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Sherwin Williams Call Notables

Some interesting thoughts on the earnings call last week

An interesting back and forth regarding Dow (DOW) and Rohm & Hass (ROH)

Jeff Zekauskas – J.P. Morgan
“I don’t know if you noticed, but there’s some possible consolidation among your acrylic suppliers.”

Christopher M. Connor
“Wow, we hadn’t heard.”

Jeff Zekauskas – J.P. Morgan
“What do you make of that? And do you think that that — you know, is that neutral for Sherwin or negative or positive?”

Christopher M. Connor
“Well, time will tell. I guess I would comment on Dow and Roman Haus that both of these companies have had longstanding relationships with Sherwin-Williams. They are important suppliers to us. They’ve been very good companies to deal with and we expect that that relationship will continue and time will tell whether this is a positive, neutral, or negative — too early to make that call.”

Jeff Zekauskas – J.P. Morgan
“Would you have any interest in integrating into acrylics?”

Christopher M. Connor
“Again, too early to make that call.”

The follow up question ought to have been “any thoughts on becoming part of Dow Chemical?”

On Domestic and International Acquisitions:
Donald Carson – Merrill Lynch
“Okay, and then a capital structure question — you said you haven’t really changed your view yet post the successful resolution of the pigment litigation to lever up a bit more. Is that partly because you are trying to keep your powder dry for acquisitions? And what is the acquisition environment? Are some of the smaller companies still a little shell-shocked about the environment and not yet willing to consider selling?”

Christopher M. Connor
“On your first point, you are absolutely correct. We want to keep the powder dry. We do think — we think we — and it goes to your second point; we think that eventually there might be some real nice assets here. We’re continuing to look at it but I don’t think the owners of these businesses has really changed. I think that we’ll see how they feel over the next six months and year, but we continue to push.”

Donald Carson – Merrill Lynch
“Okay, and what’s the backlog like on international acquisitions? Is there anymore progress there?”

Christopher M. Connor
“There’s some interesting properties out there right now. To Sean’s point, a little bit more activity there than domestically, given a more robust market and willingness to sell more of the — on an up trend. And we don’t comment much more beyond that in terms of what we are seeing or what we are doing.”

Look for Sherwin to now resume an active acquisition strategy that the lead paint specter has all but vanquished. They have weathered the housing storm to this point because of them and will come through this a far stronger compnay than when they went it.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW, Dow, none

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Wednesday's Links

Einhorn, Partners, SEC, Buying

More pain?

– Hey Monsanto (MON), isn’t SmartStax a partnership with Dow Chemical (DOW)? You’d never know it from their earnings call.

More madness

– Somebody is getting smart.

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Wednesday’s Links

Einhorn, Partners, SEC, Buying

More pain?

– Hey Monsanto (MON), isn’t SmartStax a partnership with Dow Chemical (DOW)? You’d never know it from their earnings call.

More madness

– Somebody is getting smart.

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Starbucks Earnings……Who Cares?

so, Starbucks (SBUX) reports later today……should we expect anything good? That depends.

Estimates are for 15 cents a share, below the 19 posted last year. Starbucks will miss that. 600 locations closed are not enough and now we have International locations, once the “future earnings growth driver” being shuttered.

In addition to those losing their jobs at the 600 locations being closed, 1,000 people just got notice they are being allowed to “pursue other opportunities“. There will be more. Schultz said the problems in Australia “are unique” and will leave 23 stores there open.

The COO position is being eliminated and Internationl President Jim Alling has left the company and Martin Coles is the new President of Starbucks Coffee International.

How is any of this “transforming the brand”? Isn’t this what we have been hearing?

It seems to me like Howard is running around out there chopping heads. Here is what is happening. this quarter is going to be abysmal. These moves will allow Howard to say on the earnings call, “recent actions will save us “x” per year”. This will make it look like things are going to get better. Howard will also take the charges this quarter so as to hide the terrible operating performance he will turn in. It will be a convoluted earnings release in which the losses will be made to look like the results of “one time charges”.

Starbucks has been less than forthcoming with investors up until this point, no reason to expect anything else now.

