Category: Articles

Reader Justin submits: Why Sears (SHLD) is NOT going bankrupt?

In this volatile market, anyone can say anything to put downward pressure on a stock. In many cases deserved, in some cases absurd, and in the case of Sears a little of both.

Let’s start with the deserved part. Obviously, retail is doing terrible this year as an investment. However, the woes at Sears go beyond the macro environment. They have made bad decisions in some cases, suffered from management turnover, and communicated very little beyond what’s required by a public company. On top of that, they recently lost a well-respected, activist shareholder, Bill Ackman. Bill has taken an absolute beating on his investments in Sears, Target, and Borders, so he may have had about all the fun he can handle in retail. In short, it hasn’t been all that pretty, but the shares reflect much worse.

The absurd is the idea that Sears has some kind of solvency risk as some have floated. Why is this absurd? Here’s my case:

1. Last quarter Sears generated FCF (free cash flow) of over $400 million. Target, a “good” retailer actually had no FCF last quarter, they burned over $900million. In fact, Target hasn’t generated FCF in the last 3 quarters. Over the same time frame Sears generated a staggering $1.5 BILLION in FCF. So yes Sears is making money hand over fist in this environment even with mediocre execution.

2. Eddie Lampert’s investment fund ESL owns over 50% of Sears. And Sears makes up over ½ his fund. And his fund is still making investments in other equities. Now if you are thinking that ½ your fund may evaporate into insolvency or you are worried about investor redemptions then you preserve cash if not generate cash by selling positions. What you don’t do is make more investments, which is what he’s doing.

3. Sears announced the purchase of additional shares of Sears Canada in November. Why spend your cash on buybacks and now additional shares in Sears Canada if you are worried about your cash position?

4. I’ve been to several Sears and Kmarts in recent weeks and they are all hiring.

In conclusion, Sears is hiring people, buying shares in, generating FCF, and ESL continues to make investments. None of these indicate to me that there’s any solvency concern by the controlling shareholder.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Justin is long SHLD
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Have not had a chance to go through the numbers yet and want to wait until the conference call tomorrow but here is the news and some initial thoughts…

Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) today reported results for the third quarter, ended Nov. 1, 2008. On an operating basis, the consolidated loss from continuing operations for the third quarter was essentially flat with the same period a year ago at $39.0 million or $0.64 per share, compared to $38.4 million or $0.65 per share in the third quarter of 2007. On a GAAP basis, the company reported a consolidated third quarter loss from continuing operations of $172.2 million or $2.85 per share compared to a year ago when it recorded a GAAP loss of $40.0 million or $0.68 per share from continuing operations. The GAAP basis loss includes non-cash, non-operating charges totaling $133.2 million in the third quarter, consisting primarily of deferred tax and fixed asset impairments. Comparable store sales for Borders superstores decreased by 12.8% in the third quarter, and with music excluded, declined by 10.6%. Same-store sales at Waldenbooks decreased by 7.7% for the period.

“Borders has successfully reduced debt, improved operating cash flow, lowered expenses, improved gross margin-excluding occupancy-and improved inventory productivity during a time of extreme economic challenge,” said Borders Group Chief Executive Officer George Jones. “We stated at the beginning of this year that strengthening our balance sheet is our top priority and we are delivering results. We’ll remain keenly focused on these critical initiatives, and in addition, will increase our efforts to drive further gross margin improvement. All of the changes we are making will position Borders Group to compete more effectively.”

Debt, including the prior-year debt of discontinued operations, was reduced from a year ago by 34.2% or $273.1 million at the end of the third quarter to $525.4 million. This compares to debt of $798.5 million at the end of the third quarter last year. The debt reduction year-over-year was driven primarily by improved management of inventory, lower capital expenditures and proceeds from the previously announced sale of the company’s Australia/New Zealand/Singapore businesses, which took place in the second quarter of this year.

Operating cash flow from continuing operations improved by $110.0 million, as the company recorded fiscal year-to-date cash flow of $9.4 million compared to cash use of $100.6 million for the same period in 2007. Borders Group reduced inventory by $304.2 million at cost-or 19.5%-at the end of the third quarter compared to the end of the third quarter a year ago.

Management is now on-track to reduce fiscal 2009 operating expenses by $140 million compared to its previous target of $120 million. As a result, the company expects to save $70 million this year versus its original $60 million target for 2008. Beyond these operating expense improvements, the company believes there is additional opportunity to improve its realized gross margin through a more effective use of promotions and discounts. Early initiatives enabled the company to generate gross margin rate improvement-excluding occupancy-of 30 basis points in the third quarter and the company believes there is substantial room for further improvement.

Strategic Alternatives Update

Management provided an update to its previously disclosed strategic alternatives process, which included the exploration of a wide range of options, among them the sale of the company and/or certain divisions, including Paperchase Products Ltd. With respect to the sale of the company, management is no longer contemplating a transaction. Regarding Paperchase, as previously disclosed, Borders Group retains its right to exercise its “put” option to sell its Paperchase business to Pershing Square Capital Management for $65 million and is also in discussions with Pershing Square regarding an alternative financing transaction. No assurance can be given as to whether an alternative financing transaction will be entered into or consummated.

