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KKR’s Finally Going Public, Good News or Bad?

So, what does KKR’s decision to finally go public mean?

Last August KKR said they had “not delayed” their IPO plans despite earlier reports they would and a year later, here they go. Yea, that was a bit of a delay boys but, no matter.

The AP reports:
“The transaction is a big departure from plans announced a year ago by founders Henry R. Kravis and George R. Roberts to tap equity markets for up to $1.25 billion through an initial public offering. Credit market turmoil torpedoed that plan.

Late Sunday, the buyout shop said KKR principals will hold 79 percent of the combined company and KKR Private Equity shareholders will own 21 percent.

No cash will change hands in the deal, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter, and no additional public stock sales are planned. But by having the shares of the combined company trading on the NYSE, KKR said it should have enough cash needed to finance additional takeovers.

The value of the combined company will depend on how KKR Private Equity shares trade in the weeks and months ahead.

KKR Private Equity Investors said in an earnings release Sunday it has 204.9 million units outstanding, giving it a market capitalization of $2.15 billion at the current price of $10.50 per unit. That would suggest a value for the combined company of $10.25 billion.

But in its earnings statement, KKR Private Equity said its net asset value totaled $4.56 billion, or $22.25 per unit, at the end of the second quarter — nearly double its June 30 market price of $12.75. Therefore, KKR said it will make additional payments if KKR Private Equity shares don’t reach a level of at least $22.25 each, which would suggest it values the entire enterprise at more than $21 billion.”

Why list now? The optimist in me says that perhaps KKR sees the current environment at or near a bottom so going public now will lead to significant share price inflation in the future.

The pessimist says that perhaps conditions are getting worse and perhaps raising cash is getting difficult. By listing KKR would be able to raise some additional money that way and even used the stock as currency should they wish.

What to think? I tend to lean towards the former. Using the public route to raise cash at this point would smack of a bit of desperation or worse, a loss of investors willing to give KKR money to invest. Unlike the Blackstone IPO in which insiders sold out at the top essentially, KKR will significantly benefit from any share appreciation incurred as markets recover. Only time will tell but perhaps this will be a mark of a bottom…

On a final note, was Blackstone’s (BX) IPO perhaps the “market timing” gem of the last couple years? It indeed marked the high water mark for the industry.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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SEC Finally Exercises Some Logic

Well, at least if they actually do it..

The SEC may force investors to disclose short positions and may take additional steps to rein in rapid-fire short sales, Chairman Christopher Cox said. The SEC is examining whether to require short sellers to reveal “substantial” stakes, just as investors must disclose significant positions in companies. The agency may also reinstate a version of the so-called uptick rule, which barred short sales of stocks when prices are falling, he said Thursday in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee.

The regulator is trying to strike a balance between installing a “circuit breaker, or something that keeps things from running away,” and providing trading liquidity, Cox told the House panel.

Now, I have stumped here many times that disclosure for some should mean disclosure for all. If you are long or short you ought to be required to disclose it.

When asked, Whitney Tilson said, “Many short-sellers will object to disclosure because there is such a stigma associated with short selling,”. I partially agree and at the same time disagree with Whitney. I agree short sellers will balk at the rule but I also think part of the “stigma” associated with short selling is because it is often done in the shadows, since no disclosure it necessary. Anything that is viewed being done in secret, is always going to be viewed sceptically.

Admittedly, Tilson, Ackman and Einhorn do not fall into this camp as they are upfront and honest with the investor community about their actions. Thus they tend to be viewed (at least by those other than their targets) as “short investors” rather than traders that “pile on” falling stocks. It does make a tremendous difference.

When the above mention three short something, it is because they view a fundamental flaw in the business, not because they think “banks stock will fall”. They are almost betting on the extinction of the company like Ackman and Tilson in MBIA (MBI) and Ambac (ABK) (although both have reduced short positions in those) and Einhorn in Lehman (LEH).

Far from a “we can make 20% here”, it is a “this thing ought to go to zero”.

The SEC is right to require disclosure, the more open everything is, the better. I think the more open it is, the less short sellers would be viewed as though they are “boogymen”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Monday's Links

RIP, Cullen, WaMu, SEC

Really sad…….

James hits the important points

Are they for real?

Finally

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Monday’s Links

RIP, Cullen, WaMu, SEC

Really sad…….

James hits the important points

Are they for real?

