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Tueday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Nutrisystem NTRI Boenning & Scattergood Market Perform » Market Outperform
MGI Pharma MOGN Susquehanna Financial Negative » Neutral
Cascade CAE Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
RSC Holdings RRR UBS Neutral » Buy
Nymagic NYM Fox Pitt In Line » Outperform
Dyncorp Intl DCP Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
Gemstar-TV Guide GMST Morgan Joseph Hold » Buy
Perficient PRFT Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Cornell Corr CRN Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
Bankrate RATE Citigroup Hold » Buy
Dyncorp Intl DCP Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
ITT Educational ESI Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Air France KLM AKH UBS Neutral » Buy
Ryanair Hldgs RYAAY UBS Neutral » Buy
Terex TEX UBS Neutral » Buy
Beckman Coulter BEC Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Circuit City CC Soleil Hold » Buy

DOWNGRADES
Rohm and Haas ROH KeyBanc Capital Mkts Aggressive Buy » Buy $68
Hemispherx Biopharma HEB Boenning & Scattergood Market Outperform » Market Perform
Gemstar-TV Guide GMST Janco Partners Buy » Mkt Perform $7.10 » $6.35
STEC Inc STEC B. Riley & Co Buy » Neutral $9.50
Amer Mort Accept AMC RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Gemstar-TV Guide GMST Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Learning Tree LTRE Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Veolia Environnement VE Brean Murray Buy » Hold
SGX Pharma SGXP JMP Securities Mkt Outperform » Mkt Perform
Emerson EMR Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Dominion D Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Red Hat RHT Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
StatoilHydro STO Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Telkom SA TKG Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Amgen AMGN Bernstein Outperform » Mkt Perform
Forward Air FWRD Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
Portugal Telecom PT Credit Suisse Outperform » Underperform
Palm PALM UBS Neutral » Sell

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"Fast Money" for Tuesday


Tuesday’s Picks

Pete Najarain would buy EMC (EMC). Open $19.52

Karen Finerman said she “believes in” Saks (SKS). Open $21.06

Guy Adami reiterated his buy on U.S. Bancorp (USB). Open $33.58

THQ (THQI) is a buy to Jeff Macke.Open $27.37

Monday’s Results
Guy Adami recommends Microsoft (MSFT), which he calls Mr. Softee. Open $34.53 Close $34.76 GAIN

Pete Najarian says Target (TGT) is a buy.Open $55.51 Close $55.60 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers Children’s Place (PLCE). Open $29.95 Close $30.11 GAIN

Guy Adami= 52-41 = 57%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 56-36 = 63%
Pete Najarian= 41-38 = 53%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 34-26 = 56%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Monday’s 52 Week Lows


TLF Tandy Leather Factory Inc 3.27
TIN Temple-Inland Inc 36.48
TGAL Tegal Corp 4.13
SPAR Spartan Motors Inc 7.95
SOLD Housevalues Inc 3.00
FNBN FNB Corp 12.01
FFBH First Federal Bancsha … 14.50
FDO Family Dollar Stores, Inc 20.00

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The Reason Lampert wants Restoration?

Perhaps this little nugget is the reason for Sears Holdings (SHLD) interest in Restoration (RSTO).

Let’s ignore the store traffic and start with the mail order division (think Lands End)..

Third quarter net revenues increased $16.6 million compared to the year ago period, primarily driven by growth in the Company’s Direct-to-Customer segment. Direct-to-Customer revenues were $97.2 million and accounted for 56% of total revenues, up from 36% of total revenues in the third quarter of last year. The increase reflects growth in catalog and page circulation, and a continuing shift in revenues from the Stores segment to the Direct-to-Customer segment resulting from management’s multi-channel merchandising and marketing strategies and operational changes implemented in the second quarter of 2007. Revenues in the Stores segment were $76.5 million in the third quarter of 2007.

So, Lampert is offering about $262 million for a company with more than $150 million in owned inventory, $1.7 million in cash, $8.5 million in receivables and a mail order division with profits of about $32 million a year that grew 71% over last year. If we take those numbers alone, Lampert will receive $192 million back for his purchase price almost immediately.

By merging Restorations back end operations with Land’s End, profitability at the segment will jump. One also has to consider the added benefits to both catalogues by cross selling merchandise in them. Perhaps a combined Land’s End / Restoration issue?

