Categories
Articles

Circuit City…..going ….going…. Schoonover Inexplicably Still There

CEO Phillip Schoonover continues to be devoid of any reality……you have to read this.

Circuit City (CC) says its loss widened in the first quarter because of a 11.3% drop in sales at established stores ads it is also suspending its dividend. The soon to be extinct retailer reported a loss of $164.8 million, or $1 per share, compared with a loss of $54.6 million, or 33 cents per share a year ago. Circuit City Stores Inc. says revenue fell 7% to $2.30 billion from $2.49 billion.

For the Q2, Circuit City (CC) expects a loss of $170 million to $185 million. Analysts expect a loss of $143.4 million.

Lousy, right? Not according to Schoonover..

“In the first quarter, we continued to see improvement in many of our operating performance measures,” said Philip J. Schoonover, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Circuit City Stores, Inc. “We are rebuilding our selling culture and focusing on creating a good first and last impression with the customer. We have seen improved trends in our store close rate and in our services and accessories attachments, and we are delivering a better customer experience in our stores as evidenced by the upward trends in our third-party mystery shop scores. In short, the quarter represented improved execution and solid, steady progress towards our goals, and we expect to start to see year-over-year improvements in our financial results beginning in the second half of the year. I want to thank our associates for maintaining a sharp focus on expense controls, in order to build a more competitive cost structure, as well as for their hard work and dedication throughout the quarter.”

How about looking at some metrics that actually matter? Executive compensation? Sales collapsed, profits collapsed, margins fell, expenses as a percentage of sales rose, cash balances fell 74% to $94 million, accounts payable rose and debt rose 30%.

But wait, there is more:
“Crisp execution of our retail turnaround efforts remains our primary focus. The outcome of those efforts will position Circuit City well for the future and help us to capitalize on the anticipated improvement in the macroeconomic climate during the second half of the fiscal year,” concluded Schoonover.

Now, Phil, how about we just stop the collapse before we start talking about turning this thing around? Nothing good has happened in the three years you have been there.

If that was not enough, it would seem they are going to turn down the overture from Blockbuster (BBI). While I fell that it would be a disaster for Blockbuster, it would be the best thing for Circuit city holders as they will never see the price Blockbuster offered in this decade.

Said Schoonover, “As we previously announced, the board of directors is leading a process to explore strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value, and that review continues. The board has not determined any course of action. As part of that process, today we filed a shelf registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission in order to give us greater flexibility to respond to strategic opportunities as they arise. Separately, during the quarter, we settled the potential proxy contest with Wattles Capital Management.”

What other choice could he possibly have? Nothing he has done in three years has worked. Just sell the damn things and give shareholder something….

The final slap in the face?

the company reaffirmed the following outlooks:
Fiscal 2009 Outlook
The company reaffirmed the following expectations for fiscal 2009:
— Consolidated net sales relatively unchanged from the prior year
— A mid-single digit domestic segment comparable store sales decline

Uh, any idea about little things like profits or losses? It kind of really does matter more than the other two above…

Jeez…one more
“For the second quarter, the company expects to record a loss from continuing operations before income taxes of $170 million to $185 million, compared with a loss of $128.2 million in the prior year second quarter. While the expected loss is larger than the prior year period, the year-over- year increase in the loss is significantly smaller than the increase in the first quarter loss.”

Translation? Q2 will suck also, just not as bad as Q1. I think they want a pat on the back for that.

Great job guys…

I am trying to come up with something funny to say but I cannot think of anything better than what is in this press release…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Buffett in Wachovia?

It has been a while since the latest rumor about what Berkshire’s (BRK.A) Buffett is buying so lets look at this one. It think the last one was a Bear Sterns deal?

Wachovia (WB) credit protection costs fell yesterday on rumors Buffett is considering making an investment in the bank. Five-year credit protection costs on Wachovia fell to 193 basis points, or $193,000 a year to protect $10 million of debt, in from about 202 basis points.

“There is unconfirmed speculation that Warren Buffett is considering an investment in Wachovia,” said Paul Foster, option strategist at Web information site theflyonthewall.com in Chicago.

Now, Buffett does have consider equity investment in financials in Wells Fargo (WFC), M&T Bank (MTB) and US Bancorp (USB).

Would he consider a purchase in Wachovia? The argument could be made that it is undervalued today based on it’s long term potential. We also know that when Buffett invests in banks, the time frame to this point is measure not just in years but decades.

