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AutoNation Earnings Call Notes ($an)

Notes from yesterday’s AutoNation (AN) earnings call

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CEO Mike Jackson said:

“In the third quarter total US industry new vehicle retail sales declined 31% based on CNW research data. In comparison, in the third quarter AutoNation’s new vehicle unit sales declined 24%. This performance relative to the US retail total is attributable to a combination of increased market share as well as the benefit of our geographic and brand mix relative to the total market.”

“We have shifted our capital allocation strategy from share repurchase to debt reduction. So far this year we have repaid $589 million of combined non-vehicle debt and floor plan debt. This was made possible by strong operating cash flow including a significant contribution from working capital improvements. Going forward we have targeted an additional $500 million of total debt reduction.”

“Finally, prior to the third quarter of 2008 we operated as a single operating segment. During the third quarter of 2008 in response to changes in the automotive retail market including the disproportionate decline in revenue and earnings from our domestic franchises relative to our import and premium luxury franchises, we made changes to our management approach and divided our business into three operating and reportable segments: Domestic, import and premium luxury.

Beginning in the third quarter resources are allocated and performances assessed based on financial information from each of these segments. We believe that our segment-related disclosures will improve the transparency of our financial reporting.”

“Despite the impairment charges, we remain in compliance with all the covenants under our debt agreements. Our consolidated leverage ratio at September 30 which measures non-vehicle debt to EBITDA was 2.65 versus the covenant limit of 3.0. Our capitalization ratio which measures floor plan plus non-vehicle debt divided by total book capitalization was 61.5% at September 30 versus the 65% cap. We believe that our aggressive costs and cash-flow management will enable us to continue to reduce debt and remain in compliance with our covenants.”

Other notables:
– Compared to the quarter a year ago, revenue per new vehicle retail of $30,000 was off $530 or 2% primarily driven by a decline in truck pricing that was highly incentivized in a shift in car/truck mix. Same-store gross profit per new vehicle retail of $1,975 was off $184 or 9% impacted by compressed truck margins which were pressured by the liquidat5ion of low demand inventory.

– At September 30 we had a 62-day supply of new vehicle inventory favorable to the industry at 72 days. At 62 days our day supply increased 14 days compared to the quarter a year ago resulting from a slowing of sales in September. Since June 30 we’ve managed our inventory down by 6,600 units ahead of our target for the second half of the year.

– Turning to used vehicles, we retailed just over 45,000 used units in the quarter up 13% compared to a year ago. Same-store revenue per used vehicle retail was down 7% as consumer demand for value or lower-priced vehicles continued to trend upward. Truck pricing remained under pressure but began showing signs of improvement as gas prices started to drop.

– Gross profit per used vehicle retailed was down 8% or $136 with used cars and trucks having approximately the same margin and each accounting for about half of the margin decline.

– As we look at the rest of 2008 we believe the market will remain extremely challenging. We also believe that in 2008 new vehicle sales for the industry will decline to the low 13 million unit level.

– New vehicle sales for 2009, the most conservative industry forecasts are in the range of 12 million new vehicle units. Even at a 12 million unit sales rate, AutoNation will remain profitable and we are confident that we will remain in compliance with our debt covenants.

The key phrase it the bold highlight above…”increased market share”. We know An is not going under and neither is Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Buffett pick in the sector, CarMax (KMX). The key is how strong do they come out of it. I have yet to find any evidence that these dealer groups are not going to be a substantially better position when we come out of this than when they went it.

Since that seems to be true, it is just a matter of buying shares and waiting. It’ll happen..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, None
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Friday’s Links

Free Bold, Severance, FireFox, Deflation

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Leave it Wal-Mart

– Is anyone surprised it sucks?

20% share

Panic?


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Fairholme "In Discussions" with AmeriCredit ($acf)

Luecadia (LUK) owns 28% so together with Fairholme (FAIRX), this could get interesting.

