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Mozillo's Email Furor & Mr. Bailey's Idiocy

I have a hard time feeling sorry for Mr. Bailey…..

First things first. Angelo, disable the “reply” button in outlook. Less problems going forward.

“This is unbelievable,” Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide’s (CFC) CEO wrote Tuesday. “Most of these letters now have the same wording. Obviously they are being counseled by some other person or by the Internet. Disgusting.”

Mozilo apparently clicked “reply” instead of “forward,” sending his comments back to Bailey rather than forwarding them to the intended recipient. Baily then posted the email on online forums.

Daniel Bailey Jr., asked the company to modify his adjustable-rate mortgage. He said he didn’t fully understand the terms, was wrongly told he could refinance after a year and was on the verge of losing his home of 16 years because of unaffordable payments. His e-mail went to 20 Countrywide addresses and he used language from a form letter from a website, which offers advice to borrowers in trouble.

Now, had Mr. Baily been laid off from a job, or disabled he would garner sympathy. But, let’s be honest. He decided to refi the house and cash out equity to the max and repay is as cheaply as possible. Greed. The market turned against him and now he is holding the bag. Oh well….

He admits he signed documents “without understanding them”. Why? If he is a big enough boy to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars he ought to be big enough to either understand what he is signing or suffer the consequences of his actions.

While a terrible PR move given the current political environment and the pending Bank of America (BAC) merger, Mozillo is right, being stupid is no reason to be given a break…..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Barnes and Nobel Reports

Results in line. The real news will be made on the conference call in a few minutes.

Barnes and Nobel (BKS) reported sales for Q1 increased 1.1% to $1.2 billion. Barnes & Noble store sales increased 1.1% to $1.0 billion, with comparable store sales decreasing 1.5% for the quarter, marginally below guidance for slightly negative comparable store sales. Barnes & Noble.com comparable sales were $99.6 million for the quarter, a 7.2% increase compared to the prior year period.

In Q1,the company acquired 6.5 million shares under its share repurchase program at an average price of $30.57 per share or $199.7 million in total.

Although the company lowered its sales forecast, it continues to expect full-year EPS to be in a range of $1.70 to $1.90 based on a reduced fully diluted share count of 58.5 million shares as a result of the share repurchase activity noted above. Second quarter earnings per share are expected to be in a range of $0.08 to $0.13.

I will comment on the earnings call later

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Dow Chemical EPS Outlook

Last summer Andrew Liveris predicted Dow Chemical (DOW) would earn “in excess” of $2 per share at the next industry trough. Last fall that was increased to $3 a share and in this winter, “north of $3 per share”. Yesterday Liveris supplied new numbers.

$3.50 per share is the latest number. It should be noted that only takes into account 3% volume growth that, without the commodity business that will be sold, looks painfully conservative. Consider Dow Agro, which will constitute almost 50% of earnings after the commodity sale is growing at a double digit rate, 3% looks like a cake-walk. The specialty business, the other main driver after the commodity sale last year grew 8%.

If we just take a slight discount to current growth rates then we are looking at $4 a share rather easily.

Looking down the road a bit, 2005 was the last industry “peak”. 2015 will be the next. Liveris yesterday said Dow ought to earn in excess of $10 a share at that time. If we take a typical 12 times earnings multiple (for chemical companies) we arrive at $120 a share for Dow stock. One also has to account for the current 4.5% yield that is growing.

Liveris said Dow will about $57 billion in cash between 2008 and 2015 and approximately 70% of this will be generated through cash from operation. Liveris intends to use roughly $29 billion of it toward acquisitions and share buybacks. Just under 25% of it will go into dividends. That gives us $14.25 billion for dividends $15 a share based on Dow’s 930 million shares currently outstanding. One also has to take into account the massive share repurchase expected once the Kuwait deal closes. Liveris has consistently alluded to its likelihood. Even if just $10 billion of the $29 is used for that, it would take just under 1/3 of Dow’s stock off the market.

Doing so would cause the per share dividend calculation to increase $5 per share in the example above.

The rest will be used for capital spending.

