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General Growth Properties Seeks Until 2010 to File Reorg Plan

This was not unexpected as General Growth had initially said when it filed it had hope to file a plan “by the end of the year”. If you follow bankruptcies, you know that those initial deadlines are rarely met due to the complex nature of the process. But, having the clarity is a good thing. It would be shocking were this extension not granted. The only way I can see it done is if Gropper decides to consolidate the filings and just cram down all debt. In that scenario (unlikely), the reorg plan becomes very simple overnight.

This isn’t to say a cram down is not likely or in the best in interest of all parties, it is that there will likely be some dilution and deciding the “who and what” of it will take time…

Dow Jones Reports:

General Growth Properties Inc. (GGWPQ) needs until early next year to
complete its plan to exit bankruptcy, saying its operations are too large and
too complex to meet an upcoming August deadline.

General Growth, the second-largest mall owner in the country, is asking a
judge for a six-month extension to file its plan to exit bankruptcy and repay
creditors. The existing deadline is Aug. 14.

If approved, the extension to Feb. 26, 2010, would allow General Growth to
maintain exclusive control over the path of its bankruptcy case by preventing
creditors and others from filing rival plans with the court.

Chicago-based General Growth filed for bankruptcy April 16 to restructure $27
billion in debt. It said in court papers last week that it has achieved “major
and solid accomplishments” during the case but needs more time to negotiate
with creditors.

The company has spent much of its time in court fighting with lenders to its
malls. Early in the case, lenders unsuccessfully tried to block General
Growth’s plan to spend the cash generated by its individual malls. The lenders
claimed the cash couldn’t be swept into a central account to benefit other
properties.

More recently, a group of lenders and loan servicers representing lenders
moved to force about a dozen of General Growth’s malls out of bankruptcy. They
claim there’s no reason for the properties to be part of General Growth’s
Chapter 11 case because they generate positive cash flow and can service their
debts.

Judge Allan Gropper, who’s overseeing the case in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court
in Manhattan, has yet to rule on the dispute.

At a court hearing scheduled for July 28, Gropper will consider General
Growth’s request for more time to file its bankruptcy plan. In addition to
setting a Feb. 26, 2010, deadline, General Growth wants until April 23 to win
creditor support.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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More Empirical Evidence “Buy and Hold” Not Dead

This is a follow-up to a post from a week or so ago on the “death of buy and hold”. As a group value investors tend to have a longer holding period than most. Because of that typically the “buy and hold/forget” mantra is applied to them in a blanket fashion.

In the previous post I gave a specific example from myself as to why the death declaration is false.

Let’s look at another investor, Bruce Berkowitz of the Fairholme Fund (FAIRX).

Here are the funds returns (click to enlarge):

Here is the funds prospectus:
Prospectus

Berkowitz is the perfect example of what today’s “buy and hold” investor needs to be. He buys cheap, waits for value to be realized OR for a fundamental negative change at the company and then sells. He does not simply “buy it and ignore it”. While the markets have indeed done and round trip the last decade, Bruce’s “buy and hold” has returned 195% over the same time frame….hardy “death like” performance…

If you are a buy and hold type of investor, you MUST buy cheap. There is no other option. Far too many buy and hold folks are under water because they bought expensive. Buy stocks like you buy a TV…..on sale..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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A Peak Behind AutoNation's Land/Lease Deal

My opinion is there is more here than a quick glance would lead one to appear…

First the news:

AutoNation, the nation’s largest car retailer, has returned to Oxnard, spending $9 million for property it’s leasing to an independent operator who has opened two new dealerships — Mercedes-Benz and Smart Car.

In 1998, AutoNation entered the Ventura County market with a used car megastore in a location that most recently housed Cars 101. But a year later, AutoNation exited the used vehicle megastore business and shuttered nearly two dozen stores nationwide, including the one in Oxnard.

Both brands are products of German automaker Daimler AG. The parent company reported Wednesday that combined U.S. sales for its Mercedes-Benz and Smart Cars fell nearly 26.5 percent in June to 16,271, compared with 22,121 in June 2008. The company said it sold 15,155 Mercedes-Benz vehicles, a nearly 22.6 percent decline from a year earlier, while its smart USA line of micro-cars sold 1,116 units in June, a 56.2 percent decline.

