THURSDAY’S PICKS Guy Adami recommends Celgene (CELG) $58.53
Karen Finerman prefers WellPoint (WLP) $55.48
Pete Najarian suggests Amylin (AMLN) $30.98
Jeff Macke thinks Yahoo (YHOO) $27.16 is a sell.
WEDNESDAY’S RESULTS Jeff Macke likes Border’s Group (BGP) $6.25 because “it was a dollar higher a week ago.” Close $5.80 LOSS
Guy Adami recommends Charter Communications (CHTR) $1.31 on a recent upgrade. Close $1.39 Gain
Karen Finerman suggests Alliance One (AOI) $5.83 but emphasizes that this trade comes with “tons of risk.” Close $5.85 GAIN
Pete Najarian thinks Washington Mutual (WM) $9.5 is an attractive stock in a toxic area. Close $9.40 LOSS
2008 Records: Brian Schaeffer= 0-1 Carter Worth= 1-1 Jon Najarian= 4-3 Jeff Macke= 40-34-1 Tim Seymore= 17-14 Guy Adami= 42-36 Pete Najarian= 38-37 Karen Finerman= 37-31-1 Joe Terrenova= 1-3
2007 Results (Since 6/21): Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56% Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60% Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Altria Group (MO) reaffirmed its 2008 guidance for adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations in the range of $1.63 to $1.67. This represents a growth rate of approximately 9% to 11% from an adjusted base of $1.50 per share in 2007. “This full-year earnings per share forecast reflects expected stronger earnings per share growth in the second half of this year when compared to the first half,” said CEO Micheal Szymanczyk.
“Altria and its operating companies have dedicated employees, strong brands, remarkable cash flows, disciplined financial management, and an increasingly diverse tobacco product portfolio,” Mr. Szymanczyk continued and then said, “I believe that these strengths should enable Altria to deliver consistent annual total shareholder return in excess of 12%.”
Following today’s Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Altria’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per common share, payable on July 10, 2008 to stockholders of record as of June 13, 2008. The ex-dividend date is June 11, 2008.
For those of you not very math proficient, that makes a $1.16 annual dividend for a nice very fat 5.25% yield. A 5% (and very safe and growing) yield and double digit earnings growth. Anything not to like? OK, sure tobacco kills but last I checked, Coke (KO) and Pepsi (PEP) were not “healthy for you” and folks have no qualms about investing with them.
Szymanczyk also said, “As the company looks to the future, it has clear recognition of the fact that conventional cigarettes are harmful in society and we’d like to make some progress on improving that situation,”. He said he plans on doing that by rapidly expanding the company’s line of smokeless products. Szymanczyk said the company already has made a number of modifications to those products based on input from consumers in the test markets (Dallas and Indianapolis). “We’re making remarkable progress,” he said. “We’ve learned a lot that will allow us to efficiently develop our products further.”
Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MO, none
Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings gave a timeline for the company to convert its business to digital distribution: 5 years. After that, he believes the mail-order DVD business will peak and then start to decline.
“We think the by-mail business is very strong but will probably peak in the next five years. Our key challenge is growing earnings per share and subscribers while funding streaming which should give us years of subscriber and earnings expansion.”
This comes less than two weeks after the company rolled out its set-top box to good reviews.
The news here is the contrast between two companies. One doggedly hanging on to an outdated business model and being dragged into the current one and another, a pioneer in the current model already looking down the road at the next one.
Rather than buying a heap of problems at Circuit City (CC) and trying to convert its video rental stores in Apple (AAPL) store look-a-likes, Blockbuster ought to be using that energy and the money involved to try to leap ahead of Netflix in the download game. It has not ruined its brand yet and any box that streamed movies into the home would get a try by folks.
But, the longer they wait, the more the current offerings become entrenched with consumers and the harder, and more expensive, changing their behavior becomes.
But hey, Blockbuster will always have the less than 1% of the population that actually still likes going to the video store…
Best line? “If the US had become as energy efficient as my company has in the last 5 years, it would not be importing a single drop of oil”…..Nuff said..
This guy is awesome……will anyone in Congress actually listen? How about this. Rather than bringing the execs from Exxon (XOM) or BP (BP) to the hill for a lecture, how about inviting Liveris there so he can give Congress much needed caning? Think they have the guts to do it? Me either…
Mishkin, who has been a member of the Board since September 5, 2006, submitted his letter of resignation to President Bush. He will return to the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University as a professor of economics and resume teaching in the fall.
