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GDP Revised Up to 3.3%……..Economists?

This is an update to a post the other day when Durable Goods was released.

Watch the video:

Now, economists were shocked when Q2 GDP came in at 2.7% because they were anticipating growth of under 2%. This isn’t a scenario where I am harping because they were a at 3.0$ and it came in at 3.3%. we are talking about error rates here in excess of 50%. Don’t forget they expected durable good to be DOWN .4% and they were UP 1.4%.

These are fantastic error margins and when you combine the two, it simply means that economists are FAR too negative in their outlook. Unemployment, by every historical measure is low…

Take what these guys say with a grain of salt…

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Dinallo on MBIA / FGIC Deal

If MBIA (MBI, Ambac (ABK) or FGIC fail, it won’t be because the NYC Insurance Commissioner did not do all he could to assure their survival. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) was a bidder for the book also.

I think those who are still short on MBIA or Ambac have seen the most of their gains. If the NYC Insurance Dept. has not moved to force actions from either company that would wipe out shareholders at this point, I don’t think one should be thinking they will.

Dinallo does make the point that while large, heavily populated municipalities may not need the bond insurers, there are “thousands” of small municipalities that do need it. It that sense, the business of both companies is still needed.


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Friday’s Links

Tobacco, GDP, Baby, Gumshoe

– FDA bill looks to be delayed

Still growing

– I guess this is why they say not to fly in the last trimester?

– Uncovering more scams


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Sears Holdings…….Some "Short" Math

Let’s look at some numbers in stock ownership of Sears Holdings (SHLD)..

ESL Investments, Inc.= 65.6 million
Legg Mason Capital Management, Inc.= 12.5 million
Fairholme (Bruce Berkowitz)= 12.3 million
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.= 6.7 million
Total= 97.1 million shares or 77% of the total outstanding

As of 8/15, 33 million shares were short.

So, Sears has 126 million shares outstanding as of 8/2, 97.1 owned by people famous for long holding periods, and 33 million short.

By now you are saying, those numbers do not add up. I know. Is SEC commissioner Chris Cox concerned about naked shorting in Sears shares? Apparently not because, if the above 4 decide not to sell, there are not enough shares outstanding for the shorts to cover (the above number of shareholders does not include any other owners of sears shares, only those four).

That is the reason the price is up today. Shorts thought about another earnings loss, did not get it and realize Sears will be ok. They probably can do the above math also. So, many have made their money and now are buying to cover, 3.8 million shares traded today at 2:30 vs a daily average of 3.5 million on a VERY slow trading day.


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Altria Raises Dividend, Now Yields 6.1%

Altria is just drooling cash…..

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) today announced that its Board of Directors voted to increase the company’s regular quarterly dividend. The new quarterly dividend of $0.32 per common share is up 10.3% from the previous rate of $0.29 per common share, and represents an annualized rate of $1.28 per common share. The quarterly dividend is payable on October 10, 2008 to stockholders of record as of September 15, 2008. The ex-dividend date is September 11, 2008.

At the current $20.90 a share price, that equates to a 6.1% dividend yield….


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More Details on Dow Chemical / Rohm & Haas Deal

For those who think the price Dow Chemical (DOW) paid for Rohm & Haas (ROH) was too high, it turn out there were two other bidders in the same ballpark, BASF (BASFY) and another.


Chemical Week Reports
(sub. required)

Rohm and Haas (R&H) approached Dow Chemical and two other companies in early June to gauge their interest in acquiring R&H, a move that resulted in Dow’s July 10 acquisition agreement, says a recent R&H SEC filing. The surprise move late last year by the Haas family trusts, which control 32% of R&H shares, to seek the sale of its stake was the driver behind the R&H sale. Dow’s $18.8-billion, or $78/share, bid bested a $75/share offer from another chemical maker identified in the filing only as “company A.” BASF told CW last month that it placed a bid but declined to reveal the amount of its offer (CW, July 7/14, p. 7).

Haas trusts representatives told R&H chairman and CEO Raj Gupta in November 2007 that the trusts would seek to sell “all or substantially all” of their holdings within 12-18 months, the filing says. “Based on the trusts’ prior conduct, the company’s board of directors did not anticipate the request of the Haas trusts,” the filing says.

