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From the Donut’s Mouth: It’s About Value

16 months ago I said in a post comparing McDonald’s (MCD) and Starbucks (SBUX), “Of course there are the “coffee connoisseurs,” they will never go to McDonald’s and I am not talking about them, I am speaking of the great ambivalent masses in the middle. When all things are equal, price and convenience always win.”

Listen to the CEO of Dunkin Brands Monday morning:

Starbucks like to think of itself as the “Tiffany’s” (TIF) of coffee. Okay, I’ll go with it. Here is the issue. Tiffany’s does not have 14,000 locations. You cannot be the high priced option in a commodity business and have that many locations and survive a downturn without being severely bruised and battered.

Starbucks is responding by closing 600 location. Mark my words here….there will be more. Dunkin is getting the trade down business and even their CEO sounded cautious. If I were a Starbucks shareholder, based on this interview, July 29th would be a very nervous day for me. Q3 earnings come out and I would be highly shocked if Starbucks managed to come close to the 15 cents (down from 19 last year) analysts expect without some nifty tricks.

In what seems an eternity ago when shares sat at $37 I said they were due for a fall. When they got to $25 I said they were due for more downside and said the same at $21. Now at $14 and change, a price not seen since Sept. 2003, have they bottomed? Not by a long shot. Starbucks still trades at 17 times this year’s expected earnings. That expectation, I think is too high in which case the earnings multiple is actually larger).

Starbucks is going to struggle for the next year or two because other than closing a few locations, they have not made any fundamental changes that will make them more appealing to cash strapped customers. Unless they find a way to enable customers to feel a value proposition from going there, store trafic will continue to decline.

By the time it is all over, we ought to see shares trading at $10 each.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, None

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From the Donut's Mouth: It's About Value

16 months ago I said in a post comparing McDonald’s (MCD) and Starbucks (SBUX), “Of course there are the “coffee connoisseurs,” they will never go to McDonald’s and I am not talking about them, I am speaking of the great ambivalent masses in the middle. When all things are equal, price and convenience always win.”

Listen to the CEO of Dunkin Brands Monday morning:

Starbucks like to think of itself as the “Tiffany’s” (TIF) of coffee. Okay, I’ll go with it. Here is the issue. Tiffany’s does not have 14,000 locations. You cannot be the high priced option in a commodity business and have that many locations and survive a downturn without being severely bruised and battered.

Starbucks is responding by closing 600 location. Mark my words here….there will be more. Dunkin is getting the trade down business and even their CEO sounded cautious. If I were a Starbucks shareholder, based on this interview, July 29th would be a very nervous day for me. Q3 earnings come out and I would be highly shocked if Starbucks managed to come close to the 15 cents (down from 19 last year) analysts expect without some nifty tricks.

In what seems an eternity ago when shares sat at $37 I said they were due for a fall. When they got to $25 I said they were due for more downside and said the same at $21. Now at $14 and change, a price not seen since Sept. 2003, have they bottomed? Not by a long shot. Starbucks still trades at 17 times this year’s expected earnings. That expectation, I think is too high in which case the earnings multiple is actually larger).

Starbucks is going to struggle for the next year or two because other than closing a few locations, they have not made any fundamental changes that will make them more appealing to cash strapped customers. Unless they find a way to enable customers to feel a value proposition from going there, store trafic will continue to decline.

By the time it is all over, we ought to see shares trading at $10 each.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, None

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Tuesday’s links

Congress, Sad, Mercer, Energy

Oh please……..

– Snow was a good guy and ignored the bomb throwing so prevalent today.

– A hell of a guy

– This guy just may be right

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Tuesday's links

Congress, Sad, Mercer, Energy

Oh please……..

– Snow was a good guy and ignored the bomb throwing so prevalent today.

– A hell of a guy

– This guy just may be right

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Want Clarity on Financials? Ask Goldman Sachs (GS)

Is there a bank out there now who has not hired Goldman Sachs (GS) as an adviser?

Wachovia(WB) recently disclosed that it hired Goldman as an adviser to help is get out from it’s huge portfolio of troubled loans. They join Royal Bank of Scotland(RBS) Washington Mutual (WM), National City (NCC) and State Street(STT) who turned to Goldman for advice and to raise money as conditions and loans portfolios have deteriorated.

