A value investing site launched in Jan 2007

Author: ToddSullivan

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 2, 2008

Upgrades
LHC Group (LHCG)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Colgate-Palmolive (CL)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Kinross Gold (KGC)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
O2Micro (OIIM)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
O2Micro (OIIM)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
B&G Foods (BGS)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Utd PanAm Fincl (UPFC)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Owens Corning (OC)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Dionex (DNEX)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Gold Reserve (GRZ)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Take-Two (TTWO)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Thomas & Betts (TNB)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
BP (BP)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
RehabCare (RHB)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Community Health (CYH)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Underweight
Network Equip (NWK)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Micros Systems (MCRS)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Gulfmark Offshore (GLF)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Neutral
PharmaNet Devlpmt (PDGI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
PharmaNet Devlpmt (PDGI)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
CB&I (CBI)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Penn Virginia (PVA)- RBC Capital Mkts Top Pick » Outperform
IRobot (IRBT)- Jesup & Lamont Buy » Neutral
Bois D Arc Energy (BDE)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Gold Reserve (GRZ)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Endo Pharm (ENDP)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Annaly Mortgage (NLY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
YUM! Brands (YUM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Hovnanian Entrpr (HOV)- UBS Neutral » Sell
First Solar (FSLR)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform

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Articles

Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 2, 2008

Upgrades
LHC Group (LHCG)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Colgate-Palmolive (CL)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Kinross Gold (KGC)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
O2Micro (OIIM)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
O2Micro (OIIM)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
B&G Foods (BGS)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Utd PanAm Fincl (UPFC)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Owens Corning (OC)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Dionex (DNEX)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Gold Reserve (GRZ)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Underperform
Take-Two (TTWO)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Thomas & Betts (TNB)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
BP (BP)- HSBC Securities Overweight » Neutral
RehabCare (RHB)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Community Health (CYH)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Underweight
Network Equip (NWK)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Micros Systems (MCRS)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Gulfmark Offshore (GLF)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Neutral
PharmaNet Devlpmt (PDGI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
PharmaNet Devlpmt (PDGI)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
CB&I (CBI)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Penn Virginia (PVA)- RBC Capital Mkts Top Pick » Outperform
IRobot (IRBT)- Jesup & Lamont Buy » Neutral
Bois D Arc Energy (BDE)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Gold Reserve (GRZ)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Endo Pharm (ENDP)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Annaly Mortgage (NLY)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
YUM! Brands (YUM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Hovnanian Entrpr (HOV)- UBS Neutral » Sell
First Solar (FSLR)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform

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Articles

"Fast Money" for Friday

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 1, 2008

Friday’s Picks
Guy Adami likes Cisco (CSCO) $26.67

Karen Finerman prefers Comverse Technology (CMVT) $17.56

Pete Najaraian recommends American Express (AXP) 51.33 on a pull back.

Jeff Macke suggests shorting the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $59.82

Thursday’s Results
Guy Adami likes Cisco (CSCO) $25.64 Close $26.67 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers Citigroup (C) $25.27 Close $25.99 GAIN

Pete Najarian recommends Chesapeake (CHK) $51.7 Close $50.93 LOSS

Jeff Macke thinks Starbucks (SBUX) $16.23 is a sell. Close $16.65 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 33-25-1
Tim Seymore= 16-12
Guy Adami= 33-29
Pete Najarian= 34-26
Karen Finerman= 26-28-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Portfolio

I have decided to use Google to track the portfolio as the way I was doing it was not accounting for items like the Phillip Morris International (PM) split from Altria (MO).

I will ad other features as I am able.

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Thursday’s Links

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 1, 2008

Miley, Obama, Weitz, iPhone v Blackberry

– Agreed, Mr. Friedman nails it here

– Too little too late. You had your chance and blew it. This rings hollow

– Weitz is one of the great one. It bears listening to what he says

– 10 Reasons the iPhone is NOT a Blackberry

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Thursday's Links

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 1, 2008

Miley, Obama, Weitz, iPhone v Blackberry

– Agreed, Mr. Friedman nails it here

– Too little too late. You had your chance and blew it. This rings hollow

– Weitz is one of the great one. It bears listening to what he says

– 10 Reasons the iPhone is NOT a Blackberry

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Now Home Depot (HD) Slowing Down Expansion

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 1, 2008

Just a day after Starbucks (SBUX)announced plans to curb growth, Home Depot (HD) finally follows suit.

