Bio-fuels, Whitman, Amen Joe Ponzio, Wendy’s and Starbucks
– It is only a matter of time before a stunning breakthrough happens..
– Gotta love this guy
– The truest thing ever written
– Interesting when looking at the past one gets lessons for the future
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“We will return to what made us great and focus on coffee,” Howard Schultz. New says different Howard and Starbucks (SBUX) shareholders may just benefit…
This summer, Starbucks will add fresh fruit and whey powder smoothie drinks in the U.S.. They say they’re the first stage of a broader push into healthier drinks and food offerings. “It’s also what we believe to be a huge differentiator,” said Rob Grady, Starbucks’ vice president, beverage. “You cannot get [them] from any fast-food establishment.” The flavors Starbucks has developed include chocolate banana and orange mango.
OK. Let’s just ignore that for the last year Starbucks has been saying McDonalds (MCD) Dunkin Donuts and their ilk were “not the competition”. Clearly this statement is an admission they are. We also need to ignore that I can get a smoothie from Dunkin Donuts. Let’s also ignore the runs polar opposite to what CEO Howard Schultz has been running around saying since he re-assumed the CEO post that it was going to be “all about the coffee”. Now that those nagging details are out of the way, it is a good move. But, it is only a good move if the smoothies are actually priced reasonably. If they run $4 to $5 a glass, nice idea, lousy execution.
A reasonable smoothie will bring people in the door. A high priced one will be yet another in a long list of fiascos by the company in the past year and a half.
Listening to Schultz describe the drinks as “visually beautiful,” one can only be wary of its pricing. Howard, if I am getting a smoothie to go out in the 90 degree summer heat, its “visual beauty” will last 3 to 4 minutes. What will matter far more when it comes to the purchasing decision will be the price because if you think the “competition” will not come up with something to compete at a fraction of what you will want to charge, you are yet again dreaming.
Starbucks has an opportunity here, I hope for shareholders sake they do not blow it…
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, none
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2:15 is the time today we find out about rates. Expect either no change or a 25 point cut. What in all reality matters more is what is said.
Food and oil prices have risen substantially and even though are not included in the inflation (CPI) measurement, the Fed has noticed. How then can we combat the price increase? Easily. Strengthen the dollar.
How can we strengthen the dollar? Stop the decline in interest rates is the easiest and fastest way. We could also require congress stop running deficits and and actually do something about social security and medicare. But since neither of those is likely to happen anytime soon, we must turn to the Fed.
The last vote to lower rates was an 8-2 and for the first time, the worry over both thedollar and inflation made their way into the discussion. For this reason, one has to think that given the stability is equity prices since the last meeting and the rapid increase in commodity prices during the same time frame, the later must now be given prominence in the decision making process.
The most recent auction for April at the Fed went off at higher rates than the previous one, the first such rise since they began.
Expect the statement to say that the “risks to growth while still present have moderated” and that “commodity prices are of increasing concern”.
Doing nothing here will not hurt growth from an interest rate perspective and will actually help the economy and any strength in the dollar ought to lead to an immediate and perhaps dramatic decline in commodity prices.
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Upgrades
Smith & Wesson (SWHC)- Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Pali Research Neutral » Buy
Microchip (MCHP)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
First Horizon (FHN)- Punk, Ziegel & Co Mkt Perform » Buy
Wrigley (WWY)- Bernstein Underperform » Mkt Perform
First Horizon (FHN)- Sandler O’Neill Sell » Hold
Centene (CNC)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Amerigroup (AGP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Buenaventura SA (BVN)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
American Electric (AEP)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Wachovia (WB)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Momenta Pharma (MNTA)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Downgrades
Fresh Del Monte (FDP)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Idenix Pharma (IDIX)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Flushing Fin (FFIC)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Digi Intl (DGII)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Outperform » Market Perform
Universal Health (UHS)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Sina (SINA)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Nelnet (NNI)- Sandler O’Neill Buy » Hold
PrivateBancorp (PVTB)- Sandler O’Neill Hold » Sell
Cott (COT)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Intevac (IVAC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
TriZetto Group (TZIX)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Microtune (TUNE)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Microtune (TUNE)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Potash (POT)- RBC Capital Mkts Top Pick » Outperform
Norsk Hydro (NHYDY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Silicom Limited (SILC)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Tenet Healthcare (THC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Calpine (CPN)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Sunoco (SUN)- Soleil Buy » Hold
Wrigley (WWY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
CB Richard Ellis (CBG)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Symantec (SYMC)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
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Upgrades
Smith & Wesson (SWHC)- Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Pali Research Neutral » Buy
Microchip (MCHP)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Buy
First Horizon (FHN)- Punk, Ziegel & Co Mkt Perform » Buy
Wrigley (WWY)- Bernstein Underperform » Mkt Perform
First Horizon (FHN)- Sandler O’Neill Sell » Hold
Centene (CNC)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Amerigroup (AGP)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Buenaventura SA (BVN)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
American Electric (AEP)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Wachovia (WB)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Momenta Pharma (MNTA)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Downgrades
Fresh Del Monte (FDP)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Idenix Pharma (IDIX)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Flushing Fin (FFIC)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Digi Intl (DGII)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Outperform » Market Perform
Universal Health (UHS)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
Sina (SINA)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Nelnet (NNI)- Sandler O’Neill Buy » Hold
PrivateBancorp (PVTB)- Sandler O’Neill Hold » Sell
Cott (COT)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Intevac (IVAC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
TriZetto Group (TZIX)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Microtune (TUNE)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Microtune (TUNE)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Potash (POT)- RBC Capital Mkts Top Pick » Outperform
Norsk Hydro (NHYDY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Silicom Limited (SILC)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Tenet Healthcare (THC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Calpine (CPN)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Sunoco (SUN)- Soleil Buy » Hold
Wrigley (WWY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
CB Richard Ellis (CBG)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Symantec (SYMC)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
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Wednesday’s Picks
Karen Finerman recommends Altria (MO) $20.24 on the dip.
