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Tweedy, Browne Q2 Letter Released

The Tweedy, Browne Q2 letter has been released. Chris Browne if you remember is the author of the fine book “The Little Book of Value Investing

From the Letter:
“In our funds, it has been financial and media stocks that have accounted for a large part of our poor performance year to date. Even more recession-resistant companies such as our food and beverage holdings have performed poorly, as traders rotate in and out of groups of stocks in response to headline news and Wall Street research reports, which we consider extremely short-term oriented in their perspective. With the exception of a few oil companies in our high dividend fund, we have found precious little value in the high flying energy and basic material stocks which have been the darlings of the market. Strong core holdings such as Nestle (NESN) and Kone (KNEBV), where underlying fundamentals remain very strong and near-term corporate performance has been solid, have also been impacted by investor preference for all things energy and commodity-related. Following this update is a more complete statistical attribution analysis and performance history for each of our funds.

It should come as no surprise that pricing opportunities are surfacing and the discount between market value and intrinsic value is growing in the bulk of our portfolio. Our portfolio, in our view, has rarely been cheaper than it is today. In some instances the valuations seem somewhat anomalistic. For example, over the last several months we have established a position in Swiss Re (SWCEY), the world’s largest reinsurance company. The company at initial purchase was trading at 5 times earnings, 77% of book value, 70% of imbedded value and a 6% dividend yield. Earlier this year, Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett (BRK.A) purchased a 3% position in the company, and has agreed to take on 20% of Swiss Re’s property & casualty business over the next 5 years freeing up reserves for a stock buyback. We have also been buying Telecinco, Spain’s largest television production company. At initial purchase, it was trading at 4 times pretax income (EBIT), and had a 17% dividend yield with net cash on its balance sheet.

Another deeply undervalued current holding is Medikit, a Japanese medical device company, which is currently trading at 1.6 times pre-tax income (EBIT), and has a 2.5% dividend yield, once again with net cash on the balance sheet. While all of our
stocks are not trading at these extreme valuations, they are indicative of some of the incredible bargains we are seeing in equity markets. Unfortunately, great opportunity is invariably accompanied by bad macroeconomics and near-term uncertainty. If the picture were clear, the pricing opportunity would not exist. In times like this, investors must try to steel their nerves and ignore the ever present market pundits who predict stock market collapses at the end of an era. These voices seem to always drown out more reasoned thought in times such as the
present.

As you know, in recent years, we have been less than sanguine about the high valuation levels of public equities which afforded investors very little in the way of a “margin of safety”. We always promised our clients that when we felt it was time to add to their accounts, we would let them know. Well, the time has come, in our estimation, if your measure is buying businesses cheap. While no one can call the tipping point and stocks could indeed have further to fall, at current price levels, we feel we are being presented with unusual opportunities. Carpe diem.


Full Letter

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Oil Prices and Dow Chemical’s Q3

Let’s look at the information gleamed from Dow chemical’s (DOW) Q2’s release and call and do a little projection for Q3.

In the call
the following exchange was had:
Jeffrey Zekauskas – JPMorgan
“Good morning. On average shouldn’t your raw material costs be down sequentially in the third quarter? Natural gas has gone from — I don’t know — $12 to $9 and oil has come from $135 to $125?”

Geoffery E. Merszei – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Member of the Board of Directors
“Yeah Jeff, this is Geoffrey here. Just to take oil, Brent crude average price as of this morning, let’s say, $124, $125. At today’s level it is still higher than our average cost during the first quarter. The average cost in the first quarter was around $122. I’m using crude as a reference point. And we are already towards the end of the first month of one-third of the quarter. So if you use an average rate for the third quarter of let’s say around $125, $126 then you are talking about over $0.5 billion additional cost for the company to absorb.”

It would look like that based on current demand for its products every $3 plus or minus in its cost of oil results in about a $500 million cost increase or decrease.