But, Wachovia will not be one of those investments. The reason? Management. Buffett has said repeatedly about Wells Fargo that its management is the “finest at any bank” and M&T and USB have so far shown to have escaped the worst of the current situation through conservative decisions.

This is not to say that what is left at Wachovia management wise is not good, it is just that the situation is unsettled. Buffett, to my knowledge has yet to invest in a company during a time of management transition, especially when the situation has deteriorated as it has at Wachovia. I guess one could argue his investment in Salomon Brothers was one such investment but if we use that as a guide then since he has called it one of his “worst decisions” we can then all but eliminate a Wachovia deal.

What if Buffett did do a deal? If he did then we can only figure that he sees a current valuation so low that even mediocre management at the bank will not mess up the eventual revaluation to normalized levels.

At the end f the day this is nothing more than a rumor but the exercise is always fun..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WB,WFC, none

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Thursday’s Links

Fat Pitch, Gore, FireFox, Klarman

Nice work George……

Why is this news?

I agree

– Anything he says should be listened to

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Thursday's Links

Fat Pitch, Gore, FireFox, Klarman

Nice work George……

Why is this news?

I agree

– Anything he says should be listened to

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Amer Italian Pasta (AITP)- DA Davidson Underperform » Buy
Liberty Prop (LRY)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Administaff (ASF)- First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Kensey Nash (KNSY)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
ASM Intl NV (ASMI)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Endurance Specialty (ENH)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Mueller Water (MWA)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Borg Warner (BWA)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
Smith & Nephew (SNN)- UBS Neutral » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Mentor Graphics (MENT)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Methanex (MEOH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Infosys (INFY)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Platinum Underwriters (PTP)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Thursday's Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Amer Italian Pasta (AITP)- DA Davidson Underperform » Buy
Liberty Prop (LRY)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Administaff (ASF)- First Analysis Sec Equal-Weight » Overweight
Kensey Nash (KNSY)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
ASM Intl NV (ASMI)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Endurance Specialty (ENH)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Mueller Water (MWA)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Borg Warner (BWA)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight
Smith & Nephew (SNN)- UBS Neutral » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Mentor Graphics (MENT)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Methanex (MEOH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Bankunited Fin (BKUNA)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Infosys (INFY)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Platinum Underwriters (PTP)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Macalope: Keep Trying Pal….

So the Macalope is at it again, only this time he is left with little more than a pathetic insult and fact twisting. Actually that is all he had the first time also but why quibble with little things like facts…he doesn’t. Thanks to John who emailed me the post.

First, his diatribe:

Now. Where is his pathetic insult? Here:

“Then he threw out the other rotator cuff patting himself on the other shoulder just after the keynote and jacktastically put quotes around “suckers” as if it were something that Jobs actually called people who bought the original iPhone. Quotation marks, Todd. They mean something. You might want to brush up on their proper ironic usage.”

Now if we go to the post I wrote and actually read it (apparently the Mac did not) we see the second sentence in says….”By the way…Jobs did not actually say it”………

The he says this “Sadly, Todd’s brilliant analysis would hold a little more weight were the iPhone 3G not actually more expensive than the original iPhone”

Ok. Now stop laughing and let’s look, really, stop laughing. 1st iPhone came out and was priced for purchasers at $499. New iPhone comes out and I can buy it at $199. In Macland this is more expensive…

Here is where he plays with facts. The phone IS $300 cheaper. But depending on your data usage plan with AT&T, you may end up spending about the same or $100 or so more AFTER TWO YEARS. If you are not a heavy text user, the phone and its plan are CHEAPER. Also Mac, what about the 1/4 to 1/3 of iPhones purchased that are eventually unlocked? Aren’t they stunningly cheaper, or are we just ignoring them because they do not fit our argument?

Wasn’t the very reason Apple said they lowered the price was to “spur sales”?

Why are Apple (AAPL) folks reduced to playing with the truth? The phone is cheaper…period.

When I wrote the first post I was waiting for a sniveling reply…..got it…

To be honest, I expected a little better, not much ,but a little.

What this all boils down to is people who spent enormous time and effort justifying the $499 price when the phone came out to those of us who laughed and said it would not go mainstream without a huge price cut. Now that we have been proven right by none other than Steve Jobs and Apple, they have nothing left but to resort to questionable recitations of statements and fact.

