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Borders' Semantics

I always laugh at things like this.

Borders (BGP) CEO George Jones said yesterday that the company has had “no substantive talks” regarding a sale of the company. Rumor were swirling that Barnes and Noble (BKS) was preparing and offer.

Here is the thing. Jones clearly has had “talks”, just not “substantive” ones. Now, what has to happen when one talks about selling the company at what point the talks go from “just talking” to “substantive”.

Seems to me that the answer to that depends on the person qualifying the talks. Jones has multiple suitors and a company that seems to be on to something with its new concept. That being said, the longer he can drag the process out, allowing for the company’s results to improve, he dramatically increase the price he can get for himself and his shareholders.

For Jones to shorten the process at this point would probably leave money on the table.

Borders is in a sweet spot for both private equity and strategic buyers. A good brand with valuable assets and an appealing price.

This will happen….eventually

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, none

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Friday’s Links

Kids and Politics, NFL, Blogs, CSX

– Why do we do this every election? Kids just do not care about politics. Why do we always talk about “getting out the vote” or “rock the vote” and every year the same percentage of them actually do it. Did anyone actually think YouTube was a source of political news…..really?

– If only Jones, Kraft and Snyder had listened to Ralph Wilson………..

– Well, this is good news..

– Whenever I see the CEO of CSX, something just does not sit right…

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Friday's Links

Kids and Politics, NFL, Blogs, CSX

– Why do we do this every election? Kids just do not care about politics. Why do we always talk about “getting out the vote” or “rock the vote” and every year the same percentage of them actually do it. Did anyone actually think YouTube was a source of political news…..really?

– If only Jones, Kraft and Snyder had listened to Ralph Wilson………..

– Well, this is good news..

– Whenever I see the CEO of CSX, something just does not sit right…

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Methanex (MEOH)- Canaccord Adams Sell » Hold
UBS AG (UBS)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
ArthroCare (ARTC)- Needham Buy » Strong Buy
DivX (DIVX)- Barrington Research Mkt Perform » Outperform
FLIR Systems (FLIR)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
America Movil SA (AMX)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
EW Scripps (SSP)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Overweight
VNUS Medical Tech (VNUS)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Ross Stores (ROST)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Cost Plus (CPWM)- JMP Securities Mkt Underperform » Mkt Perform
Salesforce.com (CRM)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Level 3 (LVLT)- Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
First Marblehead (FMD)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Network Appliance (NTAP)- Caris & Company Buy » Average
Advanced Analogic Tech (AATI)- Needham Strong Buy » Buy
FMC Tech (FTI)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Corn Products (CPO)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Ashland (ASH)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Goldman Sachs (GS)- Ladenburg Thalmann Neutral » Sell
CDC Corp (CHINA)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
American Electric (AEP)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Barclays PLC (BCS)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Merrill Lynch (MER)- Ladenburg Thalmann Neutral » Sell
Lehman Brothers (LEH)- Ladenburg Thalmann Neutral » Sell

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Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Methanex (MEOH)- Canaccord Adams Sell » Hold
UBS AG (UBS)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
ArthroCare (ARTC)- Needham Buy » Strong Buy
DivX (DIVX)- Barrington Research Mkt Perform » Outperform
FLIR Systems (FLIR)- Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
America Movil SA (AMX)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
EW Scripps (SSP)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Overweight
VNUS Medical Tech (VNUS)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Ross Stores (ROST)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Cost Plus (CPWM)- JMP Securities Mkt Underperform » Mkt Perform
Salesforce.com (CRM)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Level 3 (LVLT)- Wachovia Underperform » Mkt Perform
First Marblehead (FMD)- Friedman Billings Underperform » Mkt Perform

Downgrades
Network Appliance (NTAP)- Caris & Company Buy » Average
Advanced Analogic Tech (AATI)- Needham Strong Buy » Buy
FMC Tech (FTI)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Corn Products (CPO)- BB&T Capital Mkts Buy » Hold
Ashland (ASH)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Goldman Sachs (GS)- Ladenburg Thalmann Neutral » Sell
CDC Corp (CHINA)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
American Electric (AEP)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Barclays PLC (BCS)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-Weight
Merrill Lynch (MER)- Ladenburg Thalmann Neutral » Sell
Lehman Brothers (LEH)- Ladenburg Thalmann Neutral » Sell

