Category: Articles

Only 9 days left to apply…

Company: Banner Corp. (BANR)
Participation: Banner received preliminary approval to participate, and the
company plans to issue $124 million in senior preferred shares, with
warrants to purchase up to $18.6 million in common stock.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital will increase Banner’s Tier 1 leverage capital ratio
to about 11.25% from 8.86% at Sept. 30 and its total risk-based capital
ratio to about 13.9% from 11%.

Company: Columbia Banking Systems Inc. (COLB)
Participation: Columbia received preliminary approval and could issue up to
$76.9 million in senior preferred shares and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital would raise Columbia’s total risk-based capital
ratio to about 14% from 11.24% at Sept. 30.

Company: Heritage Financial Corp. (HFWA)
Participation: Heritage received preliminary approval and plans to issue
about $24 million in senior preferred shares, with warrants to purchase
about $3.6 million in common stock.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital would increase Heritage’s risk-based capital ratio
to about 13.5%.

Company: Taylor Capital Group Inc. (TAYC)
Participation: Taylor applied to participate and, if approved, plans to
receive an equity investment of about $105 million.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 4
Notes: The new capital would increase Taylor’s total risk-based capital
ratio to about 14%.

Company: Bridge Bancorp (BDGE)
Participation: Bridge is considering participation and has filed a
preliminary proxy statement for a special meeting of shareholders to
approve issuing preferred shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: n/a

Company: Cascade Financial Corp. (CASB)
Participation: Cascade received notice that the U.S. Treasury plans to
invest about $39 million in senior preferred stock and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: The new capital will raise Cascade’s Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio
to about 10% and its total risk-based capital ratio to about 13%.

Company: Midwest Banc Holdings Inc. (MBHI)
Participation: Midwest received preliminary approval to sell $85.5 million
of preferred shares and issue warrants allowing the U.S. Treasury to
acquire $12.8 million of common shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: The infusion would raise the consolidated company and bank
subsidiary pro forma risk-based capital ratios of 11.13% and 10.8%,
respectively.

Company: Pamrapo Bancorp Inc. (PBCI)
Participation: Pamrapo plans to apply and is eligible to receive up to
$11.4 million.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: Assuming full participation, Pamrapo’s Tier 1 capital ratio would
increase to about 11.5% from 9.82% at Sept. 30.

Company: TCF Financial Corp. (TCB)
Participation: TCF received preliminary approval for a $361 million
investment with warrants to buy about 3.2 million common shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: n/a

Company: U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Participation: U.S. Bancorp has received preliminary approval for the sale
of $6.6 billion of preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 3
Notes: The company’s Tier 1 capital ratio would rise to 11.4% from 8.5% at
Sept. 30.

Company: The Bank Holdings Inc. (TBHS)
Participation: The Bank Holdings has applied to participate, including the
issuance of $5 million to $15 million in preferred senior shares.
Date of disclosure: Nov. 1
Notes: n/a

Company: American West Bancorp (AWBC)
Participation: American West said it plans to apply for $57 million, the
maximum for which it would be eligible.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 31
Notes: n/a

Company: First Financial Bancorp (FFBC)
Participation: First Financial received preliminary approval for the
Treasury to invest $80 million.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 31
Notes: n/a

Company: NewBridge Bancorp (NBBC)
Participation: NewBridge has applied for $52 million.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 31
Notes: n/a

Company: First Community Bancshares Inc. (FCBC)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury approved First Community’s application.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: Chief Executive Officer John M. Mendez said in a conference call
that the company applied for the maximum investment and expects to get
$42.5 million.

Company: Mackinac Financial Corp. (MFNC)
Participation: Mackinac said it plans to participate in the program,
although it has yet to determine the extent to which it will do so.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: The bank and corporation said they remain well capitalized within
regulatory guidelines.