Wall St. Newsletters

From the 13-D
“The Reporting Persons are in discussions with the Issuer’s management concerning (i) the exchange of certain debt securities of the Issuer held by the Reporting Persons for additional Shares, (ii) the acquisition by the Reporting Persons of asset-backed securities of the Issuer or its affiliate offered in a future securitization transaction, and (iii) an agreement under which the Reporting Persons will refrain from taking certain actions with respect to the Issuer for a specified period and will acquire one seat on the Issuer’s board of directors, and the Issuer will waive the application of the Texas Business Combination Law. The Reporting Persons reserve the right, at a later date, to consult with management and other shareholders of the Issuer from time to time to evaluate the business prospects of the Issuer as well as its present and future intentions.

Except as set forth above, the Reporting Persons have no plans or proposals
that would relate to or would result in: (a) any extraordinary corporate transaction involving the Issuer; (b) any material change in the present capitalization or dividend policy of the Issuer; (c) any material change in the operating policies or corporate structure of the Issuer; (d) any change in the Issuer’s charter or by-laws; (e) the Shares of the Issuer ceasing to be authorized to be quoted in the over-the-counter security markets; or (f) causing the Issuer to become eligible for termination of registration pursuant to Section 12(g)(4) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The Reporting Persons, however, reserve the right, at a later date, to effect one or more of such changes or transactions in the number of Shares they may be deemed to beneficially own.”

“As of the date hereof, Fairholme may be deemed to be the beneficial owner of 22,853,914 Shares (19.6%) of the Issuer, the Fund may be deemed to be the beneficial owner of 16,692,000 Shares (14.0%) of the Issuer and Bruce R. Berkowitz may be deemed to be the beneficial owner of 22,850,413 Shares (19.6%) of the Issuer, based upon the 116,312,936 Shares outstanding as of August 26, 2008, according to the Issuer.”


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Leucadia Files 10-Q: Pershing Losses Disclosed

Wow

Wall St. Newsletters

In its annual report in February Leucadia (LUK) booked an $85 million loss on the investment in Target (TGT).

In the most recent 10-Q for the first nine months of 2008 Leucadia is booking another $27.7 million dollar loss on the investment.

Pershing head, Bill Ackman recently unveiled his plan for the retailer. One has to assume as his options, dated 1/2010 get closer to coming due he will begin to put real pressure on the retailer.


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Bruce Berkowitz (video)

Fairholme’s (FAIRX) Bruce Berkowitz talks about what he is buying now.

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Taleb Up 50% This Year (video)

The “Black Swan” author talks about his thesis and its result on his success this year.

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Here is the book:

Here is my review of it.


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Market Hysteria On Display in Berkshire Credit Defaults

Here is how you know the market is totally irrational. Look at the credit spreads on Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) credit defaults.

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From Bronte Capital

I am quite familiar with Berkshire – about as familiar as you can get by reading stat statements and the like. I can not blow it up. That means I know of no reason whatsoever that it could wind up insolvent in five years.

That does not mean it can not happen. If 9.11 had been nuclear they might have had problems – but as my “Risk Aversion Berkshire Style” post makes clear fat tail risk is not part of the formula.

So why is the five year credit default swap spread on Berkshire over 200bps? I have no idea and it makes no sense to me. Maybe it is just irrational bearishness about everything (ie BUY HARD) or maybe there is something I do not know.

So if anyone wants to post/reply a case for Berkshire CDS please…

Now, personally I have more faith in Warren Buffett and Berkshire than I do the US government at this point. That being said, a 200 point spread defies any and all rational thought.

I also can’t imagine a scenario in which Berkshire becomes insolvent. Perhaps a catastrophe the like of which we cannot imagine? If that is the case, the ability of Berkshire to pay it bills and make good on it’s debt will most likely be pretty low on everyone’s “things to worry about list”.

Insane….it also means “great opportunities”


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AutoNation Reports Operating Profit

AutoNation (AN) reported an operating profit this morning…..

Wall St. Newsletters

The automotive retailer, today reported a 2008 third quarter net loss from continuing operations of $1.40 billion or $7.95 per share. In the quarter, the Company recorded non-cash charges for goodwill and franchise impairments of $1.46 billion after-tax. After adjusting for the impairment charges and certain other items disclosed in the attached financial tables, net income from continuing operations for the 2008 third quarter was $44 million or $0.25 per share, compared to $73 million or $0.37 per share in the prior year.