Dow’s Q2 average was $122 and change and oil now sits at $117. What is also of interest is the price increases announced earlier this summer were only about 40% implemented during Q2. By the time Q3 is finished, they ought to be fully implemented which means revenues ought to post another record quarter assuming no dramatic demand destruction (unlikely).

What does it all mean? Should oil prices remain lower than $122 for the quarter and with the price increases now fully implemented, the 66 cents a share earnings that analysts anticipate are beginning to look as though it is far too low.

Where are we at? July crude averaged $134 and August so far is at $120 and falling. On ought to expect that to fall father as July’s numbers were boosted by the early spike to $145 a barrel and to this point in August we have been below $120 for most of it. Of course one should also assume Dow may be entering into more contracts at lower prices now and that this will reduce the average purchase below just a simple daily average reading.

What if oil stays high? Let’s go with the scenario that oil ends up at the same $122 a barrel for Q3. We still have the implementation of the price increases coming through the system that will boost revenues.

This is a fun exercise but when you look at it, as the year goes by it becomes far less necessary. Dow has essentially traded 50% interest in its oil dependent commodity business to Kuwait for Rohm and Hass (ROH) in its entirety and picked up Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett as an investor to boot. Not a bad deal when you look at it that way.

It is still only 1/2 way through the quarter but I am thinking there are going to be a whole lot of shareholders very happy with the earnings surprise Dow turns in after Q3 is over…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, None

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"Least Trustworthy CEO"

Check out this post from Bary Ritholtz.

It list a poll from Portfolio that readers voted on. Now, what is odd is that the quotes are all the same. Wouldn’t you think they would just stop making performance promises?

The Big Picture

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Monday’s Links

ADM, Tragedy, Whole Foods poll, Gumshoe

Dividend

Wow

– So far my Whole Foods theory is being proven accurate. Please vote

– This is great stuff, he uncovers more junk

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Wells Fargo 10-Q: Good News

Wells Fargo (WFC) filed its 10-Q and there were some very favorable items in it for shareholders.

Results:
We continued to profitably build our franchise in second quarter 2008, at a time when many in our industry have been primarily focused on fixing rather than growing their companies. Despite a $3.0 billion provision for loan losses in the quarter, including a $1.5 billion credit reserve build, we earned a $1.8 billion quarterly profit, generated return on equity of 14.6%, increased Tier 1 capital in the quarter by 32 basis points to 8.24%, and increased the combination of capital and loan loss allowance to 9.7% of average earning assets from 9.1% linked quarter.

Our continued profitable growth is reflected in the growth of our pre-tax pre-provision income, up $1.4 billion, or 34%, from a year ago, driven by a 20% increase in earning assets, a 16% increase in revenue, a 10% increase in noninterest income, record cross-sell of 5.64 products in our retail business and 6.3 products in our commercial business, a 3 basis point increase in the net interest margin to 4.92% (up 23 basis points linked quarter), and an increase in operating leverage, with expenses up only 2% versus 16% revenue growth.

In broad terms, the credit crisis itself has created incremental earnings opportunities for Wells Fargo, largely offsetting our incremental charge-offs from the crisis

Net Interest Income:
Net interest income is the interest earned on debt securities, loans (including yield-related loan fees) and other interest-earning assets minus the interest paid for deposits and long-term and short-term debt. The net interest margin is the average yield on earning assets minus the average interest rate paid for deposits and our other sources of funding. Net interest income and the net interest margin are presented on a taxable-equivalent basis to consistently reflect income from taxable and tax-exempt loans and securities based on a 35% federal statutory tax rate.

Net interest income on a taxable-equivalent basis increased 21% to $6.33 billion in second quarter 2008 from $5.23 billion in second quarter 2007. The increase was driven by 20% earning asset growth combined with an increase in the net interest margin to 4.92%, up 3 basis points from a year ago and up 23 basis points linked quarter. The improvement in the net interest margin reflects our focus on higher risk-adjusted yields on new loans and securities, a decline in funding costs, our disciplined deposit pricing, and the high percentage of checking and transaction accounts in our core deposit mix. For the first half of 2008, growth in net interest income has largely offset the impact of the credit crisis on charge-offs.

