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Sears and Centro JV? The End of Kmart?

There has been some of this floating around as if it is something new so I decided to look at the SEC filings for Centro (CNP) , formerly New Plan Excel Realty Trust for more information.

The rumor was this venture was formed in October to perhaps finish off the Kmart chain for Sears Holdings (SHLD). Like the other rumors (Sears going private), not so fast.

5/5/2008 10-Q
“NPK Redevelopment I, LLC. The Company has a joint venture with Kmart Corporation (Sears Holding Corp.) pursuant to which the joint venture will redevelop three Kmart Supercenter properties formerly owned by Kmart. Under the terms of this joint venture, the Company has agreed to contribute $6.0 million which had been fully contributed as of March 31, 2008. After the Company’s contribution of the total committed amount, the Company had a 20% interest in the venture and is responsible for contributing its pro rata share of any additional capital that might be required by the joint venture; however, the Company does not expect that any significant capital contributions will be required. The joint venture had no loans outstanding as of March 31, 2008. As of March 31, 2008, the book value of our investment in NPK Redevelopment I, LLC was approximately $10.7 million.”


The 2008 filing

“NPK Redevelopment I, LLC. We have a joint venture with Kmart Corporation (Sears Holding Corp.) pursuant to which the joint venture will redevelop three Kmart Supercenter properties formerly owned by Kmart. Under the terms of this joint venture, we have agreed to contribute $6.0 million which had been fully contributed as of December 31, 2007. We will have a 20% interest in the venture and are responsible for contributing our pro rata share of any additional capital that might be required by the joint venture; however, we do not expect that any significant capital contributions will be required. The joint venture had no loans outstanding as of December 31, 2007. As of December 31, 2007, the book value of our investment in NPK Redevelopment I, LLC was approximately $9.5 million.”

2007 Filing:
“NPK Redevelopment I, LLC. We have a joint venture with Kmart Corporation (Sears Holding Corp.) pursuant to which the joint venture will redevelop three Kmart Supercenter properties formerly owned by Kmart. Under the terms of this joint venture, we have agreed to contribute $6.0 million, $3.6 million of which we have contributed as of December 31, 2006. After our contribution of the total committed amount, we will have a 20% interest in the venture and will be responsible for contributing our pro rata share of any additional capital that might be required by the joint venture; however, we do not expect that any significant capital contributions will be required. The joint venture had no loans outstanding as of December 31, 2006. As of December 31, 2006, the book value of our investment in NPK Redevelopment I, LLC was approximately $3.6 million.”

2006 Filing:
“NPK Redevelopment I, LLC. We have a joint venture with Kmart Corporation (Sears Holding Corp.) pursuant to which the joint venture will redevelop three Kmart Supercenter properties formerly owned by Kmart. Under the terms of this joint venture, we have agreed to contribute $6.0 million, of which $1.0 million had been contributed by us as of December 31, 2005. After our contribution of the total committed amount, we will have a 20% interest in the venture and be responsible for contributing our pro rata share of any additional capital that might be required by the joint venture. The joint venture had no loans outstanding as of December 31, 2005. As of December 31, 2005, the book value of our investment in NPK Redevelopment I, LLC was approximately $1.0 million.”

The 2006 filing for FY 2005 is the first mention of the JV. Note the number of Kmart’s affected (3) has not changed.

What is interesting is that they have marked the investment over 50% higher than their cost as of 12/31/2007 and 76% higher on 3/31/2008. In other years, they marked it at their cost. No further details were given.

One can only assume Sears is seeing the same return?

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Wednesday’s Links

Congrats, 1440, Key words, Buffett

Congratulations to Jane

True

– Hard to get all these into investing posts

– It was only a matter of time before the next round of guessing games

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Wednesday's Links

Congrats, 1440, Key words, Buffett

Congratulations to Jane

True

– Hard to get all these into investing posts

– It was only a matter of time before the next round of guessing games

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Inter Parfums (IPAR)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN)- Longbow Neutral » Buy
Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
UPS (UPS)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
United Dominion (UDR)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Equity Res (EQR)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
UnionBanCal (UB)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Bankrate (RATE)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Medivation (MDVN)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
ACE Limited (ACE)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
NCR Corp (NCR)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Fulton Fincl (FULT)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Valley National (VLY)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
WD-40 Company (WDFC)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Capital Trust (CT)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Marsh McLennan (MMC)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral

Downgrades
Children’s Place (PLCE)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Wyeth (WYE)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Bankrate (RATE)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Kimco Realty (KIM)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Tween Brands (TWB)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Gymboree (GYMB)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Asset Acceptance Capital (AACC)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Skyepharma plc (SKYE)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Synovus (SNV)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Tronox (TRX)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight
Teva Pharm (TEVA)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold $55 » $47
Downey Fincl (DSL)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Omnicom (OMC)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Willis Group (WSH)- Citigroup Buy » Hold

