“Davidson” submits:
History indicates that we have never ‘talked ourselves into recession’. While pessimism lowers stock prices, market prices do not predict nor cause recessions. Recessions occur because society over-levers, spends too much and then is forced to pull back from an overly extended economy. That is not the current situation.
Trucking Tonnage is now available on St Louis Fed FRED database. I looked at it vs the Chemical Activity Barometer(CAB), Job Openings and the US$. Higher US$ slows US mfg exports and with a lag shows in each of these indices. The CAB matches the Trucking Tonnage Index fairly well.
Currently, Real Retail Sales were reported at record levels. Economic activity appears to remain on trend. Industrial activity stalled 2014-2016 when the US$ rose, but companies adjusted and resumed growth. . I expect companies to apply ‘lean’ processes to overcome the recent bout of US$ strength just as they did in 2014-2016.
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