I was asked by a commenter after the last posts on the subject “to leave Apple fans alone”. I replied that I could care less about the phone or the company but do so enjoy getting their blood pumping. The vitriol and threats that spew from them over a phone and a computer is hysterical. It also happens to be even more fun that we were dead on regarding the price……

Anyone own an Apple TV?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

More on Western Sizzlin’ (WEST)

I have posted here before the work from George over at Fat Pitch regarding Western Sizzlin’ (WEST). Now it is Jeff Annello’s time to bat…

Annello does a great job in this post. He then follows it with this one.

I do not own shares of WEST but it does look enticing. If you want to wait, the restaurant biz will likely suffer for a bit so you have time…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

More on Western Sizzlin' (WEST)

I have posted here before the work from George over at Fat Pitch regarding Western Sizzlin’ (WEST). Now it is Jeff Annello’s time to bat…

Annello does a great job in this post. He then follows it with this one.

I do not own shares of WEST but it does look enticing. If you want to wait, the restaurant biz will likely suffer for a bit so you have time…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

More on Bond Insurers MBIA (MBI), Ambac (ABK)- Update

Hedge Fund Manager Tom Brown of Second Curve Capital, has recently taken a long position in MBIA’s stock. He recently responded to an email sent by Whitney Tilson.

In looking at this lately, it seems like the Bear argument against the stocks has gone from a strict dissertation of fact to a bit of yelling fire in a crowded theater. Even Ackman has been extremely quiet lately about the subject preferring to talk more about short selling in general vs. just about the insurers. Perhaps this is because he has drastically cut back or totally eliminated his short position in both.

In the post, Brown says:
“Next, Whitney slams the company for changing its plans for the $900 million. He argues the company once said it would downstream the cash, and is outraged it has had a change of heart without (until now) informing investors, customers, the rating agencies, and regulators. He then suggests the company’s actions might constitute fraud and market manipulation.

Say what? That’s as harsh as it is inaccurate. Here are the facts. Management only expressed an intention to downstream the $900 million, and didn’t do so right away so it could receive more clarity on future actions by the rating agencies. The New York State Insurance Commissioner was certainly involved in the discussion of where the money would go, since one of the company’s options under review was (and still is) the possibility of downstreaming the $900 million into a new subsidiary to write new business. So this is not fraud and market manipulation. It’s simple, above-board capital allocation.

Whitney goes on to claim MBIA has denied policyholders money that’s been promised to them so that management can keep their jobs. Policyholders are thus “screwed.” He then ends his tirade with a nice piece of thundering self-righteousness:

MBIA seems to have forgotten that they’re a regulated entity and that they’re not allowed to balance their “obligations to policyholders with optimizing returns to our shareholders”. The deal with any insurance company is that policyholders come first and only if there’s money left over does anything go to the holding company, which is why MBIA is [likely to fall further] and why we’re still short it.

The good news is that, based on what I’ve read, NY State Insurance Commissioner Eric Dinallo is on to these guys and I assume won’t allow these . . . actions.

Whoa! Can we get back to Insurance 101 for a second? Whitney surely understands the difference between a holding company and an insurance subsidiary. Dinallo regulates the insurance sub; he has no jurisdiction over the holding company. What’s more—and I’m sure Whitney understands this, as well–Jay Brown and the other members of MBIA’s board of directors have a fiduciary obligation to their shareholders. It is very, very simple. “

He then finishes with:
“If the rating agencies don’t rate MBIA’s insurance sub AAA, then the insurance subsidiary (which was overcapitalized even when it was rated triple-A, recall) is extremely overcapitalized at its new rating. The last thing the board should be thinking about, therefore, is sending the unit another $900 million. Especially since, with the company writing little new business, its risk exposure is declining.

Don’t forget, MBIA already exceeded S&P’s stated minimum capital requirements for a triple-A rating by $900 million at the end of the first quarter, and exceeded Moody’s minimum by $2.8 billion.

Despite what vocal shorts like Whitney Tilson have to say, neither MBIA or Ambac have capital or liquidity shortfalls. Interestingly, in eviscerating Jay Brown’s letter to his shareholders this week, Whitney let the following comment stand: “we continue to feel comfortable with our economic loss estimates embodied in the reserve and impairment figures we provided to the market in our last earnings call.”

So the company is manifestly well-capitalized, and continues to be comfortable with its loss estimates.

