Categories
Articles

Lowe’s Getting Interesting

Almost a year since my first ever Lowe’s (LOW) post. With the housing decline seemingly slowing, it may be time to take a closer look.

In the latest quarter ending Feb. 1, earning fell to $408 million, or 28 cents per share, from $613 million, or 40 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Sales dropped to $10.38 billion from $10.41 billion. For the year, net income declined to $2.81 billion, or $1.86 per share, from $3.1 billion, or $1.99 per share. The 6% annual EPS drop was far better than the 15% drop at Home Depot

When one considers what has happened to housing, these results are actually oustanding.

Both Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s have curtailed expansion plans. This is good.

Also, value investor David Dreman has a position in the company.

The stock is sitting at 4 year lows and it just may be we are at the worst in housing.

I would not be surprised at all to see a nice bump from the upcoming “stimulus checks” being issue this week. I was at Lowe’s this weekend and have not seen it as packed as it was in a very long time. Perhaps people were there spending on credit cards in anticipation of paying it off after the checks come in?

Between Home Depot and Lowe’s, the latter is clearly the better run company and the stock price has held up much better over the past year down 16% vs a 22% loss for Home Depot.

Now, The Depot does have a 3% yield (vs 1.2% for Lowe’s) going for it and that cannot be overlooked. I just cannot trust management at the Depot to be wise stewards of the cash it has or not to sink it into debt to pacify impatient shareholders.

That being said, if I am going to invest in the sector, the edge has to go to Lowe’s.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Lowe's Getting Interesting

Almost a year since my first ever Lowe’s (LOW) post. With the housing decline seemingly slowing, it may be time to take a closer look.

In the latest quarter ending Feb. 1, earning fell to $408 million, or 28 cents per share, from $613 million, or 40 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Sales dropped to $10.38 billion from $10.41 billion. For the year, net income declined to $2.81 billion, or $1.86 per share, from $3.1 billion, or $1.99 per share. The 6% annual EPS drop was far better than the 15% drop at Home Depot

When one considers what has happened to housing, these results are actually oustanding.

Both Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s have curtailed expansion plans. This is good.

Also, value investor David Dreman has a position in the company.

The stock is sitting at 4 year lows and it just may be we are at the worst in housing.

I would not be surprised at all to see a nice bump from the upcoming “stimulus checks” being issue this week. I was at Lowe’s this weekend and have not seen it as packed as it was in a very long time. Perhaps people were there spending on credit cards in anticipation of paying it off after the checks come in?

Between Home Depot and Lowe’s, the latter is clearly the better run company and the stock price has held up much better over the past year down 16% vs a 22% loss for Home Depot.

Now, The Depot does have a 3% yield (vs 1.2% for Lowe’s) going for it and that cannot be overlooked. I just cannot trust management at the Depot to be wise stewards of the cash it has or not to sink it into debt to pacify impatient shareholders.

That being said, if I am going to invest in the sector, the edge has to go to Lowe’s.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Monday's Links

Starbucks “entertainment”, Lead Paint, Sequoia, Gphone

– Or, you could just get rid of it, you were better off before it.

– Believe it or not, we are still playing this game

– One of the greatest funds ever.

Coming soon………

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Monday’s Links

Starbucks “entertainment”, Lead Paint, Sequoia, Gphone

– Or, you could just get rid of it, you were better off before it.

– Believe it or not, we are still playing this game

– One of the greatest funds ever.

Coming soon………

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

A Look at AutoNation (AN)

Been getting a deluge of email since Lampert’s big buying in AutonNation(AN). Here we go.

Overview:
AutoNation (AN) operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. As of December 31, 2007, it owned and operated 322 vehicle franchises from 244 stores located in major metropolitan markets, predominantly in the Sunbelt region of the United States. Its stores sell 38 different brands of vehicles. Core brands of vehicles sold, representing more than 96% of the vehicles sold, were manufactured by Toyota, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Nissan, Chrysler, Daimler and BMW.

Despite Q1 EPS from continuing operations of $0.31 compared to a year ago of $0.39, AutoNation did outperform the U.S. retail auto sales market as it declined 11% according to CNW Research vs 8% for the company. In its main markets of California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona, AutoNation’s new unit sales were down 11% vs approximately 15% according for the industry according to CNW Research.

Industry analysts like CNW and J.D. Power forecast improved new vehicle sales beginning in 2009 due to fleet age and increase in vehicle scrappage, and a robust line-up of new products. CNW forecast new vehicle sales of 16.3 million in 2009, 16.7 million in 2010, and 16.9 million in 2011. We concur with this assessment for future new vehicle sales.

During Q1,they repurchased 1.9 million shares of stock (1% of total) at an average price of $14.84 per share for a total of $28 million. Future repurchases are subject to limitations contained in debt agreements. As of April 1, 2008, they had capacity for share repurchases of approximately $32 million. They are permitted to add back 50% of net income after tax and any stock option exercise proceeds for additional repurchases.
Actually, that is a very unique and disciplined way to do it.