View presentation here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW

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Thursday’s Links

College, StockMasters, Brands, Icahn

– We value the exchange of ideas (as long as they are ideas we agree with)

– Another nailed pick

Yes it can

– Would have been great to listen to this

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Thursday's Links

College, StockMasters, Brands, Icahn

– We value the exchange of ideas (as long as they are ideas we agree with)

– Another nailed pick

Yes it can

– Would have been great to listen to this

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Baker Hughes (BHI)- CapitalOne southcoast Neutral » Add
Tesco (TESO)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Strong Buy
Key Energy (KEG)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Strong Buy
Central Garden (CENT)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Wolseley (WOSLY)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Arris (ARRS)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
China Sunergy (CSUN)- Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
National Fuel Gas (NFG)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Micron (MU)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Aracruz Celulose (ARA)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Underperform
Pride Intl (PDE)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
AMR Corp (AMR)- Soleil Hold » Sell
Continental Air (CAL)- Soleil Buy » Hold
UAL Corp. (UAUA)- Soleil Buy » Sell
First Solar (FSLR)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Smart Modular Tech (SMOD)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Continental Resources (CLR)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Smart Modular Tech (SMOD)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Intuit (INTU)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Nucor (NUE)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Enersys (ENS)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Sappi Limited (SPP)- UBS Buy » Neutral

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Thursday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Baker Hughes (BHI)- CapitalOne southcoast Neutral » Add
Tesco (TESO)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Strong Buy
Key Energy (KEG)- CapitalOne southcoast Add » Strong Buy
Central Garden (CENT)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Wolseley (WOSLY)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Arris (ARRS)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
China Sunergy (CSUN)- Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
National Fuel Gas (NFG)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Micron (MU)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

Downgrades
Aracruz Celulose (ARA)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Underperform
Pride Intl (PDE)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
AMR Corp (AMR)- Soleil Hold » Sell
Continental Air (CAL)- Soleil Buy » Hold
UAL Corp. (UAUA)- Soleil Buy » Sell
First Solar (FSLR)- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Underperform
Smart Modular Tech (SMOD)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Continental Resources (CLR)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Smart Modular Tech (SMOD)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Intuit (INTU)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Nucor (NUE)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Enersys (ENS)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Sappi Limited (SPP)- UBS Buy » Neutral

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"Fast Money" for Thursday


Thursday’s Picks
Jeff Macke recommends the United States Oil Fund (USO) $108.31 with a $105 stop.

Guy Adami suggests AMR Corp. (AMR) 6.22 for a trade.

Karen Finerman prefers getting long the Oil Service HLDRS (OIH) $213.88 along with USO puts.

Pete Najarian thinks Disney (DIS) $33.66 is a buy.

Wednesday’s Results
Guy Adami thinks Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) $43.91 is a buy.Close $43.66 LOSS

Pete Najarian recommends getting long Excel Maritime (EXM) $55.03 Close $53.10 LOSS

Joe Terranova suggests shorting Hess (HES) $133.8 Close $103.78 LOSS

Jeff Macke likes getting long the SPDR Trust (SPY) $141.89 with a $139 stop. Close $139.79 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 40-32-1
Tim Seymore= 17-14
Guy Adami= 40-36
Pete Najarian= 38-35
Karen Finerman= 35-30-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-3

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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AmeriCredit (ACF) Deal: ABS Market Thawing

It would seem that credit markets, frozen at the beginning of the year are beginning to shake loose..

AmeriCredit, who provides financing to car buyers with poor credit, raised $750 million in the year’s first public sale of bonds backed by subprime auto loans.

The offering was increased from the $500 million initially planned. The simple explanation is that investors are once again looking for asset backed securities. The AAA portion of the sale with a three-year maturity priced to yield 365 basis points over benchmark rates. The bonds were being marketed at a spread of 380 basis points over the benchmark. The weighted average coupon on the Notes to be paid by AmeriCredit is 6.0%. It is the first sale since September for ACF.

The co-managers are Barclays Capital (BCS), Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Wachovia (WB). Net proceeds from securitization transactions will be used to provide long-term financing of receivables.

This is good news for ACF investors like Leucadia (LUK) and still more evidence that auto related investing ought to hold up in the current environment and excel as we come through it.

Bloomberg reports “Demand is also returning for bonds backed by car loans made to borrowers with good credit. The finance arms of Ford Motor Co., GMAC LLC and Chrysler LLC have raised a total of $9.7 billion since April 15 by selling asset-backed debt, including a $5 billion sale by Ford, its biggest since 2002.”

Time to get serious about the sector.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WB, None

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More Thoughts on Borders (BGP) Sale

Some more thoughts Barnes & Nobel (BKS) and borders (BGP)

The timing of this is odd as Barnes and Nobel is scheduled to release results and have its earnings call tomorrow. Borders has it’s annual meeting tomorrow also. Next Monday and Tuesday feature borders Q1 results and earnings call respectively.

It is very “coincidental” this news leaked out after months of silence just before both companies are schedules to speak to the public and media…no?