Now news is out that Lehman (LEH) may be looking for a partner. anyone want to bet Goldman is involved somehow Will Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) turn to Goldman as their fortunes continue to sour? Goldman helped Freddie Mac raise $6 billion in preferred capital last year.

It is getting to the point where you have Goldman, JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) as the cream of the crop in financials since they seem to be involved in everything when it comes to bailing or helping people out or in the case of Wells Fargo, not in the news at all and the rest of the financials mulling around looking for a handle to grab.

Goldman’s earnings call at the end of the month ought to be an interesting one. If anyone knows what is sitting out there on banks books, it will be them. What they say will bear listening to.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GS,WB,WFC, None

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Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Gymboree (GYMB)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Strong Buy
Pinnacle Finl (PNFP)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Neutral » Buy
Key Energy (KEG)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
RadNet (RDNT)- Stanford Research Hold » Buy
Zumiez (ZUMZ)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Fedrl Rlty Inv Trst (FRT)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Groupe Danone DA (UBS)- Sell » Neutral
Shanda Interactive (SNDA)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Ciena (CIEN)- JMP Securities Mkt Underperform » Mkt Perform
Intersil (ISIL)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Owens Corning (OC)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Natl Oilwell Varco (NOV)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Kinetic Concepts (KCI)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Gladstone Commercial (GOOD)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Fastenal (FAST)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Genzyme (GENZ)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Macy’s (M)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Dean Foods (DF)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Domtar (UFS)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform

Downgrades
The Bancorp (TBBK)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Natus Medical (BABY)- Avondale Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Superior Services (SUPR)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
Rohm and Haas (ROH)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
UAL Corp (UAL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Continental Air (CAL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Air Tran Holdings (AAI)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Alaska Air (ALK)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Hercules (HPC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
ThomsonReuters (TRIN)- UBS Neutral » Sell
Pearson Plc (PSO)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Wachovia (WB)- UBS Buy » Neutral

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Tuesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Gymboree (GYMB)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Strong Buy
Pinnacle Finl (PNFP)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Neutral » Buy
Key Energy (KEG)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
RadNet (RDNT)- Stanford Research Hold » Buy
Zumiez (ZUMZ)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Fedrl Rlty Inv Trst (FRT)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Groupe Danone DA (UBS)- Sell » Neutral
Shanda Interactive (SNDA)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Ciena (CIEN)- JMP Securities Mkt Underperform » Mkt Perform
Intersil (ISIL)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Owens Corning (OC)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Natl Oilwell Varco (NOV)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Kinetic Concepts (KCI)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Gladstone Commercial (GOOD)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Fastenal (FAST)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Genzyme (GENZ)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Macy’s (M)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Dean Foods (DF)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Domtar (UFS)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform

Downgrades
The Bancorp (TBBK)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Natus Medical (BABY)- Avondale Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Superior Services (SUPR)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
Rohm and Haas (ROH)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
UAL Corp (UAL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Continental Air (CAL)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Air Tran Holdings (AAI)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Alaska Air (ALK)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Hercules (HPC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
ThomsonReuters (TRIN)- UBS Neutral » Sell
Pearson Plc (PSO)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Wachovia (WB)- UBS Buy » Neutral

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Soveriegn Wealth Funds, Not So Scary After all

Let’s start the “Boogie Man” conversation with an editorial by Blackstone’s (BX) Steve Schwartzman

In it Schwartzman says:

“Gao Xiqing, the president of China Investment Corporation, China’s sovereign wealth fund, spoke last week of his frustration that CIC’s attempts at investing outside China sometimes run into political opposition. He went on to add, in words that should act as a chilling wake-up call to many politicians and bankers: “Fortunately there are more than 200 countries in the world. And fortunately there are many countries who are happy with us.” ”

Recently I spoke with Drosten Fisher from the Monitor Group. They recently released their comprehensive research report on Soveriegn Wealth Funds (SWF’s).