Company: Signature Bank (SBNY)
Participation: Signature applied for a $120 million investment.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: n/a

Company: Simmons First National Corp. (SFNC)
Participation: Simmons received preliminary approval to participate and
expects to sell $40 million of preferred shares through the program.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 30
Notes: n/a

Company: Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $15 billion in Bank of
America.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Bank of New York Mellon (BK)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $3 billion into Bank
of New York Mellon.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Citigroup Inc. (C)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $25 billion into
Citigroup.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $10 billion into
Goldman Sachs.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $25 billion into J.P.
Morgan.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $10 billion into
Merrill Lynch.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Morgan Stanley (MS)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $10 billion into
Morgan Stanley
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: n/a

Company: Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC)
Participation: The U.S. Treasury said it will inject $25 billion into Wells
Fargo.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: Wells Fargo said separately that its Tier 1 capital ratio was 8.5%
at Sept. 30, before the injection of new capital.

Company: Whitney Holding Corp. (WTNY)
Participation: Whitney intends to apply and is eligible to receive up to
$282 million.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 29
Notes: Assuming full participation, Whitney’s Tier 1 capital ratio would
increase to about 12.17%.

Company: Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Participation: Fifth Third received notification that the U.S. Treasury
would invest $3.45 billion in the bank’s preferred shares and related
warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28.
Notes: The current investment, on a pro forma basis, would have increased
the bank’s Tier 1 capital ratio at Sept. 30 to about 11.5% from 8.5%,
total capital ratio to 15.3% from 12.3% and ratio of tangible
equity and tangible assets to 9.3% from 6.2%.

Company: International Bancshares Corp. (IBOC)
Participation: Board believes the bank would be eligible for up to $200
million under the program if it secures amendments to allow it to issue
preferred stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: On Oct. 27, the bank’s board approved resolutions to amend bank
by-laws in order to allow it to issue preferred shares and called for a
special shareholder meeting to approve the move.

Company: Marshall & Ilsley Corp. (MI)
Participation: Marshall & Ilsley received preliminary approval for about
$1.7 billion in capital.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: This capital would raise the company’s Tier 1 and total capital
ratio levels to 10.9% and 14.8%, respectively, from 7.9% and 11.8% at Sept.
30.

Company: Umpqua Holdings Corp. (UMPQ)
Participation: Umpqua received preliminary approval for an investment $214
million in preferred shares with warrants to buy about $32 million in
common stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: The investment will increase Umpqua’s total risk-based capital ratio
to about 14% from 11.2% at Sept. 30.

Company: Zions Bancorp (ZION)
Participation: Zions received preliminary approval for $1.4 billion of
capital.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 28
Notes: The capital would raise Zions Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio to
10.9% from 8.07% and its total risk based capital ratio to 15.13% from
12.3%.

Company: Capital One Financial Corp. (COF)
Participation: Capital One received approval to sell $3.55 billion in
preferred stock
and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: City National Corp. (CYN)
Participation: City National received preliminary approval for the Treasury
to invest about $395 million in the company’s preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The investment will increase City National’s Tier 1 capital ratio to
12% from 9.1%.

Company: Comerica Inc. (CMA)
Participation: Comerica received approval to sell $2.25 billion in senior
preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: Comerica said participation in the program is expected to raise its
Tier 1 capital ratio to an estimated 10.35% from an estimated 7.35% at
Sept. 30.

Company: First Niagara Financial Group Inc. (FNFG)
Participation: The Treasury approved investment of up to $186 million in
First Niagara.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: HF Financial Corp. (HFFC)
Participation: HF received preliminary approval to participate and applied
to sell $25 million in preferred shares to the Treasury.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN)
Participation: The Treasury will buy $1.4 billion of preferred shares and
will receive warrants to buy common stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The investment will raise Huntington’s Tier 1 and Total Capital
ratios to 11.9% and 15.1%, respectively, from 8.9% and 12.1%.