Credit Cards:
Card fees increased 14% to $588 million in second quarter 2008 from $517 million in second quarter 2007, due to continued growth in new accounts and higher credit and debit card transaction volume. Purchase volume on these cards was up 13% from a year ago and average card balances were up 30%.

Credit Losses:
The allowance for credit losses, which consists of the allowance for loan losses and the reserve for unfunded credit commitments, is management’s estimate of credit losses inherent in the loan portfolio at the balance sheet date. We assume that our allowance for credit losses as a percentage of charge-offs and nonaccrual loans will change at different points in time based on credit performance, loan mix and collateral values. The detail of the changes in the allowance for credit losses, including charge-offs and recoveries by loan category, is in Note 5 (Loans and Allowance for Credit Losses) to Financial Statements in this Report.

Net charge-offs for second quarter 2008 were $1.5 billion (1.55% of average total loans outstanding, annualized), compared with $1.5 billion (1.60%) for first quarter 2008 and $720 million (0.87%) for second quarter 2007. As previously announced, the Home Equity charge-off policy was changed in second quarter 2008 to provide more time to work with customers to solve their credit problems and keep them in their homes. The policy change had the effect of deferring an estimated $265 million of charge-offs from the second quarter, but did not reduce provision expense in second quarter 2008 since this loss content was included in the $1.5 billion credit reserve build. Total provision expense in second quarter 2008 was $3.0 billion, including a $1.5 billion credit reserve build, primarily for losses in the Home Equity, Wells Fargo Financial real estate, and unsecured consumer portfolios. The $792 million increase in net credit losses from a year ago included $243 million in the real estate 1-4 family junior lien category. Net credit losses in the commercial category (primarily Business Direct) increased $199 million from a year ago.

Because of our responsible lending and risk management practices, we have largely avoided many of the products others in the mortgage industry have offered. We have not offered certain mortgage products such as negative amortizing mortgages or option ARMs. We had minimal ARM reset risk across our owned loan portfolios at June 30, 2008. While our disciplined underwriting standards have resulted in first mortgage delinquencies below industry averages through June 30, 2008, we continually evaluate and modify our credit policies to address unacceptable levels of risk as they are identified. In the past year, for example, we have tightened underwriting standards as we believed appropriate. Home Mortgage closed its nonprime wholesale channel early in third quarter 2007, after closing its nonprime correspondent channel in second quarter 2007. In addition, rates were increased for non-conforming mortgage loans during third quarter 2007 reflecting the reduced liquidity in the capital markets. As a result of these underwriting and policy changes, as well as overall market changes, Home Mortgage has shifted its loan origination production mix to significantly more government and conforming loans than a year ago, when production included a higher level of non-conforming and nonprime loans.

Although credit quality in Wells Fargo Financial’s real estate-secured lending business has deteriorated, we have not experienced the level of credit degradation that many nonprime lenders have because of our disciplined underwriting practices. Wells Fargo Financial has continued its long-standing practice not to use brokers or correspondents in its U.S. debt consolidation business

We do not act as a sponsor for any SIVs. On the investment side of this business, we operate within disciplined credit standards and regularly monitor and manage our securities portfolios. We have not participated in the underwriting of any of the large leveraged buyouts that were “covenant lite,” and we have minimal direct exposure to hedge funds. Similarly, we have not made a market in subprime securities.

Long story short? Wells Fargo is in fantastic shape. Does that mean there will not be bumps in the road? Clearly if the economy continues to deteriorate, things will fall. When you look around the financial sector, I can’t find anyone making the kinds or statements (results based ones, not “anticipated results” promises) like Wells Fargo. Citi (C), Wachovia (WB), Washington Mutual (WM) are all repairing rather than growing. Even JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) while not suffering can’t claim the same quality of assets as Wells.