Monitor Group collected and investigated data on 1,181 sovereign wealth fund transactions involving 25 funds from 1975 through March 2008 – compiling the most complete source of publicly-disclosed sovereign wealth fund transactions assembled to date. To allow for more comprehensive analysis, filters were applied to the data, leaving 17 funds, with a total of 785 deals and $251 billion of investments made between 2000 and 2008. The bulk of these transactions originated in the Middle East and Asia.

The results ought to surprise a whole bunch of people. The investment behavior of SWFs to date suggests the funds are driven primarily by financial objectives-they do not appear to be investing for political motives. While some funds are making strategic investments to hasten economic development in their home countries, Monitor found no evidence that SWFs, especially the highly scrutinized Middle East and East Asian funds, were active in ways that threaten the economic or national security of the countries where they invest. Investments in transportation, defense and aerospace, and high technology make up less than 1% of the value of deals in Monitor Group’s data base

SWFs do take controlling stakes in companies. In contrast to prevailing views, half of publicly-acknowledged SWF transactions since 2000 resulted in majority-stake acquisitions. However, by far most of these transactions have occurred in domestic and emerging markets and in sectors such as consumer products and services and industrials not generally considered politically-sensitive.

Now, with all that being said, SWF’s do not really help themselves. While I can buy Schwartzman’s argument that “the current talk of disclosure requirements is seen by some SWFs as problematical since it often fails to take into account the political realities in some of the countries managing SWFs, where their ties to the west are best left unstated lest they arouse domestic political opposition.” certain actions, are hurting them.

Abu Dhabi’s SWF for example, will not even disclose the size of its fund. It gets hard for people to fully trust your motives when you will not even disclose the size of your fund.

Sheikh Khalifa told Al-Nahar, a Lebanese newspaper, that the $800bn figure does “not reflect the truth and the size of Emirati investments abroad” but would not give any further indication of how big Adia was.

“Regardless of the numbers and estimations, however, the sovereign funds, which you have referred to, operate according to economic principles, not political considerations,” Sheikh Khalifa was quoted as saying. “We have made that clear to our partners in international markets. We work in accordance to investment opportunities available to us in all markets.”

The Sheikh is asking a skeptical world to “just trust us” without giving a tangible reason to. When skeptical people cannot get answers, fear reigns and we get actions like the Dubia Ports fiasco.

It comes down to an issue of trust, while we may never, according to Drosten required SWF’s to adhere to US disclosure standards, SWF’s could perhaps put the issue to rest by disclosing some basic information?

Please read the full Monitor Report. It is clearly the most comprehensive report on the subject to date.

About Drosten:
Drosten Fisher is a principal with the international strategy consultancy Monitor Group. His focus is serving government and commercial clients in the areas of economic competitiveness, national security and international finance. A Middle East specialist, he speaks Arabic and has lived and worked in the region. Before joining Monitor, Drosten was a researcher for former Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet on his memoir At the Center of the Storm.

He was educated at Oxford and Georgetown and is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.Drosten is a co-author of a recent Monitor report into sovereign wealth fund investment and is a regular speaker and commentator on Middle Eastern investment, politics and business.

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David Einhorn’s Allied Capital (ALD) Speech (video)

This is the speech that lead to the book, “Fooling some of the People”

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Here is the book:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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David Einhorn's Allied Capital (ALD) Speech (video)

This is the speech that lead to the book, “Fooling some of the People”

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Here is the book:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Fed Approves New Mortgage Rules for Idiots

Is it just me or are these basically to prevent people from making stupid choices?

Here they are:

The final rule adds four key protections for a newly defined category of “higher-priced mortgage loans” secured by a consumer’s principal dwelling. For loans in this category, these protections will:

* Prohibit a lender from making a loan without regard to borrowers’ ability to repay the loan from income and assets other than the home’s value. A lender complies, in part, by assessing repayment ability based on the highest scheduled payment in the first seven years of the loan. To show that a lender violated this prohibition, a borrower does not need to demonstrate that it is part of a “pattern or practice.”
* Require creditors to verify the income and assets they rely upon to determine repayment ability.
* Ban any prepayment penalty if the payment can change in the initial four years. For other higher-priced loans, a prepayment penalty period cannot last for more than two years. This rule is substantially more restrictive than originally proposed.
* Require creditors to establish escrow accounts for property taxes and homeowner’s insurance for all first-lien mortgage loans.