Mishkin, 57, was appointed to the Board by President Bush to fill an unexpired term ending January 31, 2014.
When Mr. Mishkin leaves, the Fed’s will have just four governors, making it harder to conduct its business. Board meetings usually need a quorum of four governors, so the absence of just one could interfere with policy decisions and increase the work load on Chairman Ben Bernanke, Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, governor Kevin Warsh and Mr. Randall Kroszner.
The Fed normally has seven governors but currently has only five because Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D., Conn.) in a typical partisan infantile action has refused to move on White House nominations to those seats. Wonder why we cannot get things done? Mr. Dodd has also refused to even schedule a vote on the nomination of a sitting governor, Randall Kroszner, to a new term. Mr. Kroszner’s term has expired under rules is permitted to continue serving until a replacement is sworn in. Terms to the Fed board are 14 years, and members can be appointed to serve unexpired terms.
Essentially, Dodd would rather add to an already strenuous and understaffed situation at the Fed than let the President’s nominees even come to a vote. Does Dodd actually wonder why no one thought he might a decent Democratic nominee?
Anyone sitting there complaining why the Fed “isn’t getting more done” ought to send their inquiries to Mr. Dodd.
All governors have votes on the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee, along with five of the 12 regional reserve bank presidents. Mr. Mishkin’s departure is unlikely to affect voting dynamics on the committee as he has always voted with Mr. Bernanke.
What is does mean is that either Bush or the next President will have a host of vacancies to fill on the Fed
Borders posted results last night and ,well, not great, but better than expected in some areas…
Borders posted a loss of 53 cents per share vs a 63 cent loss last year. Same-store sales at Borders U.S. superstores, or sales at stores open at least a year, fell 4.1 percent. Total consolidated sales, at $784.7 million, were down 1.0% over a year ago. At Borders domestic superstores, comparable store sales for the period decreased by 4.1%. Without the impact of music, same-store sales at Borders domestic superstores decreased by 1.7% for the quarter. The music decline was expected as Borders has made the decision to dramatically scale back operations there.
The really encouraging news was that debt was reduced to $591.9 million at the end of the first quarter from $722.8 million at the end of the year-earlier quarter and cash flow improved by $133 million.
“Considering the overall conditions, we were pleased,” said CEO George Jones. “The sales environment was tough. We did a much better job managing inventory, we reduced our debt in the quarter by $131 million, and we had a big increase in cash flow.”
Why not be discouraged?
The new website just went up a started yesterday. It will be a profit center this year and if you have not been there, it has been done very well.
Here is a video of the new site:
Also, the new store concept has only begun to roll out. Initial reports are very encouraging and given the rate at which they are opening new ones, one can only assume that what management is seeing it likes, a lot.
All in all, modest results and pretty much what one should have expected given the retail environment out there. That being said, one must look 2 quarters out for any real confirmation that the plan is working. By that time more new concept stores will be open so we will have additional evidence on them and the website will be functioning for 6 months, enough time to make preliminary observations on its effectiveness.
All this assume the company is still independent by then….. by no means a certainty
This is not a Democrat or Republican issue. Both have held either the White house or Congress over the last three decades and neither has done anything. Now, we’ll pay….
Today, after announcing a 20% price increases Dow Chemical’s (DOW) CEO Andrew Liveris sai, “For years, Washington has failed to address the issue of rising energy costs and, as a result, the country now faces a true energy crisis, one that is causing serious harm to America’s manufacturing sector and all consumers of energy. The government’s failure to develop a comprehensive energy policy is causing U.S. industry to lose ground when it comes to global competitiveness, and our own domestic markets are now starting to see demand destruction throughout the U.S.”
Although Government inflation numbers have remained relatively flat, chiefly because producers were not passing along prices increase, we are now seeing the end that phenomena. The are not too many products we consume today that do not contain a product DOW produces. That being said, producers now have the following option, decrease profits or increase prices. Guess what they will choose.
There is another, more unpleasant option. Move. Liveris started this at Dow three years ago and it is the reason they have been able to hold earnings constant despite 42% cost increases. In 2002 feedstock costs for Dow were $8 billion. This year that number is expected to hit $32 billion.