Company: KeyCorp (KEY)
Participation: KeyCorp plans to sell $2.5 billion in preferred stock and
warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: KeyCorp said that if it had secured the capital prior to Sept. 30,
its Tier 1 ratio would have been 10.8%, not the 8.5% recorded. The deal was
slated to close within 30 days.

Company: Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS)
Participation: The Treasury plans to buy $1.5 billion in senior preferred
and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: Old National Bancorp (ONB)
Participation: Old National was notified by the U.S. Treasury that it would
be eligible, but the bank hasn’t entered into an agreement.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: n/a

Company: Provident Bankshares Corp. (PBKS)
Participation: Provident was granted preliminary approval to participate.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: Participation is subject to execution of the program’s required
procedures and approval by the company’s board.

Company: Regions Financial Corp. (RF)
Participation: Regions received preliminary approval to sell $3.5 billion
in preferred stock and warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27.
Notes: The Treasury investment will increase Region’s Tier 1 capital to
about 10.5%. Regions will pay the government a 5% dividend, or $175 million
a year, for each of the first five years of the investment, and 9%
thereafter unless Regions redeems the shares.

Company: State Street Corp. (STT)
Participation: State Street reached a definitive agreement for the U.S.
Treasury to invest $2 billion.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The Treasury will receive 20,000 shares of State Street’s Series B
fixed-rate cumulative perpetual preferred stock, $100,000 liquidation
preference per share, and a 10-year warrant to purchase 5.58 million shares
of State Street’s common stock at an exercise price of
$53.80 a share.

Company: SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI)
Participation: SunTrust received preliminary approval to sell $3.5 billion
preferred stock and related warrants.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27.
Notes: Chief Executive James M. Wells said he anticipated the “prudent
deployment” of capital in areas such as the expansion of “careful lending”
and business capability, as well as the exploration of potential
acquisitions. Wells also said keeping capital at elevated levels was
desirable given the economic environment. Suntrust simultaneously cut its
quarterly dividend by 30% to 54 cents from 77 cents.

Company: UCBH Holdings Inc. (UCBH)
Participation: UCBH received preliminary approval for a $298 million
Treasury investment.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 27
Notes: The new capital will boost UCBH’s risk-based capital ratio to
15% from 12.5%.

Company: Washington Federal Inc. (WFSL)
Participation: Washington Federal will issue $200 million in senior
preferred shares, with warrants to purchase up to $30 million in common
stock.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 26
Notes: n/a

Company: First Horizon National Corp. (FHN)
Participation: First Horizon will receive about $866 million in capital.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 24
Notes: The investment will increase the company’s Tier 1 capital ratio to
14.1% from 10.9%.

Company: PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC)
Participation: PNC will sell $7.7 billion of preferred shares and warrants
to finance its stock-and-cash purchase of National City Corp. (NCC).
Date of disclosure: Oct. 24
Notes: n/a

Company: Valley National Bancorp (VLY)
Participation: Valley was approved to sell $330 million in nonvoting senior
preferred shares.
Date of disclosure: Oct. 24
Notes: Valley has “no plan or current need” to participate in other aspects
of TARP, specifically the sale of troubled assets.

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The papers and the internet are filled with recommendation for you about the “Obama Trade”. In other words, what stocks will most likely benefit from an Obama presidency.

I’ll save the linking to the 1,000 plus posts today alone. Here is a Google Search for them though….only 2.1 million hits

So, what to do? Should we sell defense stocks like Boeing (BA), Lockhead Martin (LMT) and Northrup Grumman (NOC)? Should we also sell Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) since he has tralked about taxing their “windfall profits”.

Should be be buyers of healthcare stocks like Tenent (THC), United Health (UNH) and WellPoint (WLP) since any government sponsored health plan will be a boon for their business? What about alternative energy plays like First Solar (FSLR) and Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Obama has pledged more money for this sector after all.

What to do now? Nothing.

During the election, everything is promised to everyone by every candidate. Now reality sets in. Choices have to be made and not everything promised will be delivered. IF, Obama is truly going to be a candidate of “change” then the old political party based investing rules do not apply.