Third quarter 2008 revenue totaled $3.5 billion, compared to $4.5 billion in the year-ago period, driven primarily by lower new vehicle sales. In the third quarter, total U.S. industry new vehicle retail sales declined 31%, based on CNW Research data. In comparison, in the third quarter AutoNation’s new vehicle unit sales declined 24%.

Here is CEO Mike Jackson on the numbers:

Other recent dealers reports:
Sonic Automotive (SAH), the number three auto retailer which operates only in the United States, posted a loss of $25.3 million, or 57 cents per share during the quarter, compared with a profit of $26.1 million, or 58 cents, a year ago.

The company lost 24 cents per share from continuing operations. Revenue fell nearly 16 percent to $1.78 billion.

Group 1 (GPN) Chief Executive Earl Hesterberg said on a conference call with analysts that the global financial crisis, which affected consumer confidence, and lenders raising credit standards had hurt showroom traffic in the latest quarter. He said some lenders were turning down loan applications, and higher down payments and interest rates were making other customers reject the financing being offered.

Group 1, the #4 auto retailer operates in the United States and UK. The UK market accounts for 1.7 percent of its new vehicle unit sales.

Group 1 posted a net loss of $20.6 million, or 91 cents per share, compared with earnings of $20.8 million, or 90 cents per share, a year earlier. Income from continuing operations was 42 cents per share, one cent higher than analysts’ average expectations.

Now, you have heard (read?) here many times that AutoNation will pick up market share simply by surviving this environment. But, just how many dealerships are going away? Here it is in graphical terms…

The National Automobile Dealers Association estimates 700 new-car dealerships will close this year, up from 430 last year, and taking with them an estimated 37,100 jobs. The country has roughly 20,700 dealerships.

Now, this is a real good earnings report as AN is still the only one in the black operationally. It is a bad as it can get and they are pulling through it just fine. It is painful yes….but things will be just fine.

Jackson also refuted rumors swirling last week that the company was in danger of being in violation of debt covenants. he said they have paid down $600 million in debt to date and will do another $500 million next year.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, none
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Thursday’s Links

Curve, MySpace, Guns, Craig’s list

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Looks good

– Some useless info

– Gun sales up…people fear Second Amendment challenge

– Just in case things weren’t weird enough


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Foreclosures and the Election

So, was this a referendum for Obama, or, scapegoating the party in charge. Check this out..

Wall St. Newsletters

Eight of the top 10 foreclosure states all swung for Obama giving him an additional 71 electoral votes.

Would them swinging for McCain made a difference? No. It does mean that it was the central issue. 90% of exit polls said the economy was the central issue. It also means that the McCain camp really dropped the ball not linking Obama to Freddie (FRE) and Fannie (FNM) the same relentless way Obama linked McCain to Bush.

It also means that two years from now should the housing situation not be any better, Democrats may face a backlash in Congress in those election as this shows the vote in these areas was not so much “for Obama” but “against Bush”.

The only thing less popular today than Bush is Congress. The new Congress has no honeymoon period as citizens over their head want someone to blame. It will be the guys in charge, not themselves.


From ForeclosurePulse

State-By-State

1. Arizona (10 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Arizona voted for McCain.

2. California (55 electoral cotes) Voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. In 2008 California voted for Obama.

3. Colorado (9 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Colorado voted for Obama.

4. Florida (27 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Florida voted for Obama.

5. Georgia (15 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Georgia voted for McCain.

6. Indiana (11 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Indiana voted for Obama.

7. Michigan (17 electoral cotes) Voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. In 2008 Michigan voted for Obama.

8. Nevada (5 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Nevada voted for Obama.

9. New Jersey (15 electoral cotes) Voted for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. In 2008 New Jersey voted for Obama.

10. Ohio (20 electoral cotes) Voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. In 2008 Ohio voted for Obama.

It will be interesting….


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FDR’s 1st Inaugural Address (video)

Listen closely to this……..simplify the verbiage and you have the basis for the speeches being given today..

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The best line, “the unscrupulous money changers now indicted in the court of public opinion” and “there must be an end to speculation with other people’s money”. At the end he asks for “broad executive power”.


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Robert Shiller: "More Tough Times Ahead" (video)

If your day is easily ruined, don’t watch this….but…..he did predict the current situation to a tee.

