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Ackman Takes 12% Position in General Growth Properties

Now, is it just a coincidence with the Target (TGT) situation? Ackman now has a 12.5% total interest in General Growth Properties (GGP).

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From the SEC Filing:
Item 5. Interest in Securities of the Issuer
(a), (b) Based upon the Issuer’s quarterly report on 9/30/08 10-Q, 268,314,510 Common Shares were outstanding as of November 10, 2008. Based on the foregoing, the Subject Shares represented approximately 7.5% of the Common Shares issued and outstanding as of such date.
Pershing Square, as the investment adviser to the Pershing Square Funds, may be deemed to have the shared power to vote or direct the vote of (and the shared power to dispose or direct the disposition of) the Subject Shares. As the general partner of Pershing Square, PS Management may be deemed to have the shared power to vote or to direct the vote of (and the shared power to dispose of or direct the disposition of) the Subject Shares. As the general partner of Pershing Square, L.P. and Pershing Square II, L.P., Pershing Square GP may be deemed to have the shared power to vote or to direct the vote of (and the shared power to dispose or direct the disposition of) the Common Shares held for the benefit of Pershing Square, L.P. and Pershing Square II, L.P. By virtue of William A. Ackman’s position as managing member of each of PS Management and Pershing Square GP, William A. Ackman may be deemed to have the shared power to vote or direct the vote of (and the shared power to dispose or direct the disposition of) the Subject Shares and, therefore, William A. Ackman may be deemed to be the beneficial owner of the Subject Shares for purposes of this Schedule 13D.
(c) Exhibit 99.2, which is incorporated by reference into this Item 5(c) as if restated in full herein, describes all of the transactions in Common Shares and Swaps that were effected during the past sixty days by the Reporting Persons for the benefit of the Pershing Square Funds.
(d) No other person is known to the Reporting Persons to have the right to receive or the power to direct the receipt of dividends from, or the proceeds from the sale of, the Common Shares covered by this Schedule 13D, except that dividends from, and proceeds from the sale of, the Common Shares held by the accounts managed by Pershing Square may be delivered to such accounts.
(e) Not applicable.
Item 6. Contracts, Arrangements, Understandings or Relationships with Respect to Securities of the Issuer
The Subject Shares are beneficially owned by the Reporting Persons. Furthermore, the Reporting Persons entered into Swaps for the benefit of Pershing Square, L.P. (the “PSLP Swaps”), Pershing Square II, L.P. (the “PSII Swaps”) and Pershing Square International, Ltd (the “PSIL Swaps”, collectively with the PSLP Swaps and PSII Swaps, the “Pershing Square Swaps”) on the dates described on Exhibit 99.2. The Pershing Square Swaps constitute economic exposure to approximately 12.5% notional outstanding Common Shares in the aggregate, have reference prices ranging from $0.49 to $0.70 and expire on the dates described on Exhibit 99.1.
Under the terms of the Pershing Square Swaps (i) the applicable Pershing Square Fund will be obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance of the notional number of Common Shares subject to the applicable Pershing Square Swap as of the expiration date of such Swap, plus interest at the rates set forth in the applicable contracts, and (ii) the counterparty will be obligated to pay to the applicable Pershing Square Fund any positive price performance of the notional number of Common Shares subject to the applicable Pershing Square Swap as of the expiration date of the Swaps. With regard to certain of the Pershing Square Swaps, any dividends received by the counterparty on such notional Common Shares will be paid to the applicable Pershing Square Fund during the term of the Swap. With regard to the balance of the Pershing Square Swaps, any dividends received by the counterparty on such notional Common Shares during the term of the Swaps will be paid to the applicable Pershing Square Fund at maturity. All balances will be cash settled at the expiration date of the Swaps. The Pershing Square Funds’ third party counterparties for the Pershing Square Swaps include entities related to Citibank, Morgan Stanley and UBS.
The Pershing Square Swaps do not give the Reporting Persons direct or indirect voting, investment or dispositive control over any securities of the Issuer and do not require the counterparty thereto to acquire, hold, vote or dispose of any securities of the Issuer. Accordingly, the Reporting Persons disclaim any beneficial ownership of any Common Shares that may be referenced in such contracts or Common Shares or other securities or financial instruments that may be held from time to time by any counterparty to the contracts.
In addition to the agreements referenced above, the Reporting Persons from time to time, may enter into and dispose of additional cash-settled total return swaps or other similar derivative transactions with one or more counterparties that are based upon the value of Common Shares, which transactions could be significant in amount. The profit, loss and/or return on such additional contracts may be wholly or partially dependent on the market value of the Common Shares, relative value of the Common Shares in comparison to one or more other financial instruments, indexes or securities, a basket or group of securities in which the Common Shares may be included or a combination of any of the foregoing.