Home Depot announced it will no longer pursue the opening of about 50 U.S. stores that have been in planning. New store capital spending will be reduced by approximately $1 billion over the next three years. Total capital spending for the current fiscal year is projected to be about $2.3 billion, down from $3.6 billion last year. Also announced were the closing of 15 underperforming U.S. stores that do not meet the Company’s targeted returns.

Home Depot reiterated that its earnings per share from continuing operations are expected to decline by 19-24% for fiscal 2008.

This comes on the heals of the announcement last month of it was getting rid of the “HR Manager” position at each store in favor of a more regional model.

Home Depot needed to do this and like the HR move, one has to wonder “what took so long?”. For years Home Depot has needed to invest more capital in its dingy locations as it has been consistently losing market share in almost every sales category to the cleaner, brighter Lowe’s (LOW) chain.

The savings from these closing ought to go directly into store remodels. If they don’t, while HD will see an improvement when the economy improves, it will pale in comparison to what investors in Lowe’s will see. The desertion of shoppers from HD to Lowe’s will not change just because the housing market does. It will only change when HD gives them a reason to go back.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Starbucks (SBUX): Plans Have Potential

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 1, 2008
1 Comment on Starbucks (SBUX): Plans Have Potential

Based on news reports, Starbucks may just finally be seeing reality.

Starbucks (SBUX) reported net income for the second quarter of $108.7 million or $0.15 per share, compared to $150.8 million or $0.19 per share for the year-ago quarter or $208.1 million or $0.28 per share. Operating income for the second quarter fell 26% to $178.2 million or 7.1% of revenue from to $241.0 million or 10.7% of revenue in the prior year. Decreased consumer traffic resulted in a mid-single-digit decline in U.S. same-store sales.

Now, most of knew this was coming no matter how long management denied it both to themselves and in public. The question is, “what are you going to do about it”?

For a while I have been saying an ax needed to be taken to expansion plans. It seems management may finally be acquiescing.

Management lowered U.S. store opening targets for fiscal 2008 to about 1,020 net new stores from its previously lowered target of 1,175. International store openings are expected to remain as previously announced at 975 stores. The company still expects capital expenditures for fiscal year 2008 to be about $1.1 billion.

Here is the good part. They then said they plan to open significantly fewer new stores in the U.S. over the 2009 to 2011 period to less than 400 net new stores per year. However, they plan to continue to accelerate the International unit expansion, targeting net new store openings of 1,050 in 2009, 1,150 in 2010, and 1,300 in 2011. They said total store count will be about 21,500 stores by the end of fiscal 2011, with its international presence growing from about 30% to over 40%.

This, in conjunction with the new drinks planned are steps in the right direction, if executed properly.

Does it mean shares are a buy? No. If the new drinks are $5 a pop they will flop and more pain is in store. If the economy stays flat and Starbucks rigidly sticks to US expansion and pricing plans, more negative stores comps are coming.

At least they are acknowledging the need to change. But, acknowledging it and actually executing it properly are two very different things. Based on the past year, proof is needed before investing.

If Schultz wants to be the high priced alternative in the market, fine, just do not promise investors 18% EPS growth in the current environment. It gives people the impression either you do not know what is going on out there are are lying. Neither is a good one.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 1, 2008