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Wednesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Inter Parfums (IPAR)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Schnitzer Steel (SCHN)- Longbow Neutral » Buy
Genesis Energy, L.P. (GEL)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
UPS (UPS)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
United Dominion (UDR)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Equity Res (EQR)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
UnionBanCal (UB)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Bankrate (RATE)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Medivation (MDVN)- Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
ACE Limited (ACE)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
NCR Corp (NCR)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Fulton Fincl (FULT)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Valley National (VLY)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
WD-40 Company (WDFC)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Capital Trust (CT)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Marsh McLennan (MMC)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral

Downgrades
Children’s Place (PLCE)- Sterne Agee Buy » Hold
Wyeth (WYE)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Bankrate (RATE)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Kimco Realty (KIM)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Tween Brands (TWB)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Gymboree (GYMB)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Asset Acceptance Capital (AACC)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Skyepharma plc (SKYE)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Synovus (SNV)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Tronox (TRX)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight
Teva Pharm (TEVA)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold $55 » $47
Downey Fincl (DSL)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Omnicom (OMC)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Willis Group (WSH)- Citigroup Buy » Hold

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Boone Pickens Energy Plan

Ya’ know what, this is what it will take, the market solving the problem..

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Fooling Some of The People…..A Review

So, finished David Einhorn’s book over vacation. Pissed me off…

Let’s just put aside the whole “short seller” argument. Like I have said before, I do not care how folks make money, short, long, whatever. Short sellers, when wrong, get creamed and can make longs tons of cash in a very sort time when the shorts cover en mass.

Now, Einhorn was right about Allied. What pissed me of was the “regulators”. Far from being asleep at the wheel, it is their abject ambivalence at the Allied situation that ought to infuriate people. They just did not care. Both the SEC, SBA and Congress (surprise!!) are to blame here. Einhorn painstakingly details his efforts to bring the Allied fraud to regulators who just did not care…..

Now we are talking about further regulating capital markets? Why bother? We do not even enforce the regulations we have now!! Why add more regulations that can be ignored by the very folks who are supposed to enforce them? Why?

Do not feel bad for David though, the publicity he has gotten has vaulted him to “famed” status and now his picks and thoughts are sought after. Shorting a stock successfully just became far easier for him now that millions believe in him. Now, this is warranted given his 20% plus annual returns at Greenlight, it is just that a whole lot more folks are listening to him now.

Too bad Lehman’s (LEH) Erin Callahan was not one of them

Read Einhorn’s book. It is an eye opening and sobering experience.

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Buffett Talks About "Mistakes" (video)

This is interesting coming off Bill Miller’s recent interview.

From the inteveiw with Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Chairman,

“What is the biggest miss that you didn’t get in on that you wish you had?”

Warren responded, “Fannie Mae (FNE) early 1980s, Walmart (WMT) mid 1990s both of those deals could have made us as much as $10B”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Ambac Files 8-K

Ambac (ABK) just filed an 8-K with the SEC.

On July 7, 2008, Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (“Ambac”) issued a press release announcing that it has had positive discussions with the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance for the State of Wisconsin (OCI) regarding a plan to capitalize its Connie Lee subsidiary with an $850 million contribution of capital by Ambac Assurance Corporation (AAC).

Ambac intends to seek formal approval from the OCI for capitalization of Connie Lee and believes that it will obtain OCI’s approval of the plan. A contribution of capital of $850 million to Connie Lee would bring Connie Lee’s total capital to slightly over $1.0 billion. The new capital will support the claims paying resources for Connie Lee’s financial guarantee business, which will focus solely on U.S. public finance and global infrastructure transactions. Ambac has been in communication with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s in pursuit of Aaa/AAA ratings for Connie Lee.

Also:
On July 7, 2008, Ambac issued a press release providing financial details regarding the collateral requirements of its investment agreement business.

Rating agency actions affecting Ambac Assurance Corporation (AAC) during June 2008 resulted in $506 million of increased collateral posting requirements in the investment agreement business and investment agreement terminations of $270 million:

The downgrade of AAC by Standard & Poor’s to AA on June 5, 2008, resulted in an incremental collateral posting requirement of approximately $76 million.

Moody’s downgrade of AAC to Aa3 on June 19, 2008, resulted in an incremental collateral posting requirement of approximately $70 million and investment agreement terminations of approximately $270 million.

The action by Fitch to withdraw the ratings of AAC on June 26, 2008, resulted in an incremental collateral posting requirement of approximately $360 million.

The current collateral and termination obligations have been adequately covered by the investment agreement asset portfolio.

