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US Real GDP Regression Analysis

Before we get too depressed about the future, a reader reminds of where we have come from and of past difficulties.

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Reader Submits:

In the chart of the US Real GDP which covers the Great Depression period 1930-1939 we had 4yrs (1930-1933) of sub-zero growth but then swung to 4yrs of strong growth (1935-1937). I believe that this history is a useful guide to the resilience of the American economy in response to highly negative financial events of our own creation.

How this correlates to the market can be seen in the chart of the Dow Jones chart below spanning 1928-1935.(The BLACK ARROW represents the inauguration of FDR)

We do fix the problems and we do recover. Those who buy in the current market and can hold till recovery will most likely do quite well even without timing the bottom.

Lower Prices = Less Risk. In my opinion this is a time to be very bullish!

Personally, I think we have another leg down. I do not see a housing rebound in 2009 at all and until that begins to straighten out, I think we meander with risk to the downside. The reader does have a good point in those calling for demise of the US are wrong, period. We have faced worse time than this (it was worse when Reagan took office, 10% unemployment, 12.5 inflation, double digit interest rates) and come through just fine.

I still say avoid financials like the plague as gov’t bailouts come with a very steep price (massive shareholder dilution) and the future for many is very cloudy at best. If they do not know how to value what they hold, how can an investor.

Those looking 10 years down the road will look back on current conditions very favorably one day.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long USA
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Munger on Psychology of Human Misjudgement 1995

This is a Charlie Munger classic. For those who do not know Munger, he is essentially (for lack of a better term) Warren Buffett’s partner at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

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Munger on Psychology of Human Misjudgement 1995

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Academic Work charlie munger berkshire hathaway


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Thursday’s Links

Using Stops, Homework, 895 Promises, Contango

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– Andy Swan has a nice post about why these are a waste

– Always check your kids homework!!!

– Track Obama’s campaign promises here

– Market Folly tells us what it is and how it effects returns

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Wal-Mart’s Lee Scott on Charlie Rose

The first half of the piece deals with Steve Jobs health and Lee is the second half..

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AutoNation’s Mike Jackson Video and World Congress Presentation

Let’s put the noise aside. AutoNation (AN) and CarMax (KMX), a Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) holding are picking up market share daily as smaller dealerships close by the bucket-full. When auto buying resumes (it will, they do not last forever) both will profit handsomely as buyer will have fewer option to buy from.


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On CNBC

Mike Jackson CNBC 1-21-2008 from http://marccannon.vox.com/

On Bloomberg..

The following is a must see…

Jackson’s World Congress Presentation:

AutoNation’s Mike Jackson at World Congress

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Business Presentations & Slid lending Chrysler



Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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Apple = Starbucks & Whole Foods $$

When folks are flush, they will spend for status, but when things get tight and quality low cost competitors enter the market, buying habit change…fast. This also has nothing to do with Steve Jobs’ shareholder deception, what is happening now at Apple started last summer.

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So, the Apple (AAPL) nuts will send me more hate mail and call me names. Oh well…

Remember when WholeFoods (WFMI) was the only place in town to get organic food and Starbucks (SBUX) was the only place the get anything other than a standard cup of coffee? Remember? It seems like and eternity ago especially when I can get organic food at the 7-11, Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST), BJ’s (BJ) and every local supermarket and a cappuccino can be had at any one of a dozen local coffee houses, McDonalds (MCD) and Dunkin Donuts.

If WholeFood’s $5 a pound organic potato the best? Is Starbucks $6 cappuccino appreciably better than an offering from anyone else at a fraction of the price? No.

Is the iPhone ($199) that much better than Research in Motion’s (RIMM) Blackberry Bold or Storm that can be had for 1/2 the prices ($99 through discounts)? No

Is a Mac computer really worth 2x the amount I can get a similarly functional product from Dell (DELL) or Lenova? No.

Now for all the above, for the coffee devotee, the person searching for the “one of a kind” generic item and the computer lover who wants a top of the line item or a devoted Apple user, all of the above will continue to generates sales and profits from these folks.