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Picks
None

Thursday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommends the United States Oil Fund (USO) $108.31 with a $105 stop. Close $105.63 LOSS

Guy Adami suggests AMR Corp. (AMR) 6.22 for a trade. Close $6.56 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers getting long the Oil Service HLDRS (OIH) $213.88 Close $211.88 LOSS along with USO puts. GAIN

Pete Najarian thinks Disney (DIS) $33.66 is a buy. Close $33.61 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 40-33-1
Tim Seymore= 17-14
Guy Adami= 41-36
Pete Najarian= 38-36
Karen Finerman= 36-31-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-3

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Leucadia (LUK) Files Amended 13-D in Jefferies (JEF)

Leucadia (LUK) filed a 13-d moments ago in regards to Jefferes (JEF)

From the filing
Item 5 of the Schedule 13D is hereby amended and restated in its entirety, with effect from the date of this Amendment, as follows:

As of the close of business on the date of this Statement, the Reporting Persons may be deemed to beneficially own collectively an aggregate of 47,142,100 shares of Common Stock, representing approximately 29.11% of the shares of Common Stock outstanding. All percentages in this Item 5 are based on 161,951,428 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of the date of this Amendment.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

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It May Be Time To Sell Oil

Last weekend I listened to the barber and cronies talk about oil for 20 minutes. Everyone is looking for a way to invest in it. You know what that means, time to sell….

Oil is up 38% this year. What has changed? Boone Pickens says that there are 85 mbpd and demand is 87 mbpd, thus prices must rise. But, 38% in 5 months? Really? It should be noted Boone was short oil in Jan. so even he errs. Even at those numbers, worldwide oil demand rose only 1% last year, yet USO is up over 100%….

On January 1 in my “8 for 2008” predictions I said oil “would sit at $135 by year end“. I still believe it and think that things are a bit too frothy. We are up 137% in our USO investment and each day I am thinking about cashing out. Why?

Demand:
Demand is set to fall. News of American Airlines (AMR) cutting flights is only the beginning. Look for more airlines to follow suit. SUV’s are sitting on dealership lots and that means American’s are buying more fuel efficient cars. This weekend will mark the first time since 2001 that travel on the highways has decreases for the holiday. $4 a gallon gas will kill demand. The US economy looks to be slowing and that slowing may last for a while, again dampening demand.

Record numbers of people in the Northeast are looking at switching from oil to heating with natural gas and even electrical or a combination of the two. Looking at almost $4 a gallon to heat a home just is not acceptable. You are talking about $4,000 to $6,000 winter heating bills.

The dollar, while not a dominant factor in the price of oil, still does count. US rate cuts are over (rate increase are likely by the fall) and we may begin to see some cuts in Europe. That means an immediate reversal in the decline of the dollar and more downward pressure on commodity (oil) prices.

Since the US is 25% of the demand for oil, what happens here matters.

China has been hoarding diesel fuel in anticipation of the Olympics this summer. That has caused false demand for the product worldwide, driving up prices. Once that is over, demand will immediately slacken.

This:

When your neighbor is drilling for oil, just as if he was “flipping houses” or “buying tech”, things have run ahead too fast.

Oil may still rise, but, when it begins to fall, it will collapse fast. Just look and the amount of futures speculation in oil. The fall will be vicious….

I am going to take my profits now, wait for the collapse and probably buy back in later…maybe

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long USO (for now), none

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Barnes and Noble (BKS) Earnings Call Notes

Here is what a Borders (BGP) investor cares about in today’s Barnes and Noble (BKS) earnings call call

Steve Riggio CEO: “Good morning. While our sales were less than we expected, it still remains that the book business is a relatively stable one which we’ve said time and again. We believe our comp sales, while slightly negative, held up well compared to most of the retail sector..”