Additional Consolidated Q3 Results

All earnings and loss figures presented throughout this news release are provided on a continuing operations basis, unless otherwise noted.

Borders Group achieved third quarter consolidated sales of $682.1 million, a decrease of 10.0% over 2007. Consolidated gross margin as a percent of sales on an operating basis decreased by 1.4% from 22.2% to 20.8% in the third quarter as the negative impact of de-leveraging occupancy costs more than offset the gross margin benefit of a favorable sales mix and lower shrink. Excluding occupancy, third-quarter consolidated gross margin increased by 30 basis points compared to the prior year. On a GAAP basis consolidated gross margin as a percent of sales decreased by 0.6% from 22.1% to 21.5% in the third quarter.

On an operating basis, SG&A as a percent of sales in the third quarter decreased 0.1% from 28.7% in the same period last year to 28.6% resulting from de-leveraging caused by negative sales trends that were offset by the benefit of expense reductions. The expense reduction initiatives helped reduce SG&A dollar expenses by $22.3 million in the third quarter compared to the prior year. On a GAAP basis SG&A as a percentage of sales increased 1.3% from 28.7% to 30.0%.

Non-Operating Adjustments

GAAP consolidated net loss and loss per share figures reported in this release include the impact of non-operating adjustments, which in the third quarter totaled a net after-tax charge of $133.2 million. The net after-tax charge is comprised of deferred tax asset impairments of $107.0 million, store asset impairments of $31.1 million, as well as other items totaling $12.6 million, including severance costs, store closure and relocation costs, professional fees related to the strategic alternatives process, an adjustment to the U.K. lease guarantee liability and amortization of debt issuance costs. These costs were offset by income related to the fair market value adjustment of the warrant liability and a related tax benefit of $12.7 million as well as income received from a landlord lease termination of $4.8 million after tax.

Domestic Borders Superstores

Total third quarter sales at domestic Borders superstores were $548.4 million, a decrease of 10.9% over the same period in 2007. As stated, comparable store sales decreased by 12.8% for the period compared to last year, a result significantly impacted by a steep decline in customer traffic that was most pronounced in the months of September and October. Excluding the music category, same-store sales declined by 10.6% for the third quarter compared to one year ago.

Sales through Borders.com in the third quarter totaled $11.9 million, which is below management expectations due to the challenging sales environment. As a result, Borders Group does not expect Borders.com to break even this year as previously stated.

On an operating basis, Borders superstores reported an operating loss of $37.8 million in the third quarter compared to an operating loss of $30.8 million in the same period a year ago. The loss resulted primarily from negative same-store sales, which were partially offset by expense reductions. On a GAAP basis, Borders superstores reported an operating loss of $80.3 million in the third quarter compared to an operating loss of $31.9 million in the same period a year ago.

The company opened two new Borders superstores in the U.S. during the period and ended the third quarter with a total of 519 domestic superstore locations.

Waldenbooks Specialty Retail

Comparable store sales decreased within the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment by 7.7% in the third quarter. Total sales in the segment were down by 16.6% in the third quarter to $91.5 million, as the number of stores was reduced from 521 at the close of the third quarter 2007 to 467 at the end of the third quarter this year.

Company expense reduction initiatives and better gross margin performance drove an improvement in the third quarter operating loss for the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment. On an operating basis, the operating loss was $13.2 million in the third quarter this year compared to $19.4 million in the third quarter last year. On a GAAP basis, the operating loss for the Waldenbooks Specialty Retail segment was $17.7 million in the third quarter this year compared to $20.5 million in the third quarter last year.

International

In the third quarter, sales within the International segment (which consists primarily of Paperchase) totaled $30.3 million, which is down 6.2% compared to the same period a year ago. Excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, sales would have increased by 2.7%. On an operating basis, the segment generated an operating loss of $1.6 million in the third quarter this year compared to operating income of $1.8 million in the third quarter last year. On a GAAP basis, the segment generated an operating loss of $1.8 million in the third quarter this year compared to operating income of $1.8 million in the third quarter last year.

Next Financial Release

Borders Group plans to issue holiday sales results in mid-January. Fourth quarter 2008 results will be issued March 19 after market close with a conference call for investors the following day, March 20, at 8 a.m.

So, where are we? First and foremost the #1 problem at Borders is its debt. That, is falling and has been steadily since the beginning of the year. Second was cash flow / expenses and those are also going in the right direction. Cash flow is up and Borders will exceed it stated cost saving by 17%.

One has to remember that these results are in the face of a dismal operating environment for all retailers. The really good news is that in spite of it all, they are still making progress on their goals. As a shareholder, if the macro environment is lousy one cannot expect management to pull a rabbit out of their hat but as long as they continue to progress on the stated path, progress is being made.

Two things stick out. Borders.com results fell below expectations and the mentioned “financing transaction” with Pershing. Both need to be listened to on the conference call tomorrow am. Off the top of my head Borders can put Paperchase to Pershing for $65 million but owes Ackman $45 million from the earlier in the year loan. Just guessing but I think they want to put Paperchase to Pershing and extend the repayment of the loan…just a guess.

More after the call tomorrow…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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