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AmeriCredit (ACF) Deal: ABS Market Thawing

It would seem that credit markets, frozen at the beginning of the year are beginning to shake loose..

AmeriCredit, who provides financing to car buyers with poor credit, raised $750 million in the year’s first public sale of bonds backed by subprime auto loans.

The offering was increased from the $500 million initially planned. The simple explanation is that investors are once again looking for asset backed securities. The AAA portion of the sale with a three-year maturity priced to yield 365 basis points over benchmark rates. The bonds were being marketed at a spread of 380 basis points over the benchmark. The weighted average coupon on the Notes to be paid by AmeriCredit is 6.0%. It is the first sale since September for ACF.

The co-managers are Barclays Capital (BCS), Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Wachovia (WB). Net proceeds from securitization transactions will be used to provide long-term financing of receivables.

This is good news for ACF investors like Leucadia (LUK) and still more evidence that auto related investing ought to hold up in the current environment and excel as we come through it.

Bloomberg reports “Demand is also returning for bonds backed by car loans made to borrowers with good credit. The finance arms of Ford Motor Co., GMAC LLC and Chrysler LLC have raised a total of $9.7 billion since April 15 by selling asset-backed debt, including a $5 billion sale by Ford, its biggest since 2002.”

Time to get serious about the sector.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WB, None

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More Thoughts on Borders (BGP) Sale

Some more thoughts Barnes & Nobel (BKS) and borders (BGP)

The timing of this is odd as Barnes and Nobel is scheduled to release results and have its earnings call tomorrow. Borders has it’s annual meeting tomorrow also. Next Monday and Tuesday feature borders Q1 results and earnings call respectively.

It is very “coincidental” this news leaked out after months of silence just before both companies are schedules to speak to the public and media…no?

Another thing that Borders does have is 1.75 million (and growing) members in its “Borders Rewards” program. These are the “book people” and are the highest valued customers due to their purchasing frequency.

Back in March the following exchange took place during the earnings call:

Bill Armstrong – C.L. King & Associates: “Got it. Okay, obviously one of your biggest competitors, Borders, had a big announcement this morning. Would there be any interest on Barnes & Noble’s part in potentially acquiring Borders?”

Mitchell S. Klipper: “We haven’t been approached by Borders’ investment bankers and if we are, we’re certainly take a good look at the company and put it under review.”

Here is a video with another take on it:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, None

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Dow Chemical (DOW) CEO on Energy (video)

Andrew Liveris spoke on CNBC today about Dow (DOW), energy and jobs..

Liveris has been saying the same thing for three years. Based on the fact we have $133 oil (it was $35 when he started saying this) he bears listening too. That being said, as an investor having 66% of the business outside of the US is a good thing.

Now, let’s look at the announcement of the Kuwait deal from December of last year. The reasoning for it was same thing that Liveris has been saying all along:

What is important to note is that 50% of the business is being sold is being done so at $9.5 billion, the commodity business being only 25% of profits. If we do the math, the deal values the whole of Dow at roughly $76 billion. The company currently has a market cap of $38 billion.

Now, the petroleum based business are the ones being sold to Kuwait. That means that the per dollar barrel of oil becomes less important down the road because Dow will access it at the source. But, the worldwide prices of the end products that are based on that still matter as Dow will profit from their price appreciation with oil.

Essentially it looks like the input price of oil will matter less and the prices DOW will be able to get for the products it makes based on the per barrel price will remain elevated.

Enough said???

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow

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FOMC Minutes Released: No More Rate Cuts

Not a big surprise to readers (I hope).

This is the only paragraph that really matters:

“The Committee agreed that that the statement to be released after the meeting should take note of the substantial policy easing to date and the ongoing measures to foster market liquidity. In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation. Accordingly, the Committee felt that it was no longer appropriate for the statement to emphasize the downside risks to growth. Given these circumstances, future policy adjustments would depend on the extent to which economic and financial developments affected the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In that regard, several members noted that it was unlikely to be appropriate to ease policy in response to information suggesting that the economy was slowing further or even contracting slightly in the near term, unless economic and financial developments indicated a significant weakening of the economic outlook.”

Full Transcript

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AutoZone Earnings Call Notes

The earnings call notes was enlightening as to the quality of this business and management.