Eberhardt could not be reached for comment, but his membership information with the Gerson Lehrman Group’s consulting network sheds light on his ties to Mercedes. From 2003 to 2007, he headed up Chrysler’s global sales and had responsibility for the operation in more than 125 countries with more than 5,500 dealers. From 1993 to 2003, he held a variety of roles with Mercedes-Benz, Daimler and Chrysler, including CEO of Mercedes-Benz UK Ltd.

AutoNation is acting as the landlord of the property, which is about five acres at 1511 Auto Center Drive. The Mercedes and Smart Car dealerships together total approximately 218,000 square feet, according to county records.

Eberhardt and AutoNation have an operating agreement whereby Eberhardt is running the stores, Cannon said.

“We’ve done this before,” he said. “This is not uncommon. It’s like I own the land for the hotel and Hilton comes in as a franchise. It’s really a simple deal. We’re the landlord, he owns the rights to the dealership.”

What is the deal? AutoNation currently has 10% of the US market for Mercedes Benz through 14 Mercedes dealerships and upcoming openings look to bring that total to 12%. We also know AutoNation wants more of the upscale auto market as it has proven less dramatically impacted by recessionary events. They have also not shown any inclination in this environment to reduce their move into this area.

But, like any smart business, while now is the time to be making deals, economic uncertainty does require a certain amount of prudence. This is, in essence a cheap way for AutoNation to get another Mercedes dealership up and running without large upfront expenditures. Anyone else want to bet this dealership eventually (2-4 years) becomes their 100%?


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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A Peak Behind AutoNation’s Land/Lease Deal

My opinion is there is more here than a quick glance would lead one to appear…

First the news:

AutoNation, the nation’s largest car retailer, has returned to Oxnard, spending $9 million for property it’s leasing to an independent operator who has opened two new dealerships — Mercedes-Benz and Smart Car.

In 1998, AutoNation entered the Ventura County market with a used car megastore in a location that most recently housed Cars 101. But a year later, AutoNation exited the used vehicle megastore business and shuttered nearly two dozen stores nationwide, including the one in Oxnard.

Both brands are products of German automaker Daimler AG. The parent company reported Wednesday that combined U.S. sales for its Mercedes-Benz and Smart Cars fell nearly 26.5 percent in June to 16,271, compared with 22,121 in June 2008. The company said it sold 15,155 Mercedes-Benz vehicles, a nearly 22.6 percent decline from a year earlier, while its smart USA line of micro-cars sold 1,116 units in June, a 56.2 percent decline.

Eberhardt could not be reached for comment, but his membership information with the Gerson Lehrman Group’s consulting network sheds light on his ties to Mercedes. From 2003 to 2007, he headed up Chrysler’s global sales and had responsibility for the operation in more than 125 countries with more than 5,500 dealers. From 1993 to 2003, he held a variety of roles with Mercedes-Benz, Daimler and Chrysler, including CEO of Mercedes-Benz UK Ltd.

AutoNation is acting as the landlord of the property, which is about five acres at 1511 Auto Center Drive. The Mercedes and Smart Car dealerships together total approximately 218,000 square feet, according to county records.

Eberhardt and AutoNation have an operating agreement whereby Eberhardt is running the stores, Cannon said.

“We’ve done this before,” he said. “This is not uncommon. It’s like I own the land for the hotel and Hilton comes in as a franchise. It’s really a simple deal. We’re the landlord, he owns the rights to the dealership.”

What is the deal? AutoNation currently has 10% of the US market for Mercedes Benz through 14 Mercedes dealerships and upcoming openings look to bring that total to 12%. We also know AutoNation wants more of the upscale auto market as it has proven less dramatically impacted by recessionary events. They have also not shown any inclination in this environment to reduce their move into this area.

But, like any smart business, while now is the time to be making deals, economic uncertainty does require a certain amount of prudence. This is, in essence a cheap way for AutoNation to get another Mercedes dealership up and running without large upfront expenditures. Anyone else want to bet this dealership eventually (2-4 years) becomes their 100%?


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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Monday's Links

Thank you, Summers, “Warming”, Output

– Thanks for the mention

– If he is going to run the Fed, let see how he left his last job, Harvard.

– Now that we have had the coolest June in almost 6 decades, let look at the “warming” fallacy

– A spooky tracking similarity


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Monday’s Links

Thank you, Summers, “Warming”, Output

– Thanks for the mention

– If he is going to run the Fed, let see how he left his last job, Harvard.