Full 10-Q Filing:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, WB, C, None

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Boone Pickens Energy Plan: Update

Boone discusses oil, gas, wind, alternatives and natural gas. To date this is the best plan I have seen as it uses all sources and is domestic.

Pt. 1

Pt. 2

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Arthur Laffer on Obama Tax Plan

Before folks get all antsy and outraged saying Laffer is a “Republican” watch the video and the kudos he gives Bill Clinton.

The skinny is that Obama’s tax plans are going to be a disaster if implemented..

Video:

While on the politics subject. Had a conversation the other day about voters. I think it is pretty clear that the Midwest and parts of the South will and usually do decide who is President. We know how NY, Mass and Cal. will vote (blue) and much of the deep South will (RED).

If all that is true, then doesn’t that make the folks in the Midwest the most intellectually honest people out there? Your party cannot always run the guy who should be President, if you are being honest and voting for who you truly feel is the best candidate, then your vote ought to go back and forth. Right?

I mean most people will tell you “I vote for the best person” yet history tells us that is not true. People vote along party lines most often, except for Middle America as they are most often the swing States.

For the record, my votes, Bush 1, Bush 1, Clinton (over Dole), Bush 2, Bush 2 and will vote for McCain. Don’t know what that makes me…

Just some thoughts…

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Schultz’ Ego Will Hurt Starbuck Shareholders

“Swill” is how Howard Schultz described the coffee at both McDonalds (MCD) and Dunkin Donuts in a recent interview. Swill?

Now, I know most CEO’s think their product is better, but swill Howard? Perhaps the “snobby attitude” found in Starbucks (SBUX) by many people who do not frequent it starts at the top down? I was shocked when I first read it and then as I let is sink in, it did make things over the last year or so make more sense. Perhaps shareholders at McDonalds are snickering? After all, their swill selling company’s stock sits at an all-time high while Howard’s sits at 2003 prices and is now reporting quarterly losses. More on that later.

Schultz still thinks of Starbucks as a niche coffee house catering to coffee aficionados. Problem, it is not. 14,000 locations officially make is a chain that needs to appeal to the Average Joe if it is going to continue to grow.

Also from the article:
“Only last year, Schultz told talk-show host Charlie Rose that Starbucks was “fairly recession-proof.” The economy had dipped before, but Starbucks had always managed to be what Schultz likes to call an affordable luxury.”

Contrast this to what Schultz said on the latest earnings call:
“But clearly we are facing a headwind in terms of the economy that’s very, very difficult to kind of crack through…..But until the economy significantly improves, we’re just trying to do what we can to get through this storm and be much stronger when it improves.”

Schultz blamed the economy at least a dozen times during both the prepared remarks and the Q&A. So, Schultz was very, very wrong last year in his assumption of the necessity Starbucks coffee held with consumers and he is very,very wrong today when he says in response to the following question:

John Ivankoe – J.P. Morgan: “Okay, fair enough. And secondly, and a little bit of a follow-up on Jeff’s question; he asked a question on pricing for 2009 and what I would like Howard to address, if possible, is the comments on value promotions in the fiscal first quarter, a focus on value and exactly what that may entail. I mean, whether it would be actually advertising price points or discounting or combos — if you could just give us a sense of where the brand may be heading over the next couple of months.”

Howard Schultz: “We have no intention of doing things that would dilute the integrity of the premium position that Starbucks occupies, and what I mean by that specifically is we are not going to go down the fast food lane and do things that are what I believe not in the interest of, long-term interest of the value of the brand and the experience.”

Schultz is confusing price and quality. A cheaper cup of coffee or more promotion at Starbucks does not mean “worse”. Only “more affordable”. I have been pounding this point for 17 months now. Coffee, for the majority of people is a commodity. When you have as many locations as Starbucks, the tastes and preference of the majority are what matter. Price and value rule in commodity businesses.

Schultz then does something that seems a bit either hypocritical or desperate. Starbucks announced they will offer any iced coffee for $2 after 2pm. Even this though was done the wrong way. It is only available to people who bought coffee that morning and who have a receipt. Just do it without all the hassle guys.

