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Phillip Morris Int. Tender Offer: Just How Dumb Does TRC Capital Think We Are??!!!??

I had to read this three times before I could actually believe these clown are serious. You will find the man who made the offer’s contact info at the end.

Philip Morris International (PM) has been notified of an unsolicited “mini-tender offer” by TRC Capital Corporation to purchase up to 2.0 million shares, or approximately 0.09%, of Philip Morris International stock for $49.25 per share.

OK. Let’s just assume that is not a 3.2% DISCOUNT to the price I could sell it in the market today. Let’s also assume we are not looking at 15% to 20% EPS growth in the future. Let’s also forget that there is no multi-billion dollar buyback being exercised by the company as I write. While we are at it, we should also ignore that it is a market leader (and growing) on a massive international stage. Of course we also need to eliminate the fact based on current EPS the stocks trades at 15 times earnings which essentially is a discount to it growth rate.

What is maddening is just how stupid they think PM investors are? We have waited for years for this spin from Altria (MO) and now they actually think we are going to plop our shares over to them at a discount to current prices?

You may contact the man who made the offer, TRC Capital Corporation Lorne H. Albaum CEO (416) 304-1932 ext.223, and tell him yourself “I got your tender offer right here pal!”.

Here is a brief description of the company. The fact he made the offer means he thinks the price is going higher. He is just trying to take advantage of investor who may be confused by the “mini-offer” and think the company may be sold.

I spoke to Mr. Albaum Friday. He claims he is going to hold shares for a “long term investment”. He also said that shares tendered by the 29th would become his then and he would have “2 or 3 days” to actually pay for them. When I said, “well, if the price stays the same as it is today, you could essentially sell all of the 2 million shares (assuming he gets them all) the 29th and never pay a penny and pocket $2 to $3 million dollars”. After an awkward pause, he stammered, “that is a possibility”.

Or, he could sell 1/2 and then keep the other half after which he would have paid nothing for them. When I asked if he was going to keep all the shares he said “he would have to look at that depending how much capital was at risk”. Short answer? No.

He said the offer is made for people who own “10 to 12 shares and the offer may pocket them more money than paying a broker a commission to sell them”. Well, Etrade (ETFC) charges me $9.99 a trade and even at that, I come out ahead of Mr. Albaum’s price if I only had 10 shares. I asked him what other scenario’s there were and he said “numerous” but did not give any.

If you are contacted about this please ignore it.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long PM, MO, None

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Recession?

Here is an interesting video..

Can we be in a recession with the economy growing and historically low 5% unemployment? Maybe since we have the inexplicable need to label things we can call it a “sluggession”?

Just because it is not what we want does not mean it is bad….

Oh.. yea… removing the gas tax? Stupid…

Want to get off oil? Double it..

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Pickens Interview: (CNQ),(SU),(CHK),(SD)

I found this in my daily travels around the web and had to share it.

T. Boone is one of the best interviews out there as he pulls no punches, admits to being wrong (the few times he actually is) and explains his thoughts very clearly.

Mentioned was Canadian Oil Sands (CNQ), Suncor (SU), Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and SandRidge (SD)

The interview is 35 minutes long and you can hear it here.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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SWF’s Holding Periods: (C),(UBS)

Now, this is a long term perspective..

In an interview recently on Bloomberg TV, Lee Kuan Yew the head of the Government of Singapore Investment corp. (GIC) said “We are buying into something that we intend to keep for the next two or three decades and grow with them.” He was talking about his recent $18 billion worth of investments in both Citigroup (C) and UBS (UBS).

He continued, “If there are other banks of the quality of the two that we bought into, with the promise and the capabilities and inherent capabilities to recover, we have got the liquidity to meet it, to make such an investment,”

Yew currently has 6% of the $300 billion in assets he has on hand invested in the two banks.

Why? Yew says both banks have good franchises and brands and GIC has a performance benchmark of 5 to 10 years. “Will there be another Swiss bank like UBS for wealth management? I doubt it, we doubt it, that is why we invested in it,” he said.

5 years from now we will look back at the current financial situation much like folks did in the mid 90’s after the 1990-1991 recession and the mess financials were in at the time.

The large banks will get stronger as the weak get flushed and their will be score on investors kicking themselves for not pulling the trigger “back then”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C, None

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SWF's Holding Periods: (C),(UBS)

Now, this is a long term perspective..