R&H and its financial adviser Goldman Sachs (New York) discussed several steps during the next six months to address the sale or purchase of the trusts’ holdings as well as other possible alternatives including putting R&H up for sale, the filings say. The group held discussions in April and May regarding R&H repurchasing a small percentage of the trusts’ shares as part of a deal that called for the trusts’ remaining holdings to be sold over a three-year period, R&H says.

R&H’s management maintained a strong desire to remain independent through negotiations, but management and the board were concerned about market and industry reaction to a sale by the trusts, the filings say. In early June, Gupta held separate discussions with Dow chairman and CEO Andrew Liveris as well as the CEO of company A, believed to be BASF, regarding their interest in R&H, the filings say. Gupta subsequently had a similar conversation with the third company’s CEO, it adds.

Dow responded with an initial offer of $74/share on June 16, which prompted R&H to conduct a “targeted process” among Dow and the two other potential acquirers, the filings say. Company A responded with an offer of $70/share. R&H requested definitive acquisition proposals, which resulted in a $76/share bid from Dow, and a $75/share bid from company A. R&H once again contacted the two companies seeking higher bids.

Dow submitted a $78/share bid on July 9, and company A submitted a revised agreement that improved certain terms but did not increase its offer, R&H says. Dow and R&H signed a definitive agreement that included a voting agreement with the Haas trusts.

In the very near future shareholders will be sitting back enjoying the fruits of this deal….very near…


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Starbucks’ Confusing Memo

So, Howard Schultz the billionaire will not get a salary raise at Starbucks (SBUX) this year. This is news why? The memo gets leaked and then there is a section in it that catches my eye.

From the memo:

All U.S. vice presidents and above, including Howard Schultz and the senior leadership team, will receive no salary increases this year.

Based on Starbucks year-to-date performance, we are not currently on track to reach the requisite financial targets for the General Management Incentive Plan (GMIP). When we announce FY08 results in November, GMIP participants will learn more about the status of bonus payouts.

What status? If you are not on track to meet the targets, there ought to be nothing, correct? Or, are we going to play the Circuit City (CC) game of lowering the target and give them a bonus in lieu or a “raise next year”? Or, are we going to lower targets and increase incentives for next year so it all comes out in the wash? That statement was just way too ambiguous for me.

I am going to watch this. Think about it. How far has the brand fallen when corporate actions can be looked at in the same vein as those at Circuit City?

View full memo


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More Thoughts on Sears’ Quarter

Retails is lousy now, we know that and Sears is in the unenviable position of being both a clothing retailer and a housing supplier (appliances, tools etc.). With the expected downturn there, how did we hold up and are the reason we invested in the company still valid??

In a word yes. Here are the key take-away points (more will be available when the 10-Q is filed Friday). Remember, I expected a small loss

– $500m inventory reduction
– Added 65 net stores since last year which consist of Home Appliance Showrooms, dealer stores and outlet stores, and have continued to expand online and multi-channel capabilities. In May they nearly quadrupled the number books, DVDs, music and software available at sears.com.
– CEO Bruce Johnson said, “We expect to generate higher EBITDA in the second half of this year as compared to the corresponding period in 2007 as we benefit from our lower domestic inventory levels and continued vigilant expense management. Given our year-to-date results and the state of the economy, our current full-year EBITDA forecast, which assumes flat to modest comparable store sales declines for the rest of the year, is comparable to, but no longer exceeds, last year’s EBITDA”.
– Repurchased $5.6 million shares in Q2 bringing outstanding count to 126 million as of 8/2 (watch the 10-Q Friday, Lampert is famous for buying shares between the end of the quarter and the 10-Q filing).
– Cash sat at $1.5 billion, down $100m from Q1.
– LT Debt reduced from $2.6b in Q1 to $2.2b in Q2

So, why did we buy Sears? Lampert was producing profits, reducing debt, buying back shares and fixing two bankrupt retailers (Kmart was BK and Sears was days away from it).

All of those items are still happening. Yes, profits are falling (key word being profits) but so are those at JC Penny (JCP), Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW), Macy’s (M) etc. What we want to know is, if we assume sales and profits are going to fall until the economy and in Sears case, housing stabilizes, what is happening to the financial condition of the company?

