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Starbucks Losing Core Customers?

Shane over at NoiseFreeInveting.com emailed me his post and I think he makes good and possibly devastating points for Starbucks (SBUX).

Shane says
:
“All of the sudden Starbucks experience felt different. My drink tasted different. The romance of my morning coffee was gone. Of course, chemically my drink had the same composition. (Often however the milk tasted burnt – a by-product of preheating milk that has to stay warm longer while it waits for a customer.)

If you remove the romance, Starbucks reverts to selling a simple, easily substitutable, commodity. After a few mornings of unromantic experiences, I wondered why I was forking out money for a latte that tasted so blah and I stopped going.

It took a few years, but I’ve recently found a great little coffee shop that makes the best latte’s in town. The company offer fresh hand-measured (and timed) espresso shots, individually heated milk regardless of how many customers are in line, and fancy designs on their latte’s. They offer the romance I was missing.

Money and speed never played a factor in my decision – Starbucks fails to understand that. As evidence I submit a recent ad campaign. The promise? Better Coffee. Faster.

The company is now openly admitting they are selling a commodity. In the place of romance they are offering operational excellence. Starbucks only thinks they sell better coffee. True coffee lovers — the ones that can tell you where the beans are from just by sipping the coffee — avoid the company.”

Now, if Shane is right then things may be worse for Starbucks than even I think. If my thesis that coffee is a simple commodity then price rules hold true, Starbucks can reverse its current free fall by becoming more “value oriented”. But, if Shane’s is the predominant factor for the current situation, then it means Starbucks is not just losing the cost conscious consumer but it core one also.

That would be the worst news of all…


Full Post

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Back to Back Fed Auctions?

This is a first and probably necessary due to the unfulfilled demand in the first auction on Aug. 11th.

On August 12, 2008
, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $50 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.450 percent

Total propositions submitted: $75.462 billion
Total propositions accepted: $50.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 1.51

Number of bidders: 65

Now, rates cam down considerably from the 8/11 auction and this may have simply been and issue to the lower number of bids vs available fund.

It is a bit concerning that $75 billion had to be auctioned in back to back days…

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Thain Sticks It To Dimon

Remember Merrill’s (MER) dumping of mortgage products to Lone Star for 22 cents on the dollar? It is now coming home to roost at the rest of the banks.

JPMorgan (JPM) said since the beginning of July, trading conditions in the mortgage market “had substantially deteriorated . . . causing the company to incur losses” of $1.5bn, excluding hedges.

Bankers said July was the worst month for mortgage-backed bonds since the beginning of the crisis, as a combination of cut-price sales and waning demand from large investors helped to depress prices. Morgan said the writedowns were partly driven by Merrill Lynch’s decision to sell $6.7bn in toxic securities to Lone Star funds, the distressed debt investor, for just 22 cents on the dollar.

The move prompted a fall in the prices of similar securities, forcing JPMorgan to mark down its own assets.

This is the problem with “mark to market” accounting when the market is so dislocated. It is a bit like the bank coming to you because the price of your home fell and telling you to sell your car to raise capital. If you are not selling your home and have a conforming mortgage, its current valuation is meaningless. JP Morgan does not need to sell the securities to raise capital. Now, if troubled firms desperate for cash need to dump additional assets to save themselves, the value of all assets may drop further, causing additional write-down and then the need may arise to restore ratios.

What is being ignored here is the cash flows from the assets. Not all of them are impaired and now are trading at prices below the streams of income they produce. Remember, Thain said that the financed part of the Lone Star transaction was fully financed by the revenue from the CDO’s.

Just because your neighbor gets himself in a jam, it should not force you to liquidate or materially markdown your assets.

Mart-to-market is exacerbating the current banks problem because it is forcing actions that without it in the extremity of the current market, would not be necessary.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Schoonover Playing Fiddle on Deck While Titanic Sinks

Remember the scene from the movie “Titanic”? As the ship is going down, the group of violinists stays on decks playing thinking the ship ultimately will not sink. I am pretty sure one of them was Circuit City (CC) CEO Phil Schoonover.