– Now that we have had the coolest June in almost 6 decades, let look at the “warming” fallacy

– A spooky tracking similarity


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Cap 'n Trade Explained

Meet Cap ‘n Trade from Marketplace on Vimeo.


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Cap ‘n Trade Explained

Meet Cap ‘n Trade from Marketplace on Vimeo.


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The New Oil: Energy Demand and Water

BIO

Ken Caldeira – Ken Caldeira is the head of the Caldeira Lab at Stanford University, which conducts research to try to improve the science base needed to allow human civilization to develop while protecting our environmental endowment.

David Harrison – David Harrison is a practicing water resources lawyer in Boulder, Colorado, of counsel with the firm of Moses, Wittemyer, Harrison and Woodruff, P.C. He works as a consultant to The Nature Conservancy acting as senior advisor to the Global Freshwater Team, formerly the Freshwater Initiative, of which he was one of the co-founders. In that connection, he leads the strategic group on Ecologically Sustainable Hydropower. He is currently focusing on the application of that approach at several demonstration projects including the YangtzeRiver Basin in China and the ZambeziRiver Basin in southern Africa. In addition, he is working with the International Hydropower Association in examining ways to transform global standards and practices for sustainable hydropower.

Peter Murdoch – Pete Murdoch is a Research Hydrologist with the Watershed Research Group of the US Geological Survey in Troy, New York. Since 1982 he has lead research projects on watershed biogeochemical processes, and the effects of acid rain and climate change on aquatic systems. In the mid-1990s he served as the DOI representative to the White House Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources (CENR), and lead a pilot of a multi-agency collaborative assessment of the Delaware River based on the CENR ‘Framework for Environmental Monitoring and Research”. In 2004-06, Murdoch served as the DOI representative to an interagency committee that oversees the North American Carbon Program. He now is leading a multi-agency study on the effects of permafrost thawing on the hydrology, energy, and carbon budgets of the Yukon River Basin.

Michael P. Totten – Michael Totten has nearly three decades of professional work in promoting ecologically sustainable economic development at the local, national and international levels. At Conservation International’s Center for Environmental Leadership in Business (CELB), he focuses on engaging the business sector in opportunities to shrink the ecological footprints of their operations and products and advising them on ways to take action to offset these footprints with positive steps, such as preserving threatened biodiversity habitat.

Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran – Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran is a global correspondent for The Economist. He joined the magazine’s staff as the London-based Latin America Correspondent in 1992. Two years later, he opened its first bureau in that region in Mexico City. He wrote about political, financial and cultural developments in that part of the world until 1997, when he returned to the editorial headquarters in London. As the newspaper’s Global Environment & Energy Correspondent, he covered the politics, economics, business and technology involved in those topics from 1998 to 2006.



Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources

BIO

Peter Balash – Peter C. Balash, Ph.D., is senior economist at the United States Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. He has followed energy markets, energy security, and technology issues for NETL since 2002, focusing on the interaction of upstream fuel market developments with downstream, or end-use, sectors. Current duties include studying the near and medium term economic impacts of climate change mitigation policy and assessing energy security options in a carbon-constrained world, inclusive of coal to liquids. He has also recently directed a study of scenarios to simultaneously reduce petroleum consumption and carbon emissions. These scenarios focus on linkages between the transport, electricity, and petroleum markets. Previously Mr. Balash worked for the Internal Revenue Service in Houston, Texas, engaged in multinational corporate audits and transfer pricing issues. Mr. Balash earned his doctorate in economics in 1992 from the University of Texas at Austin. He received a bachelor’s in economics from Xavier University, Cincinnati, in 1987. He resides with his family in McMurray, Pennsylvania.
Frits Eulderink – Frits Eulderink began his career with Shell in 1990. He spent a portion of his initial assignment working in the United States on Coal Gasification at the Westhollow Research Center and the Deer Park facility in Houston, Texas. In his current role as Vice President of the Unconventional Oil organization, Eulderink is focused on developing and leveraging in-situ conversion / upgrading technologies on a commercial scale to produce light oil and gas from deep oil shale and heavy oil deposits in an effort to meet growing future energy demands in an environmentally responsible and socially acceptable manner. Eulderink and his team bridge the full spectrum from research and appraisal through development and production of Unconventional Oil assets in North America and worldwide. Eulderink’s previous role was as the General Manager of Bapetco, Egypt, Exploration & Production. In his career with Shell, he has held various technical and management roles in the United States, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Eulderink was born in Leiden, Netherlands. He has Masters degrees in Astrophysics and Mathematics from Leiden University. While obtaining his Leiden Ph.D. in Astrophysics, he worked with the faculty of the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom.
Gordon Pickering – Gordon Pickering, Navigant Consulting, Inc., is a Director in NCI’s Fuels Analysis practice, in Sacramento, CA. He has over 28 years of energy industry experience, mostly in the natural gas industry in the United States and Canada. Throughout his career, Mr. Pickering has worked closely with the electric generation sector as a natural gas marketer and commodity services supplier and most recently as a consultant. He has also provided valuation expertise to infrastructure projects such as storage operators and pipelines and has worked extensively in both the public and private sectors. A focus for Mr. Pickering has been in providing detailed market assessments as part of due diligence efforts supporting infrastructure investments and mergers and acquisition activity in the upstream and mid-stream sectors of the natural gas industry. He has also consulted to the LNG industry performing market studies supporting new regasification projects in North America. Mr. Pickering has expertise in physical and financial natural gas pricing and contracts including hedging and risk management. Mr. Pickering is co-author of the North American Natural Gas Supply Assessment study, a gas supply research project for the American Clean Skies Foundation. This widely distributed study updated the natural gas resource base in North America and was first issued in July of 2008, in Washington, DC. Mr. Pickering heads up NCI’s fuels forecasting and analytics team in Sacramento, CA.
Andre Plourde – Andre Plourde is Professor and Chair, Department of Economics, University of Alberta. He received his B.A. and M.A. in Economics from the University of New Brunswick, and a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of British Columbia. After serving as assistant professor and research associate at the University of Toronto from 1983 to 1987, he joined the Department of Economics at the University of Ottawa. In 1997, Plourde undertook a one-year assignment as Director of Economic Studies and Policy Analysis with the federal Department of Finance. He joined the University of Alberta in 1998, where he helped launch the Natural Resources and Energy specialization within the School of Business’s MBA program. During academic year 2003-2004, Plourde took a one-year leave from academic life and was appointed Associate Assistant Deputy Minister for the Energy sector at Natural Resources Canada. Plourde has served on numerous advisory committees. In 2007, he was appointed to the Province of Alberta’s Royalty Review Panel; he also served as President of the International Association for Energy Economics. His research interests have centered mainly on energy economics and on Canadian energy and environmental policy issues.
John Wimer – Mr. Wimer has worked at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory for eighteen years, providing engineering support to DOE’s Fossil Energy research and development programs, primarily in the areas of advanced coal conversion technologies. Presently, Mr. Wimer is the director of NETL’s Systems Division, which performs technology evaluation, systems engineering and economic analyses to inform policy makers and to guide NETL’s R&D programs. Mr. Wimer earned M.S. and B.S. degrees in Mechanical Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University and West Virginia University, and holds the Certified Energy Manager credential from the Association of Energy Engineers.


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Friday's Links

Jon & Kate, Madoff, Wal-Mart

– Get over it. Now they are suing TLC, the show that made them rich for “emotional distress” via their divorce. These two are being exposed as simply self-indulgent tripe. “It is all about the kids”…my ass….

– Dasan nails it perfectly

– I own Wal-Mart shares but this is simply about adding costs to competition, not altruistic reasons



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Friday’s Links

Jon & Kate, Madoff, Wal-Mart

– Get over it. Now they are suing TLC, the show that made them rich for “emotional distress” via their divorce. These two are being exposed as simply self-indulgent tripe. “It is all about the kids”…my ass….

– Dasan nails it perfectly

– I own Wal-Mart shares but this is simply about adding costs to competition, not altruistic reasons



Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Sears’ Online Strategy Unfolding

Sears’ is doing doing some very interesting things online that while in their infancy, have the potential to turn them into a “social shopping hub”.

From Bnet:

Sears Holding announcements about the advance of its web-based marketing strategy have followed fast and furious of late and now the company has announced that it will become the first major retailer to launch the Open ID platform – one that permits users to establish a single screen name for identification across web sites — for the MySears and MyKmart communities it has been building online.

