“Davidson” submits:
The history of construction spending since 1993 reveals that this data tends to weaken prior to recessions. But for a recent dip in Residential Construction attributed to the rise in mortgage rates, this indicator is charging higher. Noteworthy is Manufacturing Construction. While Total Construction has risen ~20% since Sept 2021, Manufacturing Construction has risen 125% over the same time frame. This matches the reshoring narrative.
The COVID disruption revealed many flaws in pre-COVID supply chains including reliability of product supply and quality control. Without secure supply and parts manufactured to engineering specs corporations rapidly lose profitability. That Total Construction Spending remains in a strong uptrend, with exceptional strength from Manufacturing Construction, indicates continued economic expansion despite analyst’s forecasts for recession.
At some point, investors will respond to good news and price industrial issues higher.