So, are we not doing promotions or are we? Perhaps things are still deteriorating and folks in Seattle are grasping at anything to get folks to walk trough the door?

Far from “cheapening the brand” Schultz has done worse, he will really anger customers who have lost their receipt. Conditional discounts like this only ever create headaches.

Contrast this to previously mentioned McDonald’s (MCD) shareholders whose stock sits at an all-time high today after quarter after quarter of growth. McDonalds cannot credit enough their “breakfast” offerings. The translation for that is “coffee”. People are making the switch and now that they will soon be able to get a cappuccino and espresso through the drive-through, expect further defection to the Golden Arches from the Green Mermaid.

Now, of course the “coffee aficionados” will not defect. But, there are not enough of them to keep 14,000 locations growing and the guy or gal in the middle will go for the more affordable and to them, equally as good offering.

Schultz refuses to see what his company has become, a coffee chain. Until he does and enables it to behave like one, shareholder will continue to suffer.

Far from needing Schultz to bring Starbucks back to its glory, what it needs is a total outsider willing to shake things up and who does not have such an emotional stubbornness to a singular direction despite all evidence as to its continued success.

Here is the interview on Conde’ Nast Portfolio

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Weekend Reading

Opportunites, Trades, Whitman, Shipping

– Annello has some thoughts

– Cullen makes some moves

Buy fear

– Free for school

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Fairholme Files 13G in Sears Holdings, Increases Ownership

Fairholme’s Bruce Berkowitz now increased his holdings to 12.2% of Sears Holdings (SHLD) stock


From the filing
:

Provide the following information regarding the aggregate number and
percentage of the class of securities of the issuer identified in Item 1. 16,110,090 (12.2%) Common Shares of Sears Holdings Corporation are owned, in the aggregate, by various investment vehicles managed by Fairholme Capital
Management, L.L.C. (“FCM”)of which 12,233,871 shares are owned by Fairholme
Funds, Inc. Because Mr. Berkowitz, in his capacity as the Managing Member of FCM
or as President of Fairholme Funds, Inc., has voting or dispositive power over
all shares beneficially owned by FCM, he is deemed to have beneficial ownership
of all such shares so reported herein.

While the advisory relationship causes attribution to Bruce Berkowitz, Fairholme
Funds, Inc. or FCM of certain indicia of beneficial ownership for the limited
purpose of this Schedule 13G, Bruce Berkowitz, Fairholme Funds, Inc. and FCM
hereby disclaim ownership of these shares for purposes of interpretations under
the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, or for any other purpose, except
to the extent of their pecuniary interest.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD

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The Week’s Best at VIN

Here are the top stories for the week at Value Investing News

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Memo to MBIA: Don’t Get Carried Away

MBIA (MBI) is considering suing Pershing Square and Bill Ackman. I think the last thing MBIA want to so is get into a “whose statements were more truthful” pissing contest with Ackman.

Bloomberg Reports
“MBIA Inc. said it may sue Bill Ackman, striking back against the hedge fund manager who waged a six-year campaign against the bond insurer and said this year that the company may be insolvent.

MBIA is “assessing all our options, including litigation” against Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP, Chief Executive Officer Jay Brown said on a conference call today after the Armonk, New York-based company reported a $1.7 billion profit. Ackman, in an e-mail, said he stands by his comments.

Brown’s decision to consider legal action escalates a feud that began when Ackman wrote a 2002 report criticizing MBIA’s use of credit-default swaps to guarantee debt. Ackman has appeared before Congress and written letters to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, at the same time betting against the stock.”

Ackman in the article said “Ackman, 42, said in his e-mail that “we continue to believe that MBIA is insolvent” under one of two tests in state insurance law. The test relies on whether an insurer can afford to reinsure its liabilities in the current market. MBIA appears solvent under the other test, Ackman wrote, based on statutory filings which rely on management predictions of future losses, though he called those estimates “understated.”

