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Inventory Rises With Refinery Input Slowdown…..No Sign Consumption Falling

 

“Davidson”

  • US Crude Inv rise ~3mil BBL-~25mil BBL below 5yr mov avg
  • US Oil Production hits new high 12.6mil BBL/Day
  • Refining Inputs fall below the low-range of seasonal trends as more refineries enter Summer/Winter Blend change over

US Gasoline stocks fell by ~1mil BBL and expected to fall further as the Summer/Winter Blend change over proceeds. Overall, US continues to replace crude imports with native production increases while US consumption is flat and exports of refined products continue to rise at recent trends. US Net Exports of Refined Petroleum Products is ~3mil BBL/Day. What makes some of this confusing is that it is more cost effective for parts of the US to import from foreign sources than to pay transportation costs to ship domestically produced supplies.

Even though there is considerable discussion of a global economic slowdown, there is no sign of slowing consumption in the oil markets.