Five years after Circuit City refused an $8-a-share offer from Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim and a 2005 $17-a-share offer by hedge fund Highfields Capital Management LP Schoonover & Crew messed up a $6 to $8 offer from Blockbuster (BBI). Shares today sit at $1.75. Why did Blockbuster back out? Lack of disclosure from Circuit City.

Now word comes word that a they have put on hold the completion of a $45 million distribution facility near Scranton, Pa., which had been slated to begin operations later this year. The facility was to replace two others in an effort to streamline operation and save money. When you don’t have the cash to spend (even after canceling the dividend) to save cash, things are really tight.

The WSJ did a piece yesterday that has a classic paragraph
“In July, Mr. Schoonover asked investors to forget much of the Richmond, Va., company’s recent history: turnarounds that didn’t materialize, a revolving door of top executives and burgeoning losses. Instead, he held out a vision of a company “on the right track with the right strategies, the right talent and improved processes,” he said in a conference call with investors.”

Schoonover then went out and destroyed investors last hope of seeing more than $3 each for their shares anytime this decade.

In a final irony, Schoonover, who was interviewed by the Journal last year about “how to execute a turnaround” declined to be interviewed for this story. Good idea.

The Journal continued:
“Circuit City has a secured credit line of about $1 billion that could allow it to withstand losses for the rest of the year, assuming continued support by its big suppliers. Supplier discontent helped send retailers Linens ‘n Things, Steve & Barry’s and Mervyn’s to seek bankruptcy protection this year.

Circuit City also recently filed a shelf registration that would allow it to bolster its capital by selling new shares or to find debt-assuming buyers. A Circuit City spokesman says that “the vendors are still supporting us.””

OK. Who would buy it? Really? CC has enough credit available to hang on for a while assuming vendors will continue to sell them product on credit. That is by no means a sure thing. Credit is tightening for companies with good outlooks and this little thing called profits. For a struggling company, hemorrhaging money using the credit card to buy products to lose more money, credit will evaporate.

If we believe the economy will struggle or flatline through 2009, then CC is done. They cannot make it through another year like this. Perhaps the buy a lifeline if they can sell their Canadian stores, but not a lengthy one.

I think in six months it will be proven the Blockbuster offer was the “last chance” for shareholders it was.

What Schoonover and The Board has done there should be criminal..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Wednesday’s Links

Thank-you, MBIA v Ackman, iPhone, Happy Birthday

– Thank you for the mention.

– More thoughts on the subject

– Uh… not so great

– A Happy Birthday to George over at Fat Pitch

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Corn Harvest to be 2nd Largest Ever

Good news for ethanol producers like ADM (ADM), Verasun (VSE) and Pacifc Ethanol (PEIX).

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast that farmers will harvest 12.3 billion bushels of corn, up more than 570 million bushels from last month’s estimate of 11.7 billion. That’s down 6% from last year’s record crop of 13.1 billion bushels, but 17% above the 2006 harvest.

Average corn prices this year are expected to drop to $4.90 to $5.90 per bushel, down 60 cents from last month’s forecast of $5.50 to $6.50.

Corn prices soared to record levels near $8 after the floods, the worst to hit the Midwest in 15 years. But cooler, wetter weather since then will boost corn yields to 155 bushels per acre, up from last month’s estimate of 148.4, the department said.

Corn prices have already dropped to almost $5 per bushel, though that is still higher than in 2006, when a bushel cost $2.

In its recent earnings release, ADM said it expected to see higher ethanol selling costs this quarter and this news ought to bring down corn costs that saw a “significant increase in the prior quarter.

The recent Kiplinger Reports said that refiners are trying to slip extra ethanol in mixes because of the 88 cents per gallon cost differential. What this means is that there is no demand issue with the product, refiners cannot get enough of it.

We are about 4 billion gallon per year short of making all US gasoline E10. This year the industry will produce roughly 9 billion gallons and the mandate for next year is 11.1 billion. This will easily be absorbed through the system.