Of Monday’s results, Gary Friedman, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, “Weakening consumer spending and traffic levels continued to affect our business in the third quarter, particularly higher ticket durable categories. Revenue did not achieve our expectations, driving substantially all of our larger than anticipated operating loss in the quarter. While we are encouraged by some of the early holiday trends in our business, we remain cautious due to the macro economic environment, which has proven highly challenging for the home furnishings sector this year.”

The same song has been sung by all housing related retailers this fall like home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW) and Sears itself.

Lampert will end up getting Restoration for essentially nothing. Sound familiar? Is restoration a huge deal that will make a huge difference in the $53 billion in annual sales Sears generates? No. But Lampert is picking up a quality brand name at a song that will generate positive results and will add to the current brand base Lampert has .

True, Restoration’s results sucked and well, that is why Lampert can get it so cheap. It is called “value” investing for a reason.

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Monday’s Links

WSJ vs NYT, WSJ hires, Media, Ackman

– Murdoch has spent the past ten years watching the NY Times mock his Fox network. Now that he has the Wall St. Journal, I would bet a testicle he crushes them…..

– Step one? Bring in the dogs…

– It would seem it took two years but the media now finally understands the lead paint issue.

– Of all these going public, this may just the the ONE I would take a serious look st.

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CompUSA: Bad News for Best Buy and Circuit City

It is one thing to have competition no one goes to, it is another to have people then rush to it when they give things away. This may put a dent in both Best Buy (BBY) and Circuit City’s (CC) holidays.

In announcing the closing, CompUSA announced it will be offering “attractive bargains on computer and electronic products as part of store closing sales and its 103 retail stores will remain open through the holidays.

Earlier this year they closed over half of their U.S. retail stores in a bid to streamline operations and bolster margins at top-performing stores. Guess it did not work.

Long term this will benefit all electronics retailers like the one mentioned about and even Wal-Mart (WMT) and Sears Holdings (SHLD), for this holiday season though, it is not good news.

In order to rid itself of inventory, undoubtedly CompUSA will be selling merchandise below cost. It is a move unlikely to be replicated by other retailers and this will affect sales during the next 4 weeks in the 103 markets that have the CompUSA locations.

Will it break the holiday season for other retailers? No. It does have the definite possibility of making a good one average or an average one poor though. If anything good comes of we may get a pullback in one of the names as folks over react to the news and get a nice entry price for shares (except Circuit City).

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Retail Web Traffic: Still Wal-Mart’s Domain

Here are the stats from the week ending 12/1. I have eliminated the online only retailers. This is just bricks and clicks combos.

1. www.walmart.com (WMT) = 8.3%
2. www.target.com (TGT) =5.64%
3. www.bestbuy.com (BBY) = 3.88%
4. www.circuitcity.com (CC) =3.11%
5. www.toysrus.com =2.59%
6. www.jcpenney.com (JCP) =2.56%
7. www.sears.com (SHLD) =2.44%
8. www.kohls.com (KSS) =1.38%
9. www.macys.com (M) =1.33%
10. www.kmart.com (SHLD) =1.29%

The Sears / Kmart combination places it in a solid 4th just a click or two behind Best Buy. Wal-Mart still is crushing everyone else and this is the reason for the recent news we have seen. A casual look at the parking lots of both retailers in the area show a slight edge to Wal-Mart on most days.

The web traffic is the reason Wal-Mart investors are so optimistic ans Target ones are left wondering “what is going on”? I used the Wal-Mart “site to store” program and it could not have been any easier (not to mention the huge savings I had on the items we bought). The best I can tell from their site, Target has no such program.

Wal-Mart also has a huge advertising push for the program now and based on the results to date, one would be hard pressed to day it has not been an overwhelming success. Got to give it to the folks in Bentonville, they nailed it on this one.

A surprise is Circuit City. They are a constant top 5 site. If this Holiday season it not a success for them, it simply means they did not convert the eyes to buys and that it a pricing issue, pure and simple. Should that be the case, time for CEO Mr. Philip J. Schoonover to be asked to “pursue other opportunities”. The folks have been there, you need to sell them.