Now if Howard could just find a way to get people to stop leaving him for McDonald’s (MCD) and Dunkin’ Donuts, that would be something.

Oh yea, the “that depends” at the beginning? The good news would be of you are a short….wish I was..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MCD, None

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The Sullivan Boys Meet John McCain

Rainy day on vacation last week…….you just cannot sit inside, if you go out, you’ll never know what will end up happening…..Pretty cool…

Mine are in the front…

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Owens Corning to Double Russian Insulation Production

Looks like the St. Gobian deal will be paying off in spades for Owens Corning (OC). Owens acquired the Gous-Khrustalny, Russia, production facility as part of its 2007 acquisition of Saint-Gobain’s composites businesses.

OC announced tha
t it will more than double the production capacity of its glass fiber composites facility in Gous-Khrustalny, Russia, to meet growing global demand.

“This investment will serve existing customer growth in Russia and throughout Europe and the Middle East,” said Mike Thaman, chairman and chief executive officer. “The expansion leverages our 2007 acquisition of the Saint-Gobain composite businesses by building out our platform in Russia to take advantage of strong market demand.”

The expanded facility in Russia will produce a complete range of composite products using Owens Corning’s best technology for glass fiber production and fabrication. It will incorporate the company’s patented Advantex® and advanced glass-melting technology platforms that bring world-class energy efficiency and emissions control in manufacturing, while providing customers with unique product benefits including corrosion resistance and high strength.

“Our additional capacity in Russia will create meaningful value for our customers,” said Chuck Dana, president of Composite Solutions. “The expanded facility will meet growing global demand for glass fiber composite products in infrastructure, wind energy, construction, electronics and automotive markets. This expansion is ideal in the favorable business climate of the Vladimir Province, and establishes a foundation for the addition of a technical fabrics operation that will fully capture the growth of wind energy and distribution in Western Europe.”

The growth rate of glass fiber composite demand in Russia is estimated to be greater than 10 percent per year, and growing at nearly twice the rate of gross domestic product (GDP) around the world. Construction is planned to begin in 2008, with start-up anticipated by the end of 2009. The facility will continue full production during the expansion process.

Owens corning has been diversifying into composites and away from its reliance on US housing for a year now. That effort has picked up steam in the last 6 months and shareholders are seeing the benefits.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long OC

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Dow Chemical Director Hess Buys More Shares

In a just released SEC filing, Dow Chemical Director John Hess purchased an additional 30,900 shares on Monday at $32.35 for a total of $999k.

He now directly owns 82,270 shares

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow

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Will Merrill Sell Me Something?

This is the classic “I’ll pay you to take it” scenario…Thain is a pretty shrewd guy (please note sarcasm. )

So, Merrill Lynch (MER) unloaded $30bn in CDO for 22 cents on the dollar to Lone Star. They required Lone Star to put up 6 cents on the dollar to buy the portfolio and then loaned them the balance. Here is the kicker, as collateral for the loan, Lone Star, the buyer, is using the CDO’s it bought from Merrill.

In short, if Lone Star defaults in the loan, their losses are limited to the initial investment of $1.8 billion and Merrill’s sole recourse is to get’s back the CDO’s they just dumped. Lone Star’s upside is total, meaning they share none of it with Merrill…

From Merrill’s press release
:
“Merrill Lynch will provide financing to the purchaser for approximately 75 percent of the purchase price. The recourse on this loan will be limited to the assets of the purchaser. The purchaser will not own any assets other than those sold pursuant to this transaction. The transaction is expected to close within 60 days.”

If Merrill wants to sell anything else, please email me!!!!!!!!!!!….Please?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None …Thank God

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Latest Fed Auction Results

This is the highest rate yet since January

Release Date: July 29, 2008
For release at 10:00 a.m. EDT

On July 28, 2008, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $75 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Following are the results of the auction:

Stop-out rate: 2.350 percent

Total propositions submitted: $90.555 billion
Total propositions accepted: $75.000 billion
Bid/cover ratio: 1.21

Number of bidders: 70

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Berkshire Hathaway A Value Now? No

A follow-up on a post from March based on news today for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A).