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Current TARP Recipient List

Only 9 days left to apply…

Wall St. Newsletters

Company: Banner Corp. (BANR)
Participation: Banner received preliminary approval to participate, and the
company plans to issue $124 million in senior preferred shares, with
warrants to purchase up to $18.6 million in common stock.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital will increase Banner’s Tier 1 leverage capital ratio
to about 11.25% from 8.86% at Sept. 30 and its total risk-based capital
ratio to about 13.9% from 11%.

Company: Columbia Banking Systems Inc. (COLB)
Participation: Columbia received preliminary approval and could issue up to
$76.9 million in senior preferred shares and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital would raise Columbia’s total risk-based capital
ratio to about 14% from 11.24% at Sept. 30.

Company: Heritage Financial Corp. (HFWA)
Participation: Heritage received preliminary approval and plans to issue
about $24 million in senior preferred shares, with warrants to purchase
about $3.6 million in common stock.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital would increase Heritage’s risk-based capital ratio
to about 13.5%.

Company: Taylor Capital Group Inc. (TAYC)
Participation: Taylor applied to participate and, if approved, plans to
receive an equity investment of about $105 million.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital would increase Taylor’s total risk-based capital
ratio to about 14%.

Company: Bridge Bancorp (BDGE)
Participation: Bridge is considering participation and has filed a
preliminary proxy statement for a special meeting of shareholders to
approve issuing preferred shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: n/a

Company: Cascade Financial Corp. (CASB)
Participation: Cascade received notice that the U.S. Treasury plans to
invest about $39 million in senior preferred stock and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: The new capital will raise Cascade’s Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio
to about 10% and its total risk-based capital ratio to about 13%.

Company: Midwest Banc Holdings Inc. (MBHI)
Participation: Midwest received preliminary approval to sell $85.5 million
of preferred shares and issue warrants allowing the U.S. Treasury to
acquire $12.8 million of common shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: The infusion would raise the consolidated company and bank
subsidiary pro forma risk-based capital ratios of 11.13% and 10.8%,
respectively.

Company: Pamrapo Bancorp Inc. (PBCI)
Participation: Pamrapo plans to apply and is eligible to receive up to
$11.4 million.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: Assuming full participation, Pamrapo’s Tier 1 capital ratio would
increase to about 11.5% from 9.82% at Sept. 30.

Company: TCF Financial Corp. (TCB)
Participation: TCF received preliminary approval for a $361 million
investment with warrants to buy about 3.2 million common shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: n/a

Company: U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Participation: U.S. Bancorp has received preliminary approval for the sale
of $6.6 billion of preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: The company’s Tier 1 capital ratio would rise to 11.4% from 8.5% at
Sept. 30.

Company: The Bank Holdings Inc. (TBHS)
Participation: The Bank Holdings has applied to participate, including the
issuance of $5 million to $15 million in preferred senior shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 1
Notes: n/a

Company: American West Bancorp (AWBC)
Participation: American West said it plans to apply for $57 million, the
maximum for which it would be eligible.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 31
Notes: n/a

Company: First Financial Bancorp (FFBC)
Participation: First Financial received preliminary approval for the
Treasury to invest $80 million.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 31
Notes: n/a

Company: NewBridge Bancorp (NBBC)
Participation: NewBridge has applied for $52 million.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 31
Notes: n/a

Company: First Community Bancshares Inc. (FCBC)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury approved First Community’s application.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: Chief Executive Officer John M. Mendez said in a conference call
that the company applied for the maximum investment and expects to get
$42.5 million.

Company: Mackinac Financial Corp. (MFNC)
Participation: Mackinac said it plans to participate in the program,
although it has yet to determine the extent to which it will do so.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: The bank and corporation said they remain well capitalized within
regulatory guidelines.

Company: Signature Bank (SBNY)
Participation: Signature applied for a $120 million investment.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: n/a

Company: Simmons First National Corp. (SFNC)
Participation: Simmons received preliminary approval to participate and
expects to sell $40 million of preferred shares through the program.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: n/a

Company: Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $15 billion in Bank of
America.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $3 billion into Bank
of New York Mellon.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Citigroup Inc. (C)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $25 billion into
Citigroup.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $10 billion into
Goldman Sachs.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $25 billion into J.P.
Morgan.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $10 billion into
Merrill Lynch.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Morgan Stanley (MS)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $10 billion into
Morgan Stanley
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $25 billion into Wells
Fargo.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: Wells Fargo said separately that its Tier 1 capital ratio was 8.5%
at Sept. 30, before the injection of new capital.