In an interview recently on Bloomberg TV, Lee Kuan Yew the head of the Government of Singapore Investment corp. (GIC) said “We are buying into something that we intend to keep for the next two or three decades and grow with them.” He was talking about his recent $18 billion worth of investments in both Citigroup (C) and UBS (UBS).

He continued, “If there are other banks of the quality of the two that we bought into, with the promise and the capabilities and inherent capabilities to recover, we have got the liquidity to meet it, to make such an investment,”

Yew currently has 6% of the $300 billion in assets he has on hand invested in the two banks.

Why? Yew says both banks have good franchises and brands and GIC has a performance benchmark of 5 to 10 years. “Will there be another Swiss bank like UBS for wealth management? I doubt it, we doubt it, that is why we invested in it,” he said.

5 years from now we will look back at the current financial situation much like folks did in the mid 90’s after the 1990-1991 recession and the mess financials were in at the time.

The large banks will get stronger as the weak get flushed and their will be score on investors kicking themselves for not pulling the trigger “back then”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C, None

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Friday's Links

Flip Blackberry, Icahn, Citigroup (C), $199

– Finally, this has been my only complaint with my Blackberry

– I can’t wait to read this

– People cannot get enough of these shares.

Could it be?

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Friday’s Links

Flip Blackberry, Icahn, Citigroup (C), $199

– Finally, this has been my only complaint with my Blackberry

– I can’t wait to read this

– People cannot get enough of these shares.

Could it be?

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
LHC Group (LHCG)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Colgate-Palmolive (CL)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Kinross Gold (KGC)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
O2Micro (OIIM)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
O2Micro (OIIM)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
B&G Foods (BGS)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Utd PanAm Fincl (UPFC)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Owens Corning (OC)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Dionex (DNEX)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Gold Reserve (GRZ)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Take-Two (TTWO)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Thomas & Betts (TNB)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
BP (BP)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
RehabCare (RHB)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Community Health (CYH)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Underweight
Network Equip (NWK)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Micros Systems (MCRS)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Gulfmark Offshore (GLF)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Neutral
PharmaNet Devlpmt (PDGI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
PharmaNet Devlpmt (PDGI)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
CB&I (CBI)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Penn Virginia (PVA)- RBC Capital Mkts Top Pick » Outperform
IRobot (IRBT)- Jesup & Lamont Buy » Neutral
Bois D Arc Energy (BDE)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Gold Reserve (GRZ)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Endo Pharm (ENDP)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Annaly Mortgage (NLY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
YUM! Brands (YUM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Hovnanian Entrpr (HOV)- UBS Neutral » Sell
First Solar (FSLR)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform

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Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
LHC Group (LHCG)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Colgate-Palmolive (CL)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Kinross Gold (KGC)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
O2Micro (OIIM)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
O2Micro (OIIM)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
B&G Foods (BGS)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Utd PanAm Fincl (UPFC)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Owens Corning (OC)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Dionex (DNEX)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Gold Reserve (GRZ)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Take-Two (TTWO)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Thomas & Betts (TNB)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
BP (BP)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
RehabCare (RHB)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Community Health (CYH)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Underweight
Network Equip (NWK)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Micros Systems (MCRS)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Gulfmark Offshore (GLF)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Neutral
PharmaNet Devlpmt (PDGI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
PharmaNet Devlpmt (PDGI)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
CB&I (CBI)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Penn Virginia (PVA)- RBC Capital Mkts Top Pick » Outperform
IRobot (IRBT)- Jesup & Lamont Buy » Neutral
Bois D Arc Energy (BDE)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Gold Reserve (GRZ)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Endo Pharm (ENDP)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Annaly Mortgage (NLY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
YUM! Brands (YUM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Hovnanian Entrpr (HOV)- UBS Neutral » Sell
First Solar (FSLR)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Picks
Guy Adami likes Cisco (CSCO) $26.67

Karen Finerman prefers Comverse Technology (CMVT) $17.56

Pete Najaraian recommends American Express (AXP) 51.33 on a pull back.