Full release:

I mean, if you are buying a house without the ability to pay for it or lending money to someone without verifying their ability to pay, I’m sorry but you deserve what you get. Why not put corks on the end of all forks to stop people from poking themselves in the eye. Come on guys…..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Yahoo’s Bostock to Icahn "I’m Rubber Your Glue"

This is great…..the perfect thing for a summer news story…

So, Icahn send the following letter the Yahoo (YHOO) shareholders after the letter below was sent by Yahoo’s Roy Bostock.

Dear Fellow Yahoo! Shareholders:

Over the years I have attempted to make changes at many companies but I have yet to see a company distort, omit and twist events and facts in the manner that Yahoo! has done in their press release issued Saturday night, July 12th.

During the last week, Goldman Sachs called me a number of times asking me to relate to them any transaction that Microsoft (MSFT) might be interested in transactingwith Yahoo!

I discussed with them the possibility of doing a “Search only” deal wherein Microsoft would purchase “Search” from Yahoo! and pay Yahoo! for any searches that would originate from a Yahoo! content page. Yahoo! felt that a deal of this nature would be very interesting, but only if Microsoft would
guarantee the revenue that Yahoo! now received. This would obviously be a great deal for Yahoo! because Yahoo! would, for five years, receive a minimum of the $2.3 billion they are currently receiving as long as they continued to supply the page views and affiliate traffic they now had. Heretofore, Microsoft had been unwilling to even come close to making this guarantee. However, after I negotiated with Steve Ballmer for the better part of a week, he agreed to the guarantee. He also agreed to commit $7.7 billion dollars to the transaction (consisting of a $1 billion payment for “Search”, a $2.8 billion loan and a $3.9 billion tender offer to Yahoo! shareholders). Under the transaction, Yahoo! shareholders would receive $16.25 per share in distributions (consisting of cash
and securities) and be left with a content company which would have a minimum guarantee of $2.3 billion per year of “Search” revenue from Microsoft and cost saving synergies from exiting the “Search” business that Yahoo! has publicly stated would be $750 million per year (excluding the benefits from reduction of stock compensation and other non-cash items). However, Microsoft believes the synergies from Yahoo! exiting “Search” would be far superior and that Yahoo!’s 2009 GAAP operating income would exceed $2 billion. Microsoft would be making a substantial equity investment in the remaining company at a valuation of $19.50 per share. Furthermore, Yahoo! would be spared the great expense of maintaining “Search” as well as having to spend billions in developing new technology to compete with Google and Microsoft – which it is highly doubtful they would be
able to do successfully. Additionally, Yahoo! would be able to avoid the great risk of seeing “Search” continue to lose market share and eventually melt away.

I spoke to Goldman Sachs and Roy Bostock on Thursday concerning the breakthrough with Microsoft. A call to discuss the details of the transaction was then set up among Microsoft, Yahoo! and me on Friday afternoon, July 11th. However to my surprise and consternation, on the Friday call Yahoo!, instead of being interested in the Microsoft offer, seemed to me to be focused on who would be
running Yahoo!. Finally, Steve Ballmer suggested that we not spend the rest of Friday afternoon on corporate governance. “First tell us if you like the deal,” he said.

THE YAHOO! PRESS RELEASE

a. Yahoo! in their Saturday night press release makes much of the fact that they were only given 24 hours to decide on the Microsoft offer because of the time constraints relating to the proxy fight, but neglects to mention that they were offered more time if they would be willing to postpone the
annual meeting for a short period.

b. Yahoo! conveniently neglects in its press release to tell you about the extremely important above mentioned guarantees that Microsoft was willing to make;

c. Yahoo! tells you in their press release that a condition of the deal was the immediate replacement of the current board and removal of top management. Yahoo! neglected to mention we were willing to discuss keeping a number of the current board members and Jerry Yang as Chief Yahoo!

d. Yahoo tells you the Microsoft proposal precludes the potential sale of all Yahoo! however, they neglect to tell you that that train has left the station in that Microsoft is no longer willing to buy all of Yahoo! with the current board overseeing the company.