Upgrades
Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB)- Sterne Agee Hold » Buy
Northwest Banc (NWSB)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Sell » Neutral
Beckman Coulter (BEC)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Rogers Comms (RCI)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Align Tech (ALGN)- Barrington Research Underperform » Mkt Perform
Arris (ARRS)- CL King Accumulate » Strong Buy
G&K Svcs (GKSR)- Needham Hold » Buy
Dreamworks Animation (DWA)- Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
SI International (SINT)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
CBS Corp (CBS)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Ruby Tuesday (RT)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
LMI Aerospace (LMIA)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Rogers Comms (RCI)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
Vimicro (VIMC)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Angiotech Pharm (ANPI)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Smith & Nephew (SNN)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Silver Wheaton (SLW)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
Denny’s (DENN)- Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy
Ritchie Bros. (RBA)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
James River Coal (JRCC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
BP (BP)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
France Telecom (FTE)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
The Knot (KNOT)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Gildan Activewear (GIL)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
QLogic (QLGC)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Hutchinson (HTCH)- Caris & Company Average » Below Average
Cognex (CGNX)- Needham Strong Buy » Buy
T. Rowe Price (TROW)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Monolithic Power (MPWR)- Needham Strong Buy » Buy
Heidrick & Struggles (HSII)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
SAVVIS Comm (SVVS)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Valero Energy (VLO)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
FEI Company (FEIC)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
SAVVIS Comm (SVVS)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Thornburg Mortg (TMA)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Underperform
Corel (CREL)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Martha Stewart (MSO)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Health Care Ppty (HCP)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
SAVVIS Comm (SVVS)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Gorman-Rupp Company (GRC)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Owens & Minor (OMI)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
CBS Corp (CBS)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Lear (LEA)- Citigroup Buy » Hold $39 » $34
Chunghwa Telecom (CHT)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
UNUMProvident (UNM)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
MEMC Elec (WFR)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Health Care Ppty (HCP)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold

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Articles

Thursday's Upgrades and Downgrades

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date May 1, 2008

Upgrades
Berkshire Hills Bancorp (BHLB)- Sterne Agee Hold » Buy
Northwest Banc (NWSB)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Sell » Neutral
Beckman Coulter (BEC)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Rogers Comms (RCI)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Align Tech (ALGN)- Barrington Research Underperform » Mkt Perform
Arris (ARRS)- CL King Accumulate » Strong Buy
G&K Svcs (GKSR)- Needham Hold » Buy
Dreamworks Animation (DWA)- Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
SI International (SINT)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
CBS Corp (CBS)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Ruby Tuesday (RT)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)- Cowen & Co Neutral » Outperform
LMI Aerospace (LMIA)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Rogers Comms (RCI)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)- HSBC Securities Underweight » Neutral
Vimicro (VIMC)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Angiotech Pharm (ANPI)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Smith & Nephew (SNN)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Silver Wheaton (SLW)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Underperform » Sector Perform
Denny’s (DENN)- Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy
Ritchie Bros. (RBA)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
James River Coal (JRCC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
BP (BP)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
France Telecom (FTE)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
The Knot (KNOT)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Gildan Activewear (GIL)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
QLogic (QLGC)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Hutchinson (HTCH)- Caris & Company Average » Below Average
Cognex (CGNX)- Needham Strong Buy » Buy
T. Rowe Price (TROW)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Monolithic Power (MPWR)- Needham Strong Buy » Buy
Heidrick & Struggles (HSII)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
SAVVIS Comm (SVVS)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Valero Energy (VLO)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
FEI Company (FEIC)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
SAVVIS Comm (SVVS)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Thornburg Mortg (TMA)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Underperform
Corel (CREL)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Martha Stewart (MSO)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)- JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Health Care Ppty (HCP)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Sohu.com (SOHU)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
SAVVIS Comm (SVVS)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Gorman-Rupp Company (GRC)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Owens & Minor (OMI)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
CBS Corp (CBS)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Lear (LEA)- Citigroup Buy » Hold $39 » $34
Chunghwa Telecom (CHT)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
UNUMProvident (UNM)- Keefe Bruyette Outperform » Mkt Perform
MEMC Elec (WFR)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Health Care Ppty (HCP)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold

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Articles

"Fast Money" for Thursday

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date April 30, 2008

Thursday’s Picks
Guy Adami likes Cisco (CSCO) $25.64

Karen Finerman prefers Citigroup (C) $25.27

Pete Najarian recommends Chesapeake (CHK) $51.7

Jeff Macke thinks Starbucks (SBUX) $16.23 is a sell.