If the book business is “stable”. Then it logically follows that to increase share and earnings, physical growth is necessary. What better way to grow than to eliminate 12% of the market via an acquisition?

Charles Grom – J.P. Morgan: “And then just in terms of the speculation out there about Borders, I was wondering if you guys wanted to go on record and make a comment just to kind of clear the air, I’m sure it’s on everybody’s mind at this point.”

Steve Riggio: “We’ve put together a team of senior management people and financial advisors to study the feasibility of a transaction with Borders. We’ll provide no further comments about any discussions we may or may not have.”

Another regarding “Members:
Steve Riggio: “We don’t think it’s necessary. We think it’s more profitable to build business with a strong member base of highly motivated individuals that pay our annual membership fee and we continue to test and we’re learning quite a bit. Understand we have about seven years of history in this mailing hundreds of millions of emails and coupons of all different types.”

He continued: “So we have tremendously sophisticated analysis about what works, what doesn’t, what drives traffic profitably, what drives traffic unprofitably. So it’s not something that we will completely back away from testing because it is a good thing to do. But we believe that the path forward is to focus on the everyday discount that the card offers and it makes a lot of sense to us, that’s what the numbers are saying”

Remember, Borders has over 1.75 million members in its “Borders Rewards” program. There is tremendous value to this for BKS. Aside from eliminating the only real competitor in the “big box” bookseller, transferring almost 2 million customers to your most fastest growing entity, “membership”, is paramount.

Sales at Barnes & Noble.com were $99.6 million for the quarter, a 7.2% comparable sales increase and gross margins there improved 80 basis points this quarter. I have to believe the average online customer spends more than $45 dollar a year. My guess would be at least twice that but lets just go with that. I also could not find how many BKS online “members” there are, if anyone knows, please let mew know. That being said, if that is all they spend, BKS would double its online presence immediately.

Let’s then for fun add the $25 annual fee and now we have another $43.5 million flowing to BKS.

The whole of Borders right now is only valued at $403 million yet its upcoming site alone must have a value of 30% of that.

Riggio may want to do this mow if for no other reason, a revitalized Borders will add severe headwinds to his business. Based on results from its new concept to date, that is happening…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP, none

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Tilson on Mortgages

Whitney make a good point…..Glad I do not own Washington Mutual (WM) shares (

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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GE May "Spin" Appliances Unit, Not Sell It……

It is apparent that the potential bids GE (GE) has received for its appliance unit are far from what it expected..

With sales of $7.2 billion last year, GE had hoped to get $6 to $8 billion for the unit. The fact they have now decided to consider a spin, an option not originally specified, can only mean conversations with potential buyers have resulted in prices much below that.

In an spin scenario, if it is a tax free exchange like the ones Altria (MO) has done with Kraft (KFT) and Phillip Morris International (PM), GE receives nothing in the exchange. It is shareholders who receive proceeds. They could opt to retain a percentage of the business and profit from its future growth that way if they opted. Perhaps they would spin 50% of it and retain the other half to sell at a later date when the market for it improves. This option may just be a move to pacify shareholders who have been frustrated for the better part of the decade.

No matter what they do, it is clear this is not unfolding as they expected. Immelt is out stumping the “brand” as if to remind potential buyers the value of having GE on an appliance. I am not sure this is in doubt in the appliance world.

The problem is buyers know he has to do something because he has already stuck his neck out and had it swiped at. He is also trying to sell into a very weak market. Add those two together and you have a seller who has a problem.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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VIN Botton…..

Attention All Readers: Please read this post …

I have installed the following button from George for the Value Investing News site.

It is at the bottom of all posts. It allows you easily to send a post to VIN or vote for it from ValuePlays if you like it. If you are a blogger it is easy to install and readers ought to use it for its convenience…

Here is the link for it:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Annello Sets "Asia Times" Straight on Lampert and Sears (SHLD)

Wish I had wrote this one……Great job Jeff

“I read an article called “Sears majesty to hedge-fund dust” at the behest of a reader on the gurufocus message boards, and I have to say it is one of the most uninformed and incomplete articles I’ve ever read. There are so many misguided and shallow statements that it’s hard to know where you’d even start to refute the allegations. Before you read my refutation, please read the article for context. Please read my refutation through before commenting.