Whitney Tilson and Andy Kilpatrick (who worte the best book on Berkshire, “Of Permanent Value”) were on CNBC today discussing the subject. Before we go on, watch what they said.

Now, earlier Tilson had this to say about housing and lenders.

Okay, so, if housing is going to drag for another 18 months, then Berkshire’s results will also. So, one would then expect lower comp. earnings and hence a lower share price.

Financials institutions like American Express (AXP), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), USB (USB), M&T Bank (MTB) make up about 30%-40% of Berkshire equity portfolio (it varies based on valuations). The argument can be made that these are the class of the financials and that may be true, but all have seen share prices cut almost in half in the last year and a half no mater their quality. The other parts are tied to housing (shares have suffered) and the consumer like Home Depot (HD), Lowes (LOW), USG (USG), Coke (KO) and others. A prolonged housing downturn could see further deterioration.

Wholly-owned subs such as Shaw Industries, Clayton Homes, Jordan’s Furniture (the are 4 furniture companies), Benjamin Moore, Home Services and Acme Brick and directly tied to housing and will suffer in the downturn Tilson predicts.

For all its holdings, Berkshire is essentially an insurance company. It has operated under “perfect” conditions for the last two years according to Buffett and eventually to run must end. Premiums are already falling and as houses are re-poed and fewer new cars are purchase, insurance premiums derived from those products will fall accordingly. I know people who are looking at homeowners and auto policies for way to decrease coverage and save money. Whether or not this is a good idea is irrelevant (I do not think it is), it is happening. Throw in a hurricane or two (we are due) and insurance could suffer quite a poor year.

For more on Berkshire’s insurance read this former post:

Back in March when shares sat at $133,000 I argued they were not a “value”. Today they sit at $111,000. Are they a value now? Perhaps but one also has to expect that the near term, if Tilson is correct is fraught with potholes for Berkshire and earnings ought to take a hit.

Based on that, share price ought to suffer also meaning you will probably be able to pick them up cheaper down the road. If I owned shares would I sell? If I needed the money in the next year, yes. If I had a multi-year time frame would I sell? No. If that was the case I would be watching down the road for a cheaper entry price, I think you’ll get it.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, None

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Thain the Next Casualty?

When he made the first statement I said he was putting the noose around his neck. Now Merrill Lynch’s (MER) John Thain just joined the list of execs who made statements regarding their firms fiscal well-being only to go back on them a few months later. Will his fate be the same as theirs?

Let’s go back. In April Thain said ““We deliberately raised more capital than we lost last year … we believe that will allow us to not have to go back to the equity market in the foreseeable future,” realizing he just was very vague he later clarified it to say “through issuing additional equity”.

Less than a month later
he reiterated that his company would not need additional funds. At the time I said he had nothing to gain and everything to lose in the situation since no oe would believe him anyway, why say it at all?

Two months later in an effort to raise more capital Merrill announce they would shed valuable assets (Bloomberg). Even this was worse than raising it through equity I said as it permanently impairs earnings power while an equity dilution can be undone over time.

Now comes news that Merrill will issue $8.5bn share offering and $5.7bn in additional write-downs from the sale of mortgage securities only 10 days after they reported a $4.6bn Q2 loss that included $9.4bn writedown, and announced the previously discussed asset sales aimed at raising an additional $8bn.

The CDO sale is shocking as Merrill said it would sell CDOs valued at $30.6bn to Lone Star Funds. At the end of Q2, the bank had estimated the value of the CDOs at $11.1bn. The securities are being sold for just $6.7bn, or about 22 cents on the dollar.

Thain clearly did not have a clue back in April when he opened his mouth.
Nor in May when he followed it up…..

It remains to be seen what happens but the mes Thain has put himself into rivals that of Chuck Prince at Citi (C), Ken Thompson at Wachovia (WB), Stan O’Neil at Merrill (MER) and Erin Callan at Lehman (LEH). All made promises that turned out not just to be wrong, but spectacularly so.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WB,C, none

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Tuesday's links

Congress, Greenspan, Financial TV, Smokes

– This is actually a very interesting idea

Agreed

– The more the better

Yes it is

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Tuesday’s links

Congress, Greenspan, Financial TV, Smokes

– This is actually a very interesting idea

Agreed

– The more the better

Yes it is

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ADM to Produce Ethanol from Brazilian Cane

This is bigger news than is being reported…

Remember this little nuggett from last summer?