According to Sears Holding spokesman Tom Aiello, launching the OpenID platform is the first part of a two-phase initiative to establish MySears and MyKmart as adjuncts to popular social networks. He said:

It’s part of a bigger, long-term vision. Phase one basically enables our individual participants to use their IDs to get into the Sears communities. Phase two will enable sharing in either direction based on user permissions. That’s going to include things like photos, content and product reviews they might have done on MySears and want to share with friends.

The move will connect users of Sears communities directly to social media portals Facebook, Twitter, Yahoo! and MySpace. Sears communities already get a million monthly visitors, the company stated, and the social media connections can only pump that number up.

While a launch date has not yet been set, the second phase will roll out this year, Aiello said, which should put it in effect for the critical holiday season and provide the virtual ground for any number of cyber promotions.

“The beauty of OpenID is that all of those prominent portals people have known and grown to trust make it easier for users to get into one of the Sears communities,” Aiello said.

In announcing the OpenID adoption, Rob Harles, Sears vice president of community, said the technology “helps simplify our customers’ online experience and ultimately helps us meet our goal of ensuring our customers have the most efficient shopping experience possible.”

Sears seems to be the fist significant retailer who has developed a strategy around social networking site that is designed to drive sales. To date neither Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT), JC Penny (JCP) or any of the other large retailers seem to be making much of an effort.

Again from the article:

Yet, online is only one element of an evolving Sears multi-channel selling strategy. The company also has been linking its web and store operations through programs such as Shop Your Way, which puts web kiosks in stores, and Sears2go, which facilitates purchasing over mobile phones. Aiello previously told Bnet that a range of Sears cyber experiments had been coalescing into a more clearly defined marketing strategy over the past year and those would support the multi-channel selling proposition.

The OpenID announcement makes it more apparent that Sears plans to develop a social network hub that will link store, Internet and mobile initiatives with the goal of connecting customers more intimately with the retailer, in a virtual kind of way.

In the past I have complained here that Sears disparate retail sites were not a cohesive unit online and I felt that was hurting their efficiency.

The recent changes at Sears.com fixed many of those issue and now these new initiatives are aimed at driving people to the site and better promoting the products.

This is really worth watching because it is unlike what any other retailer is doing now. at the annual meeting Lampert stressed his desire to expand the online business and this proves he is indeed investing in that arena.

Since Sears does not give monthly updates, other than quarterly results, the results of these initiatives will have to be gleamed from what information is released or third party sources.

With that being said, with the abnormally quiet Lampert vocally supporting it and the rate at which progress is being made, one would probably be safe assuming Lampert is pleased with the return he is getting on the investment to date.

On another note. Sears still have not names a new CEO and the search is taking some time. What will be very interesting to see is if the new CEO is more of a typical brick and mortar retailer OR if their backround is more web-based.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD

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McDonalds New Burger

So McDonalds (MCD) is introducing its first new burger in a long time, called “Angus Third Pounders” .

Will it work? Based on early tests in NY and other test markets, yes it will. The cost of the product will be $4 which is not unreasonable at all for a burger. McDonalds is also going the right direction. Going up the price ladder is easier than coming down.

Look at Starbucks (SBUX), they cannot shake the “expensive” label, no matter how hard they try because for so long, they were and were proud of it because to them it signaled “quality”. Now the consumer has turned as is looking for value and McDonalds is printing profits as they come in the door.

The burger. I think people are really underestimating the potential here. Think about it. Most people like a good burger and $4 is still dramatically cheaper than the $7 -$9 you pay in most chain restaurants for one. Because of that, I am of the opinion that a large swath of current customers are going to give it a spin. Mom and dad can enjoy one while the little kids enjoy the Happy Meal they always want.

From a consumer perspective, this is the perfect thing for them to be doing now. They have expanded the coffee customer base, expanded the healthy offerings, and now they are expanding the base of people who want a burger but also want more than the current cheeseburger fare. Unlike other past unsuccessful roll-outs like when they ventured into pizza, this is perfectly in keeping with what people go to McDonalds for in the first place.

This is going to be big folks…..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, none

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Thursday's Links

Deficits, Savings, Approval, Auto’s, Kneale

– Mish has a good piece on their unsustainability

– Why the Chinese save

– It would seem that those who “strongly disagree” now outnumber those who “strongly agree”

– Sales track over 10m units. This is a good proxy for the consumers outlook

– Dennis Kneale took a swipe at bloggers and they respond…..by using these annoying things called facts to refute what he says…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):