But, for the “unwashed masses” (yours truly is one of them) that is not married to a brand, a cup, need a computer for basic functionality and does not need organic-hand-picked-free-trade-union-only beets, we will alway drift to the lower cost comparable item. The problem with the above three is that they lack an item for us.

The Blackberry Bold and the iPhone are both comparable items. Both have pro and cons vs each other and both have loyal followers that will tell you either is better. But for 1/2 the price, the Bold has the most important advantage over the iPhone.

I am reading Howard Lindzon’s upcoming book “The Wallstrip Edge “. For the record I am not a trader but the book is very good as it does force you to look at things a different way and it challenges “common knowledge”. Lindzon has been in the game for decades now and anytime you can get insight from someone as brutally honest as Howard, that has tremendous value. Enough about the book, I’ll have more when I publish the review next week.

As I read it I realize the trend in Apple is over like the others. Shareholders are not going to see a $180 stock price in the future and like the other two, a stable or declining price is more likely. The iPod was revolutionary and had such a lead on the others there was no answer (the real advantage was iTunes, not the player). The iPhone is a great product but was immediately matched by competitors that offer some things it doesn’t at a far lower price point. Unlike the iPod, there is no iTunes for the phone that makes using a competitor’s product impossible. Cell networks are as interchangeable as toilet paper thus the advantage the iPod has is not found on the iPhone. Now price rules.

With US sales down 24% in Q4, Apple is left with only more price cuts to stimulate sales. That will cut into margins and profits.

Are any of the above three going away? No. Are they in danger of losing money? Apple no, the others, for a while, yes. It does mean the glory days for the stock are over, unless they can tap back into the mass market that has left them. But that will require dramatic pricing alterations and all three up until this point have been painfully reluctant to do so. Starbucks and WholeFoods really have not significantly altered it and Apple only did so on the iPhone (from $599 to $399 to $199) after sales of the product ground to a pedestrian level and even at its current level, the phone is overpriced vs the market.

What’s worse is all three now have the reputation of “expensive”. That will be the hardest thing to overcome, convincing a newly thrifty bargain hunting consumer you are not what they say you are…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, none
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Wednesday’s Links

More Apple /Jobs / CNBC fallout, Cell Phones, CDS’s, Texas Oil

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– From the NY Times

– How could you not know your phone did this?

– A great explanation of them

– What a shift might mean

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Berkshire Buys 4.2 Million Burlington Northern Shares $$

Warren Buffett loves Burlington Northern (BNI) and now has 22% of the shares.

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Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) now controls 74,452,029 shares of the company after picking up over 4 million more between $61 and $62 a share 1/15.
SEC Filing


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Pershing Square Files 13D/A In Borders Group $$

The good news for shareholders is that Ackman is in this thing (Borders (BGP))for the long haul…

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From the filing:
As of January 16, 2009, as reflected in this Amendment No. 9, the Reporting Persons are reporting beneficial ownership on an aggregate basis of 25,297,880 shares of Common Stock (approximately 33.62% of the outstanding shares). This includes warrants covering 14,700,000 shares of Common Stock, which represents 9,550,000 warrants received on April 9, 2008 and 5,150,000 warrants received on October 1, 2008 (each, as previously disclosed). The Reporting Persons own cash settled, total return equity swaps covering 4,805,463 notional shares of Common Stock (as previously disclosed). The notional shares that underlie such swaps are not included in the totals set forth in the charts earlier in the Schedule 13D. The aggregate economic exposure of the Reporting Persons to shares of Common Stock, including the aggregate shares of Common Stock beneficially owned by the Reporting Persons plus the aggregate notional shares underlying such swaps, represents approximately 40% of the sum of the outstanding shares of Common Stock and the shares of Common Stock underlying such warrants.

Item 4. Purpose of Transaction

Item 4 is hereby supplemented, as follows:
On December 22, 2008, Pershing Square, certain of its affiliates and the Issuer entered into an agreement (the “First Amendment to the Senior Secured Credit Agreement”) to extend the deadline for repayment of the $42,500,000 senior secured term loan owed under the Credit Agreement by the Issuer to Pershing Square, from January 15, 2009 to February 16, 2009.