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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
Guy Adami recommends Microsoft (MSFT), which he calls Mr. Softee. Open $34.53

Pete Najarian says Target (TGT) is a buy.Open $55.51

Karen Finerman prefers Children’s Place (PLCE). Open $29.95

Friday’s Results
Jeff Macke recommended buying SPDR (SPY). Open $150.94 Close $150.91 LOSS

Guy Adami liked Intel (INTC). Open $27.98 Close $27.73 LOSS

Tim Seymour preferred Stillwater Mining Company (SWC). Open $10.98 Close $10.58 LOSS

Pete Najarian said Apple (AAPL) is a buy. Open $189.95 Close $194.30 GAIN

Guy Adami= 51-41 = 56%
John Najarian= 13-4 = 76%
Jeff Macke= 56-36 = 63%
Pete Najarian= 40-38 = 51%
Tim Seymore= 6-7 = 57%
Karen Finerman= 33-26 = 55%
Stacey Briere-Gilbert= 3-0 = 100
Ned Riley= 1-0 = 100%
Carter Worth= 0-1 = 0%

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Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


UPGRADES
Oceanfreight OCNF Ferris Baker Watts Neutral » Buy
Shaw Group SGR SMH Capital Sell » Neutral
Synopsys SNPS Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Kenexa KNXA Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Activision ATVI Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
Align Tech ALGN Jefferies & Co Underperform » Hold
National Semi NSM JMP Securities Mkt Perform » Mkt Outperform
Advance Auto AAP JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
AutoZone AZO JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Yingli Green Energy YGE Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
JC Penney JCP Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Overweight
Sunpower SPWR Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Jabil Circuit JBL Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Cintas CTAS Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

DOWNGRADES
Hecla Mining HL BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
CIBC CM BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Smith & Wesson SWHC DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Olympic Steel ZEUS Longbow Buy » Neutral
Napster NAPS Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
American Express AXP Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Smith & Wesson SWHC Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Diodes DIOD Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Intersil ISIL Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Lennar LEN Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Target TGT Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral
Claymont Steel PLTE CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Outperform » Sector Perform
Energy East EAS Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
McAfee MFE Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Smith & Wesson SWHC Rodman & Renshaw Mkt Perform » Mkt Underperform

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ValuePlays KIVA Project

We spend a lot of time talking about millionaires and billionaires and casually throwing hundred billions of dollars figure around like its coffee money. It is time to take some of that effort and contribute to folks who, for a couple hundred bucks, we can change a life.

You can donate here:





Here is how I am doing it:

– I have created a lender page at KIVA.org

– All donations may be private or public. All public donations will be recognized to the extent the contributor wants. A post will be given any links to blogs or sites will also be given should the contributor want.

– Updates on loans given will be done here and can be verified on the lender page

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– Correspondence from loan receivers will be shared with readers.

– By donating to our KIVA project, you acknowledge you are donating free of any conditions or expectation of return of funds. We are trying to change many lives here, not act as a short term lender.

– A full accounting of donations and loans may be found here

– Should you wish to do this all yourself, you may create your own lender page at KIVA.org

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This Weeks Dividend Hikes

Nucor Corp-(NUE) = 172%
Stryker Corp-(SYK)= 50.0%
Range Resources Corp-(RRC) = 33%
Dun & Bradstreet-(DNB) = 20%
Ecolab Inc-(ECL)=13.0%

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This Week’s Insider Buys


Pep Boys Manny Moe & Jack (PBY)= $7,420,351
Central Garden & Pet Co (CENT) = $5,159,017
Patriot Coal Corp (PCX )= $3,292,110
Susser Holdings Corp (SUSS) = $2,926,300
Scientific Games Corp (SGMS )= $2,296,028
Brookdale Senior Living Inc (BKD) = $2,189,058
First Advantage Bancorp (FABK) = $2,025,206
Orange 21 Inc (ORNG) = $1,848,582
Dillard S Inc (DDS)= $1,751,940

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Value Investing News: Top Stories

Here are the week’s favorite reader posts at Value Investing News

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Friday’s Links

Santa and Wall St., France iPhone’s, Sears and Analysts, Hillary’s revenge

– Check this out. Christmas Spirit anyone?

– iPhone are not selling very well in France.

– Max Olson does a great job looking into Sears and an analyst call.

– She never forgets.…..

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Barry Ritholtz on Wall Strip

Check out this video of Barry. Painfully lucid and honest..Great job…

Barry comments on the Fed, Countrywide (CFC), Alternative Energy and more

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