Anecdotal from both LegoLand, SeaWorld and Disney (all in California) employees were saying that “It has been really, really busy” the last couple months (for this time of year) despite weather that has been less than perfect. The weather things is relative, it was 65 and sunny when we were there and we thought it was perfect…they had winter coats on. Bottom line is people are spending and traveling. According to the Disney hotel, they were full meaning the guests that were packing the park were from out of town, not locals out for a nice day at Disney.
When that is combined with the following hard data I get a clear picture that we continue to see economic expansion. Again ignoring the ST market swings (except to be opportunistic to add to things when cheap), as we continue to look forward we see continued improvement.
Note: I omitted today’s ADP #’s on purpose…IMO they are so inconsistent and prone to error to render themselves useless
Rail:
Week 8 2011 came in at 657k cars vs 631k in 2010 and 577k in 2009 (total N. American rail traffic).
Also:
The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online Index remains high indicating a continued and strong economic need for additional employees. The press release can be viewed at the following link: Labor demand is there. This is a negative to LT unemployment benefits. Why work for 50k a year if you are collecting that and sitting home? Do not delude yourself into thinking this is not a rampant problem in many areas.
Then:
The ISM’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index edged up to 59.7 last month from 59.4 in January. Forecasters surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the February PMI to slip to 59.0. Readings above 50 indicate expanding activity.
The ISM said last month’s business activity/production index increased to 66.9 from 64.6 in January. But the new-orders index slowed to a still-high 64.4 last month from 64.9. The ISM employment index rose to 55.6 from 54.5 in January. Non-manufacturers are paying more for inputs, especially energy products. The ISM’s prices index increased to 73.3 in February from 72.1.
Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that overall economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace in January and early February. Both Kansas City and San Francisco noted that their economies expanded further. Boston and Philadelphia cited conditions as improving. New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, and St. Louis described activity as modestly improving, while Minneapolis and Dallas experienced moderate growth. Chicago reported that although there was an increase in activity, it was at a pace not quite as strong as during the previous reporting period.
Retail sales increased in all Districts, except Richmond and Atlanta, although Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City noted that severe snowstorms had a negative impact on merchant activity. Retail inventory levels were described as desirable in New York, Cleveland, Dallas, and San Francisco. Tourism improved in Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco, while New York and Kansas City noted a slowdown in activity as hotel occupancy rates declined. Some Districts reported a slight increase in the level of residential real estate activity, although all Districts maintained that the overall level of home sales and construction remained low. Several Districts indicated improvements in commercial real estate sales and leasing activity, including Boston, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. Most reports characterized nonresidential construction as weak.
All Districts, except St. Louis, experienced solid growth in manufacturing production, and new orders improved for Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Most regions observed an increase in nonfinancial services. Boston, Philadelphia, and San Francisco reported that sales advanced for services related to information technology, while Kansas City noted softer sales of IT services.