On the other hand, he may have debts to pay to those who elected him and move to satisfy those folks.

We don’t know and committing money to a certain area on a hunch of what he and the congress may actually do, is risky. There are too many factors in the price of a stock or a sector for anyone to say “x” company will for well the next 4 years. If the company is run by a dolt, does it matter who sits in the White House? If we throw billions of dollars at the ethanol industry and then a natural disaster destroys the corn crop, does the Democrat or Republican in the WH matter?

If Exxon hits a gusher and oil prices plummet, the public’s desire to spend money on alternative fuels will be eliminated.

What about 2010? 19 Senate seats (out of 100) are up for grabs. If the GOP regains control, current plans may be derailed and a new set of priorities may emerge.

What if Iran follows through will its pledge to try and wipe Israel off the map? Anyone care to wager that would not cause an instant and dramatic increase in defense spending?

Simply pick good companies trading at attractive prices. Fortunately, there are plenty of them around right now.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM, none
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There is a nice back and forh here between Wilbur and GE’s (GE) former CEO Jack Welch.

They cover GM (GM), Ford (F) and what they think needs to happen going forward.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GE, none
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Both the bond insurers situation is deteriorating…

Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI) both reported widening Q3 and 9 month

Ambac reported and announced third quarter 2008 net loss of $2,431.2 million, or net loss of $8.45 on a per share basis. This compares to third quarter 2007 net loss of $360.6 million, or net loss of $3.53 on a per share basis. The increased net loss in the third quarter of 2008 is primarily due to recording net mark-to-market losses on credit derivatives, increased loss provisioning primarily related to second-lien residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) insurance transactions and market losses on RMBS within the financial services investment portfolio, partially offset by increased accelerated premiums from refundings.

MBIA (MBI) reported a net loss of $1.5 billion, or $6.97 per share, for the first nine months of 2008, compared with net income of $373.8 million, or $2.84 per share, during the same period in 2007. The Company recorded a net loss of $806.5 million, or $3.48 per share, for the third quarter of 2008, driven primarily by increases to loss reserves on the Company’s second lien residential mortgage exposures and net realized and unrealized losses attributable to the Company’s Asset Liability Management (ALM) business. The net loss for the third quarter of 2007 was $36.6 million or $0.30 per share.
Ambac

One has to wonder how long this can go on…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Sex, Gadget, Curve, Gas

– How did they study this?

– This is cool

– Folks are raving about this

– 48 straight days of decreases

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Mohawk, which has Bruce Berkowitz, Raune / Cunniff and Wally Weitz as major holders saw operating profits fall 38%.

Mohawk Industries Inc.,(MHK) the Calhoun, Ga., producer of flooring and carpet, swung to a $1.39 billion third-quarter net loss, after impairment write-downs on intangibles and deferred tax assets. The loss equaled $20.37 a share, after the charges of $1.22 billion for intangibles and $253 million for tax assets. Adjusted profit was $76 million, or $1.10 a share. That’s off 38% from the year-earlier period’s net income of $122 million, or $1.78 a share. Sales fell 9% to $1.76 billion from $1.94 billion, Mohawk reported late on Monday. A survey of analysts by FactSet Research produced consensus estimates of $1.11 of profit on $1.77 billion of sales. Accounting rules required the write-offs due to the company’s lower stock price and to weakening industry conditions, Mohawk said. U.S. consumers are “reducing discretionary expenditures,” Chairman and CEO Jeffrey S. Lorberbaum said.

“Residential home sales and remodeling are at low levels and commercial projects are being impacted by tightening credit and softening business conditions. The European economy has become significantly weaker and affected both our flooring and non-flooring products.” The company expects to earn an adjusted 20 cents to 30 cents a share in the fourth quarter. The figures exclude a charge of $25 million to $30 million tied to closing facilities. FactSet’s survey was looking for 95 cents. Results in 2009 should improve from second-half 2008, Mohawk said.