Company: Whitney Holding Corp. (WTNY)
Participation: Whitney intends to apply and is eligible to receive up to
$282 million.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: Assuming full participation, Whitney’s Tier 1 capital ratio would
increase to about 12.17%.

Company: Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Participation: Fifth Third received notification that the U.S. Treasury
would invest $3.45 billion in the bank’s preferred shares and related
warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28.
Notes: The current investment, on a pro forma basis, would have increased
the bank’s Tier 1 capital ratio at Sept. 30 to about 11.5% from 8.5%,
total capital ratio to 15.3% from 12.3% and ratio of tangible
equity and tangible assets to 9.3% from 6.2%.

Company: International Bancshares Corp. (IBOC)
Participation: Board believes the bank would be eligible for up to $200
million under the program if it secures amendments to allow it to issue
preferred stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: On Oct. 27, the bank’s board approved resolutions to amend bank
by-laws in order to allow it to issue preferred shares and called for a
special shareholder meeting to approve the move.

Company: Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI)
Participation: Marshall & Ilsley received preliminary approval for about
$1.7 billion in capital.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: This capital would raise the company’s Tier 1 and total capital
ratio levels to 10.9% and 14.8%, respectively, from 7.9% and 11.8% at Sept.
30.

Company: Umpqua Holdings Corp. (UMPQ)
Participation: Umpqua received preliminary approval for an investment $214
million in preferred shares with warrants to buy about $32 million in
common stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: The investment will increase Umpqua’s total risk-based capital ratio
to about 14% from 11.2% at Sept. 30.

Company: Zions Bancorp (ZION)
Participation: Zions received preliminary approval for $1.4 billion of
capital.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: The capital would raise Zions Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio to
10.9% from 8.07% and its total risk based capital ratio to 15.13% from
12.3%.

Company: Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
Participation: Capital One received approval to sell $3.55 billion in
preferred stock
and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: City National Corp. (CYN)
Participation: City National received preliminary approval for the Treasury
to invest about $395 million in the company’s preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The investment will increase City National’s Tier 1 capital ratio to
12% from 9.1%.

Company: Comerica Inc. (CMA)
Participation: Comerica received approval to sell $2.25 billion in senior
preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: Comerica said participation in the program is expected to raise its
Tier 1 capital ratio to an estimated 10.35% from an estimated 7.35% at
Sept. 30.

Company: First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (FNFG)
Participation: The Treasury approved investment of up to $186 million in
First Niagara.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: HF Financial Corp. (HFFC)
Participation: HF received preliminary approval to participate and applied
to sell $25 million in preferred shares to the Treasury.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN)
Participation: The Treasury will buy $1.4 billion of preferred shares and
will receive warrants to buy common stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The investment will raise Huntington’s Tier 1 and Total Capital
ratios to 11.9% and 15.1%, respectively, from 8.9% and 12.1%.

Company: KeyCorp (KEY)
Participation: KeyCorp plans to sell $2.5 billion in preferred stock and
warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: KeyCorp said that if it had secured the capital prior to Sept. 30,
its Tier 1 ratio would have been 10.8%, not the 8.5% recorded. The deal was
slated to close within 30 days.

Company: Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)
Participation: The Treasury plans to buy $1.5 billion in senior preferred
and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: Old National Bancorp (ONB)
Participation: Old National was notified by the U.S. Treasury that it would
be eligible, but the bank hasn’t entered into an agreement.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: Provident Bankshares Corp. (PBKS)
Participation: Provident was granted preliminary approval to participate.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: Participation is subject to execution of the program’s required
procedures and approval by the company’s board.

Company: Regions Financial Corp. (RF)
Participation: Regions received preliminary approval to sell $3.5 billion
in preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27.
Notes: The Treasury investment will increase Region’s Tier 1 capital to
about 10.5%. Regions will pay the government a 5% dividend, or $175 million
a year, for each of the first five years of the investment, and 9%
thereafter unless Regions redeems the shares.

