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Monday’s Links

Cool, Cat fight, Failed Banks, Crazy lady

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– This is a really cool site

– OK….not the place to have this out

– Here is the list

– OMG…Women misses flight


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The Mark-To-Market Debate Continued

A follow-up to last weeks conversation…

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“Davidson” chimes in about the following piece:
“Wesbury had a follow-up to his prediction that last Monday would see some Mark-to-Market modification. He stated that Sen. Dodd had told him that this would happen and my guess that Wesbury was so miffed at being used as a trial balloon that he decided to reveal his source in this video. Keep up the pressure on this issue as the tide is turning I think.”

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Saturday Humor

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Sony Releases New Stupid Piece Of Shit That Doesn’t Fucking Work

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Monish Pabrai 2008 Year End Letter

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Pabrai Investment Funds 08 Year End Letter

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Business Presentations & Slid pabrai hedge fund

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"Not One Member Has Read This Bill"

How in good conscious can you vote on something you have not read???

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Saturday’s Links

MSM, “Failure”, China, Inventory

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– Um…did they not know who Barry was (ie. not a “shill”)?

– I’m not a fan of the guy but this is a bit premature..

– This is truly troubling

– When things do turn, it could be explosive
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Fariholme Files 13F: Adds Amex, Dumps Berkshire $$

Some interesting moves here from Bruce Berkowitz at Fairholme (FAIRX)

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Sept. Filing

December Filing

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David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Releases 13F

He added 3 million shares of Dow Chemical (DOW) in Q4.

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State by State Impact of Stimulus Bill

Read it…….and weep…..what a steaming pile of horse dung….sorry, no better way to say it

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Recovery Act State-specific Impact One-pagers 2-11

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Charlie Munger Speech at UCSB

Titled: “Academic Economics: Strengths and Faults After Considering Interdisciplinary Needs”

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Munger UCSBspeech

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Baupost Group Files Quarterly Report

Seth Klarman’s Baupost Group has filed it latest quarterly report.

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Here are the holdings:

Full Filing


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Rich Gordon on TARP

Wells Fargo’s (WFC) Rich Gordon talks about the next wave of the TARP. You can finds Rich’s work regularly on Wall St. Media

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Starbucks New Moto: "Now We’re The Most Expensive in Instant Too!!"

This is a joke……. Not too long from now business school students will be doing case studies on the “destruction of the Starbucks (SBUX) brand”.

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Remember this memo?

Over the past ten years, in order to achieve the growth, development, and scale necessary to go from less than 1,000 stores to 13,000 stores and beyond, we have had to make a series of decisions that, in retrospect, have lead to the watering down of the Starbucks experience, and, what some might call the commoditization of our brand.

Many of these decisions were probably right at the time, and on their own merit would not have created the dilution of the experience; but in this case, the sum is much greater and, unfortunately, much more damaging than the individual pieces. For example, when we went to automatic espresso machines, we solved a major problem in terms of speed of service and efficiency. At the same time, we overlooked the fact that we would remove much of the romance and theatre that was in play with the use of the La Marzocca machines. This specific decision became even more damaging when the height of the machines, which are now in thousands of stores, blocked the visual sight line the customer previously had to watch the drink being made, and for the intimate experience with the barista. This, coupled with the need for fresh roasted coffee in every North America city and every international market, moved us toward the decision and the need for flavor locked packaging. Again, the right decision at the right time, and once again I believe we overlooked the cause and the affect of flavor lock in our stores. We achieved fresh roasted bagged coffee, but at what cost? The loss of aroma — perhaps the most powerful non-verbal signal we had in our stores; the loss of our people scooping fresh coffee from the bins and grinding it fresh in front of the customer, and once again stripping the store of tradition and our heritage? Then we moved to store design. Clearly we have had to streamline store design to gain efficiencies of scale and to make sure we had the ROI on sales to investment ratios that would satisfy the financial side of our business. However, one of the results has been stores that no longer have the soul of the past and reflect a chain of stores vs. the warm feeling of a neighborhood store. Some people even call our stores sterile, cookie cutter, no longer reflecting the passion our partners feel about our coffee. In fact, I am not sure people today even know we are roasting coffee. You certainly can’t get the message from being in our stores. The merchandise, more art than science, is far removed from being the merchant that I believe we can be and certainly at a minimum should support the foundation of our coffee heritage. Some stores don’t have coffee grinders, French presses from Bodum, or even coffee filters.

Now that I have provided you with a list of some of the underlying issues that I believe we need to solve, let me say at the outset that we have all been part of these decisions. I take full responsibility myself, but we desperately need to look into the mirror and realize it’s time to get back to the core and make the changes necessary to evoke the heritage, the tradition, and the passion that we all have for the true Starbucks experience. While the current state of affairs for the most part is self induced, that has lead to competitors of all kinds, small and large coffee companies, fast food operators, and mom and pops, to position themselves in a way that creates awareness, trial and loyalty of people who previously have been Starbucks customers. This must be eradicated.

So, this was the “new” direction Howard Schultz was taking the company in March 2007.

Fast forward….

From the NY Times:

Starbucks is moving into the instant coffee market as it works to shake off its reputation as a seller of expensive coffee drinks.

The company, based in Seattle, plans to unveil Via instant coffee on Tuesday and make it available next month.

