)- UBS Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
eBay (EBAY)- AmTech Research Buy » Neutral
Emulex (ELX)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Artes Medical (ARTE)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
j2 Global (JCOM)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Caribou Coffee (CBOU)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
PF Chang’s (PFCB)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Cosi (COSI)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Illinois Tool (ITW)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Astoria Fincl (AF)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Intl Paper (IP)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Esterline Techs (ESL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Procter & Gamble (PG)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
UST Inc (UST)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sonic Automotive (SAH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Arcelor Mittal (MT)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
Spansion (SPSN)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Old Dominion (ODFL)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Badger Meter (BMI)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Underperform

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Picks
Thursday’s Results
Guy Adami likes Microsoft (MSFT) $28.95 Close $29.22 GAIN

Carter Worth says International Coal Group (ICO) $7.20 is a buy as a laggard in the red hot coal space. Close $7.70 GAIN

Pete Najarian prefers Petrohwak Energy (HK) $23.18 which he believes has room on the upside. Close $23.31 GAIN

Tim Seymour recommends shorting Petrobras (PBR) $122.84 for the next 4 or 5 sessions.
Close $125.49 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 28-21-1
Tim Seymore= 15-11
Guy Adami= 28-25
Pete Najarian= 30-22
Karen Finerman= 22-24-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Thursday's Links

Krugman, Marriage and Divorce, iPhone, Text Alert

– Is there a more dishonest person alive?

– This was fascinating..

– More price cuts

– This is one of those things you can’t help but ask, “what took so long?”

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Thursday’s Links

Krugman, Marriage and Divorce, iPhone, Text Alert

– Is there a more dishonest person alive?

– This was fascinating..

– More price cuts

– This is one of those things you can’t help but ask, “what took so long?”

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