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Latest Fed Auction Results Show Jump in Rates

This is the largest jump since the auction was established.

Results:
On August 11, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $25 billion in 84-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.754 percent

Total propositions submitted: $54.800 billion
Total propositions accepted: $25.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 2.19

Number of bidders: 64

The jump from the last auction was almost .5%, by far the largest jump.

This will crimp the interest earnings increases banks like Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC) and JP Morgan (JPM) enjoyed in Q2, unless they are able to pass the increase onto consumers.


Full Fed Release

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long C, WFC, None

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Ackman’s Pershing Files Amended 13D

Bill Ackman has filed an amended 13D this morning for Pershing’s investment in Longs Drug Stores (LDG)

Item 1. Security and Issuer
This Amendment No. 2 (this “Amendment No. 2”) amends and supplements the statement on Schedule 13D, as amended to date (the “Schedule 13D”), by (i) Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (“Pershing Square”), (ii) PS Management GP, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“PS Management”), (iii) Pershing Square GP, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Pershing Square GP”), and (iv) William A. Ackman, a citizen of the United States of America (collectively, the “Reporting Persons”), relating to the common stock (the “Common Stock”), of Longs Drug Stores Corporation, a Maryland corporation (the “Issuer”). Unless otherwise defined herein, terms defined in the Schedule 13D shall have such defined meanings in this Amendment No. 2.

As of August 11, 2008, as reflected in this Amendment No. 2, the Reporting Persons are reporting beneficial ownership on an aggregate basis of 3,137,659 shares of Common Stock (approximately 8.8% of the outstanding shares of Common Stock). The Reporting Persons also have economic exposure to approximately 5,296,896 notional shares of Common Stock under certain cash-settled total return swaps (“Swaps”), bringing their total economic exposure to 8,434,555 shares of Common Stock (approximately 23.6% of the outstanding shares of Common Stock).

Item 6. Contracts, Arrangements, Understandings or Relationships with Respect to Securities of the Issuer
Item 6 is hereby supplemented as follows:
In addition to (a) the Common Stock beneficially held by the Reporting Persons and (b) the Swaps previously reported by the Reporting Persons on the Schedule 13D, on August 8, 2008 and August 11, 2008, certain of the Reporting Persons entered into cash-settled total return swap agreements for Pershing Square L.P. (the “PSLP Swaps”) and Pershing Square International, Ltd. (the “PSIL Swaps,” and together with the PSLP Swaps, the “Amendment No. 2 Swaps”). The Amendment No. 2 Swaps constitute economic exposure to approximately 756,000 notional shares of Common Stock, have reference prices ranging from $53.55 to $54.69 and expire on dates ranging from November 30, 2009 through August 31, 2010. Under the terms of the Amendment No. 2 Swaps, (i) the applicable Pershing Square Fund will be obligated to pay to the counterparty any negative price performance of the notional number of shares of Common Stock subject to the applicable Amendment No. 2 Swap as of the expiration date of such Amendment No. 2 Swap, plus interest, and (ii) the counterparty will be obligated to pay to the applicable Pershing Square Fund any positive price performance of the notional number of shares of Common Stock subject to the applicable Amendment No. 2 Swap as of the expiration date of the Swap.

With regard to the PSIL Swaps, Pershing Square International, Ltd. will be entitled to cash payments during the term of the PSIL Swap in lieu of any dividends received by the counterparty on such notional shares of Common Stock. With regard to the PSLP Swaps, at maturity Pershing Square, L.P. will receive a cash payment from the counterparty equal to any dividends received by the counterparty on such notional shares of Common Stock during the term of the PSLP Swaps. All balances will be cash settled at the expiration date of the Amendment No. 2 Swaps. Including the Swaps disclosed on the Schedule 13D and the Amendment No. 2 Swaps, the Pershing Square Funds’ counterparties for their Swaps include entities related to BNP Paribas, Citibank, Credit Suisse and UBS.