In the case of Sears, the balance sheet is in the top echelon of retailers with the exception of Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT).

Cash is stable, debt is being reduced and shares repurchased. Shorts are going to get squeezed here. Ackman, Lampert and Berkowitz will not dump shares and they hold roughly 65% to 70% of the total and Lampert keeps reducing share count through the buybacks. If you do the math, there are plenty of shorts out there “swimming naked” that will be fighting for shares when they have to cover.

That, will cause a surge in shares, a big one….


Full SEC Filing


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American Express: "Junk"?

This is how you know the market is suffering a severe dislocation in valuations..

American Express (AXP) recently sold a bond issue that yielded 7.34%. 7.34%? for reference anything above 7% has typically be lumped in the category of “junk bonds”.

AXP, it should be noted is rated “A” by the Standard and Poors rating agency. The top rating AXP could have is “AAA” and typically junk bonds have rating 6 levels below that of “A”.

In the past AXP has issued debt in the 5% range which means bond investors are getting 40% more yield on AXP bonds currently and let’s be honest, the risk of default here is virtually non-existent.

It is strange times we are investing in……


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Sears Holdings Reports..

Sears Holdings (SHLD) reported this morning.

From the press release:

Sears Holdings Corporation(SHLD) today reported net income of $65 million, or $0.50 per diluted share, for the second quarter ended August 2, 2008, compared with net income of $173 million, or $1.15 per diluted share, for the second quarter ended August 4, 2007. Our second quarter 2008 results include the positive impact of the reversal of a $62 million ($37 million after tax or $0.29 per diluted share) reserve because of the overturning of the previously disclosed February 2, 2007 adverse jury verdict relating to the redemption of certain Sears, Roebuck and Co. bonds in 2004. Excluding this item, earnings per diluted share were $0.21 for the second quarter of fiscal 2008. The decline in our second quarter results from the same quarter last year primarily reflects lower operating results at both Sears Domestic and Kmart, partially offset by improved operating results at Sears Canada.

“Our second quarter results reflect the continued effects of a slowing economy which contributed to the earnings declines we have experienced since the third quarter of 2007,” said W. Bruce Johnson, Sears Holdings’ interim chief executive officer and president. “While it was a difficult quarter, we were successful in reducing our domestic inventory levels by $500 million which should lead to lower markdowns and favorably impact our gross margin rates in the second half of the year.”

Mr. Johnson added, “We expect to generate higher EBITDA in the second half of this year as compared to the corresponding period in 2007 as we benefit from our lower domestic inventory levels and continued vigilant expense management. Given our year-to-date results and the state of the economy, our current full-year EBITDA forecast, which assumes flat to modest comparable store sales declines for the rest of the year, is comparable to, but no longer exceeds, last year’s EBITDA”.

Revenues and Comparable Store Sales

For the quarter, Sears Domestic’s comparable store sales declined 6.7% while Kmart’s comparable store sales declined 5.6%. Total domestic comparable store sales declined 6.2%. The comparable store sales declines at both Kmart and Sears Domestic continue to reflect increasing competition and weakness in the general economy, but are less than the declines reported by Sears Domestic and Kmart during the first quarter of 2008 of 9.8% and 7.1%, respectively. Comparable store sales declined for the quarter across most major categories at both Kmart and Sears Domestic, but continue to be offset by increases in sales of consumer electronics. Comparable store sales declines continue to be driven by categories directly impacted by housing market conditions (including home appliances and, most notably, tools at Sears Domestic), and the increased costs of consumer staples, such as food and gas, which decrease consumers’ discretionary spending.

Bruce Johnson noted that, “Despite the difficult economic environment, we remain focused on long-term value creation and continue to invest in the future of the Company. Since last year we have added 65 net stores, which consist of Home Appliance Showrooms, dealer stores and outlet stores, and we have continued to expand our online and multi-channel capabilities. In May we added a huge selection of books, DVDs, music and software to sears.com, nearly quadrupling the number of products available.”