Pete Najarian prefers Biogen (BIIB0 $61.33 also on the dip.
For the second day in a row Guy Adami recommends shorting the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $60.65
Jeff Macke thinks Citigroup (C) $26.32 is a sell.
Tuesday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommends the United States Oil Fund (USO) $95.69 Close $92.9 LOSS
Karen Finerman prefers Kasier Aluminum (KALU) $68.35 Close $68.04 LOSS
Guy Adami likes betting against the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $60.35 with a tight stop. Close $60.65 GAIN
Tim Seymour suggests shorting Petrobras (PBR) $122.76 Close $116.79 GAIN
2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 32-23\4-1
Tim Seymore= 16-12
Guy Adami= 32-28
Pete Najarian= 34-24
Karen Finerman= 25-27-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1
2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
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How can you have a “public nuisance” when the nuisance itself is virtually eradicated? That must be the question Sherwin Williams (SHW), NL Industires(NL) and the other defendants must be shaking their heads asking themselves.
Jane Genova reports:
“Actually, as LEGAL NEWSLINE’s John O’Brien notes, new cases have been steadily and significantly plummeting over the past 10 years. Ironically, it was about that time that the lead paint public nuisance lawsuit activity began in RI. According to the 2007 statistics recently released from the RI Department of Health, only 1.3 percent of children being tested in the state had in their blood elevated levels of lead. That represents a 22 percent reduction from 2006. Back in 1998, 6.6 percent of children tested had elevated levels of lead in their blood (80% decline).
These figures contradict the plaintiff’s asserting during RI II that the progress on reducing childhood lead poisoning had reached a plateau and would not decline further without intervention. The form that intervention should take, the plaintiff contended, was abatement of lead in every residence where it was still present.”
Genova continues, “O’Brien reports that the RI Attorney General’s office, which put RI I and RI II in play, had no comment. Could this saga be renamed: The Case of the Vanishing Public Nuisance?”
The whole basis for the case in RI was that the decline of lead in children had stopped and billions were needed to further decrease it. Yet, the State’s own numbers illustrate the fallacy of the very argument they based their case on. Let’s also not forget that this point is one of the issues on appeal, that the RI Attorney General withheld these numbers from the initial trial as they contradicted his claims. AG Lynch is facing a contempt charge for his actions.
The litigation in RI has smelled worse than the bay at low tide in summer since the beginning.
What one has to wonder is that with all empirical evidence in direct opposition to the claims the State is making, why hasn’t the case been dropped? What is the RISC even considering? A graceful exit for Judge Silverstein, who did more for the case that the RI AG did by directing the jury’s verdict?
What is happening now is akin to the State claiming they need tougher tax enforcement laws because of declining tax revenues while at the same time ignoring those very revenues are increasing. How can RI in good conscious claim they need billions to fight lead poisoning because it has stopped decline when the reality is the decline, far from stopping is actually still declining dramatically? How?
Of those still being afflicted, hoe many are due to toy recalls in the past year?
Ohio, Missouri and NJ have already decided the issue in court and unlike RI ,seem to be capable of common sense and have the ability to follow the law.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW, None
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Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) turned in a fantastic quarter this morning. Highlights..
— Net sales and other operating income increased 64% to $18.7 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 and 51% or $16.2 billion for the nine months.