e. Yahoo!’s press release states that “this odd and opportunistic alliance of Microsoft and Mr. Icahn has anything but the interest of Yahoo stockholders in mind”, raising the innuendo that I am on Microsoft’s side in this manner. That is patently ridiculous. Since Yahoo! failed to consummate a
transaction with Microsoft this year, I have spent hours and hours attempting to get the parties together because I believe that it is beneficial to Yahoo! shareholders to have a deal with Microsoft and I have worked hard trying to make it happen. It is important to note that my funds and affiliates own 70 million shares of Yahoo and own no shares of Microsoft or Google while the current board outside of Jerry Yang owns only the shares they have received from Yahoo for being directors. My interests
are aligned with yours and not Microsoft and I think it is in our interest to have this transaction consummated so that we can get value much in excess of the recent and current market for Yahoo! shares.

In June, Microsoft apparently made a $33 per share offer for all of Yahoo! which was met with Yahoo countering at $37, thereby rejecting the $33 offer. Amazingly, before Microsoft decided that it would not buy all of Yahoo! with this board in place, it offered $33 and was turned down. The Yahoo! press release indicates that Yahoo!, in rejecting the current Microsoft proposal, stated that it would do a deal in which the entire company was sold to Microsoft for $33 per share. It is hard to understand why it turned down $33 and is now willing to accept it. It is the same obfuscation that is so prevalent in the rest of the press release. DON’T BE FOOLED.

I believe that, just like the $33 per share offer that was refused by Yahoo! in early June, refusing the Microsoft offer for the Yahoo! search business is also another grave mistake that will be deeply regretted. Our company is on a precipice and our Board seems ready to take the risk of seeing it topple – ARE YOU, THE REAL OWNERS OF YAHOO!, WILLING TO TAKE THE SAME RISK?

Read full letter including deal details here:

Roy Bostock had responded to Icahn latest offer withwith the following:

Dear Fellow Stockholder:
We have written to you before to explain why we believe your Board of Directors has the knowledge, experience, independence and commitment to best represent the interests of all Yahoo! stockholders. We have also told you why we believe the slate of directors advanced by Carl Icahn is not the right answer for Yahoo!.
When Mr. Icahn began his proxy contest he had no articulated plan for Yahoo! other than a sale of the Company to Microsoft. Today he still lacks a plan that makes sense for Yahoo! stockholders. On Monday, July 7, Mr. Icahn announced that he and Microsoft had engaged in conversations he claimed could lead to a transaction between Yahoo! and Microsoft if his slate is elected. In what was clearly a coordinated approach, Microsoft promptly followed Mr. Icahn’s announcement with its own press release, stating that if – but only if – a new Board of Directors is elected, it might be interested in discussing either a transaction involving only Yahoo!’s valuable search assets or an acquisition of the entire Company (something Microsoft had refused to discuss with your Board for months).
The fact that Microsoft and Icahn had indeed teamed up to serve their own ends became entirely clear the evening of Friday, July 11, when Microsoft and Mr. Icahn jointly proposed a new complex restructuring of Yahoo! that would include the acquisition of Yahoo!’s search business by Microsoft. Your Board of Directors was given less than 24 hours to accept the proposal, the fundamental terms of which Microsoft and Mr. Icahn made clear they were unwilling to negotiate. After reviewing the proposal with our legal and financial advisors, your Board of Directors determined that accepting the proposal is not in the best interests of our stockholders.
The Board’s rejection of the new proposal was based on a number of factors, including the following:
1. Yahoo!’s existing business plus its recently signed commercial agreement with Google has superior financial value and less complexity and risk than the Microsoft/Icahn proposal.

2. The Microsoft/Icahn proposal would preclude a potential sale of all of Yahoo! for a full and fair price, including a control premium.

3. The major component of the overall value per share asserted by Microsoft/Icahn would be in Yahoo!’s remaining non-search businesses which would be overseen by Mr. Icahn’s slate of directors, which has virtually no working knowledge of Yahoo!’s businesses.