On December 22, 2008, Pershing Square and the Issuer entered into an agreement (the “Extension of Purchase Offer”) to extend Pershing Square’s backstop purchase offer on behalf of certain funds managed by Pershing Square, set forth in the Purchase Offer Letter, from January 15, 2009 to February 16, 2009. On January 16, 2009, Pershing Square and the Issuer further agreed to amend the Purchase Offer Letter (the “Amendment of Purchase Offer”), such that at the election of the Issuer and subject to certain terms and conditions, certain funds managed by Pershing Square will be obligated to purchase all, but not less than all, of the issued and outstanding capital stock of Paperchase Products Ltd. and its subsidiaries (together, “Paperchase”). In advance of the acquisition of Paperchase, the Issuer (or certain of its affiliates) will either acquire any issued and outstanding capital stock of Paperchase currently not owned by the Issuer (or certain of its affiliates), or cause any third party holders that own capital stock of Paperchase to become parties to the stock purchase agreement for the sale of Paperchase to certain funds managed by Pershing Square. Pursuant to the terms of the Purchase Offer Letter, as amended by the Amendment of Purchase Offer, funds managed by Pershing Square are no longer obligated to purchase the Issuer’s approximately 17% interest in Bookshop Acquisitions, Inc. The Purchase Offer Letter remains subject to its original terms and conditions, except as expressly amended or modified by the Amendment of Purchase Offer.

The foregoing summary of the First Amendment to the Senior Secured Credit Agreement, the Extension of Purchase Offer, the Amendment of Purchase Offer and the transactions contemplated thereby is not complete and is subject in its entirety to the First Amendment to the Senior Secured Credit Agreement, the Extension of Purchase Offer and the Amendment of Purchase Offer, which are filed as Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3 hereto and are incorporated herein by reference.

The Reporting persons have been and continue to be in discussions with the Issuer regarding financing transactions, including the backstop purchase offer, set forth in the Purchase Offer Letter, as extended and amended pursuant to the Extension of Purchase Offer and the Amendment of Purchase Offer, and alternative commitments and transactions (collectively, “Financing Transactions”). Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in this Schedule 13D or otherwise, the Reporting Persons may cease these discussions at any time and can make no assurance that any Financing Transaction will be successfully negotiated and/or consummated.

FIRST AMENDMENT TO THE SENIOR SECURED CREDIT AGREEMENT

AMENDMENT OF PURCHASE OFFER

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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The Scariest Chart Ever $$

If this does not give you pause…nothing will…

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From East Coast Economics

Here is a chart of federal borrowing through Dec. 2007.

Now, same chart through December 2008.

Anyone still think thee are not some rough patches down the road?


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Circuit City: An Inexplicable Chart

Just looking at this chart, it mystifies the imagination how Circuit City (CC) ended up liquidating..

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Take a look…

How does a company that has 20% market share of internet traffic, NOT dominate its industry? How?

Former CEO Phil Schoonver should be imprisoned at Abu Grab, at the very least…

The harsher penalties ought to go to the Board that oversaw his willful shareholder obliteration.

I’m think the prison in “Midnight Express


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None…ever…. thank god…
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Harley Davidson Seeks Loan Guarantee’s from FDIC

This is just too much…

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Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D- Penn) has asked a federal agency to find Harley-Davidson (HOG) eligible for funds handed out under a federal bailout for financial institutions. In a Jan. 16 letter to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairman Sheila Blair, saying Harley-Davidson recently inquired whether its financing company and subsidiaries — Harley-Davidson Credit Corp. and Eaglemark Savings Bank — are eligible for the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, or TLGP.

“Without access to TLGP, Harley-Davidson may be forced to make tough decisions that will impact workers in Pennsylvania, jeopardize the local economy … and negatively impact the state economy,” Casey wrote in the letter. Casey said he wants to do everything possible to make sure Harley’s financial arm has access to help if it’s eligible.