It all boils down to increases profits for ADM and the others..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM, none

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Barney Frank on Housing and Fannie & Freddie

Watch Barney Frank talking to Fox Biz. He covers housing, mortgages, and goes into a bit of detail on Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). Short story, he sees no reason they should be nationalized nor does he feel they are in trouble. It is a great piece.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Nice Payday for Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square

Week one, disclose position in Longs Drug Stores (LDG). Next week, make 87% on investment when CVS (CVS) buys you out.

Reuters Reports
:
“CVS Caremark will pay $71.50 per share for Longs to acquire some 521 Longs stores in California, Nevada, Arizona and Hawaii, as well as its Rx America subsidiary, a prescription benefits management services company.

The deal was expected to crimp earnings per share at CVS Caremark in its first year, but add to earnings beginning in 2010, the companies said.

CVS Caremark is expected to gain cost savings of approximately $100 million in 2009 and approximately $140 million to $150 million in 2010 from purchasing savings and lower selling, general and administrative costs.

“This transaction provides tremendous benefits to CVS Caremark by accelerating our expansion in very attractive drugstore markets and strengthening our geographic reach,” the company’s chairman and chief executive, Thomas Ryan, said in a statement.”

Ackman has an economic interest in 23% of the company. Quick math says he nets $667 million and a rough estimate profit of $580 million. Not a bad week at all…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Tilson’s T2 Files 13F, More Sears, More Borders, Less Berkshire

Whitney Tilson’s T2 Partners has files in quarterly 13F. There are some interesting moves.

T2:
Increased ownership in Sears Holdings (SHLD) to over 50,000 shares
Purchased 11,000 shares of Starbucks (SBUX) as a new holding
Increased his stake in Borders (BGP) from 900K to 1.3 million shares
Added a new position (in addition to 797 existing calls) of 45,000 shares of American Express (AXP)
Decreased his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) holdings by 260 class “B” shares
Increased his Target (TGT) stake from 104k to 185k shares of common and now holds 200 less calls
Increased his Whole Foods (WFMI) stake from 7k to 25k shares.

Tilson is the second value manager, Fairholme’s (FAIRX)following Bruce Berkowitz’ disclosure last week to increase their stake in Sears Holdings. The American Express stake was bought at probably fire sales prices that occurred during the quarter and will probably be a “genius” purchase down the road.

What is of note is the Borders increase heading into the fall as Ackman’s options for the warrants he has comes due.

What will be a great interest now is whether or not Ackman completes the Sears trifecta when he reports his holdings.


Full August Filing


Full May filing

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD, BGP, none

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Obama’s "Truth Challenged" Harley Davidson Ad

I am entering this fray because it involves on of my holdings, Harley Davidson (HOG)

A new Obama ad said
:
“The ad featured McCain appearing at the recent Sturgis motorbike rally in South Dakota where he proclaimed to cheering bikers: “Not long ago a couple hundred thousand Berliners made a lot of noise for my opponent.

“I will take the roar of 50,000 Harleys any day!”

With the noise of a motorcycle engine throbbing in the background, the Obama ad’s narrator says: “It’s time to hear the roar of a strong American economy again, and stop John McCain from shipping our jobs overseas.”

Rick Gray, an avid biker who is mayor of Lancaster in Pennsylvania, not far from York, said in an Obama campaign statement that McCain was guilty of hypocrisy.

“John McCain should be ashamed of himself, not just for voting against protecting an American company like Harley-Davidson, but then for going in front of a group of motorcyclists in Sturgis and pretending to be one of them,” he said.

The statement noted that the local Harley factory was shedding 300 workers, as McCain came to York to press home his message to blue-collar workers that Obama is a dangerous risk for the presidency. “

The jobs lost at the Harley Davidson plant have nothing to do with “jobs going overseas”. In fact, not a single Harley Davidson motorcycle is made anywhere but in the US and to the best of my knowledge no local government or the Feds use anything other than Harley’s (mainly police work) . The job losses are simply from the current decline in bike sales due to the economy and tighter credit markets. Simple

I know these ads use populist rhetoric to convey a message in 30 seconds, but, ought they not contain a glimmer of truth?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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Dow Ag Makes Seed Acquisition

Dow Ag, a division of Dow Chemical (DOW) has reached an agreement to acquire Wisconsin based Diaryland Seed Co., one of the nations largest independent seed companies.