Finally

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Dow Chemical Earnings Call Notes

Getting through some past information from the week away..

Dow Chemical (DOW) released earnings last week and while the results were down, the fact that they were remotely as strong as they were speaks volumes as to where we are going.

On the earnings call:

– Geographies outside of North America posted very strong growth. Europe was up 11%, Asia-Pacific was up 12%, and Latin America was up 5%, including the impact of some of the recent divestitures. Volume growth of 12% in emerging economies, which today represent 27% of Dow sales, Eastern Europe was up 19%, India was up 64%, and the Middle East was up 89%.

– Feedstock and energy costs increased $2.4 billion compared with the same quarter last year, and increased a $1 billion sequentially. These were the highest increases in Dow’s history. In this quarter oil hit $145 a barrel. It has since dropped over $20, yet Dow’s price increases will remain.

– Dow AgroSciences. Following a stellar first quarter, Dow Ag delivered even better results in the second quarter based on their strong product portfolio and robust industry conditions, posting price and volume gains in every geography. Sales of new Ag chem products increased 65% compared with the year ago, with strong growth of these products in North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia-Pacific, while sales of seeds and traits increased almost 40%.

– Dow AgroSciences made two very important announcements in the quarter. First, the business announced it has submitted SmartStax, its new 8 way gene combination for corn, in the U.S. EPA for regulatory review. This marks the critical first step in clearing SmartStax for commercialization. This is a joint venture with Monsanto (MON)

– Share buybacks, another $393 million was used to purchase 9.6 million shares of Dow stock in the second quarter. Since the beginning of 2006, they have spent $3 billion to repurchase approximately 7% of outstanding shares.

– Year-to-date return on capital and return on equity were 13% and 17% respectively

– Operations of K-Dow Petrochemicals will begin in the fourth quarter (Kuwait JV)

Regarding oil prices and it effects oi margins, in the Q&A CEO Andrew Liveris said:
“As you have noted and others have noted, what is really important to us is stability. If we can hover around these ranges now, $120, $130 oil and therefore its associated naphtha equivalents, then frankly that gives all of us a platform to operate from in terms of restoring the margin and then expanding the margins if we can.

Right now, apart from the US, I think we are all seeing great strength around the world that is enabling us to keep price momentum and therefore — we went very close Frank, if you look at how close we came to keeping our margins level despite this unprecedented surge, we did pretty good. And so with the full quarter to work with we have better certainty to get to even or better.”

More on Oil:
Jeffrey Zekauskas – JPMorgan
“Good morning. On average shouldn’t your raw material costs be down sequentially in the third quarter? Natural gas has gone from — I don’t know — $12 to $9 and oil has come from $135 to $125?”

Geoffery E. Merszei – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Member of the Board of Directors
“Yeah Jeff, this is Geoffrey here. Just to take oil, Brent crude average price as of this morning, let’s say, $124, $125. At today’s level it is still higher than our average cost during the first quarter. The average cost in the first quarter was around $122. I’m using crude as a reference point. And we are already towards the end of the first month of one-third of the quarter. So if you use an average rate for the third quarter of let’s say around $125, $126 then you are talking about over $0.5 billion additional cost for the company to absorb.”

Share repurchases:
Kevin McCarthy – Banc of America Securities
“Okay and then financial question for Geoffery, if I may. You have been very active in repurchasing shares, including during the second quarter. Given the pending Rohm and Haas deal, should we anticipate an even keel there in the back half of the year, or would you expect activity to diminish?”

Geoffery E. Merszei – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Member of the Board of Directors
“I think that — look, for the time being, until we close the K-Dow transaction, I think we’re going to take a little breather from a large buyback. Having said that, we do remain committed to reducing our share count over time. So, there will be a time when we will be back very actively, but we’re going to take a breather for the time being.”

Dow is inching close to the cusp of its transformation. If you read the call you can sense it not only in the executives tone but even in the analysts.

Please visit the blog Prudent speculation who had a nice post on the current price environment vs. cost from the call. I was going to get into it but Prudent does a great job in the post. Please read it here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow

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AutoNation Earnings Call Notes

Some interesting tidbits in the earnings call.