Notables:
* Four consecutive quarter of positive sales growth in commercial business and that growth is acceleration through the year.
* Operating margin of 18%, up approximately two basis points from last year’s quarter
* Return on invested capital for the trailing four quarters of 23.3%.
* Did not see a material shift in sales mix to lower priced point merchandise.
* Have not seen any material change in the competitive landscape.

CEO, Bill Rhodes
“Return on invested capital is a key measure of our success. We have and will continue to make investments that we believe will generate returns that significantly exceed our cost of capital. We will not deviate from our efforts to optimize shareholder value over the long-term. We continue to be physically prudent with our investments while optimizing our earnings per share.”

Regarding gas prices:
“Unfortunately we cannot control the prices of gas at the pump. However with more vehicles on the road than ever before, our ability to grow sales remains strong over the long-term and we believe consumers will ultimately adjust their spending habits to the higher prices. We will continue to develop marketing programs that support our customers’ needs during these high-price times.”

What drives the company’s business:
“Let me again reiterate the two statistics we’ve always felt had the closest correlation to our market growth; miles driven and the number of seven-year-old and older vehicles on the road. While miles driven had been challenged recently thereby causing a challenge to our overall business, there has been a positive impact from more registered vehicles seven years old and older on the road; quite frankly more than in our country’s history.”

The reason for Eddie Lampert’s investing in the company is becoming more clear every time I look at it.

Full call here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Biglari Adds to Steak n’ Shake (SNS) Holdings

Sardar Biglari through his Western Investments funds added 35,000 shares of Steak n’ Shake (SNS) at prices between $6.85 and $6.94 a share.

This brings is ownership to 2.443 million shares or 8.6% of the total outstanding.

For more on Sardar and Steak n’ Shake, see here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Biglari Adds to Steak n' Shake (SNS) Holdings

Sardar Biglari through his Western Investments funds added 35,000 shares of Steak n’ Shake (SNS) at prices between $6.85 and $6.94 a share.

This brings is ownership to 2.443 million shares or 8.6% of the total outstanding.

For more on Sardar and Steak n’ Shake, see here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Barnes & Nobel (BKS) looking at Borders (BGP)

The biggest part of this news is not the possible Barnes and Nobel (BKS) bid for Borders (BGP)

Here is the big news, according to the Wall St. Journal,30 people, including strategic buyers and private equity firms, have either signed confidentiality agreements or are in talks to sign agreements so they can look at a bid for Borders.

There are some anti-trust issue with a possible BKS bid. Amazon (AMZN) is the #2 book seller with 15% of the market and a BKS, BGP combo would then have over 30%. Based on recent results (Whole Foods (WFMI) & Wild Oats, XM (XMSR) & Sirius (SIRI)) however, even if the government did object, chances are the merger would still eventually go through anyway.

Just yesterday, Carlye’s David Rubenstein said that, far from being dead, private equity deals in the $2 billion to $4 billion range will take precedence. “We are casting our net wider for $2 billion to $4 billion deals that will require little or no debt” said Rubenstein. He continued, “I think that the bottom has been hit in terms of private-equity investing activity and you’re now beginning to see the upward swing”.

Borders has a current market cap of $350 million and $580 million in debt. A deal that gave shareholders $12 a share would come in at $1.3 billion and change. At this price, the number of buyers who could purchase the chain is plentiful and perhaps the reason for the wide interest.

30 potential buyers will make for a very interesting and competative bidding process and is very good for shareholders.

We bought shares at $5 and change looking for this very possibility, not as a long term permanent holding. While sure this would eventually happen, I thought it was far more likely towards the fall as the Ackman financing and dilution deadline approached.

Either way, gonna be a fun summer with this one.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, none

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Wednesday’s Links

Hurricanes, RI Lead Trial, NFL CBA, Inflation

– Priceless, so now because of “Global Warming”, we ought to expect “fewer hurricanes”. But isn’t that the exact opposite of what they said JUST LAST YEAR!!!! This is the very reason the whole things is just a guess…

– Maybe they are skeptical because Silverstein did not rule based on law?

– You know, Dallas’s Jerry Jones and New England’s Bob Kraft laughed at Buffalo’s Ralph Wilson and Cincinnati’s Mike Brown for voting against the CBA when they forced fed the horrible deal to the owners. It must suck to have to admit to two holdouts were the only ones who had a clue….