Terms were not announced and the deal is expected to be finalized next month.

By acquiring Dairyland, Dow will boost its soybean and alfalfa breeding program and expand seed sales in the northern Midwest, where the family owned 101-year-old Dairyland is a well-known brand to farmers.

This is Dow’s 5th seed-related acquisition in the past year. The seed business Dow has built currently is strong in corn, sunflowers and cotton and now that is being expended into soybeans and alfalfa with the purchase. Coming into 2010 is the introduction of Smartstax, the first 8 trait genetically engineered seed developed in conjunction with Monsanto (MON).

Dow Ag is growing earnings 15% to 20% annually and with recent (and future) acquisitions and perhaps the largest product launch yet on the horizon, that growth looks to be able to grow unimpeded for at least the next several years.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, None

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Poll Shows 73% of Folks Think Starbucks is "Too Expensive"

They needed a poll for that?

Let’s think about it. Let’s assume the coffee is as good as or better than that had at Dunkin Donuts or McDonalds (MCD). Well, if people aren’t going to Starbucks (SBUX) anymore (or are in increasingly fewer numbers) and sales of coffee at the other two are exploding, then it has to be the price.

Here are the survey results:
“76% of American adults say they rarely or never visit one of the shops, and only 14% say they visit occasionally.

A new survey by Rasmussen Reports shows that 73% of Americans say Starbucks coffee is overpriced. Only 6% disagreed and 21% said they were unsure.”

It continued:
“Along with the perception of high prices, only 38 percent of the 1,000 adults polled gave the coffee behemoth a favorable rating, while 27 percent had an unfavorable view of the chain. About one-third of respondents had no opinion.

Younger adults have a more favorable view of Starbucks than older adults. Just under 50 percent of respondents 18 to 29 give the chain high marks, while only 28 percent of seniors shared that view. And those who make more than $100,000 a year view the chain more favorably than those who make less than $20,000 a year, the survey said.”

So, notice one word that was not there? Value. High prices are one thing if you feel like you are getting what you pay for. I do not expect the same service and food at Denny’s as I do at Morton’s. As long as I feel like the service and food were great when I leave Morton’s, I fell like I got my money’s worth. Starbucks problem is people by in large do not feel that way.

The service is non-existent (worse than McDonalds) and the overwhelming majority of folks, by the time they add milk or cream, flavoring and syrup to the coffee, have no ability to ascertain the quality of the bean they are drinking. I will take it a step further and say that unless you are drinking pure coffee or espresso, in 99% of the drinks could be made with the same beans McDonalds and DD uses and no one would be able to tell any difference. If Howard wants to take me up on it, we can arrange a taste testing here in Massachusetts.

Starbucks could then sell the drinks at reasonable prices and finally shut me up.

Now, Howard Schultz, Starbucks’ Chief Snob will look at the results and say “educated people who know better prefer us”. That, Howard may be true. But, you have 14,000 locations. There are not enough $100,000 plus a year folks out there to sustain the growth you need at all those locations. You’ll need to appeal to the “lesser folks” for lack of a better phrase to accomplish what you want. Either that, or you need to admit you need to close another 1,000 plus locations (minimum) to force feed current traffic to existing locations.

Howard has misjudged his market..

Something has to give, right now it is stockholders brokerage accounts…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, none

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Latest Fed Auction Results Show Jump in Rates

This is the largest jump since the auction was established.

Results:
On August 11, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $25 billion in 84-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.754 percent

Total propositions submitted: $54.800 billion
Total propositions accepted: $25.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 2.19

Number of bidders: 64

The jump from the last auction was almost .5%, by far the largest jump.

This will crimp the interest earnings increases banks like Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and JP Morgan (JPM) enjoyed in Q2, unless they are able to pass the increase onto consumers.