Full Filing

Now, General Growth Properties recently expressed doubts it could keep operating due to looming near-term debt.

The Chicago-based retail property company has $1.13 billion in debt coming due, including $900 million in secured mortgage debt due November 28 on two of its Las Vegas shopping centers and $58 million of corporate debt on December 1, the company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.

It also faces another $3.07 billion due next year, according to the SEC filing.

“In the event that we are unable to extend or refinance our debt or obtain additional capital on a timely basis and on acceptable terms, we will be required to take further steps to acquire the funds necessary to satisfy our short term cash needs, including seeking legal protection from our creditors,” the real estate investment trust said in the filing.

“Our potential inability to address our 2008 or 2009 debt maturities in a satisfactory fashion raises substantial doubts as to our ability to continue as a going concern.”

Will Ackman provide some financing?

This is going to be good…..

If nothing else..the words Ford (F) or GM (GM) will not enter the vocabulary..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Starbucks: 2 Years of Missteps & An Overdue Admission.

Of course they slipped in an SEC filing and did not actually say it out loud. There have been few companies that I have covered that have been either as clueless as to their business environment or dishonest about it with shareholders than Starbucks (SBUX) had over the past almost two years now.

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Back in Feb. 2007 the CEO Jim Donald claimed that McDonalds (MCD) then new entry into premium coffee would be a benefit to Starbucks as McDonalds’ customers would then trade up to him. At the time I detailed to folly of this statement and said “I advise any potential new shareholders to avoid shares…”. Shares at $34

Less than a month later then retire founder and former CEO Howard Schultz penned a memo saying, without naming, that “competition has created awareness” of themselves, the company had “got away from its roots” and that it was affecting results.

In May 2007
with milk prices soaring and flimsy earnings out I detailed how dairy price would hurt them despite the fact management denied it would affect earnings and CEO Donald said “we do not consider the competition” when asked about McDonalds. Um….can’t really even add to that…Shares sit at $28

Only weeks later Starbucks switched from whole milk to 2% in all drinks for “customer service” reasons and at the time I said it was all about milk prices, then at decade highs..(2% is cheaper than whole)

Fast forward a month, Starbucks issues a profit warning and says “rising dairy costs are a challenge”…..duh..

Then came the announcement of the near $6 salad. At the time I commented that for a company that Schultz had lamented had “got way from its roots” in his famous memo, nothing they had done since then was a return to them.

Then just in case you weren’t convinced the ship wasn’t drifting listlessly, in late July facing declining stores traffic and an increasingly cash strapped consumer Starbucks did what???? Raised prices…

Less than a week later Starbucks admits increased prices leads to less store visits by customers….yet they maintain price levels…

Finally in September Starbucks admits “dairy prices will be a negative into 2008″…Shares now priced at $27

In Jan 2008 Schultz finally did what I begged him to do for almost a year a fired Donald

In Feb. 2008 they admitted what I hope anyone who has read the blog already knew, the coming year would be a poor one. Shares priced at $18

In March things got weird. Starbucks decided that they were going to start a social site so folks who loves the place can go online and talk about it…..more of Schultz “going back to the roots” of the company?

In May we find out the fired CEO Jim Donald cannot work “for the competition”….McDonalds..but, we thought they weren’t??

In July Starbucks started playing games with the earnings release to hide how bad results really were. Shares priced at $14

In August Schultz gave an interview in which he called the coffee at McDonalds and Dunkin Donuts “swill”, said he won’t “dilute the brand” by “going down the fast food road” and then does just that only days later with the “$2 after 2” promotion. Shares priced at $14

Current day. I have stopped following Starbucks as close as before because with the stock at $9 vs the $34 it was at when I told folks to run from it, I hope the story is clear for all to see. But, I could not let this one go by.

From the WSJ:

The filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission sheds light on how much of a threat new competition is to Starbucks, as McDonald’s Corp. and other restaurants add espresso drinks and more elaborate beverages. In the filing, Starbucks says that, in the U.S., “the continued focus by one or more large competitors in the quick-service restaurant sector on selling high-quality specialty coffee beverages at a low cost has attracted Starbucks customers and could, if the numbers become large enough, adversely affect the company’s sales and results of operations.”

Not bad…..it took 22 months for them to either recognize or admit it……

Just terrible…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, none
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Tuesday’s Links

Shot, Massachusetts, Newt, NYT vs WSJ

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– Ok, this is helpful?

– Not sure if this is good or bad, more folks need to get laid off in order for it to work, right?