The contracts relating to the Amendment No. 2 Swaps do not give the Reporting Persons direct or indirect voting, investment or dispositive control over any securities of the Issuer and do not require the counterparty thereto to acquire, hold, vote or dispose of any securities of the Issuer. Accordingly, the Reporting Persons disclaim any beneficial ownership in securities that may be referenced in such contracts relating to the Amendment No. 2 Swaps or that may be held from time to time by any counterparty to the contracts.

Full SEC Filing

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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David Einhorn on "Value at Risk" (PDF)

This is a great read from Grant’s Spring Investment Conference. Discuss is Lehman(LEH), Carlyle Capital, Allied Capital (ALD), Merrill Lynch (MER).

Download PDF Here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Tuesday’s Links

MBIA, Fat Pitch, Primus, Steve & Barry, Texas Gov.

– Felix Salmon has more thoughts on MBIA and Ackman

– Check out George’s new look

– Cullen nailed this one

– Didn’t think Eddie was interested

– Dope

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Biglari’s Quarter at Steak N Shake in the Books

Check out this post…

Jeff Annello has a good post over at Circle of Competence regarding Sardar Biglari’s efforts at running the company. So far so good.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Legg Mason is now Freddie Mac’s largest shareholder

Barrons reported Legg Mason’s 12.4% stake in Freddie Mac.

“On Monday Legg Mason (LM) disclosed it now owns 79,880,998 shares of Freddie Mac, or a 12.4% stake. At the end of the first quarter, Legg Mason owned 50,244,068 shares of the government-sponsored finance giant.”

Time will be Bill Miller’s ultimate judge. I haven’t written him off yet.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None (yet)

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Ackman Before Congress on MBIA

Remember when Ackman spoke before Congress on both MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK)? Seems to me he was on the ball then..


Mr William A Ackman – Get more Legal Forms

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Obama and Taxes on the "Middle Class"

Don Luskin makes some points today that cutting tax A while phasing out credit B can result in an actual tax increase. Again, politics will take matter more in investing now that the policies are becoming more defined.

“Obama’s give-and-take tax policy results in marginal tax rates of 34 percent to 39 percent in the $31,000 to $45,000 income range for this family. That’s an increase of 13 percentage points or more from the current rates.

What accounts for the higher rates? First, Obama expands the maximum child and dependent care credit for families with one young child from $1,050 to $1,500 and phases down the credit over a longer income range, from $30,000 to $58,000. Throughout this income range, the credit is phasing out at a rate of $30 per $1,000 of income, thus raising the effective tax rate by 3 percentage points. Obama also makes certain credits refundable, which introduces a tax penalty of 10 percent or 15 percent, depending on the income bracket.

While Obama has publicly embraced a tax rate of 40 percent for couples earning over $350,000, his tax policies would result in a staggering 45 percent effective marginal rate in the $110,000 to $120,000 income range for this family. That is 11 percentage points higher than under current law.”

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Tweedy, Browne Q2 Letter Released

The Tweedy, Browne Q2 letter has been released. Chris Browne if you remember is the author of the fine book “The Little Book of Value Investing”

From the Letter:
“In our funds, it has been financial and media stocks that have accounted for a large part of our poor performance year to date. Even more recession-resistant companies such as our food and beverage holdings have performed poorly, as traders rotate in and out of groups of stocks in response to headline news and Wall Street research reports, which we consider extremely short-term oriented in their perspective. With the exception of a few oil companies in our high dividend fund, we have found precious little value in the high flying energy and basic material stocks which have been the darlings of the market. Strong core holdings such as Nestle (NESN) and Kone (KNEBV), where underlying fundamentals remain very strong and near-term corporate performance has been solid, have also been impacted by investor preference for all things energy and commodity-related. Following this update is a more complete statistical attribution analysis and performance history for each of our funds.