4. The Microsoft/Icahn proposal would require the immediate replacement of the current Board and removal of the top management team at Yahoo!. Your Board believes these moves would destabilize Yahoo! for the up to one year it would take to gain regulatory approval for this deal.

Am I the only one who thinks Bostock kind of makes points for Icahn? Let’s go with the basic premise that the business of Yahoo is deteriorating and has been for some time. I think that is undeniable. If that is true, then, why is keeping current management and the Board there something shareholders would want? Ought that be an enticement for them to vote for Icahn?

Shareholders also must think and realize that Icahn, who has 5% of the stock really does have “shareholder interests” in mind vs the Board’s and management’s interest in “their jobs”. It will matter when they make their proxy votes.

Bostock keeps mentioning a “fair price”. The $33 a share offer is 45 times the last twelve months earnings at the company of 76 cents a share. That 76 cents while up from FY 2007’s 46 cents is down from 2005’s $1.12. In other words, earnings really have not gone anywhere in 3.5 years now and Icahn if offering 45 times them. Bostock can’t even really make the argument “thing are getting better” at Yahoo. The reality is they are just trading water, like the stock price.

The true irony here is had Bostock and Yang not held their breath and stomped their feet when Icahn came knocking, they may have been able to avoid in the end what they will end up seeing happening, their resume’s being polished up.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Yahoo's Bostock to Icahn "I'm Rubber Your Glue"

This is great…..the perfect thing for a summer news story…

So, Icahn send the following letter the Yahoo (YHOO) shareholders after the letter below was sent by Yahoo’s Roy Bostock.

Dear Fellow Yahoo! Shareholders:

Over the years I have attempted to make changes at many companies but I have yet to see a company distort, omit and twist events and facts in the manner that Yahoo! has done in their press release issued Saturday night, July 12th.

During the last week, Goldman Sachs called me a number of times asking me to relate to them any transaction that Microsoft (MSFT) might be interested in transactingwith Yahoo!

I discussed with them the possibility of doing a “Search only” deal wherein Microsoft would purchase “Search” from Yahoo! and pay Yahoo! for any searches that would originate from a Yahoo! content page. Yahoo! felt that a deal of this nature would be very interesting, but only if Microsoft would
guarantee the revenue that Yahoo! now received. This would obviously be a great deal for Yahoo! because Yahoo! would, for five years, receive a minimum of the $2.3 billion they are currently receiving as long as they continued to supply the page views and affiliate traffic they now had. Heretofore, Microsoft had been unwilling to even come close to making this guarantee. However, after I negotiated with Steve Ballmer for the better part of a week, he agreed to the guarantee. He also agreed to commit $7.7 billion dollars to the transaction (consisting of a $1 billion payment for “Search”, a $2.8 billion loan and a $3.9 billion tender offer to Yahoo! shareholders). Under the transaction, Yahoo! shareholders would receive $16.25 per share in distributions (consisting of cash
and securities) and be left with a content company which would have a minimum guarantee of $2.3 billion per year of “Search” revenue from Microsoft and cost saving synergies from exiting the “Search” business that Yahoo! has publicly stated would be $750 million per year (excluding the benefits from reduction of stock compensation and other non-cash items). However, Microsoft believes the synergies from Yahoo! exiting “Search” would be far superior and that Yahoo!’s 2009 GAAP operating income would exceed $2 billion. Microsoft would be making a substantial equity investment in the remaining company at a valuation of $19.50 per share. Furthermore, Yahoo! would be spared the great expense of maintaining “Search” as well as having to spend billions in developing new technology to compete with Google and Microsoft – which it is highly doubtful they would be
able to do successfully. Additionally, Yahoo! would be able to avoid the great risk of seeing “Search” continue to lose market share and eventually melt away.

I spoke to Goldman Sachs and Roy Bostock on Thursday concerning the breakthrough with Microsoft. A call to discuss the details of the transaction was then set up among Microsoft, Yahoo! and me on Friday afternoon, July 11th. However to my surprise and consternation, on the Friday call Yahoo!, instead of being interested in the Microsoft offer, seemed to me to be focused on who would be
running Yahoo!. Finally, Steve Ballmer suggested that we not spend the rest of Friday afternoon on corporate governance. “First tell us if you like the deal,” he said.