— Third quarter segment operating profit increased 54% to $913 million from $593 million last year.
— Oilseeds Processing operating profit increased $52 million for the quarter and $119 million for the nine months as global demand for protein and oil improved.
— Corn Processing operating profit decreased $79 million for the quarter and $177 million for the nine months due principally to higher net corn costs.
— Agricultural Services operating profit increased $320 million for the quarter and $618 million for the nine months as highly volatile market conditions provided exceptional merchandising opportunities.
— Other segment operating profit increased due to improved margins and increased financial services income.
CEO Patricia Woertz said about proposed changes to the energy bill, “I actually find it sad and even a little ironic that this attack on biofuels is directed to the one alternative we have today. Biofuels are a real solution to a real problem. To retreat from biofuels is wrong. It’s foolish. It’s dangerous. It’s an empty gesture. It won’t fill anyone’s stomach. It won’t fill anyone’s gas tank,” she added.
She is right. Food price rises are due to demand and weather worldwide, not biofuels. Wheat prices are soaring not because of biofuels but because of demand in China and India for the commodity and poor harvests in Australia and Europe. Woertz, when she took over at ADM predicted the situation we are in.
She laid out the scenario then that as nations developed, the demand for protein based products would increase exponentially. Here excitement for taking the ADM job at the time was due to its position in the food chain for those products. She has been 100% accurate. A decrease in the use of corn in the US by eliminating the biofuel requirement would do nothing the quell demand for wheat or soy worldwide. Let’s be honest, America is still a net exported of corn and wheat. We can’t even use all of what we have.
All commodities are pegged to the dollar and this is the basis for the rise. As the dollar continues to decline in value, the cost of those commodities (corm ,wheat, soy, oil etc) rises. Should the dollar increase in value, the prices of them will drop. Both of these scenario’s have nothing to due with biofuels. The suddenly staggering cost of transporting food to markets due to high oil prices has more to do with increased food costs than biofuels.
Should we get rid of the 51 cent subsidy for ethanol? Don’t ask ADM, they do not receive it. Ask Exxon (XOM) and the refiners. They are the recipients of the tariff, not ethanol producers. It is technically a “blending credit” given to refiners for mixing ethanol in gas.
Why keep it? consider this, the ethanol blenders credit cost taxpayers about $3 billion last year. However, it reduced crop price supports by about $6 billion and our oil import bill by another $15 billion. In short, giving refiners an economic incentive to use more ethanol has a positive economic effect on our economy.
We also have to note that the $15 billion we save on our oil bill is $15 billion that stayed in the US and did not find it way to the Middle East.
As an investment, ADM’s fortunes have turned not on biofuels (Corn processing, which includes HFCS and ethanol was only 20% of profits in the most recent quarter), but from the world’s demand for food. That, will not change anytime soon and a very real argument can be made that the increases we have seen are only the beginning of what is to come.
More from today’s call later…
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM
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Another Thank You, Red Sox, Starbucks’ Music, Crime Pays
– Thanks for the mention.
– This is great
– Well this took way too long…
– Can you believe it? From thief to “consultant” in months..
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Another Thank You, Red Sox, Starbucks’ Music, Crime Pays
– Thanks for the mention.
– This is great
– Well this took way too long…
– Can you believe it? From thief to “consultant” in months..
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
Ever hear the saying “throw some $#%t against the wall and see what sticks”? Thus seems to be Blockbuster’s (BBI) current business plan.
After being late to the video by mail model, late to the box top set model, talking about turning their obsolete locations into Apple Stores (AAPL) like locations, and attempting a doomed from the start takeover of Circuit City (CC), Blockbuster is trying something else.
Now Blockbuster is in talks about taking a stake in the new premium TV channel to be launched by Viacom with Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF) and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer.
Ok. Haven’t we all come to the conclusion blockbuster doesn’t have the financial ability to complete the proposed Circuit city deal? How do they intend on doing this also? Have you ever seen a company run in so many seemingly disconnected directions at once?
This smacks of desperation. Blockbuster could survive and even prosper and compete with Netflix (NFLX) if they would only acknowledge what everyone but them seemingly understands, they need to close their stores. Should that happen, the cash save could possibly finance one or some of the shotgun like business moves they are contemplating. They cannot, however, keep them and do the others..
I guess the only thing left to do for them is to talk about a merger with Sprint (S)?
Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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If you believe management at USG (USG), the worst for housing looks to be over.
CEO William Foote recently said “The commercial market, which had remained relatively stable during the collapse of the housing market may have reached its peak. So our major market segments are weak, but any further declines are likely to be less severe than that which we’ve already experienced.