Mohawk follows building materials maker USG (USG) who also slipped to a loss this quarter.

Bottom fishers might find large value here in these names. They will also have to exercise extreme patience as the recovery might be a rocky one.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none
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This wasn’t even close…

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) said Tuesday that first-quarter earnings were $1.05 billion, or $1.63 a share, compared to $441 million, or 68 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. Net sales rose 65% to $ 21.16 billion for the quarter ended September 30, mostly due to higher average selling prices resulting primarily from year-over-year increases in underlying commodity costs. Analysts polled by FactSet Research estimated, on average, earnings per share of 67 cents and sales of $15.79 billion.

“This record quarter again demonstrates the ability of our people to utilize our integrated global network and financial strength to capitalize on opportunities and further affirms our business model and strategy,” said Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer Patricia Woertz. “Our strong balance sheet and credit rating provide us with the flexibility to access the most cost-efficient credit markets. Our market acumen coupled with this financial strength enables us to recognize and promptly act upon opportunities when they arise.”

Segment operating profit for the quarter increased 48 % to
$ 1.18 billion from $ 797 million last year.

* Oilseeds Processing operating profit increased on improved global crushing and origination margins, improved margins for value-added products and increased equity earnings of our Asian affiliates.
* Corn Processing operating profit decreased due principally to sharply higher net corn and energy costs partially offset by increased sales volumes and average selling prices for sweeteners and starches, ethanol and lysine.
* Agricultural Services operating profit increased due principally to improved margins resulting from opportunities created by market volatility, global shifts in sources of grain supplies and the delayed US harvest.
* Other operating profit increased due principally to improved cocoa processing volumes and margins and improved wheat processing margins.

For some inexplicable reason, investors still view ADM as an ethanol company like Pacific Ethanol (PEIX) and recent bankruptcy victim VeraSun (VSE). It isn’t. ADM is a food commodity company. Like Exxon (XOM) is a play on the commodity oil, ADM is a play on food and food items.

Yes, ethanol is a significant contributor to the overall picture but it is far from being the whole picture. ADM produces bio-diesel, cocoa, cooking oil, bio-plastics and has a massive commodity trading arm. The volatility is agricultural prices help ADM in this area.

As the world’s population grows and as it develops from a pure agrarian society to one that is more protien based, ADM is at the crux of that transition.

It will profit for years from it.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM, none
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Long time readers would have seen this coming as we have covered LeapFrog (LF) for over a year now.

For the third quarter 2008, the company reported net sales of $194.6 million and net income of $24.0 million, or $0.38 per share. This compares to net sales of $144.0 million and a net loss of $10.3 million, or $0.16 per share, for the third quarter 2007. In addition to the 35% increase in net sales, the improved financial results included higher gross margin and lower operating expenses year-over-year.

LeapFrog President and Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey G. Katz stated, “We entered 2008 planning for our largest and most important launch year ever, and our third quarter results were on track with our expectations. Third quarter sales were driven by the continued roll-out of our new products, notably our Leapster2 and Didj educational gaming systems, and the Tag reading system in our international markets. These launches went well and our products have already won numerous awards and strong holiday toy accolades in the media, which we think bodes well for when holiday consumers finally come out of their bunkers. And we think they will come out. But, we doubt we can completely compensate for the recent softness in retail trends and so we are going to moderate our expectation for full year sales growth.”

Leapfrog updated full year guidance and bow sees revenue up 10%-15%, which implies $486.5 million to $508.6 million, below the Street at $524.8 million.

The full-year guidance implies Q4 revenue of $163.3 million to $187.4 million, considerably below Q3, and short of the Street at $219.8 million.

This is a very conservative estimates based in the current retail condition. I am not sure I agree with it. I think Leapfrog sits in an enviable position. Its products are sought after but not budget busters. Rather than skip a Leapfrog purchase for the holidays, I am thinking customers will still buy the Leapfrog and ensure the money for it by omitting some of the other more miscellaneous purchases.