Another thing that Borders does have is 1.75 million (and growing) members in its “Borders Rewards” program. These are the “book people” and are the highest valued customers due to their purchasing frequency.

Back in March the following exchange took place during the earnings call:

Bill Armstrong – C.L. King & Associates: “Got it. Okay, obviously one of your biggest competitors, Borders, had a big announcement this morning. Would there be any interest on Barnes & Noble’s part in potentially acquiring Borders?”

Mitchell S. Klipper: “We haven’t been approached by Borders’ investment bankers and if we are, we’re certainly take a good look at the company and put it under review.”

Here is a video with another take on it:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, None

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Dow Chemical (DOW) CEO on Energy (video)

Andrew Liveris spoke on CNBC today about Dow (DOW), energy and jobs..

Liveris has been saying the same thing for three years. Based on the fact we have $133 oil (it was $35 when he started saying this) he bears listening too. That being said, as an investor having 66% of the business outside of the US is a good thing.

Now, let’s look at the announcement of the Kuwait deal from December of last year. The reasoning for it was same thing that Liveris has been saying all along:

What is important to note is that 50% of the business is being sold is being done so at $9.5 billion, the commodity business being only 25% of profits. If we do the math, the deal values the whole of Dow at roughly $76 billion. The company currently has a market cap of $38 billion.

Now, the petroleum based business are the ones being sold to Kuwait. That means that the per dollar barrel of oil becomes less important down the road because Dow will access it at the source. But, the worldwide prices of the end products that are based on that still matter as Dow will profit from their price appreciation with oil.

Essentially it looks like the input price of oil will matter less and the prices DOW will be able to get for the products it makes based on the per barrel price will remain elevated.

Enough said???

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow

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FOMC Minutes Released: No More Rate Cuts

Not a big surprise to readers (I hope).

This is the only paragraph that really matters:

“The Committee agreed that that the statement to be released after the meeting should take note of the substantial policy easing to date and the ongoing measures to foster market liquidity. In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation. Accordingly, the Committee felt that it was no longer appropriate for the statement to emphasize the downside risks to growth. Given these circumstances, future policy adjustments would depend on the extent to which economic and financial developments affected the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In that regard, several members noted that it was unlikely to be appropriate to ease policy in response to information suggesting that the economy was slowing further or even contracting slightly in the near term, unless economic and financial developments indicated a significant weakening of the economic outlook.”

Full Transcript

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AutoZone Earnings Call Notes

The earnings call notes was enlightening as to the quality of this business and management.

Notables:
* Four consecutive quarter of positive sales growth in commercial business and that growth is acceleration through the year.
* Operating margin of 18%, up approximately two basis points from last year’s quarter
* Return on invested capital for the trailing four quarters of 23.3%.
* Did not see a material shift in sales mix to lower priced point merchandise.
* Have not seen any material change in the competitive landscape.

CEO, Bill Rhodes
“Return on invested capital is a key measure of our success. We have and will continue to make investments that we believe will generate returns that significantly exceed our cost of capital. We will not deviate from our efforts to optimize shareholder value over the long-term. We continue to be physically prudent with our investments while optimizing our earnings per share.”

Regarding gas prices:
“Unfortunately we cannot control the prices of gas at the pump. However with more vehicles on the road than ever before, our ability to grow sales remains strong over the long-term and we believe consumers will ultimately adjust their spending habits to the higher prices. We will continue to develop marketing programs that support our customers’ needs during these high-price times.”

What drives the company’s business:
“Let me again reiterate the two statistics we’ve always felt had the closest correlation to our market growth; miles driven and the number of seven-year-old and older vehicles on the road. While miles driven had been challenged recently thereby causing a challenge to our overall business, there has been a positive impact from more registered vehicles seven years old and older on the road; quite frankly more than in our country’s history.”

The reason for Eddie Lampert’s investing in the company is becoming more clear every time I look at it.

Full call here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Biglari Adds to Steak n’ Shake (SNS) Holdings

Sardar Biglari through his Western Investments funds added 35,000 shares of Steak n’ Shake (SNS) at prices between $6.85 and $6.94 a share.

This brings is ownership to 2.443 million shares or 8.6% of the total outstanding.

For more on Sardar and Steak n’ Shake, see here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Biglari Adds to Steak n' Shake (SNS) Holdings

Sardar Biglari through his Western Investments funds added 35,000 shares of Steak n’ Shake (SNS) at prices between $6.85 and $6.94 a share.

This brings is ownership to 2.443 million shares or 8.6% of the total outstanding.

For more on Sardar and Steak n’ Shake, see here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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