It should come as no surprise that pricing opportunities are surfacing and the discount between market value and intrinsic value is growing in the bulk of our portfolio. Our portfolio, in our view, has rarely been cheaper than it is today. In some instances the valuations seem somewhat anomalistic. For example, over the last several months we have established a position in Swiss Re (SWCEY), the world’s largest reinsurance company. The company at initial purchase was trading at 5 times earnings, 77% of book value, 70% of imbedded value and a 6% dividend yield. Earlier this year, Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett (BRK.A) purchased a 3% position in the company, and has agreed to take on 20% of Swiss Re’s property & casualty business over the next 5 years freeing up reserves for a stock buyback. We have also been buying Telecinco, Spain’s largest television production company. At initial purchase, it was trading at 4 times pretax income (EBIT), and had a 17% dividend yield with net cash on its balance sheet.

Another deeply undervalued current holding is Medikit, a Japanese medical device company, which is currently trading at 1.6 times pre-tax income (EBIT), and has a 2.5% dividend yield, once again with net cash on the balance sheet. While all of our
stocks are not trading at these extreme valuations, they are indicative of some of the incredible bargains we are seeing in equity markets. Unfortunately, great opportunity is invariably accompanied by bad macroeconomics and near-term uncertainty. If the picture were clear, the pricing opportunity would not exist. In times like this, investors must try to steel their nerves and ignore the ever present market pundits who predict stock market collapses at the end of an era. These voices seem to always drown out more reasoned thought in times such as the
present.

As you know, in recent years, we have been less than sanguine about the high valuation levels of public equities which afforded investors very little in the way of a “margin of safety”. We always promised our clients that when we felt it was time to add to their accounts, we would let them know. Well, the time has come, in our estimation, if your measure is buying businesses cheap. While no one can call the tipping point and stocks could indeed have further to fall, at current price levels, we feel we are being presented with unusual opportunities. Carpe diem.


Full Letter

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Oil Prices and Dow Chemical’s Q3

Let’s look at the information gleamed from Dow chemical’s (DOW) Q2’s release and call and do a little projection for Q3.

In the call
the following exchange was had:
Jeffrey Zekauskas – JPMorgan
“Good morning. On average shouldn’t your raw material costs be down sequentially in the third quarter? Natural gas has gone from — I don’t know — $12 to $9 and oil has come from $135 to $125?”

Geoffery E. Merszei – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Member of the Board of Directors
“Yeah Jeff, this is Geoffrey here. Just to take oil, Brent crude average price as of this morning, let’s say, $124, $125. At today’s level it is still higher than our average cost during the first quarter. The average cost in the first quarter was around $122. I’m using crude as a reference point. And we are already towards the end of the first month of one-third of the quarter. So if you use an average rate for the third quarter of let’s say around $125, $126 then you are talking about over $0.5 billion additional cost for the company to absorb.”

It would look like that based on current demand for its products every $3 plus or minus in its cost of oil results in about a $500 million cost increase or decrease.

Dow’s Q2 average was $122 and change and oil now sits at $117. What is also of interest is the price increases announced earlier this summer were only about 40% implemented during Q2. By the time Q3 is finished, they ought to be fully implemented which means revenues ought to post another record quarter assuming no dramatic demand destruction (unlikely).

What does it all mean? Should oil prices remain lower than $122 for the quarter and with the price increases now fully implemented, the 66 cents a share earnings that analysts anticipate are beginning to look as though it is far too low.

Where are we at? July crude averaged $134 and August so far is at $120 and falling. On ought to expect that to fall father as July’s numbers were boosted by the early spike to $145 a barrel and to this point in August we have been below $120 for most of it. Of course one should also assume Dow may be entering into more contracts at lower prices now and that this will reduce the average purchase below just a simple daily average reading.

What if oil stays high? Let’s go with the scenario that oil ends up at the same $122 a barrel for Q3. We still have the implementation of the price increases coming through the system that will boost revenues.

This is a fun exercise but when you look at it, as the year goes by it becomes far less necessary. Dow has essentially traded 50% interest in its oil dependent commodity business to Kuwait for Rohm and Hass (ROH) in its entirety and picked up Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett as an investor to boot. Not a bad deal when you look at it that way.