Natural gas has almost tripled and oil has doubled in that time frame. We are going to see an exodus of manufacturing out of the US to nations that offer cheaper input prices. We saw this in the labor markets in the 1990’s and the exodus that may begin to happen now will be widespread.
Liveris gave a heads up into what is next….”In addition to these price increases,” Liveris said, “the Company is continuing its aggressive cost-control plan internally and is accelerating its existing top-down competitiveness review for all of its businesses and manufacturing facilities in the light of these new feedstock and energy prices.” Translation? More US job losses
Liveris saw current events happening three years ago and has railed against Congress during that time frame for a national energy policy. Congress rather than acting has done nothing.
This is not a Democrat or Republican issue. Both have held either the White house or Congress over the last three decades and neither has done anything. Now, we’ll pay….
Today, after announcing a 20% price increases Dow Chemical’s (DOW) CEO Andrew Liveris sai, “For years, Washington has failed to address the issue of rising energy costs and, as a result, the country now faces a true energy crisis, one that is causing serious harm to America’s manufacturing sector and all consumers of energy. The government’s failure to develop a comprehensive energy policy is causing U.S. industry to lose ground when it comes to global competitiveness, and our own domestic markets are now starting to see demand destruction throughout the U.S.”
Although Government inflation numbers have remained relatively flat, chiefly because producers were not passing along prices increase, we are now seeing the end that phenomena. The are not too many products we consume today that do not contain a product DOW produces. That being said, producers now have the following option, decrease profits or increase prices. Guess what they will choose.
There is another, more unpleasant option. Move. Liveris started this at Dow three years ago and it is the reason they have been able to hold earnings constant despite 42% cost increases. In 2002 feedstock costs for Dow were $8 billion. This year that number is expected to hit $32 billion.
Natural gas has almost tripled and oil has doubled in that time frame. We are going to see an exodus of manufacturing out of the US to nations that offer cheaper input prices. We saw this in the labor markets in the 1990’s and the exodus that may begin to happen now will be widespread.
Liveris gave a heads up into what is next….”In addition to these price increases,” Liveris said, “the Company is continuing its aggressive cost-control plan internally and is accelerating its existing top-down competitiveness review for all of its businesses and manufacturing facilities in the light of these new feedstock and energy prices.” Translation? More US job losses
Liveris saw current events happening three years ago and has railed against Congress during that time frame for a national energy policy. Congress rather than acting has done nothing.
Upgrades NGAS Resources (NGAS)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform WellPoint (WLP)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform Polaris Inds (PII)- FTN Midwest Sell » Neutral AGCO Corp (AG)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform Consolidated Comms Illinois (CNSL)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform Citizens (CZN)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform BCE Inc (BCE)- UBS Sell » Neutral Knight Transportation (KNX)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform EnergySouth (ENSI)- Brean Murray Hold » Buy Newfield Expl (NFX)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy LCA Vision (LCAV)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy American Axle (AXL)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Downgrades United Comm Banks (UCBI)- Sterne Agee Hold » Sell Liberty Prop (LRY)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform Duke Realty (DRE)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform Borg Warner (BWA)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold General Motors (GM)- Citigroup Buy » Hold Anheuser-Busch (BUD)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold BRT Realty Trust (BRT)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Upgrades NGAS Resources (NGAS)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform WellPoint (WLP)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform Polaris Inds (PII)- FTN Midwest Sell » Neutral AGCO Corp (AG)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform Consolidated Comms Illinois (CNSL)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform Citizens (CZN)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform BCE Inc (BCE)- UBS Sell » Neutral Knight Transportation (KNX)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform EnergySouth (ENSI)- Brean Murray Hold » Buy Newfield Expl (NFX)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Hold » Buy LCA Vision (LCAV)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico (PAC)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy American Axle (AXL)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Downgrades United Comm Banks (UCBI)- Sterne Agee Hold » Sell Liberty Prop (LRY)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform Duke Realty (DRE)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform Borg Warner (BWA)- KeyBanc Capital Mkts Buy » Hold General Motors (GM)- Citigroup Buy » Hold Anheuser-Busch (BUD)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold BRT Realty Trust (BRT)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