For the quarter, our total revenues declined $0.5 billion to $11.8 billion in fiscal 2008, as compared to $12.3 billion for the second quarter of fiscal 2007. The decrease in revenue primarily reflects the impact of lower domestic comparable store sales.

Operating Income

For the second quarter 2008, we reported operating income of $187 million, as compared to operating income of $332 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2007. The decrease in operating income was mainly due to lower gross margin generated at both Kmart and Sears Domestic. We generated $3.1 billion in total gross margin in the second quarter as compared to $3.4 billion in the second quarter last year. Our gross margin rate decreased by approximately 120 basis points to 26.5% and reflects rate declines for both Sears Domestic and Kmart due to increased markdown activity as a result of the intense competition for consumer business. Domestic gross margin rate was also reduced as a result of a $36 million increase in inventory reserves over the reserve for the comparable period last year primarily attributable to the reset of the Sears home electronics department and transition to newer products. The decline in Sears Domestic and Kmart gross margin rates was somewhat offset by an increase in the gross margin rate at Sears Canada. Given that we do not expect any significant near-term improvement in the overall retail environment, we believe that our sales and gross margin will likely continue to be pressured by the above-noted unfavorable economic factors for the balance of fiscal 2008.

Declines in sales and gross margin were partially offset by declines in selling and administrative expenses for the quarter. Selling and administrative expenses for the second quarter of 2008 include the above-noted impact of $62 million related to a favorable legal judgment. In addition to the legal judgment, selling and administrative expenses declined $46 million, mainly as a result of our focus on controlling costs. This additional decline was comprised of decreases in domestic operations of $54 million and a slight increase of $8 million at Sears Canada. The decline in domestic selling and administrative expenses is primarily due to lower payroll and advertising expenses. The increase in Sears Canada was primarily due to changes in foreign currency exchange rates.

Financial Position

We had cash and cash equivalents of $1.5 billion at August 2, 2008 (of which $771 million was domestic and $763 million was at Sears Canada) as compared to $2.6 billion at August 4, 2007 and $1.6 billion at February 2, 2008. During the first two quarters of 2008, significant uses of cash included share repurchases of $477 million (as discussed further below), capital expenditures of $277 million and long-term debt repayments of $179 million. These amounts were partially offset by an $812 million increase in short-term borrowings, primarily through borrowing on our $4 billion credit facility.

Merchandise inventories at August 2, 2008 were $9.8 billion, as compared to 10.2 billion at August 4, 2007. Domestic inventory declined from $9.4 billion at August 4, 2007 to $8.9 billion at August 2, 2008, reflecting the effectiveness of our efforts to control inventory levels. Sears Canada’s inventory levels increased approximately $80 million from August 4, 2007 to $880 million at August 2, 2008. The increase in Sears Canada’s inventory is partially due to the change in exchange rates. As we expect difficult economic conditions to persist in the near term, we intend to continue to manage our inventories throughout the remainder of the year with the goal of further reducing our domestic merchandise inventories to better align current levels with expected sales.

Share Repurchase

During the 13- and 26- week periods ended August 2, 2008, we repurchased 5.6 million and 6.0 million of our common shares at a total cost of $437 million and $477 million, respectively, under our share repurchase program. As of August 2, 2008, we had remaining authorization to repurchase $206 million of common shares under the share repurchase program. Share repurchases may be implemented using a variety of methods, which may include open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, block trades, accelerated share repurchase transactions, the purchase of call options, the sale of put options or otherwise, or by any combination of such methods. Timing of repurchases is dependent on prevailing market conditions, alternative uses of capital and other factors. Since the third quarter of fiscal 2005, when our repurchase plan was first approved, we have repurchased approximately 38.7 million of our common shares at a total cost of $4.8 billion pursuant to the program. As of August 2, 2008, we had approximately 126 million common shares outstanding.

This is better than I expected it to be…more later


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Thursday’s Links

Funny, Phones, SAT, Biden,

– A classic

– Dealbreaker.com votes for the Blackberry

Just great………..going backwards. Rather than parent harping on teachers to “give” better grades to their kids, or teachers appeasing demanding parents, why don’t we just make kids “earn” them.

