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Durable Goods Orders Holding

“Davidson” submits:

New Orders for Durable Goods continue to hold at high levels. As usual the volatile aircraft orders dominate the overall series but strength remains in manufacturing machinery and motor vehicles and parts series. The Domestic Motor Vehicle Inventory remains ~80% below operating levels of recent economic cycle levels and the Manheim Used Vehicle Index(not shown) remains over 200 anticipated in the 150-160 range once the industry normalizes. At the moment used vehicle demand remains high with so little new stock available.

The current economy still has a bit of catch up post-COVID with perhaps 5-14mil more individuals increase in population since Apr 2020 if you include the illegal immigrants known to have entered the US and all need transportation to work to generate income.

Even without the population overage, normal wear and tear replacement has not occurred and that demand remains outstanding for a boost in sales when all supply chain issues are resolved. Economic growth should continue for a few years.

Buy equities of well-managed companies that remain discounted to their prior financial histories. Many are in industrial and oil and gas sectors.