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) will now apparently start cane-based ethanol production in Brazil with local partners according to a Brazilian newspaper Monday. According to the paper, ADM’s CEO Patricia Woertz is scheduled to be in the area August 19th and an announcement will happen on the 20th.

The company will participate in joint ventures to open two mills, both in center-western Goias state, financial newspaper Valor Economico said. Each mill will be able to crush 3 million to 4 million tons of sugar cane per year and first one should come on stream in 2010.

ADM of course has nothing to say about the potential deal. So if 1 ton of sugar cane gives us about 19.5 gallons of ethanol then ADM will ad roughly 120 to 160 million gallons of ethanol production a year to its abilities (approx. 1.5 billion gallons after current expansion finished).

Now, since we know that ethanol can be shipped to the US duty-free by using the Carribean Basin agreement and that currently the limits to those import are not even close to being tapped, ADM should be able to funnel this ethanol into the US duty free should it wish. As much talk as there is about “getting rid of the tariff on Brazilian ethanol” it is just that, all talk. The reason is that Brazil is currently decreasing its ethanol exports because it is requiring more for domestic use. Even if the tariff were lifted, it would not result in additional imports.

The bigger news here for shareholders is finally to company seems to have broken into the Brazilian market. Last June I wrote that ADM seemed to be intent on using the strategy that is currently being employed by Dow Chemical (DOW) and would go the JV route rather than just try for an outright purchase in the country. This seems to be happening.

It will require minimum cash outlays by the company ans assuming success, opens up options for other partnerships……win-win.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM, Dow

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KKR's Finally Going Public, Good News or Bad?

So, what does KKR’s decision to finally go public mean?

Last August KKR said they had “not delayed” their IPO plans despite earlier reports they would and a year later, here they go. Yea, that was a bit of a delay boys but, no matter.

The AP reports:
“The transaction is a big departure from plans announced a year ago by founders Henry R. Kravis and George R. Roberts to tap equity markets for up to $1.25 billion through an initial public offering. Credit market turmoil torpedoed that plan.

Late Sunday, the buyout shop said KKR principals will hold 79 percent of the combined company and KKR Private Equity shareholders will own 21 percent.

No cash will change hands in the deal, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter, and no additional public stock sales are planned. But by having the shares of the combined company trading on the NYSE, KKR said it should have enough cash needed to finance additional takeovers.

The value of the combined company will depend on how KKR Private Equity shares trade in the weeks and months ahead.

KKR Private Equity Investors said in an earnings release Sunday it has 204.9 million units outstanding, giving it a market capitalization of $2.15 billion at the current price of $10.50 per unit. That would suggest a value for the combined company of $10.25 billion.

But in its earnings statement, KKR Private Equity said its net asset value totaled $4.56 billion, or $22.25 per unit, at the end of the second quarter — nearly double its June 30 market price of $12.75. Therefore, KKR said it will make additional payments if KKR Private Equity shares don’t reach a level of at least $22.25 each, which would suggest it values the entire enterprise at more than $21 billion.”

Why list now? The optimist in me says that perhaps KKR sees the current environment at or near a bottom so going public now will lead to significant share price inflation in the future.

The pessimist says that perhaps conditions are getting worse and perhaps raising cash is getting difficult. By listing KKR would be able to raise some additional money that way and even used the stock as currency should they wish.

What to think? I tend to lean towards the former. Using the public route to raise cash at this point would smack of a bit of desperation or worse, a loss of investors willing to give KKR money to invest. Unlike the Blackstone IPO in which insiders sold out at the top essentially, KKR will significantly benefit from any share appreciation incurred as markets recover. Only time will tell but perhaps this will be a mark of a bottom…

On a final note, was Blackstone’s (BX) IPO perhaps the “market timing” gem of the last couple years? It indeed marked the high water mark for the industry.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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