– This didn’t take long

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Durable Goods, Or The Reason to Ignore Most Economists (update w/video)

Is it just me but outside of housing are things always coming in “better than expected”?

Durable goods orders (manufactured goods designed to last at least three years) increased 1.3% last month to a seasonally adjusted $219.26 billion, the Commerce Department said today. Excluding transportation, durable orders rose a promising 0.7%.

Orders in June were revised higher, also rising 1.3%; previously, June durables were seen rising 0.8%.

The report was much better than Wall Street expected; economists had forecast a decline of 0.4% for July. It should be noted that the June revisions mean econoists were far off the mark then also.

A gauge of business equipment spending — orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — increased in July by 2.6%, after going up 1.3% in June. Year-over-year it has increased 4.2%, indicating capital spending hasn’t collapsed despite despite dire predictions it would.

Here is the CNBC “analysis”:

The “long story short” translation here is that other than housing, the economy is still in good shape. We have yet to have a negative quarter of GDP growth, the unemployment rate, despite rising is still low by any historical measure.

Economists, far from being scientists are letting their outlook shade the reality of what is happening out there and their “predictions”. My home has dropped in value like the rest of the US’s over the last two years. But, I am not selling so, who cares? It does not have any effect on my life at all and its drop is meaningless to my financial plans in the next decade or my lifestyle. Now, it does on others, and that is why we will not grow GDP at 3% to 4%. It is the reason it will grow 0% to 2%. That is still growth.

Do home value drops matter to Caterpiller (CAT) or John Deere (DE) or other US exporters selling equipment to China, India or Brazil? It does in that their profits may drop slightly but not enough to offset a global world. Again, not great growth but growth none the less.

Housing is also the reason people think the world is coming to and end, clouding their perception of what is really happening. People losing their homes make real nice news headlines and stories, especially in an election year. Watch what happens after the election. This issue will take on considerably less importance. For now, it will be a day after day drumming of it as both parties and the media try to assess blame on everyone but the real responsible parties, lenders and borrowers.

Do not base your outlook or investments on what the economists say. Remember, they predicted a recession as early as last fall, and have still been wrong to date on that one.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Borders Earnings Call Notes

I think people are missing just how good a job Borders (BGP) CEO George Jones is doing there…

Notes from the earnings call:
– In the first half of this year, cash flow from continuing operations improved by $195.7 million compared to a year ago
– SG&A dollar expenses from continuing operations were $16.7 million lower than last year and are on track with stated plan to reduce annual expenses by $120 million.
– Approximately half of the $120 million in savings is related to corporate office expense reductions and the other half is reductions in store and distribution expenses. Most of the actions necessary to realize these savings have been taken.
– They are on track to realize approximately half of the expense savings, or about $60 million in 2008 and expect to be operating at a level to realize $120 million in annualized expense savings at the beginning of fiscal 2009.
– More than 28 million Borders rewards loyalty program members. This program continues to attract new members at a rapid pace. Averaging over 131,000 new members a week. Borders.com will be rolled out to stores later this year.
– Inventory reduction in music inventory, which declined over 30% from last year. They have also reduced floor space dedicated to music in all stores by about a third, on average. Music now occupies approximately 7% of total store floor space. The space previously occupied by music was reallocated to growth categories, such as children’s and bargain books.
– More space in stores due to inventory reduction allows a focus on driving profitable sales by better using that space to expand growing categories, such as children’s and bargain, as well as to face out more books and make some merchandising improvements.
– These strategies work in new concept stores and the concept stores, they are really pleased. They are performing very well on the whole and BGP will be applying them in all of our stores.

From Q&A

Regarding Pershing Square and Bill Ackman
Matthew Fassler – Goldman Sachs
“And just a really basic question on the Pershing warrants, the benefit to you is a result of what specifically be”

Edward W. Wilhelm
“Well, the warrants again have a strike price of $7, the stock being under $7 results in a downward adjustment, an income item. If things were to go the other way, it would be a — obviously an expense item if things were to, if the stock were to be over $7. And again, this is all non-cash too.”

Matthew Fassler – Goldman Sachs
“And as it moves closer to or further away from $7, you take — you book something there?”

Edward W. Wilhelm
“That’s right. And again, non-cash item.”