THE YAHOO! PRESS RELEASE

a. Yahoo! in their Saturday night press release makes much of the fact that they were only given 24 hours to decide on the Microsoft offer because of the time constraints relating to the proxy fight, but neglects to mention that they were offered more time if they would be willing to postpone the
annual meeting for a short period.

b. Yahoo! conveniently neglects in its press release to tell you about the extremely important above mentioned guarantees that Microsoft was willing to make;

c. Yahoo! tells you in their press release that a condition of the deal was the immediate replacement of the current board and removal of top management. Yahoo! neglected to mention we were willing to discuss keeping a number of the current board members and Jerry Yang as Chief Yahoo!

d. Yahoo tells you the Microsoft proposal precludes the potential sale of all Yahoo! however, they neglect to tell you that that train has left the station in that Microsoft is no longer willing to buy all of Yahoo! with the current board overseeing the company.

e. Yahoo!’s press release states that “this odd and opportunistic alliance of Microsoft and Mr. Icahn has anything but the interest of Yahoo stockholders in mind”, raising the innuendo that I am on Microsoft’s side in this manner. That is patently ridiculous. Since Yahoo! failed to consummate a
transaction with Microsoft this year, I have spent hours and hours attempting to get the parties together because I believe that it is beneficial to Yahoo! shareholders to have a deal with Microsoft and I have worked hard trying to make it happen. It is important to note that my funds and affiliates own 70 million shares of Yahoo and own no shares of Microsoft or Google while the current board outside of Jerry Yang owns only the shares they have received from Yahoo for being directors. My interests
are aligned with yours and not Microsoft and I think it is in our interest to have this transaction consummated so that we can get value much in excess of the recent and current market for Yahoo! shares.

In June, Microsoft apparently made a $33 per share offer for all of Yahoo! which was met with Yahoo countering at $37, thereby rejecting the $33 offer. Amazingly, before Microsoft decided that it would not buy all of Yahoo! with this board in place, it offered $33 and was turned down. The Yahoo! press release indicates that Yahoo!, in rejecting the current Microsoft proposal, stated that it would do a deal in which the entire company was sold to Microsoft for $33 per share. It is hard to understand why it turned down $33 and is now willing to accept it. It is the same obfuscation that is so prevalent in the rest of the press release. DON’T BE FOOLED.

I believe that, just like the $33 per share offer that was refused by Yahoo! in early June, refusing the Microsoft offer for the Yahoo! search business is also another grave mistake that will be deeply regretted. Our company is on a precipice and our Board seems ready to take the risk of seeing it topple – ARE YOU, THE REAL OWNERS OF YAHOO!, WILLING TO TAKE THE SAME RISK?

Read full letter including deal details here:

Roy Bostock had responded to Icahn latest offer withwith the following:

Dear Fellow Stockholder:
We have written to you before to explain why we believe your Board of Directors has the knowledge, experience, independence and commitment to best represent the interests of all Yahoo! stockholders. We have also told you why we believe the slate of directors advanced by Carl Icahn is not the right answer for Yahoo!.
When Mr. Icahn began his proxy contest he had no articulated plan for Yahoo! other than a sale of the Company to Microsoft. Today he still lacks a plan that makes sense for Yahoo! stockholders. On Monday, July 7, Mr. Icahn announced that he and Microsoft had engaged in conversations he claimed could lead to a transaction between Yahoo! and Microsoft if his slate is elected. In what was clearly a coordinated approach, Microsoft promptly followed Mr. Icahn’s announcement with its own press release, stating that if – but only if – a new Board of Directors is elected, it might be interested in discuss
ing either a transaction involving only Yahoo!’s valuable search assets or an acquisition of the entire Company (something Microsoft had refused to discuss with your Board for months).
The fact that Microsoft and Icahn had indeed teamed up to serve their own ends became entirely clear the evening of Friday, July 11, when Microsoft and Mr. Icahn jointly proposed a new complex restructuring of Yahoo! that would include the acquisition of Yahoo!’s search business by Microsoft. Your Board of Directors was given less than 24 hours to accept the proposal, the fundamental terms of which Microsoft and Mr. Icahn made clear they were unwilling to negotiate. After reviewing the proposal with our legal and financial advisors, your Board of Directors determined that accepting the proposal is not in the best interests of our stockholders.
The Board’s rejection of the new proposal was based on a number of factors, including the following:
1. Yahoo!’s existing business plus its recently signed commercial agreement with Google has superior financial value and less complexity and risk than the Microsoft/Icahn proposal.