– AutoNation retailed 73, 500 new vehicles on a same-store basis, down 13%, compared to the period a year ago. But favorable compared to the industry that, according to CNW Research, was off 16% at retail on the quarter. Used vehicle results were favorable relative to new. They retailed just under 50,000 units in the quarter, 4% less compared to a year ago. Inventory at June 30th reflects a new vehicle day supply of 62 days. This represents an increase of seven days compared to a year ago, it reflects the slower sales pace in May and June and compares favorably to the industry at 67 days. Margins are 10 basis points higher than the nearest competitor, and 140 bps higher than the average used-car dealer.

In short, AutoNation is clearly the class of the auto retailing industry.

At June 30th, store count numbered 242, representing 319 franchises and 39 brands in 15 states. In September, AN will open Mercedes-Benz of Del Rey in Del Rey Beach, Florida. This add point brings the Mercedes dealership count to seven in Florida and 14 company-wide.

AutoNation is focused on profitability rather than market share. Market share will take care of itself as US auto makers shrink brands and dealerships in an effort to streamline operations. As AutoNation lessons it reliance on US brands, it’s market share will increase by default. Said Jackson, “we continue to divest underperforming stores to optimize our portfolio. The divestitures are primarily domestic franchise. However, we will retain our high-volume, core domestic franchises. We expect over time that these domestic franchises will constitute about 20% of our new vehicle revenue (29% currently).

Jackson was asked specifically about this on the call:
Rick Nelson – Stephens
“Are you seeing an acceleration in store closings among competitors?”

Mike Jackson
“Yes, on the domestic side, absolutely. And as I said earlier, we have a core group of domestic stores that are great locations with high throughput franchises that as painful as the current environment will be long-term, we will be served well by the shakeout that is going on now.”

This news piggybacks on a previous post regarding the potential gains for AutoNation from domestic automaker’s problems.

It seems that expectations for several holdings, Dow Chemical (DOW), Sherwin Williams (SHW), Citigroup (C) and now AutoNation (AN) were all far worse than reality. With the exception of Citigroup (the jury is still out) they all have top flight management who are deftly steering their respective businesses through unprecedented times. With depressed share prices, better than anticipated results, and visibility clearing, buy opportunities abound.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN, none

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While I Was Away…….Weirdness

It seems like as soon as I go on vacation, the news start flowing like mad..and makes very little sense..or does it?

– Citigroup (C) lost $2.5 billion and people were thrilled

– Wachovia (WB) figured they would one up them so they lost over $8 billion, eliminated over 6,000 jobs and cut the dividend…..people were thrilled

– Wachovia looks so bad the CEO just spent $16 million buying a million shares

– McDonalds (MCD) beat estimates and gets downgraded

– Obama disses injured troops in Germany and then offers contradicting excuses on Friday and Saturday…what will Sunday bring? This one actually makes sense…..he doesn’t care..

– Starbucks (SBUX), after “not telling” what stores were closed realized it was cruel to keep people in wonder as to their job status and finally released the list. They can’t do anything right at this point..

– An analyst got sued by a company that did not like what he had to say.

– Starbucks apparently still thinks they can execute breakfast…….I thought they mercifully gave up on it..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Friday's Links

Shelby Steele, NY Times, Obama, SEC

Fascinating

– Doesn’t everyone outside of Manhattan?

– If you say anything enough, it becomes seen as true, whether it really is or not.

– They have become a hindrance to the market..

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Friday’s Links

Shelby Steele, NY Times, Obama, SEC

Fascinating

– Doesn’t everyone outside of Manhattan?

– If you say anything enough, it becomes seen as true, whether it really is or not.

– They have become a hindrance to the market..

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Phillip Morris International on Fire

Well Q1 as an independent company is in the books for Phillip Morris International (PM) and of to a great start we are.

On Wednesday, Philip Morris reported double-digit sales and profits increases in the second quarter, boosted by higher prices and the weaker dollar.

Philip Morris shipped 223.2 billion cigarettes in Q2, up 1.0% from a year earlier. For the year, Philip Morris forecast earnings of $3.32 to $3.38 a share, up from its previous forecast of $3.18 to $3.24. This represents a growth of about 19% to 21% from a 2007 pro-forma adjusted base of $2.79 per share. Analysts had expected the company to earn $3.25 per share.

The company has just started to return cash to shareholders in the form uf a multi-billion dollar share repurchase which will further support EPS. How much you ask? During Q2, Philip Morris repurchased 41.4 million common shares for $2.1 billion, which is a part of its two year $13 billion share repurchase program that began in May of this year.