Full Fed Release

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long C, WFC, None

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Ackman’s Pershing Files Amended 13D

Bill Ackman has filed an amended 13D this morning for Pershing’s investment in Longs Drug Stores (LDG)

Item 1. Security and Issuer
This Amendment No. 2 (this “Amendment No. 2”) amends and supplements the statement on Schedule 13D, as amended to date (the “Schedule 13D”), by (i) Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“Pershing Square”), (ii) PS Management GP, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“PS Management”), (iii) Pershing Square GP, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Pershing Square GP”), and (iv) William A. Ackman, a citizen of the United States of America (collectively, the “Reporting Persons”), relating to the common stock (the “Common Stock”), of Longs Drug Stores Corporation, a Maryland corporation (the “Issuer”). Unless otherwise defined herein, terms defined in the Schedule 13D shall have such defined meanings in this Amendment No. 2.

As of August 11, 2008, as reflected in this Amendment No. 2, the Reporting Persons are reporting beneficial ownership on an aggregate basis of 3,137,659 shares of Common Stock (approximately 8.8% of the outstanding shares of Common Stock). The Reporting Persons also have economic exposure to approximately 5,296,896 notional shares of Common Stock under certain cash-settled total return swaps (“Swaps”), bringing their total economic exposure to 8,434,555 shares of Common Stock (approximately 23.6% of the outstanding shares of Common Stock).

Item 6. Contracts, Arrangements, Understandings or Relationships with Respect to Securities of the Issuer
Item 6 is hereby supplemented as follows:
In addition to (a) the Common Stock beneficially held by the Reporting Persons and (b) the Swaps previously reported by the Reporting Persons on the Schedule 13D, on August 8, 2008 and August 11, 2008, certain of the Reporting Persons entered into cash-settled total return swap agreements for Pershing Square L.P. (the “PSLP Swaps”) and Pershing Square International, Ltd. (the “PSIL Swaps,” and together with the PSLP Swaps, the “Amendment No. 2 Swaps”). The Amendment No. 2 Swaps constitute economic exposure to approximately 756,000 notional shares of Common Stock, have reference prices ranging from $53.55 to $54.69 and expire on dates ranging from November 30, 2009 through August 31, 2010. Under the terms of the Amendment No. 2 Swaps, (i) the applicable Pershing Square Fund will be obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance of the notional number of shares of Common Stock subject to the applicable Amendment No. 2 Swap as of the expiration date of such Amendment No. 2 Swap, plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty will be obligated to pay to the applicable Pershing Square Fund any positive price performance of the notional number of shares of Common Stock subject to the applicable Amendment No. 2 Swap as of the expiration date of the Swap.

With regard to the PSIL Swaps, Pershing Square International, Ltd. will be entitled to cash payments during the term of the PSIL Swap in lieu of any dividends received by the counterparty on such notional shares of Common Stock. With regard to the PSLP Swaps, at maturity Pershing Square, L.P. will receive a cash payment from the counterparty equal to any dividends received by the counterparty on such notional shares of Common Stock during the term of the PSLP Swaps. All balances will be cash settled at the expiration date of the Amendment No. 2 Swaps. Including the Swaps disclosed on the Schedule 13D and the Amendment No. 2 Swaps, the Pershing Square Funds’ counterparties for their Swaps include entities related to BNP Paribas, Citibank, Credit Suisse and UBS.

The contracts relating to the Amendment No. 2 Swaps do not give the Reporting Persons direct or indirect voting, investment or dispositive control over any securities of the Issuer and do not require the counterparty thereto to acquire, hold, vote or dispose of any securities of the Issuer. Accordingly, the Reporting Persons disclaim any beneficial ownership in securities that may be referenced in such contracts relating to the Amendment No. 2 Swaps or that may be held from time to time by any counterparty to the contracts.

Full SEC Filing

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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David Einhorn on "Value at Risk" (PDF)

This is a great read from Grant’s Spring Investment Conference. Discuss is Lehman(LEH), Carlyle Capital, Allied Capital (ALD), Merrill Lynch (MER).

Download PDF Here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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