Katz has always been one to under promise and over delivers, there is no reason to think he is not doing the same thing now.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long LF
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Some thoughts before we vote tomorrow….I can’t wait until this thing is over..

A Note. These are observations. I am not saying that people who may or may not think this way are “right or wrong”, I am saying that this is a thought process based on my observations. You can vote for a candidate for whatever reason you want. I don’t care. It is your vote, cast it as you so choose. The media will attempt to explain it all to us and I am simply placing my two cents in the ring since I have not heard it said yet..Take them for what you will..

1- Race:
An Obama loss will have nothing to do with his race. If it really did, he would not even be sitting where he is right now. A racist society, or one with a “race issue” would not have allowed an Obama candidacy to even develop much less get to its present state. He does not need to win to prove the US is “not racist”. His existence as a serious candidate is proof of that. Now, the argument can be made that certain folks will not vote for him because of race. That is true. It is also true that millions are voting for him simply because of it. The existence of racists in a society does not make the society itself racist. The implication that it does means that any society or class of people is defined by its lowest element. Since we reject that in classes of people, we cannot extrapolate that to a society as it is the sum of those very people. It is the action of the society as a whole that defines it. The fact that society is on the precipice of possibly electing a leader from a minority class of it mandates that a large portion of the majority must vote for that candidate. That eliminates the argument the society is inherently racist. Were is so, the minority candidate would not stand even a remote chance.

If we have to have the race commentary (we do since it will be all that it is talked about after), let’s break it down to simple math. We know well in excess of 90% of African American’s (is that still the proper vernacular?) are voting for Obama based on votes cast in the primaries. This crushes the percentage of any other election for any candidate the group has voted for. The only conclusion is that they are voting for him simply due to his race. Isn’t that the very thing Martin Luther King tried to avoid? Wasn’t the quote “I hope one day men are judged by the content of their character, not the color of their skin”? Is voting “for” anyone because of the color of their skin any less racist that voting “against” one due to it? Or is not mentioning it simply the acceptable rationalization?

Oprah Winfrey can tell us all day long that Obama is right for America and she believes in him. But, if we are being honest, really honest, we all know why Oprah backs him. Oprah has been silent on politics until now. No candidate for public office before has caused her to speak out. No subject, no legislation and no gender has caused her public backing of a candidate. Yet she backs Obama. Fine, but lets just come out and give us the real reason. His race. If that is the reason she wants him there, fine. She can vote for whomever for whatever reason she wants, let just not try and pretend he is that unique. He has no special policy or unheard of idea that make him unlike any other politician that has run during her public life. He does have one thing.

I find very little difference between folks who refuse to vote for person “a” because of their race or gender and those who will only vote for “a” because of their race or gender and aren’t honest enough to admit it. Either way you dragging MLK’s “Dream” through the mud.

This is the “Race Issue” of this election, not what the media would try and have us believe..

2- Electoral College:
It really does not matter if 99% of those living in NY or California vote for Obama, he will still only get the 86 electoral votes those states offer. It really does not matter if Obama wins the popular vote, you only need 1 more vote than the other guy to get the electoral votes. In this way the college works exactly the way the framers meant it to. It moderates the influence one group from one area has over the whole. For more on it and its origins, read here

3- Taxes:
This summer Obama said he would raise capital gains taxes. Then he said he wouldn’t. Then he said 95% of people get a tax break. Then he said people under $250k would. Then Joe Biden said people under $150K would. Now his adviser Bill Richardson said people under $120k will. Call it the “incredible shrinking tax break”. People in the current environment has no problem with “rich folks” getting a tax increase. The problem is that the definition of rich has been plummeting recently and now encompasses those who just aren’t. People see it for what it is and will think twice about voting for a candidate with a fluctuating definition of who deserves to pay more. These voters will have a last minute change of heart and no polls will reflect it.