2. The Microsoft/Icahn proposal would preclude a potential sale of all of Yahoo! for a full and fair price, including a control premium.

3. The major component of the overall value per share asserted by Microsoft/Icahn would be in Yahoo!’s remaining non-search businesses which would be overseen by Mr. Icahn’s slate of directors, which has virtually no working knowledge of Yahoo!’s businesses.

4. The Microsoft/Icahn proposal would require the immediate replacement of the current Board and removal of the top management team at Yahoo!. Your Board believes these moves would destabilize Yahoo! for the up to one year it would take to gain regulatory approval for this deal.

Am I the only one who thinks Bostock kind of makes points for Icahn? Let’s go with the basic premise that the business of Yahoo is deteriorating and has been for some time. I think that is undeniable. If that is true, then, why is keeping current management and the Board there something shareholders would want? Ought that be an enticement for them to vote for Icahn?

Shareholders also must think and realize that Icahn, who has 5% of the stock really does have “shareholder interests” in mind vs the Board’s and management’s interest in “their jobs”. It will matter when they make their proxy votes.

Bostock keeps mentioning a “fair price”. The $33 a share offer is 45 times the last twelve months earnings at the company of 76 cents a share. That 76 cents while up from FY 2007’s 46 cents is down from 2005’s $1.12. In other words, earnings really have not gone anywhere in 3.5 years now and Icahn if offering 45 times them. Bostock can’t even really make the argument “thing are getting better” at Yahoo. The reality is they are just trading water, like the stock price.

The true irony here is had Bostock and Yang not held their breath and stomped their feet when Icahn came knocking, they may have been able to avoid in the end what they will end up seeing happening, their resume’s being polished up.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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SEC to Quell Rumors………..Right!!

Does anyone really think the SEC will be able to stop rumors? Do they really?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said Sunday that it and other regulators are firing up new examinations to prevent stock-price maniplation by short sellers and others.The agencies’ goal is the “prevention of the intentional spread of false information intended to manipulate securities prices.”

Now, who is to say what is “false” vs what is “wrong”. We are now delving into the realm of a persons intent and when you do that, it is a losers game. On another note, why are we only looking at short sellers?

How about CEO’s and CFO’s of financials who said “things were ok” only to write down billions months later? Are they not just as guilty?

The SEC is up against it in this one because up until now, the shorts have been right and the firms that have come under attack are poorly managed, over leveraged and have questionable business models for down times. Reads Bear Sterns (BSC), Lehman (LEH).

If I “think Lehman has questionable loans and think management is not forthcoming enough so things must be worse”, then am I spreading false rumors or just speculating? Is this going to be a rear view mirror test? We are going to prosecute people after the fact when what they have said proves wrong? Will journalists get into trouble by reporting these rumors?

Will we investigate Congress-people in an election year like this one who throw bombs about the economy and stocks in an attempt to curry votes? In effect they are hurting equities and stock prices by making the current situation seemingly worse than it is. Surely we can prove half of what is said there is “less than truthful”. Is a SEC investigation into Sen. Schumer coming? clearly his letter lead to a run on the bank. any bad news is bad for Republican’s in the election. Was Schumer pushing Indymac over the edge for votes?

If we are going to investigate Bill Ackman and David Einhorn, let’s look at Schumer’s motives also.

Rumors have and will be around forever. If you have a strong business, they may affect the share price temporarily but not impair it. If your business is weak, they may hurt it….

How about the SEC investigate all those newsletters I get in the mail pumping stocks that never go anywhere?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Monday’s Links

Sears, Bankers, Buffettisms, Hydrogen

– Some interesting thoughts on Sears

Great thoughts

– George has a great collection of Buffett quotes

– Great…..home made hydrogen bombs

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

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