Wednesday’s Results
Karen Finerman recommends Altria (MO) $20.24 on the dip. Close $20 LOSS

Pete Najarian prefers Biogen (BIIB) $61.33 also on the dip.Close $60.69 LOSS

For the second day in a row Guy Adami recommends shorting the Dow with Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $60.65 Close $60.64 LOSS

Jeff Macke thinks Citigroup (C) $26.32 is a sell. Close $25.28 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 33-24-1
Tim Seymore= 16-12
Guy Adami= 32-29
Pete Najarian= 34-25
Karen Finerman= 25-28-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Lampert Adds an Additional 1 million AutoNation Shares

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date April 30, 2008

Edie Lampert has once again increased his stake in autoNation (AN)

He now owns 67.3 million shares after purchasing an additional 1.1 million shares on 4/29.

He now owns 37.6% of the shares

I recently wrote about the company here.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Fed Cuts One Last Time

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date April 30, 2008

The statement from Bernanke & co. was short and sweet.
Here it is:

“The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent.

Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Although readings on core inflation have improved somewhat, energy and other commodity prices have increased, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen in recent months. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate risks to economic activity. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 2-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, and San Francisco.”

This is a change from the last statement when it “the outlook for economic activity has weakened further”. This was says “remains weak”. The translation is that as far as economic activity is concerned, there has not been further weakening since the last meeting.

Regarding inflation, the prior meeting said “uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased” and today’s says it is “high”.

Those are subtle but important changes as it signals the predominant risk now is tilting towards increasing inflation rather than decreasing growth.

Barring a shock to the system, we have seen to last rate cut for the foreseeable future.

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US GDP Grew in Q1: Were is that Recession?

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date April 30, 2008
3 Comments on US GDP Grew in Q1: Were is that Recession?

Far from a recession, the economy is still growing…

The U.S. Commerce Department said the economy grew at an annual rate of 0.6% in the first three months of the year, in an initial estimate of gross domestic product for the quarter. The growth matches that of 2007’s final period.

Housing hit the economy. Residential fixed investment dropped by 26.7%, reducing overall GDP by 1.23 percentage points. In short, GDP growth absent housing as an acceptable 1.8%.

Now, clearly financials like Citigroup (C), Wachovia (WB), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Bank of America (BAC) and their investors have suffered. If you are an investor in housing related stocks like Centex (CTX), USG (USG) and DR Horton (DRH) the last thing you want to hear is that the economy is not in recession. In your corner of the world it clearly is. However, while the economy as a whole is growing at a far from acceptable rate, it is STILL GROWING.

Even Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett jumped on the recession call yesterday saying we were already in one. I have to ask Warren on this one. He always says he does not invest on “macro forecasts” because they are never accurate. He also replies when asked about what is going to happen in the future “I have no idea”. My question then is, “why then is he making macro predictions and forecasts now?” To be honest, Warren is the greatest investor ever but he is on TV just way too much lately. What he said meant more when we heard from him occasionally, rather than weekly.

I feel bad for those making the treck out to Omaha this weekend for the annual meeting. What could they possibly hear from him he has not said at least 5 times in the scores of interviews he has done the past two months? I have done it in the past and it is a great time. But, we were hearing new stuff back then, not the rehash this years attendees will get..

Anyway, this quarters growth illustrates the strength of the economy. To take the massive hits from both housing and the credit markets and to be still expanding is quite impressive.

These numbers now push the odds of having an actual recession even lower than they were a month ago. In order to actually have a recession now we need the spring and summer numbers to contract. The need for this from the recession camp is facing strong headwinds as last years rate cuts begin to hit the system and $150 billion in stimulus checks start showing up on consumers doorsteps.

Should Bernake & Co. take steps today the strengthen the dollar, we can add lower energy and food prices to the list. Does this mean we jump to 2% to 3% growth this summer? No. It does mean we ought not see a negative number and given what has happened the last 12 months, that is just fine.

People were fond of saying Alan Greenspan engineered a “soft landing” when he was the head of the Fed. When this is all over, Bernanke ought to be credited with engineering a “fly by” in far more difficult circumstances.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C,WB ,None

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Wednesday’s Links

Post author By ToddSullivan
Post date April 30, 2008

Bio-fuels, Whitman, Amen Joe Ponzio, Wendy’s and Starbucks

– It is only a matter of time before a stunning breakthrough happens..

– Gotta love this guy

– The truest thing ever written

– Interesting when looking at the past one gets lessons for the future

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