Aggregate collateral requirements and terminations for the investment agreement business at various AAC rating levels, starting with the lower of AAC’s two current ratings (currently Moody’s at Aa3), are as follows:

The book value of investment agreement liabilities at May 31, 2008, amounted to $6.9 billion (down from $7.7 billion at December 31, 2007). The market value of the investment agreement asset portfolio, including cash of approximately $400 million, as of May 31, 2008, is approximately $5.6 billion. In addition, the market value of interest rate derivative contracts held by the investment agreement business is positive $160 million.

Based on May 31, 2008 investment agreement asset portfolio market values:

Upon a downgrade of AAC to A+ or A1, which Ambac believes is unlikely, Ambac estimates that the investment agreement asset portfolio has sufficient value to meet projected cumulative collateral requirements and terminations.

Upon a downgrade to A or A2, which Ambac believes is unlikely, Ambac estimates that the investment agreement asset portfolio is insufficient to cover the projected cumulative collateral requirement and terminations by approximately $1.0 billion.

Upon a downgrade to A- or A3, which Ambac believes is unlikely, Ambac estimates that the investment agreement asset portfolio is insufficient to cover the projected cumulative collateral requirement and terminations by approximately $1.1 billion.

In the event of cash and/or security shortfalls in the investment agreement business, management anticipates utilizing the resources of AAC (through inter-company transactions). Utilizing the resources of AAC would allow time for the assets in the investment agreement asset portfolio to recover in value and would preempt claims on insurance policies issued by AAC and prevent the realization of losses in the investment agreement asset portfolio. Ambac is in discussions with the Office of the Commissioner of Insurance of the State of Wisconsin (OCI) with respect to its strategies for managing the collateral posting and termination obligations of the investment agreement business. These discussions have been positive.

Ambac believes that it will obtain OCI’s approval of its plans to address the collateral posting and termination obligations of the investment agreement business in the event of downgrades to the A/A2 rating level. AAC’s investment portfolio is valued at approximately $12 billion with over $1 billion in cash and short-term securities at May 31, 2008. At the A/A2 rating level, Ambac management would evaluate its various resources and utilize those considered most appropriate to satisfy the contractual obligations of the investment agreement business.

Management continues to closely monitor the cash requirements of the investment agreement portfolio and manages the related cash and securities portfolio accordingly.

Full filing

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

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JP Morgan’s (JPM) Dimon on Bear Sterns (video)

Best line? “There is a difference between buying a house and buying a house on fire”, Dimon.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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JP Morgan's (JPM) Dimon on Bear Sterns (video)

Best line? “There is a difference between buying a house and buying a house on fire”, Dimon.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Bits and Pieces From the Week Away

Some tidbits…

– Starbucks finally decided to close some locations, 600 of them. Back in Feb. I said about the then announced plans, “100 US store closing just are not even the beginning of what is necessary”. Sorry folks….600…still not enough.

– Blockbuster (BBI) realized Circuit City (CC) sucks and 1 + 1 does not equal 3.

– Now that lead paint litigation is dying, Sherwin Williams (SHW) must look even more attractive to potential buyers.

– Berkshire Hathaway posted its worst first half in 18 years….has Buffett “lost it”? (please note sarcasm….)

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Shapiro Defends Six Flags (SIX)

Six Flags’ (SIX) Mark Shapiro has taken to the airwaves..

Here is a nut shell is Six Flags problem. In New England Shapiro competes against Lake Compounce, Story Land and Canobie Lake for family’s dollars. In a tightened spending environment, Six Flags by far is the lowest value for a dollar. With Six Flags, if you want to park within a mile or two of the park, the honor will cost you $25. For the other three, I can park by the front door for free. Once inside, the cost differentials continue. Even with his new ticket pricing he mentions in the video, he is far more expensive than the competition.

Shapiro can blame gas and the economy all he wants but the bottom line is Six Flags has been struggling with attendance for years. At least this excuse is better that last year when they blamed God. Yea, I know, Q1 attendance was up from last year but it was only because Easter came early this year.

Shapiro is upbeat in the appearance but one has to wonder, “when will the customer satisfaction surveys mentioned in every single release by the company actually going to show up as a profit?” Even a dramatic improvement such as a far lower loss would be good. Ideas? Anyone?

Last month I wondered if Six Flags was soon to be bankrupts. Now we have its debt ratings being lowered, a death at a park ans a director dumping shares.

Here is another opinion on the subject from Chicago.

One can now by three shares for less than the cost of a soda at the park….the soda is still a better deal

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Tuesday’s Links

Thank you, Thank you, Conspiracy, Gumshoe

– Thanks for the mention

– Thanks for reading

– Wondered when this stuff would come up

– This is great

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Tuesday's Links

Thank you, Thank you, Conspiracy, Gumshoe

– Thanks for the mention

– Thanks for reading

– Wondered when this stuff would come up

– This is great

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

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