Said another way, we believe the drama is over and it’s now about working through the bottom and getting back to a more growing environment. Indeed not all the news, though, I have to share is bad. There are some encouraging signs in the market…”
Also noted:
* The price decline in wall board prices has stopped and the Q1 increase they saw was the first in “more than 15 months”.
* The first price increase was February 15th and that was announced at 10% increase and then followed up with an April 7th increase of 10%.
* Wallboard production volume in Q1 was up slightly from the fourth quarter of 2007.
Foot also said:
“Yes, the fundamentals of new housing [inaudible] and its a pretty, our sense is refining a bottom we haven’t called it yet, I mean it’s sort of function of what the broader real economy and the capital markets do. But it’s feeling like that or you saw them all starts number and it was a little bit below expectation. And so, we were just long the bottom here. But I don’t think, we haven’t changed our view of the aggregate market opportunity this year and although let’s say, it seems to be sort of as I said in my opening comments, we think the drama is over and just sort of pumping along here and importantly [ph] in the next year. Because we have worked to this inventory and so homes but the worst news is behind us just the matter of… with this bottom.”
If you are asking about housing, ignore the builders. Their individual results are irrelevant as the multitude of factors going into them distort their actual meaning. USG is a far better gauge. No matter what is being built by whom, they need USG products.
Foote and Co. have a far better take on the situation as a whole than a DR Horton (DHI) or Centex (CTX) do individually. Based on what they are saying, there is light at the end of this tunnel. It may be a way off, but there is light.
Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Upgrades
Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
STEC Inc (STEC)- B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Cray (CRAY)- Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
MCG Capital (MCGC)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
National City (NCC)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
US Airways (LCC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Masimo (MASI)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Marvell (MRVL)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
FirstFed Financial (FED)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
Credit Suisse (CS)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Petro-Canada (PCZ)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Big Lots (BIG)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Altera (ALTR)- Charter Equity Mkt Perform » Buy
LM Ericsson (ERIC)- Charter Equity Mkt Underperform » Mkt Perform
Downgrades
Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM)- Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
bebe stores (BEBE)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Gulfport Energy (GPOR)- Dahlman Rose Buy » Hold
Chemed (CHE)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Scotiabank (BNS)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
McMoRan Expl (MMR)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
American Intl (AIG)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
UAL Corp. (UAUA)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Continental Air (CAL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Underperform
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Noble Corp (NE)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
bebe stores (BEBE)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Sealy (ZZ)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Goodyear Tire (GT)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Cash America (CSH)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Kohl’s (KSS)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Northern Trust (NTRS)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
LM Ericsson (ERIC)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Shire Pharm (SHPGY)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Chartered Semi (CHRT)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
MB Financial (MBFI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Weingarten Realty (WRI)- UBS Neutral » Sell
Sirtris Pharma (SIRT)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
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Upgrades
Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
STEC Inc (STEC)- B. Riley & Co Neutral » Buy
Cray (CRAY)- Northland Securities Market Perform » Outperform
MCG Capital (MCGC)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
National City (NCC)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
US Airways (LCC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Masimo (MASI)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Marvell (MRVL)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
FirstFed Financial (FED)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform
Credit Suisse (CS)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Petro-Canada (PCZ)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Big Lots (BIG)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Altera (ALTR)- Charter Equity Mkt Perform » Buy
LM Ericsson (ERIC)- Charter Equity Mkt Underperform » Mkt Perform
Downgrades
Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM)- Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
bebe stores (BEBE)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Gulfport Energy (GPOR)- Dahlman Rose Buy » Hold
Chemed (CHE)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Scotiabank (BNS)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
McMoRan Expl (MMR)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
American Intl (AIG)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
UAL Corp. (UAUA)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Continental Air (CAL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Underperform
Williams-Sonoma (WSM)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Noble Corp (NE)- Stanford Research Buy » Hold
bebe stores (BEBE)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Sealy (ZZ)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Goodyear Tire (GT)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Cash America (CSH)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Kohl’s (KSS)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Northern Trust (NTRS)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
LM Ericsson (ERIC)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Shire Pharm (SHPGY)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Chartered Semi (CHRT)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
MB Financial (MBFI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Weingarten Realty (WRI)- UBS Neutral » Sell
Sirtris Pharma (SIRT)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
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Tuesday’s Picks
Jeff Macke recommends the United States Oil Fund (USO) $95.69
Karen Finerman prefers Kasier Aluminum (KALU) $68.35
Guy Adami likes betting against the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $60.35 with a tight stop.
Tim Seymour suggests shorting Petrobras (PBR) $122.76
Monday’s Results
None
2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 32-23-1
Tim Seymore= 15-12
Guy Adami= 31-28
Pete Najarian= 34-24
Karen Finerman= 25-26-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1
2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
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