PM also declared its inaugural regular quarterly dividend of 46 cents during the quarter, which represents an annualized rate of $1.84 per share and a dividend yield of 3.6%.

In the quarter, Philip Morris International said profits rose 20.0%, to $1.8 billion, or 86 cents per share, from $1.5 billion, or 70 cents per share, in the year-earlier quarter. Revenues jumped 20.1%, to $16.7 billion, up from $13.9 billion last year. The sales include excise taxes totaling $10.0 billion. Excluding those taxes, revenue rose 15.5%.

Sales in the Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa segment jumped 19% with operating income climbing 28%. Europe, its largest market, saw a 15% increase in sales and a 20% profit increase. Latin America and Asia recorded earnings jumps of 44% and 22%, respectively.

Just buy this stock and look back at it in ten years….you’ll be very happy

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long PM

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Dow's Quarter and Rohm & Haas

Another fantastic management job at Dow Chemical (DOW) this quarter and more affirmation as to why the Rohm & Haas (ROH) deal went for the price it did and why it is a great purchase.

Results:
Sales for the second quarter set another Company record, rising 23 percent from the same period last year to $16.4 billion. Double-digit price increases were recorded in all operating segments and all geographic areas.

· Volume grew 5 percent, with 12 percent growth in geographic areas outside of North America, including an 11 percent volume increase in Europe.

· Earnings for the quarter were $0.81 per share, compared with earnings per share of $1.07 in the same quarter last year.

· Purchased feedstock and energy costs surged 42 percent, or $2.4 billion, compared with the same quarter last year, the largest year-over-year increase in the Company’s history.

· EBIT(1) in the combined Performance segments rose compared with the same period last year despite substantial increases in raw material and supply chain costs.

· Agricultural Sciences set a new quarterly record for both sales and EBIT. Sales rose 25 percent, and EBIT grew more than 60 percent versus the same period last year.

· Equity earnings were $251 million for the quarter, once again demonstrating consistent contributions from joint ventures to the Company’s results.

In my interview with Andrew Liveris he stated why he was most excited about Dow Ag. Today’s results would show why

The Agricultural Sciences segment posted record sales of $1.4 billion, 25 percent higher than the same period last year. All geographic areas posted double-digit increases in sales, reflecting organic growth and growth from recent acquisitions. Dow AgroSciences’ broad portfolio of both agricultural chemicals and seeds benefited from rising prices and low global inventories of farm commodities. Price was up 12 percent, with strong increases in all geographic areas. Volume was up 13 percent compared with the same period last year, with double-digit increases in North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia Pacific. Ag chemicals showed particular strength. Sales were up sharply for new cereal and rice herbicides, and for spinetoram insecticide, which continued its successful launch in the United States. Seeds and traits continued to benefit from a strong ag economy with global demand for agricultural output at record levels. The recent acquisitions of Agromen, MTI and Duo Maize continue to perform well, and the integration of newly acquired Triumph Seeds is progressing. Second quarter EBIT for Agricultural Sciences was $335 million, compared with $208 million in the year ago period.

For Dow currently it comes down to costs for the remainder of the year. Oil surged in the quarter and the price increases did not take effect until the second half of the quarter. Now that oil has come back and the full price increases are in effect, Q3 will show far better results.

At the end of the year, the commodity business goes to the Kuwaiti’s, the Rohm deal closes and the earnings profile is forever changed. Until then, you can still get shares on the cheap, oh yea, and they pack a 5% yield.

Full release:

Why Rohm & Hass(ROH)? The specialty chemical maker today reported an 8% increase in earnings. Liveris on CNBC (below) confirmed there was a 3-way bidding war for the company and the other finalist was BASF (BASF), who ultimately lacked the financial flexibility Dow now has to finalize a deal.

What is being lost currently is the cost synergies the two companies will now enjoy. Rohm is a major purchaser of Dow materials and Liveris has stated the amount come close to $800 million in annual cost savings. Should we believe it? I think when one considers every other deal he has done has recognized in excess of his stated synergies in a time frame that exceeded his estimates, I think we ought to expect more than the $800 million. In materials like Latex, the combined company with be a behemoth and enjoy added pricing power.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, None

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Dow’s Quarter and Rohm & Haas

Another fantastic management job at Dow Chemical (DOW) this quarter and more affirmation as to why the Rohm & Haas (ROH) deal went for the price it did and why it is a great purchase.