Whitney, maybe, just maybe, the outlook for MBIA isn’t nearly as bleak as you insist. It might pay to take a harder look! “

Now, I am a fan of Whitney and readers here have known for some time that I am as I regularly post his appearances in and his writing on a variety of subjects. That being said, I think the short story for both monolines is done. The only thing left is insolvency which, NYC Insurance Commissioner Dinallo will not allow. If that is true, then the only way the shorts can influence prices is too scare people more.

I think Whitney may be running the risk of looking a bit like a fear monger on this one….

Read Felix Salmon’s take on it here:


Read Whole Post Here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Phillip Morris (PM) Declares Dividend

The Board of Directors of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) today declared the company’s inaugural regular quarterly dividend of $0.46 per common share, payable on July 10, 2008, to stockholders of record as of June 30, 2008. The ex-dividend date is June 26, 2008.

“Combined with the $13.0 billion, two-year share repurchase program which began in May this year, our first regular dividend as an independent company reflects our strong commitment to rewarding our shareholders in a generous manner,” said Louis Camilleri, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

The dividend gives the stock at today’s prices a yield of roughly 3.8%

Read Release Here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long P<

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Morgan Stanley’s (MS) Results Fall: Your Surprised?

The difference here between Morgan and Citi (C), Lehman (LEH) and Merrill (MER) is that CEO John Mack has not been running his mouth around town telling everyone “all is well”.

“Given the turbulent environment this quarter, we stayed close to shore and continued strengthening the Firm’s capital and liquidity positions,” John J. Mack, Morgan Stanley’s chairman and chief executive, said in a statement. “The difficult market conditions and lower levels of client activity impacted our results, particularly in fixed income and asset management.”

See, the things is that no one (or at least no one should have) expected the results to be good. So , why tell everyone they would be.

By being quiet, Mack, at least for now has escaped the fate of all his peer except those at Goldman Sachs (GS) who, it should be noted have also kept their mouths shut.

Morgan’s profit, amounting to 95 cents a share, was down from the $2.36 billion it earned last year. Howver, they managed to slightly exceed expectations of 92 cents a share. Revenues from its fixed-income sales and trading unit fell 85% from the same time last year to $414 million, due to losses in mortgage trading and lower revenues in other products.

The firm reported a $519 million loss from loan commitments, including those made to private equity firms. While it lost money on hedges, it saw some gains from marking some holdings to market.

All in all, nothing out of the ordinary, bad, but nothing outlandish. Had Mack been running around telling everyone not to worry, he might be getting nervous about now.

Has anyone learned this lesson yet?????????

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C, GS, None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Morgan Stanley's (MS) Results Fall: Your Surprised?

The difference here between Morgan and Citi (C), Lehman (LEH) and Merrill (MER) is that CEO John Mack has not been running his mouth around town telling everyone “all is well”.

“Given the turbulent environment this quarter, we stayed close to shore and continued strengthening the Firm’s capital and liquidity positions,” John J. Mack, Morgan Stanley’s chairman and chief executive, said in a statement. “The difficult market conditions and lower levels of client activity impacted our results, particularly in fixed income and asset management.”

See, the things is that no one (or at least no one should have) expected the results to be good. So , why tell everyone they would be.

By being quiet, Mack, at least for now has escaped the fate of all his peer except those at Goldman Sachs (GS) who, it should be noted have also kept their mouths shut.

Morgan’s profit, amounting to 95 cents a share, was down from the $2.36 billion it earned last year. Howver, they managed to slightly exceed expectations of 92 cents a share. Revenues from its fixed-income sales and trading unit fell 85% from the same time last year to $414 million, due to losses in mortgage trading and lower revenues in other products.

The firm reported a $519 million loss from loan commitments, including those made to private equity firms. While it lost money on hedges, it saw some gains from marking some holdings to market.

All in all, nothing out of the ordinary, bad, but nothing outlandish. Had Mack been running around telling everyone not to worry, he might be getting nervous about now.

Has anyone learned this lesson yet?????????

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C, GS, None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Western Sizzlin Chairman’s Letter

Hey, this is a must read. It is an extremely candid and detailed resuscitation of the company, Western Sizzlin (WEST).

Read the letter here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Western Sizzlin Chairman's Letter

Hey, this is a must read. It is an extremely candid and detailed resuscitation of the company, Western Sizzlin (WEST).

Read the letter here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books