He said the problem with the economy is related to credit, and Harley’s participation in the program would allow more people to get Harley loans to buy motorcycles. “Without the determination (of eligibility) made, it puts their financing company in a much more precarious situation,” he said.

In October, in an attempt to improve confidence in the banking sector and to improve liquidity for banks, the FDIC started the program to guarantee newly issued unsecured debt of qualifying institutions and guarantee certain noninterest-bearing accounts.

Guarantee debt: Harley spokesman Bob Klein said the program would guarantee unsecured corporate debt against default; Harley would only get federal funds if a customer defaulted on his or her motorcycle loan.

Klein said the TLGP is one of several options that Harley-Davidson’s financial arm is pursuing “to ensure continued funding of its lending activities” in a challenging economic environment. Lower consumer confidence has affected the motorcycle industry, he said.

The Wisconsin-based company told elected officials in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin about its plans to seek inclusion in the program, Klein said. The company appreciates Casey’s support, he said.

A recent dealer survey shows that year-over-year retail sales appear to have softened from the third quarter, when Harley-Davidson reported a 15.5 percent drop in U.S. retail sales. The company is expected to report fourth-quarter results Friday.

Now, this is government programs run amok. It is one thing to backstop the debt of the compnay to lower borrowing costs, but to backstop its customers? Insane…

Do we really expect corporations to increase lending standards in an effort to avoid another fiasco like we are going through when taxpayers are backing the loans they are making now? Do we really?

What’s next, guaranteeing the debt we use for dishwashers at Home Depot (HD) or Sears (SHLD)?

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Peak Oil Update…

There is a real interesting discussion about the recent oil (USO), (DBO), (DXO) price activity of the past year and governments reaction to it.

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I highly recommend the ASPO Newsletter

From the December 2008 Issue:

In years ahead, analysts may look back on the current crisis and identify its causes. They may conclude that oil demand had begun to outpace supply around 2005, when the production of Regular Conventional Oil passed its peak.

The shortfall was however relatively small and was partly met without undue difficulty by a modest reduction in demand. But as prices began to firm, oil traders and other speculative financial institutions began to take a position in the market, which had the effect of driving up the price. Gradually the process built momentum as huge notional profits were reaped from the appreciating asset. In a conventional market such movements would soon be countered by increased production, but in the case of oil, there was no spare capacity to release, and the speculative surge fed on itself leading to an extreme escalation in price which reached about $150 a barrel by July 2008.

However as this peak was approached, the traders began to conclude that a limit was close and began to buy future options at lower prices, which began to undermine the price in a self-fulfilling process. In parallel the high prices began to undermine many other aspects of the economy with for example airlines and motor manufacturers facing difficulties. They themselves relied heavily on debt, which itself was traded between banks without adequate genuine collateral, and were forced to unload their speculative oil positions in order to try to shore up their failing businesses. Gradually the whole edifice collapsed, and oil prices fell to around $50 a barrel, although nothing particular had changed in the actual supply/demand relationship. The flaw in the system was to treat a finite resource whose production was largely controlled by the immutable physics of the reservoir as if it were a normal commodity capable of responding to ordinary market pressures. If the price of potatoes increases, farmers can grow more and the market responds, but oil is different.

Governments responded to the crash by pouring yet more money, itself lacking genuine collateral, into the system in the mistaken belief that this would restore the position of assumed eternal growth, and quite possibly the stock market will respond positively as traders sense a new upward direction. They have no real interest in reality: their job being to try to reap rewards from short term movements. But if there is an economic recovery, that would serve to increase the demand for oil, which is in a sense the bloodstream of the modern world, and oil prices would again begin to surge. Probably, it will take several such vicious circles before governments and, more important, people at large at last come to grasp the reality of the situation, which will likely prompt radical changes in the human condition.

Here is the report:
Association for Peak Oil Dec. 2008 Newsletter

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Economics Research crude oil peak oil


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DXO
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Tuesday’s Links

$200 oil, Fingers, Landing

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– A convincing case

Weird

US Air flight



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Hyper-Inflation Survival Guide

This is interesting…

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Hyper Inflation Book

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Business eBooks Business-Economics inflation gold feder


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