– Ok..this is the guy that balanced the budget…not Clinton….we ought to listen to him..

– This is really big news…surprised about how little play it is getting


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Bill Gates Adds More AutoNation

Gates continues to up his stake in the nation’s largest auto dealer. $$

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Gates purchased another 244k shares for the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, upping his stake in AutoNation (AN) to 8.5 million shares.

On the same day, Gates investment fund Cascade investments purchased 244k shares upping its stake to 9.66 million shares.

Gates now holds 10.3% of the outstanding shares


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN
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Prince Alwaleed on Citi & Oil (video)

After I watched this I got the impression former Citi (C) CEO Chuck Prince ought to take the Kingdom off his vacation list..$$

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Alwaleed has some very interesting things to say about Oil (USO) also


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Target Decides To Let Stock Languish

Just do not understand this one…what are they thinking???

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Press Release:

Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) disclosed today that after a comprehensive evaluation of various real estate structure ideas proposed by Pershing Square over the past six months, it has decided not to pursue them further. Following a thorough review of the transaction outlined by Pershing Square by members of Target management, Board of Directors and outside advisors, including Goldman Sachs (GS), the company has concluded that the potential value created, if any, is highly speculative and insufficient to merit pursuit of a transaction given the costs, strategic and operating risks, and loss of financial flexibility related to executing the proposed transaction. These concerns are heightened in the current economic environment.

Analysis of the most recent Pershing Square idea revealed that concerns previously expressed by the company remain. These include:

* The validity of assumptions supporting Pershing Square’s market valuation of Target and the separate REIT entity,
* The reduction in Target’s financial flexibility due to the conveyance of valuable assets to the REIT and the large expense obligation created by the proposed lease payments, which are subject to annual increase,
* The frictional costs and operational risks, including tax implications, of executing Pershing Square’s ideas, and
* The risk of diverting management’s focus away from core business operations over an extended time period to execute such a complex transaction, particularly in the current environment.

One additional earlier concern, relating to the adverse impact the company believed the proposed structure would have on Target’s debt ratings, borrowing costs and liquidity, has been partially addressed in the current version of Pershing Square’s proposal, though we believe meaningful risk remains.

“Target has a strong record of engagement and open dialogue with shareholders over many years and we respect the spirit with which Pershing Square’s real estate ideas were presented,” said Gregg Steinhafel, president and chief executive officer of Target Corporation. “We gave these ideas a full and complete review, including numerous meetings between Pershing Square and Target senior executives and a meeting between Bill Ackman, the Managing Member of Pershing Square, and several members of Target’s Board. Target does not share Pershing Square’s perspective that execution of this proposed transaction will generate measurable shareholder value over time and believes the risks, particularly in light of the serious challenges facing our retail and credit card segments in 2008 and 2009, are significant. Both our Board and executive team remain firmly committed to generating value for our shareholders and expect to achieve this objective over the next 3 to 5 years through our continued, thoughtful focus on our current strategy and core business operations.”

So, let’s review. Here is Ackman’s proposal:

Let’s address Targets concerns:

– Market Value: Ackman specifically gives a range of potential values in the presentation based on what current retailers / REIT’s are selling for today. To imply these are wrong is not logical. The market values them at what they value them at, it isn’t wrong.

– Flexibility: This is why Ackman recommended to a partial 20% IPO of the REIT. This would allow management gauge how it is valued by the market and still allow management the financial flexibility having an 80% owned REIT subsidiary comes with. It also, as a REIT increases the flexibility of Target to buy real estate from current landholders

– Frictional costs and operational risks: Can anyone tell me what that means? What operational risk? You are your REIT’s sole tenant. The only “risk” is if you decide not to pay yourself rent. As far as frictional costs, this is just irrelevant. If you are going to monetize a currently worthless asset (in the market’s view), then of course there will be costs involved but they will be dwarfed by the asset’s new value.

– Focus: Can’t walk and chew gum? This borders on absurd. You are creating a REIT with one tenant, yourself. Lock the lawyers in a room for a week, let them draw up the paperwork and sign it at lunch one day. Tell me how the fashion departments purchasing manager’s job will be affect by the REIT plan. Please anyone tell me what I am missing..

Here is the sentence every current shareholder ought to pay very close attention to. “Both our Board and executive team remain firmly committed to generating value for our shareholders and expect to achieve this objective over the next 3 to 5 years….”. Basically, the next 2-3 years are dead money.

Think about it. When do you expect a meaningful turnaround in the macro environment. 1 year? 2? If it takes two years, Target will not turn ahead of it. If anything, one could argue Target may take longer as any ground they made on Wal-Mart (WMT) the previous 4 years was wiped out and then some in the last one.