Non-vehicle debt-to-capital ratio was 33% at the end of the most recent quarter and spent $29 million on the acquisition of a BMW dealership. Inventory was at 57 days, 5 days higher than last year.

Shares are down 25% over the past year based on the economy.

Buffett, Lampert and other value investors have been buying into the auto industry. The key to remember if you are so inclines is to stay away from the likes of Ford (F) and GM (GM) and stick with the retailers. When the economy improves, so will their business. A stock price down 25% vs a 15% EPS decline? Sounds like an opportunity, especially when you consider the share count reduction that will cause EPS to jump on the other side of the rebound.

I think one could wait until summer to pick up shares and not pay much more than today. It may not be such a bad idea…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Harley Davidson Increases Dividend

At the recent shareholder meeting, Harley Davidson increase the annual dividend 10% to .33 per share quarterly. That gives it a 3.4% yield at today’s price.

View meeting results here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Race and Democrats

No investing here but just an observation and a question. Why are Democrats so obsessed with race?

Condolezza Rice and Colin Powell have both been called “Uncle Tom’s” by Democrats. When Micheal Steele ran for Governor of Maryland, the Maryland Democratic party called him an “Uncle Tom”.

Bill Clinton is claiming Barack Oboma is playing the “race card”. Of course this is after Barack’s speech (lecture to America) on race and 8 years after Democrats labeled Clinton himself the “First Black President”.

97% of African American Democrats in Pennsylvania voted for Barack. 97%? Castro would love numbers like that.

It is not a “Presidential Election” issue either as Rice, Powell and Steele were not running for the office.

Does anyone have an answer?

Why? Why are Democrats so fixated and hostile when it comes to race?

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Dow Chemical (DOW) Earnings Call Notes

Some very interesting items in this quarters earnings call for Dow Chemical (DOW)

* Dow repurchased 10.8 million shares in the first quarter ($410 million worth) the most purchased in one quarter in over 10 years. Since Q1 2006, Dow has spent $2.5 billion buying back 61 million shares.
* Expect $400 million in repurchases in Q2
* Liveris on JV openings “On the HPPO project with BASF in Antwerp, that project has had some delays, so we expected to be back half this year in terms to start up on the EQUATE expansion that will come up in phases, the third quarter will see the ethylene and EG …EOEG plant come up and the poly ethylene will come up in the early part of next year so there will be some impact from that and the PO project later in the year.”
* Liveris on what will happen with the $9.5 billion from Kuwait:
“I’ve repeated to many of you and so has Geoffery, that our discipline is intact on the M&A front. We’ve had several years of strict discipline, financial and strategic criteria, we are going to go through the year and frankly, the share buyback option as the Kuwait deal looms to close, becomes more and more probable and we’ve always said we’re going to preserve our optionality in case one of the targets we’ve been interested in now, not just for a month, but for years if these targets become more realizable, we will look at them, but I think the probability waits heavily to share buyback, to your question as the year goes by, what you’ll see from us is patience and prudence and discipline and as the Kuwait deal, as Geoffery mentioned in his remarks gets closer and closer to- through the higher due diligence phase to close, the chances of share buyback increase quite dramatically.”

I have been saying what would be perfect would be a $4.5 billion repurchase, a nice dividend hike and keep the rest for acquisitions as they come up. Liveris has proven to be a deft and disciplined value investor in this area and leaving his the means to exercise that ability without the company having to take on more debt is good for shareholders. This does not mean that a year from now if no opportunities arise another $2 to $3 billion could not be bought, there is just no reason to rush out and do it at once, even though it would make a nice headline.

Doing a partial buyback like the one above would enable a $.25 cent dividend increase without any additional cash outlay, bumping the yield up to 4.7% at current prices. I can live with that.

* Liveris on acquisitions:
“And it’s based on history. As you can see, we’ve done 11 smaller acquisitions, as Geoffrey mentioned in his remarks. The probability is that they will stay small until the right opportunity presents itself that’s bigger. Meantime, then, the deadline, if you want to use that term, of the close of our Kuwait deal increases the probability that share buyback will become a reality. And we’re fine with that. I mean, we’re preserving optionality and we’re doing share buyback. It’s a big and. And that’s how we’re managing the Company. That’s how we’re managing the precious cash our shareholders give us the right to manage.”

Am I the only one who thinks Sherwin Williams (SHW) fits perfectly here?