It is still only 1/2 way through the quarter but I am thinking there are going to be a whole lot of shareholders very happy with the earnings surprise Dow turns in after Q3 is over…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, None

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"Least Trustworthy CEO"

Check out this post from Bary Ritholtz.

It list a poll from Portfolio that readers voted on. Now, what is odd is that the quotes are all the same. Wouldn’t you think they would just stop making performance promises?

The Big Picture

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Monday’s Links

ADM, Tragedy, Whole Foods poll, Gumshoe

– Dividend

– Wow

– So far my Whole Foods theory is being proven accurate. Please vote

– This is great stuff, he uncovers more junk

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Wells Fargo 10-Q: Good News

Wells Fargo (WFC) filed its 10-Q and there were some very favorable items in it for shareholders.

Results:
We continued to profitably build our franchise in second quarter 2008, at a time when many in our industry have been primarily focused on fixing rather than growing their companies. Despite a $3.0 billion provision for loan losses in the quarter, including a $1.5 billion credit reserve build, we earned a $1.8 billion quarterly profit, generated return on equity of 14.6%, increased Tier 1 capital in the quarter by 32 basis points to 8.24%, and increased the combination of capital and loan loss allowance to 9.7% of average earning assets from 9.1% linked quarter.

Our continued profitable growth is reflected in the growth of our pre-tax pre-provision income, up $1.4 billion, or 34%, from a year ago, driven by a 20% increase in earning assets, a 16% increase in revenue, a 10% increase in noninterest income, record cross-sell of 5.64 products in our retail business and 6.3 products in our commercial business, a 3 basis point increase in the net interest margin to 4.92% (up 23 basis points linked quarter), and an increase in operating leverage, with expenses up only 2% versus 16% revenue growth.

In broad terms, the credit crisis itself has created incremental earnings opportunities for Wells Fargo, largely offsetting our incremental charge-offs from the crisis

Net Interest Income:
Net interest income is the interest earned on debt securities, loans (including yield-related loan fees) and other interest-earning assets minus the interest paid for deposits and long-term and short-term debt. The net interest margin is the average yield on earning assets minus the average interest rate paid for deposits and our other sources of funding. Net interest income and the net interest margin are presented on a taxable-equivalent basis to consistently reflect income from taxable and tax-exempt loans and securities based on a 35% federal statutory tax rate.

Net interest income on a taxable-equivalent basis increased 21% to $6.33 billion in second quarter 2008 from $5.23 billion in second quarter 2007. The increase was driven by 20% earning asset growth combined with an increase in the net interest margin to 4.92%, up 3 basis points from a year ago and up 23 basis points linked quarter. The improvement in the net interest margin reflects our focus on higher risk-adjusted yields on new loans and securities, a decline in funding costs, our disciplined deposit pricing, and the high percentage of checking and transaction accounts in our core deposit mix. For the first half of 2008, growth in net interest income has largely offset the impact of the credit crisis on charge-offs.

Credit Cards:
Card fees increased 14% to $588 million in second quarter 2008 from $517 million in second quarter 2007, due to continued growth in new accounts and higher credit and debit card transaction volume. Purchase volume on these cards was up 13% from a year ago and average card balances were up 30%.

Credit Losses:
The allowance for credit losses, which consists of the allowance for loan losses and the reserve for unfunded credit commitments, is management’s estimate of credit losses inherent in the loan portfolio at the balance sheet date. We assume that our allowance for credit losses as a percentage of charge-offs and nonaccrual loans will change at different points in time based on credit performance, loan mix and collateral values. The detail of the changes in the allowance for credit losses, including charge-offs and recoveries by loan category, is in Note 5 (Loans and Allowance for Credit Losses) to Financial Statements in this Report.