Jeff Macke suggests shorting the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $59.82

Thursday’s Results
Guy Adami likes Cisco (CSCO) $25.64 Close $26.67 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers Citigroup (C) $25.27 Close $25.99 GAIN

Pete Najarian recommends Chesapeake (CHK) $51.7 Close $50.93 LOSS

Jeff Macke thinks Starbucks (SBUX) $16.23 is a sell. Close $16.65 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 33-25-1
Tim Seymore= 16-12
Guy Adami= 33-29
Pete Najarian= 34-26
Karen Finerman= 26-28-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Portfolio

I have decided to use Google to track the portfolio as the way I was doing it was not accounting for items like the Phillip Morris International (PM) split from Altria (MO).

I will ad other features as I am able.

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Thursday’s Links

Miley, Obama, Weitz, iPhone v Blackberry

– Agreed, Mr. Friedman nails it here

– Too little too late. You had your chance and blew it. This rings hollow

– Weitz is one of the great one. It bears listening to what he says

10 Reasons the iPhone is NOT a Blackberry

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Thursday's Links

Miley, Obama, Weitz, iPhone v Blackberry

– Agreed, Mr. Friedman nails it here

– Too little too late. You had your chance and blew it. This rings hollow

– Weitz is one of the great one. It bears listening to what he says

10 Reasons the iPhone is NOT a Blackberry

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Now Home Depot (HD) Slowing Down Expansion

Just a day after Starbucks (SBUX)announced plans to curb growth, Home Depot (HD) finally follows suit.

Home Depot announced it will no longer pursue the opening of about 50 U.S. stores that have been in planning. New store capital spending will be reduced by approximately $1 billion over the next three years. Total capital spending for the current fiscal year is projected to be about $2.3 billion, down from $3.6 billion last year. Also announced were the closing of 15 underperforming U.S. stores that do not meet the Company’s targeted returns.

Home Depot reiterated that its earnings per share from continuing operations are expected to decline by 19-24% for fiscal 2008.

This comes on the heals of the announcement last month of it was getting rid of the “HR Manager” position at each store in favor of a more regional model.

Home Depot needed to do this and like the HR move, one has to wonder “what took so long?”. For years Home Depot has needed to invest more capital in its dingy locations as it has been consistently losing market share in almost every sales category to the cleaner, brighter Lowe’s (LOW) chain.

The savings from these closing ought to go directly into store remodels. If they don’t, while HD will see an improvement when the economy improves, it will pale in comparison to what investors in Lowe’s will see. The desertion of shoppers from HD to Lowe’s will not change just because the housing market does. It will only change when HD gives them a reason to go back.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Starbucks (SBUX): Plans Have Potential

Based on news reports, Starbucks may just finally be seeing reality.

Starbucks (SBUX) reported net income for the second quarter of $108.7 million or $0.15 per share, compared to $150.8 million or $0.19 per share for the year-ago quarter or $208.1 million or $0.28 per share. Operating income for the second quarter fell 26% to $178.2 million or 7.1% of revenue from to $241.0 million or 10.7% of revenue in the prior year. Decreased consumer traffic resulted in a mid-single-digit decline in U.S. same-store sales.

Now, most of knew this was coming no matter how long management denied it both to themselves and in public. The question is, “what are you going to do about it”?

For a while I have been saying an ax needed to be taken to expansion plans. It seems management may finally be acquiescing.

Management lowered U.S. store opening targets for fiscal 2008 to about 1,020 net new stores from its previously lowered target of 1,175. International store openings are expected to remain as previously announced at 975 stores. The company still expects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2008 to be about $1.1 billion.

Here is the good part. They then said they plan to open significantly fewer new stores in the U.S. over the 2009 to 2011 period to less than 400 net new stores per year. However, they plan to continue to accelerate the International unit expansion, targeting net new store openings of 1,050 in 2009, 1,150 in 2010, and 1,300 in 2011. They said total store count will be about 21,500 stores by the end of fiscal 2011, with its international presence growing from about 30% to over 40%.

This, in conjunction with the new drinks planned are steps in the right direction, if executed properly.

Does it mean shares are a buy? No. If the new drinks are $5 a pop they will flop and more pain is in store. If the economy stays flat and Starbucks rigidly sticks to US expansion and pricing plans, more negative stores comps are coming.

At least they are acknowledging the need to change. But, acknowledging it and actually executing it properly are two very different things. Based on the past year, proof is needed before investing.

If Schultz wants to be the high priced alternative in the market, fine, just do not promise investors 18% EPS growth in the current environment. It gives people the impression either you do not know what is going on out there are are lying. Neither is a good one.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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