I’ll start with a quote from the article, and continue on down from there:

“But as all readers of this site well know, things sure changed in 2007. Many of the hedge fund strategies that paid off like slot machine jackpots in the previous two years, such as huge heavily leveraged bets on subprime mortgage paper, came up lemons last year.”

Leveraged bets on subprime mortgage paper? What on God’s green earth does subprime mortgage paper have to do with ESL Investments? While this reporter basks in the failure of many hedge funds last year that were doing things extremely far removed from what ESL does, I question if he actually looked at any other ESL investments outside of Sears and Citigroup. If he did, then it’s a classic red herring argument fallacy; he is using irrelevant information that doesn’t have anything to do with the argument at hand.”

Read rest of post here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD

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Cullen Sets the Record Straight on Buffett & Derivatives

This is beautiful…….nice job James

“Ever since Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) reported earnings earlier in the month, a number of people have been abuzz about the “losses” generated from marking-to-market some of the derivatives on the books. Barron’s had a Q&A with short hedge fund manager Doug Kass (one of my favorite contrarian voices) where Kass said he was short BRK because of Buffett’s “investment-style drift,” which has led him to take large positions in derivatives instruments – which he famously derided as “financial weapons of mass destruction” in his 2002 letter to shareholders. And while I’m not sure of his positioning, Mish Shedlock echoed similar thoughts, saying that Buffett’s mark-to-market derivatives loss has given him “$1.2 billion less to invest because so far he is underwater on his short…”

I think Kass and Shedlock are taking their bearish act too far – perhaps because they are doing some unconventional style drift of their own and backing off their normally-sharp research. As Buffett notes in the section of his letter dealing with derivatives, the term “covers an extraordinarily wide range of financial contracts” and range from simple puts, calls, and futures to exotic agreements on any number of reference points, such as total return swaps. Actually reading the two-plus pages of Buffett on derivatives, it becomes clear that the concern centers on long-lived or extremely complex contracts that need to be marked-to-model, allowing for fudging profitability. Buffett isn’t talking about the simple derivatives contracts that Buffett has been increasing Berkshire’s involvement in – namely equity index puts and credit default swaps. I don’t have any explanation why so many people get this wrong, other than to assume they didn’t actually read the relevant passage.”

Read the remainder of the article here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Mozillo’s Email Furor & Mr. Bailey’s Idiocy

I have a hard time feeling sorry for Mr. Bailey…..

First things first. Angelo, disable the “reply” button in outlook. Less problems going forward.

“This is unbelievable,” Angelo Mozilo, Countrywide’s (CFC) CEO wrote Tuesday. “Most of these letters now have the same wording. Obviously they are being counseled by some other person or by the Internet. Disgusting.”

Mozilo apparently clicked “reply” instead of “forward,” sending his comments back to Bailey rather than forwarding them to the intended recipient. Baily then posted the email on online forums.

Daniel Bailey Jr., asked the company to modify his adjustable-rate mortgage. He said he didn’t fully understand the terms, was wrongly told he could refinance after a year and was on the verge of losing his home of 16 years because of unaffordable payments. His e-mail went to 20 Countrywide addresses and he used language from a form letter from a website, which offers advice to borrowers in trouble.

Now, had Mr. Baily been laid off from a job, or disabled he would garner sympathy. But, let’s be honest. He decided to refi the house and cash out equity to the max and repay is as cheaply as possible. Greed. The market turned against him and now he is holding the bag. Oh well….

He admits he signed documents “without understanding them”. Why? If he is a big enough boy to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars he ought to be big enough to either understand what he is signing or suffer the consequences of his actions.

While a terrible PR move given the current political environment and the pending Bank of America (BAC) merger, Mozillo is right, being stupid is no reason to be given a break…..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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