Starbucks says Via was in development for 20 years and replicates the taste of its coffee. Three single-serve Via packets will cost $2.95, and 12 packets will be $9.95.

The move pits the company, which already sells its coffee beans in grocery stores and in its own shops, against giant food sellers with established instant coffee brands, including Nestle, the maker of Nescafe, and Kraft Foods, the maker of Sanka.

Instant coffee, which Starbucks says has a $17 billion global market, was more popular decades ago in the United States and remains a staple in parts of Europe and Asia.

“Starbucks is trying to go where the customer is,” Tom Forte of the Telsey Advisory Group said.

Starbucks is “giving a customer an opportunity to experience the brand at a lower price point,” Mr. Forte said. “The company is being aggressive in trying to generate sales in an increasingly weak economic environment.”

Simple analysis is that Starbucks once again has no idea about its market. “20 somethings” do not “trade down” to instant because a Starbucks label is slapped on the package. Nor will your 80 year grandmother switch from her Folgers to pay 3 times as much for Starbucks instant. Mystifying…

This does not move the needle on people’s thought process from “expensive” to “value”. It moves it from “quality” to “crap”. Somewhere McDonalds (MCD) exects are laughing their asses off on this one

Nice job Howard….

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"Mark to Market" ….It Continues

A follow-up to my recent post.

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Tradefast Says:

To my point- it isn’t just the market for stocks and snow shovels which exhbit cyclical/predictable patterns. These patterns are also apparent in the market for physical business assets – plant and equipment.

Pick a major steel company, a paper company, a chemical company (without loss of generality)- if the company had to dispose of all their plants at the bid side of today’s market, would any of these companies be solvent. Why? Because the bid/ask spread for these physical assets is exceedingly wide in a recession. If you marked all of U.S. Steel’s assets to the price where they can sell a marginal ton of capacity, X would be bankrupt. Fortunately, X is under no pressure to liquidate assets – so we can all play along with the assumption that the company is solvent, with a very substantial net worth.

Ah, but what about the banks? No such benefit of the doubt is given to banks. We assume that if a bank has assets with a wide bid/ask, the bank must be camoflauging the fact that they are insolvent and most of their assets are ‘toxic’. The market is broken, illiquidity premiums are enormous, bid/ask spreads on bank assets are in disequilibrium, and mark-to-market account rules need to be repealed, ASAP. I expect the accounting rules to change, probably within a week.

My two cents:
There have been rumors all week that some repeal of it is in the works. Not a full reversal of the policy, but one that deals with illiquid securities that essentially have no market. When forced to liquidate, the seller takes whatever the buyer offers. That then sets the market for all other securities held by all whether they need to sell or not.

In its basic essence, mark to market empowers to weakest holder of securities to set the value of the strongest’s, thus dragging down the whole system to its level. That is not what capitalism is about. The strong are supposed to survive and prosper while the weak fall by themselves to the wayside.

What has happened now is the weak, far from falling by the wayside have become a massive anchor on the whole system……..not good.

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Another Loss for Tobacco in Court

I have a feeling this is but the tip of an iceberg for Altria (MO)….

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Jane Genova Reports:

A major blow for the tobacco industry, reports THE WALL STREET JOURNAL, “A jury decided Thursday that a longtime chain-smoker’s death from long cancer was caused by nicotine addicton, a potentially costly loss for tobacco giant Philip Morris and an important test for thousands of similar Florida lawsuits.”

This was the first of 8000 such personal-injury cases. In 2006, the FL Supreme Court had upheld the complaint that the tobacco industry had knowingly sold potentially harmful products while hiding the health risks. However, it also tossed the $145 billion jury award in a class action lawsuit. As a result, plaintiff attorneys began filing personal injury complaints.

In this particular case, filed by Elaine Hess a widow of a smoker, the attorneys are expected to request millions of dollars. For BigTobacco, this could be bankruptcy by a millions of cuts.

When I sold Altria in December of last year at the time I said:

Altria. It has been a wonderful investment bought back in 2000 for a now adjusted $4 a share it has produced shares of Kraft (KFT), sold, and Phillip Morris International (PM), still held. It has also produce thousands of dollars in dividends over the years. I will hold PMI as it yields 5%, has great growth prospects and little ligation risk.

But, I fear things are going to take a turn for the worse here domestically and with already owning shares of the international tobacco operations, it is time to exit. Will the upcoming purchase is UST (UST) help earnings? Yes. Will it offset the upcoming deluge of lawsuits against the company? Not so sure. Having Tom Daschle at HHS is also a bad omen. Whatever grand plans he has for universal health care will undoubtedly be funded in part on the back of cigarette companies through litigation or its customers through oppressive taxes.

The irony of the tax argument is that it is a “negative” not “progressive” tax. We know the less education a person has, the more likely they are to smoke. We also know that those with less education tend to be lower income earners. It this case, raising taxes to these addicts decreases their disposable income to fund grand ideas of health care for all. Nice…”soak the poor”

Now Daschle has flamed out, but insert whomever is next and the song is the same

State governments starved for cash will not “kill the golden goose” and bankrupt tobacco companies (that and tobacco lawyers are infinitely smarted than legislators). BUT, they also will be determined to leave little behind for shareholders….

Hypocrisy at its highest

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