Company: State Street Corp. (STT)
Participation: State Street reached a definitive agreement for the U.S.
Treasury to invest $2 billion.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The Treasury will receive 20,000 shares of State Street’s Series B
fixed-rate cumulative perpetual preferred stock, $100,000 liquidation
preference per share, and a 10-year warrant to purchase 5.58 million shares
of State Street’s common stock at an exercise price of
$53.80 a share.

Company: SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI)
Participation: SunTrust received preliminary approval to sell $3.5 billion
preferred stock and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27.
Notes: Chief Executive James M. Wells said he anticipated the “prudent
deployment” of capital in areas such as the expansion of “careful lending”
and business capability, as well as the exploration of potential
acquisitions. Wells also said keeping capital at elevated levels was
desirable given the economic environment. Suntrust simultaneously cut its
quarterly dividend by 30% to 54 cents from 77 cents.

Company: UCBH Holdings Inc. (UCBH)
Participation: UCBH received preliminary approval for a $298 million
Treasury investment.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The new capital will boost UCBH’s risk-based capital ratio to
15% from 12.5%.

Company: Washington Federal Inc. (WFSL)
Participation: Washington Federal will issue $200 million in senior
preferred shares, with warrants to purchase up to $30 million in common
stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 26
Notes: n/a

Company: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
Participation: First Horizon will receive about $866 million in capital.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 24
Notes: The investment will increase the company’s Tier 1 capital ratio to
14.1% from 10.9%.

Company: PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC)
Participation: PNC will sell $7.7 billion of preferred shares and warrants
to finance its stock-and-cash purchase of National City Corp. (NCC).
Date of disclosure: Oct. 24
Notes: n/a

Company: Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
Participation: Valley was approved to sell $330 million in nonvoting senior
preferred shares.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 24
Notes: Valley has “no plan or current need” to participate in other aspects
of TARP, specifically the sale of troubled assets.


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So, The Election is Over Where to Invest

The papers and the internet are filled with recommendation for you about the “Obama Trade”. In other words, what stocks will most likely benefit from an Obama presidency.

Wall St. Newsletters

I’ll save the linking to the 1,000 plus posts today alone. Here is a Google Search for them though….only 2.1 million hits

So, what to do? Should we sell defense stocks like Boeing (BA), Lockhead Martin (LMT) and Northrup Grumman (NOC)? Should we also sell Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) since he has tralked about taxing their “windfall profits”.

Should be be buyers of healthcare stocks like Tenent (THC), United Health (UNH) and WellPoint (WLP) since any government sponsored health plan will be a boon for their business? What about alternative energy plays like First Solar (FSLR) and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Obama has pledged more money for this sector after all.

What to do now? Nothing.

During the election, everything is promised to everyone by every candidate. Now reality sets in. Choices have to be made and not everything promised will be delivered. IF, Obama is truly going to be a candidate of “change” then the old political party based investing rules do not apply.

On the other hand, he may have debts to pay to those who elected him and move to satisfy those folks.

We don’t know and committing money to a certain area on a hunch of what he and the congress may actually do, is risky. There are too many factors in the price of a stock or a sector for anyone to say “x” company will for well the next 4 years. If the company is run by a dolt, does it matter who sits in the White House? If we throw billions of dollars at the ethanol industry and then a natural disaster destroys the corn crop, does the Democrat or Republican in the WH matter?

If Exxon hits a gusher and oil prices plummet, the public’s desire to spend money on alternative fuels will be eliminated.

What about 2010? 19 Senate seats (out of 100) are up for grabs. If the GOP regains control, current plans may be derailed and a new set of priorities may emerge.

What if Iran follows through will its pledge to try and wipe Israel off the map? Anyone care to wager that would not cause an instant and dramatic increase in defense spending?

Simply pick good companies trading at attractive prices. Fortunately, there are plenty of them around right now.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM, none
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Wilbur Ross & Jack Welch on Ford & GM: Video ($F), ($GM)

There is a nice back and forh here between Wilbur and GE’s (GE) former CEO Jack Welch.

Wall St. Newsletters

They cover GM (GM), Ford (F) and what they think needs to happen going forward.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GE, none
Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books