4- MSM.
We American’s know a snow-job when we see it. Every poll taking at every levels says the same thing. The media has treated Obama with kid gloves. This isn’t a GOP vs Dem thing, this goes back to Dems vs Dems saying it when the issue was one of their own, Hillary. It is just acceptable now that it is the “other guy” we are talking about. What happens is people, feeling that they are not getting the straight story from the MSM go looking for it in other places. They begin to discount and distrust what is said from the MSM. The easiest place to find alternative information is the internet. Here is where that hurts Obama. We all know about political information on the internet and it questionable veracity. When people do their own research and find negative information on Obama, it is viewed as “this is what the media is hiding from us” and looked at more truthfully, providing a negative effect for Obama. When the same information is seen about McCain, the effect is negligible as we have already heard it from the MSM and this cause it to be discounted. Whether what is being said is true or not is immaterial, it is the perception of the information that leads to it acceptance or ejection.

Again, right or wrong, is irrelevant, is what it is. The media, in it zeal to effect the outcome, hurts its own cause. If anyone thinks the average voter has forgotten CBS’s “National Guard forged document” story in 2004 that cost Dan Rather his career and that is not the lens most people put any media report through, is living in denial.

5- The “Undecided”:
They aren’t. They just want pollsters to leave them alone. They are the un-ideological masses in the middle. They tend to lean center-right. They are social liberal and economic conservatives. They are the group that most identifies with Palin and her family. They are also the group most sensitive to the attacks on her children, her clothing and her “inexperience”. They are the group who can’t understand how a Governor has less experience than a 2 year Senator. They are also the group not thrilled with politicians and like someone who reminds them of themselves. The hockey mom, mom of a “challenged” kid, mom of a unwed pregnant daughter, mom of five, dedicated wife….they like that. Where the media sees “black eyes” , they see themselves, their neighbor, their sister. When the MSM attacks her, they attack them. This causes the gut reaction of “circling the wagons” and an innate sense protection. This will sway their vote.

6- Divided government.
The electorate has done a decent job over the years not giving one group a blanket mandate. They will do so again this year. This means either of two things. The congressional races do not go the way the pundits say they will, OR Obama loses. We know congressional democrats will raise taxes. We know we don’t want that. We also know if we vote in Ohio we cannot affect a vote in Wisconsin for Congress. How can we assure government is divided? Vote for McCain.

7- Polls
People are now playing games with pollsters. They are meaningless. George Bush trailed both Gore and Kerry late in October only to win. Bush trailed in “exit polls” in several states only to win them also. Both parties have found a way to game pollsters in order to keep races looking tight to keep voters coming out for their candidate. For this reason, polls are not only worthless, they may actually be a counter indication. If a organization thinks they may be losing or have a razor thin margin, they will make the exit polls reflect a negative outcome to keep their folks coming out and the others to stay home. We know it happened in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004, no reason to think anything has changed.

My prediction?

Obama beats McCain in the popular vote and losses the election…..

I would also be shocked if there was not a legal challenge somewhere to whatever outcome there is..

It will give the media years of angst about the electoral college and enable them to try an re-write the constitution. The Constitution was purposely set up to eliminate as best it could government by a few, a whim, or emotion. It does a very good job or that. The electoral college also does a great job of not minimizing smaller states and their minority of the population. It matters and is important, it forces all views and needs to be considered.

Then again, if Obama wins in a landslide……never mind…

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As much as I do tend to disagree with Rogers on his doomsday scenario, he is right about the bailout, I still think hew is off on the degree.

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Can’t we just call it quits n this? It been over a year now..

The Blackstone (BX) IPO in June of 2007 was the peak of the Private Equity market.

Dealbook has a nice take on it. This is not the time for an IPO. Doing so now, looks just a little bit desperate. It also must make potential investors think twice about KKR. Why has it taken so long?

Either do it or don’t, but enough is enough..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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