Cost Cutting:
George L. Jones
“One thing to note in this expense initiative, this is something we started last year looking at and had some outside help, even beginning last year, looking at the fact that we really needed lower overhead and we thought there was an opportunity to [do there]. Obviously we stepped this up quite a bit in the first of the year as we saw sales softening and what was happening with the economy and brought in some additional outside help, which really helped us focus on it at the beginning of the year. And as we put this in in second quarter, this was something that we did quite surgically with a lot of focus and literally, it was a process that was not just concentrated on let’s eliminate some jobs or do this, et cetera, which all that happened but we really literally turned over every possible stone within the company in every area and that’s the reason we are so confident that we can deliver more than the $120 million in expense reductions. And we’re still finding things.”

More on Pershing and PaperChase:
David Weiner – Deutsche Bank
“Okay, and then just one final separate question and I’ll pass it on — if you can just remind me what the implications are of not selling the Paperchase business within your agreement with Pershing? Are there kind of certain levers that happen, if I remember the Paperchase business doesn’t get sold to an outside party by the fourth quarter?”

Edward W. Wilhelm
“No, there are no implications of that, and just to be clear, the put that we have available that remains for our ability to put the Paperchase business back to Pershing Square remains in effect. We haven’t exercise the put and we obviously haven’t sold the Paperchase business either. And I would just say that as we sit here today, we’ve got plenty of available capacity to get through the peak debt season for this year and we can sit here even without the sale of Paperchase or the exercising of that put and we can say that with a high degree of confidence because that peak debt occurs early next month. So we are sitting in a very comfortable position, again even without the sale of Paperchase as we look out through the remainder of this year and again, there are no implications of not exercising that put.”

George L. Jones
“The Pershing put was really a back-stop for us to give people confidence that we had the wherewithal going forward, et cetera. That’s why it was done. It was never necessarily our intent that we would exercise it but it was there if we needed it. It was a safety net, so to speak.

Since that happened, I mean, we’ve dramatically improved the financial strength of this company and the balance sheet, as evidenced by the debt and our improvement in cash flow and everything that we have reported here. We feel really, really good about that and the expense reductions, everything we’ve got. So we’re just in a much, much stronger position financially than we were.”

More on the $120 million costs saving:
Aaron Stein – J.P. Morgan
“Okay, and then of the $120 million of annual savings, can you break out how much of that you think comes from either store closures or business spin-outs, so on and so forth versus existing operational savings?”

Edward W. Wilhelm
“None. It’s all from existing operational savings.”

What to think? This is even better than yesterday’s initial news. Why? There

We another $60 million in savings minimum this year, Borders.com results, $7 million in sales were really only after 2 to 3 weeks of operations in Q2. The new concept stores, managements reaction to them get better each quarter. Debt reduction continues.

Let’s look at the second half of the year. Last year the company lost $97 million in Q’s 3 and 4. Some real rough math gives us the above mentioned $60m in cost saving, $12m in debt interest savings, Borders.com ought to contribute $35m in sales at a real conservative minimum giving about a $8.4 m profit (using 24% gross margin). Should Paperchase be sold to Pershing, that save another $10 million in cash flow and reduces debt even further, bettering results.

I think those folks that think Borders won’t turn a profit for the second half of the year are going to be disappointed. Now, should the economy collapse, clearly we are in a different situation. But, if the worst is over and the consumer mood changes or even just stays the same, things could get a whole lot better real fast.

The cost cuts that have been made in areas that will not really involve cost increases when sales return (leases, utilities, marketing, labor, corporate expenses). The short of that is increasing dollars falling to the bottom line rather than being absorbed by expenses.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP

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Berkshire Hathway’s Home Services Peltier on Housing

Here are more thoughts n housing from the front lines and from the 30,000 foot view.

Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Home Services on Housing

Case Schiller Results:

Simple conclusion? If your looking for that cheap vacation home, 2009 ought to be the year to pick one up on the cheap….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

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Wednesday’s Links

Oil, In-Laws, History, Mobil TV

– Here is the reason for the high prices

– You think your in-laws are bad?

– This is an interesting article on the Fed and history

– I already have some of this with Sprint

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