Here is the thing. It looks as though MBIA and Ambac (ABK) have avoided BK for the near future. It was done in no small part from help from NY Insurance Commissioner Eric Dinallo’s constant assurances on TV the insurers were in fact solvent and his work behind the scenes. Does anyone really think that if Ackman is sued he will not call for all conversations and emails between the bond insurers and the Commissioners office to be made public?

Do we really think Dinallo wants that to happen?

Ackman has been right on MBIA up until this point. It appears MBIA may have escaped the worse, perhaps because folks grew tired of the story and moved on the bigger fish (Fannie (FNM) and Freddie(FRE)).

One would think that the last things either insurer want is a court of law going over their books line by line and forcing them to disclose everything to the world. They can’t want that and I get the feeling Ackman would welcome the chance.

Sun Tzu in the “Art of War” said that many times it is better to “retreat in order to survive to do battle another day” (paraphrase).

This is one of those times….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Davis Funds Files 13D/A in Harley Davidson

The Davis Select Advisers Fund has files a 13D/A with the SEC.

In the filing they disclose they now own over 23 million shares of Harley Davidson (HOG) or 10.07% of the outstanding total.

View full filing here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Hog

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Friday’s Links

Forgotten, Gas, Merrill, Race

– How is this possible?

Cost breakdown

More Thain

– “content of their character, not the color of their skin” unless we can use the color of our skin to win……then….well, screw MLK

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Fir Tree Value Takes 5% Stake in Ambac

In a just released SEC filing Fire Tree Value has announced it has 5.5% of Ambac’s (ABK) stock .

Full Filing

Ownership.
(a)
Fir Tree Value, Fir Tree Capital Opportunity, and Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity are the beneficial owners of 11,122,050 shares of Common Stock (6,885,250 of which are shares of Common Stock held by Fir Tree Value and 4,236,800 of which are shares of Common Stock purchasable upon the exercise of American-style call options held by Fir Tree Value), 2,806,950 shares of Common Stock (1,591,750 of which are shares of Common Stock held by Fir Tree Capital Opportunity and 1,215,200 of which are shares of Common Stock purchasable upon the exercise of American-style call options held by Fir Tree Capital Opportunity), and 1,351,100 shares of Common Stock (343,000 of which are shares of Common Stock held by Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity and 1,008,100 of which are shares of Common Stock purchasable upon the exercise of American-style call options held by Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity), respectively. Fir Tree may be deemed to beneficially own the shares of Common Stock held by Fir Tree Value, Fir Tree Capital Opportunity, and Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity as a result of being the investment manager of Fir Tree Value, Fir Tree Capital Opportunity, and Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity.

7

(b)
Fir Tree Value, Fir Tree Capital Opportunity, and Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity are the beneficial owners of 3.9%, 1.0%, and 0.5%, respectively, of the outstanding shares of Common Stock. Collectively, the Reporting Persons beneficially own 15,280,100 shares of Common Stock which represent 5.3% of the shares of Common Stock outstanding, which such percentage is determined by dividing (i) (a) the 8,820,000 shares of Common Stock beneficially owned by Fir Tree Value, Fir Tree Capital Opportunity, and Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity plus (b) the 6,460,100 shares of Common Stock purchasable upon the exercise of American-style options held by Fir Tree Value, Fir Tree Capital Opportunity, and Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity by (ii) 286,833,756, the number of shares of Common Stock issued and outstanding as of May 5, 2008, as reported in the Issuer’s 10-Q filed on May 12, 2008.

(c)
Fir Tree Value may direct the vote and disposition of 11,122,050 shares of Common Stock. Fir Tree Capital Opportunity may direct the vote and disposition of 2,806,950 shares of Common Stock. Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity may direct the vote and disposition of 1,351,100 shares of Common Stock. Fir Tree has been granted investment discretion over the Common Stock held by Fir Tree Value, Fir Tree Capital Opportunity, and Fir Tree Mortgage Opportunity.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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