Falling

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Wednesday's Links

Hurricanes, RI Lead Trial, NFL CBA, Inflation

– Priceless, so now because of “Global Warming”, we ought to expect “fewer hurricanes”. But isn’t that the exact opposite of what they said JUST LAST YEAR!!!! This is the very reason the whole things is just a guess…

– Maybe they are skeptical because Silverstein did not rule based on law?

– You know, Dallas’s Jerry Jones and New England’s Bob Kraft laughed at Buffalo’s Ralph Wilson and Cincinnati’s Mike Brown for voting against the CBA when they forced fed the horrible deal to the owners. It must suck to have to admit to two holdouts were the only ones who had a clue….

Falling

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Consolidated Water (CWCO)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Sell » Neutral
Raven Industries (RAVN)- Dougherty & Company Neutral » Buy
ConocoPhillips (COP)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Intersil (ISIL)- Longbow Sell » Neutral
Imperial Oil (IMO)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Rudolph Tech (RTEC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Exelon (EXC)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Hertz Global (HTZ)- Soleil Hold » Buy
CNOOC Ltd (CEO)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Progressive (PGR)- Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
Charming Shoppes (CHRS)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
Precision Drilling (PDS)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
FirstEnergy (FE)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Exelon (EXC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Reliant Energy (RRI)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Public Service (PEG)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Netflix (NFLX)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight

Downgrades
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)- Ardour Capital Hold » Reduce
Hess (HES)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Universal Technical Institute (UTI)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
Career Education (CECO)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
Corinthian Colleges (COCO)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
ITT Educational (ESI)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
EMC Corp (EMC)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
NRG Energy (NRG)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Acergy (ACGY)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Casey’s General (CASY)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Woodward Governor (WGOV)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral

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Wednesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Consolidated Water (CWCO)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Sell » Neutral
Raven Industries (RAVN)- Dougherty & Company Neutral » Buy
ConocoPhillips (COP)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Intersil (ISIL)- Longbow Sell » Neutral
Imperial Oil (IMO)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Rudolph Tech (RTEC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Exelon (EXC)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Hertz Global (HTZ)- Soleil Hold » Buy
CNOOC Ltd (CEO)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Progressive (PGR)- Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
Charming Shoppes (CHRS)- Susquehanna Financial Neutral » Positive
Precision Drilling (PDS)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
FirstEnergy (FE)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Exelon (EXC)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Reliant Energy (RRI)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Public Service (PEG)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Netflix (NFLX)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Overweight

Downgrades
Pacific Ethanol (PEIX)- Ardour Capital Hold » Reduce
Hess (HES)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Universal Technical Institute (UTI)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
Career Education (CECO)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Sell
Corinthian Colleges (COCO)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
ITT Educational (ESI)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
EMC Corp (EMC)- Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
NRG Energy (NRG)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Acergy (ACGY)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Casey’s General (CASY)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Woodward Governor (WGOV)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral

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Lampert Still Buying AutoNation (AN)

Eddie Lampert increase his stake in auto retailer AutoNation (AN) to 69.1 million shares or 38.7% of the total outstanding this week.

For more on this read this article:


Filing

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Leucadia (LUK) Ups Jefferies (JEF) Stake

Leucadia (LUK), in a just released SEC filing disclosed it purchased an additional 1.15 million shares of investment bank Jefferies (JEF) in two transactions. There was a 400K block at $17.77 on 5/16 and a 750K share block on 5/19 at $18.27

The purchases bring Leucadia’s stake to 45,492,100 shares.

Filing

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday


Wednesday’s Picks
Guy Adami thinks Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) $43.91 is a buy.

Pete Najarian recommends getting long Excel Maritime (EXM) $55.03

Joe Terranova suggests shorting Hess (HES) $133.8

Jeff Macke likes getting long the SPDR Trust (SPY) $141.89 with a $139 stop.

Tuesday’s Results
Guy Adami suggests getting long Boeing (BA) $87.07 Close $85.14 LOSS

Pete Najarian thinks DuPont (DD) $49.5 is a buy.Close $48.95 LOSS

Jeff Macke recommends shorting Electronic Arts (ERTS) $48.43 Close $49.05 GAIN

Karen Finerman likes shorting the British pound with the CurrencyShares British Pound Ster. Trust (FXB) $195.31 Close $197.25 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 40-31-1
Tim Seymore= 17-14
Guy Adami= 40-35
Pete Najarian= 38-34
Karen Finerman= 35-30-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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