Target is viewed as a pricey store. True or not is irrelevant. Perception is reality. Just ask Citi’s (C) CEO Pandit. It takes a ton of advertising to change the perception of a retailer and in a recession and dreadful retail environment, the cash to do that is limited.

Ackman’s plan allows shareholder to profit in the short run from the REIT spin and then profit down the road when retail turns around. Win win.

Target management ought to know….Ackman is not going away. Why? He is right and has more invested in the company than they do. He was right with McDonalds (MCD) when it spun Chipotle (CMG) (it should be noted that the CFO of McDonald’s at the time just joined Pershing).

Mr. Ackman will take time and come out guns blazing after the new year….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT, MCD, none
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Dow Chemical EVP Buys Shares

Dow Chemical (DOW) EVP Heinz Haller purchased another 10k shares Friday.

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Haller now own over 96k shares directly. This is the fifth insider purchase in the last few weeks as execs have spent pver $1.2 million buying shares on the open market.



FULL FILING

($dow)


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow
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Fed and Treasury Comment on Citi Bailout ($c)

The term sheet is included here also…

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The U.S. government is committed to supporting financial market stability, which is a prerequisite to restoring vigorous economic growth. In support of this commitment, the U.S. government on Sunday entered into an agreement with Citigroup to provide a package of guarantees, liquidity access, and capital.

As part of the agreement, Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will provide protection against the possibility of unusually large losses on an asset pool of approximately $306 billion of loans and securities backed by residential and commercial real estate and other such assets, which will remain on Citigroup’s balance sheet. As a fee for this arrangement, Citigroup will issue preferred shares to the Treasury and FDIC. In addition and if necessary, the Federal Reserve stands ready to backstop residual risk in the asset pool through a non-recourse loan.

In addition, Treasury will invest $20 billion in Citigroup from the Troubled Asset Relief Program in exchange for preferred stock with an 8% dividend to the Treasury. Citigroup will comply with enhanced executive compensation restrictions and implement the FDIC’s mortgage modification program.

With these transactions, the U.S. government is taking the actions necessary to strengthen the financial system and protect U.S. taxpayers and the U.S. economy.

We will continue to use all of our resources to preserve the strength of our banking institutions and promote the process of repair and recovery and to manage risks. The following principles guide our efforts:

* We will work to support a healthy resumption of credit flows to households and businesses.
* We will exercise prudent stewardship of taxpayer resources.
* We will carefully circumscribe the involvement of government in the financial sector.
* We will bolster the efforts of financial institutions to attract private capital.

Here is the term sheet for the Citi (C) deal..




This means that JP Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and USB (USB) are essentially the only large investment grade banks left..


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Wilbur Ross on Tim Geithner

Ross likes Obama’a pick for Treasury..

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Monday’s Links

Pacman, BUD, Imports, Admit

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– Why? we all know how this story ends…

– Nice work George!!

– They are not selling either

– This is a good list

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Is "Hyper-Inflation" Ahead Of Us?

Blindly printing money in order to stop deflation might just lead us into a period on “hyper-inflation”.

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Part 1:The Fed’s balance sheet “look like a Central American Central Bank’s”

Part 2:The current crisis is a direct result of the near 0% interest rates of 2002-2003

Part 3:On “mark to market”. Removing it is essentially “price controls”


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Pat Dorsey and Morningstar on Berkshire (video)

Pat Dorsey who wrote the great book “The Little Book that Builds Wealth” and his take on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and its current sell off.

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Behold: The "Erin Burnett Rally Monkey" $$

Thank you to reader Vlado for this…….an instant classic..

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Bill Gates Ups Stake in AutoNation to 10% ($an)

55.00002% of the outstanding shares are now held by Gates, Eddie Lampert and Todd Sullivan. 🙂

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Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates has taken a 10% stake in car retailer AutoNation Inc., according to a regulatory filing Friday.

Gates’ investment firm, Cascade Investment LLC, owns 9.4 million shares, or 5.3 percent, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust holds 8.3 million shares, or 4.7 percent, according to the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

In July, Gates disclosed a 5.5 percent stake in AutoNation, also through Cascade and his foundation trust, which together at the time held 9.9 million shares.

AutoNation’s largest shareholder is billionaire investor Edward S. Lampert who disclosed last week that his entities control about 45% company’s outstanding stock.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN
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Warren Buffett on TARP, Autos, Jobs, Paulson etc.. (video)

Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Warren buffett sits down with Fox Biz…

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Part 1:The Market & Paulson

Part 2:Economy and Jobs & Goldman Sachs (GS)

Part 3:Auto Industry: “the model must change”

Part 4:More on Paulson


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