Net charge-offs for second quarter 2008 were $1.5 billion (1.55% of average total loans outstanding, annualized), compared with $1.5 billion (1.60%) for first quarter 2008 and $720 million (0.87%) for second quarter 2007. As previously announced, the Home Equity charge-off policy was changed in second quarter 2008 to provide more time to work with customers to solve their credit problems and keep them in their homes. The policy change had the effect of deferring an estimated $265 million of charge-offs from the second quarter, but did not reduce provision expense in second quarter 2008 since this loss content was included in the $1.5 billion credit reserve build. Total provision expense in second quarter 2008 was $3.0 billion, including a $1.5 billion credit reserve build, primarily for losses in the Home Equity, Wells Fargo Financial real estate, and unsecured consumer portfolios. The $792 million increase in net credit losses from a year ago included $243 million in the real estate 1-4 family junior lien category. Net credit losses in the commercial category (primarily Business Direct) increased $199 million from a year ago.

Because of our responsible lending and risk management practices, we have largely avoided many of the products others in the mortgage industry have offered. We have not offered certain mortgage products such as negative amortizing mortgages or option ARMs. We had minimal ARM reset risk across our owned loan portfolios at June 30, 2008. While our disciplined underwriting standards have resulted in first mortgage delinquencies below industry averages through June 30, 2008, we continually evaluate and modify our credit policies to address unacceptable levels of risk as they are identified. In the past year, for example, we have tightened underwriting standards as we believed appropriate. Home Mortgage closed its nonprime wholesale channel early in third quarter 2007, after closing its nonprime correspondent channel in second quarter 2007. In addition, rates were increased for non-conforming mortgage loans during third quarter 2007 reflecting the reduced liquidity in the capital markets. As a result of these underwriting and policy changes, as well as overall market changes, Home Mortgage has shifted its loan origination production mix to significantly more government and conforming loans than a year ago, when production included a higher level of non-conforming and nonprime loans.

Although credit quality in Wells Fargo Financial’s real estate-secured lending business has deteriorated, we have not experienced the level of credit degradation that many nonprime lenders have because of our disciplined underwriting practices. Wells Fargo Financial has continued its long-standing practice not to use brokers or correspondents in its U.S. debt consolidation business

We do not act as a sponsor for any SIVs. On the investment side of this business, we operate within disciplined credit standards and regularly monitor and manage our securities portfolios. We have not participated in the underwriting of any of the large leveraged buyouts that were “covenant lite,” and we have minimal direct exposure to hedge funds. Similarly, we have not made a market in subprime securities.

Long story short? Wells Fargo is in fantastic shape. Does that mean there will not be bumps in the road? Clearly if the economy continues to deteriorate, things will fall. When you look around the financial sector, I can’t find anyone making the kinds or statements (results based ones, not “anticipated results” promises) like Wells Fargo. Citi (C), Wachovia (WB), Washington Mutual (WM) are all repairing rather than growing. Even JP Morgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) while not suffering can’t claim the same quality of assets as Wells.


Full 10-Q Filing:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, WB, C, None

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Boone Pickens Energy Plan: Update

Boone discusses oil, gas, wind, alternatives and natural gas. To date this is the best plan I have seen as it uses all sources and is domestic.

Pt. 1

Pt. 2

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Arthur Laffer on Obama Tax Plan

Before folks get all antsy and outraged saying Laffer is a “Republican” watch the video and the kudos he gives Bill Clinton.

The skinny is that Obama’s tax plans are going to be a disaster if implemented..

Video:

While on the politics subject. Had a conversation the other day about voters. I think it is pretty clear that the Midwest and parts of the South will and usually do decide who is President. We know how NY, Mass and Cal. will vote (blue) and much of the deep South will (RED).

If all that is true, then doesn’t that make the folks in the Midwest the most intellectually honest people out there? Your party cannot always run the guy who should be President, if you are being honest and voting for who you truly feel is the best candidate, then your vote ought to go back and forth. Right?

I mean most people will tell you “I vote for the best person” yet history tells us that is not true. People vote along party lines most often, except for Middle America as they are most often the swing States.

For the record, my votes, Bush 1, Bush 1, Clinton (over Dole), Bush 2, Bush 2 and will vote for McCain. Don’t know what that makes me…

Just some thoughts…

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