All in all, perfectly in keeping with both stated objectives and the direction given to shareholders.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, SHW

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Wright Medical (WMGI)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Axsys Technologies (AXYS)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Emulex (ELX)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Synovus (SNV)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Health Management (HMA)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Tenet Healthcare (THC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Northrop Grumman (NOC)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Progenics Pharm (PGNX)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Baidu.com (BIDU)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Infinity Prpty & Casualty (IPCC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Phase Forward (PFWD)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Newmont Mining (NEM)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
YRC Worldwide (YRCW)- Morgan Keegan Underperform » Mkt Perform
Virgin Mobile USA (VM)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Northrop Grumman (NOC)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Aetna (AET)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Harte-Hanks (HHS)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Janus Capital (JNS)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Nike (NKE)- McAdams Wright Ragen Buy » Hold
AmericanWest Banc (AWBC)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Columbia Sportswear (COLM)- McAdams Wright Ragen Buy » Hold
Raytheon (RTN)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- Dougherty & Company Neutral » Sell
NETGEAR (NTGR)- BWS Financial Strong Buy » Buy
Arch Coal (ACI)- Caris & Company Average » Below Average
Massey Energy (MEE)- Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
Peabody Energy (BTU)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Banco Brad SA (BBD)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
3M (MMM)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)- Barrington Research Outperform » Mkt Perform
T. Rowe Price (TROW)- Sandler O’Neill Hold » Sell
UCBH Holdings (UCBH)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
AMBAC Fincl (ABK)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Dover Downs Gaming (DDE)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
EMCOR Group (EME)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Ford Motor (F)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
BJ Restaurants (BJRI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
EastGroup (EGP)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Dvlps Divers Realty (DDR)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Ford Motor (F)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
America Movil SA (AMX)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Monday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Wright Medical (WMGI)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Axsys Technologies (AXYS)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
Trimble Navigation (TRMB)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Emulex (ELX)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Synovus (SNV)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Health Management (HMA)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Tenet Healthcare (THC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Northrop Grumman (NOC)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Progenics Pharm (PGNX)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Baidu.com (BIDU)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Infinity Prpty & Casualty (IPCC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Phase Forward (PFWD)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Newmont Mining (NEM)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
YRC Worldwide (YRCW)- Morgan Keegan Underperform » Mkt Perform
Virgin Mobile USA (VM)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Northrop Grumman (NOC)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Aetna (AET)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Harte-Hanks (HHS)- Deutsche Securities Sell » Hold
Janus Capital (JNS)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Nike (NKE)- McAdams Wright Ragen Buy » Hold
AmericanWest Banc (AWBC)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Columbia Sportswear (COLM)- McAdams Wright Ragen Buy » Hold
Raytheon (RTN)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
SiRF Technology (SIRF)- Dougherty & Company Neutral » Sell
NETGEAR (NTGR)- BWS Financial Strong Buy » Buy
Arch Coal (ACI)- Caris & Company Average » Below Average
Massey Energy (MEE)- Caris & Company Buy » Above Average
Peabody Energy (BTU)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Banco Brad SA (BBD)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
3M (MMM)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)- Barrington Research Outperform » Mkt Perform
T. Rowe Price (TROW)- Sandler O’Neill Hold » Sell
UCBH Holdings (UCBH)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
AMBAC Fincl (ABK)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Dover Downs Gaming (DDE)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
EMCOR Group (EME)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Ford Motor (F)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
BJ Restaurants (BJRI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
EastGroup (EGP)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Dvlps Divers Realty (DDR)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Ford Motor (F)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
America Movil SA (AMX)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

The Week's Insider Buys

Top dollar amounts of insider purchases for the past week.

Autozone Inc (AZO)- $8,487,571
Presstek Inc (PRST)- $3,549,265
Colonial Bancgroup Inc (CNB)- $2,942,470
Visa Inc (V)- $1,760,000
Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)- $997,233
Motive Inc (MOTV)- $646,700
Slm Corp (SLM)- $498,855
Alternative Asset Management Acqstn Corp (AMV)- $300,901

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

The Week’s Insider Buys

Top dollar amounts of insider purchases for the past week.

Autozone Inc (AZO)- $8,487,571
Presstek Inc (PRST)- $3,549,265
Colonial Bancgroup Inc (CNB)- $2,942,470
Visa Inc (V)- $1,760,000
Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ)- $997,233
Motive Inc (MOTV)- $646,700
Slm Corp (SLM)- $498,855
Alternative Asset Management Acqstn Corp (AMV)- $300,901

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
None

Friday’s Results
Jeff Macke, Guy Adami and Karen Finerman all think Microsoft (MSFT) $31.8 is a buy if it trades below $30. Close $29.83 LOSS

Pete Najarian prefers Saso (SSL) $57.39 Close $57.19 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 32-23-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 31-28
Pete Najarian= 34-24
Karen Finerman= 25-26-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Friday’s Links

Ouch, Common Sense, Class, Paperchase

– Who needs the Republican’s to say anything?

– Courts seem to be using a bunch of this lately..

– Somehow this will be twisted into a “republican conspiracy

– Anyone been in one of these?

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.

Categories
Articles

Friday's Links

Ouch, Common Sense, Class, Paperchase

– Who needs the Republican’s to say anything?

– Courts seem to be using a bunch of this lately..

– Somehow this will be twisted into a “republican conspiracy

– Anyone been in one of these?

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.