Results:
Sales for the second quarter set another Company record, rising 23 percent from the same period last year to $16.4 billion. Double-digit price increases were recorded in all operating segments and all geographic areas.

· Volume grew 5 percent, with 12 percent growth in geographic areas outside of North America, including an 11 percent volume increase in Europe.

· Earnings for the quarter were $0.81 per share, compared with earnings per share of $1.07 in the same quarter last year.

· Purchased feedstock and energy costs surged 42 percent, or $2.4 billion, compared with the same quarter last year, the largest year-over-year increase in the Company’s history.

· EBIT(1) in the combined Performance segments rose compared with the same period last year despite substantial increases in raw material and supply chain costs.

· Agricultural Sciences set a new quarterly record for both sales and EBIT. Sales rose 25 percent, and EBIT grew more than 60 percent versus the same period last year.

· Equity earnings were $251 million for the quarter, once again demonstrating consistent contributions from joint ventures to the Company’s results.

In my interview with Andrew Liveris he stated why he was most excited about Dow Ag. Today’s results would show why

The Agricultural Sciences segment posted record sales of $1.4 billion, 25 percent higher than the same period last year. All geographic areas posted double-digit increases in sales, reflecting organic growth and growth from recent acquisitions. Dow AgroSciences’ broad portfolio of both agricultural chemicals and seeds benefited from rising prices and low global inventories of farm commodities. Price was up 12 percent, with strong increases in all geographic areas. Volume was up 13 percent compared with the same period last year, with double-digit increases in North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia Pacific. Ag chemicals showed particular strength. Sales were up sharply for new cereal and rice herbicides, and for spinetoram insecticide, which continued its successful launch in the United States. Seeds and traits continued to benefit from a strong ag economy with global demand for agricultural output at record levels. The recent acquisitions of Agromen, MTI and Duo Maize continue to perform well, and the integration of newly acquired Triumph Seeds is progressing. Second quarter EBIT for Agricultural Sciences was $335 million, compared with $208 million in the year ago period.

For Dow currently it comes down to costs for the remainder of the year. Oil surged in the quarter and the price increases did not take effect until the second half of the quarter. Now that oil has come back and the full price increases are in effect, Q3 will show far better results.

At the end of the year, the commodity business goes to the Kuwaiti’s, the Rohm deal closes and the earnings profile is forever changed. Until then, you can still get shares on the cheap, oh yea, and they pack a 5% yield.

Full release:

Why Rohm & Hass(ROH)? The specialty chemical maker today reported an 8% increase in earnings. Liveris on CNBC (below) confirmed there was a 3-way bidding war for the company and the other finalist was BASF (BASF), who ultimately lacked the financial flexibility Dow now has to finalize a deal.

What is being lost currently is the cost synergies the two companies will now enjoy. Rohm is a major purchaser of Dow materials and Liveris has stated the amount come close to $800 million in annual cost savings. Should we believe it? I think when one considers every other deal he has done has recognized in excess of his stated synergies in a time frame that exceeded his estimates, I think we ought to expect more than the $800 million. In materials like Latex, the combined company with be a behemoth and enjoy added pricing power.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow, None

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AutoNation (AN) CEO on Earnings

AutoNation (AN) released results today and the news was far better than one would expect given its current operating environment.

America’s largest automotive retailer, today reported 2008 second quarter net income from continuing operations of $53 million or $0.29 per share, compared to year-ago net income from continuing operations of $79 million or $0.38 per share. After adjusting for certain items disclosed in the attached financial tables, net income from continuing operations for the 2008 second quarter was $59 million or $0.33 per share, compared to $76 million or $0.36 per share in the prior year. analysts had expected $.30 cents a share.

Second quarter 2008 revenue totaled $3.9 billion, compared to $4.5 billion in the year-ago period, driven primarily by lower new vehicle sales. In the second quarter, total U.S. industry retail sales declined 16%, based on CNW Research data. In comparison, in the second quarter AutoNation’s new vehicle unit sales declined 12%.
Commenting on the second quarter, Mike Jackson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said, “Despite the fact that this past quarter was the most challenging automotive sales environment any of us have encountered, AutoNation delivered solid profitability.” Mr. Jackson also noted, “In the second quarter, the industry encountered $4.00 per gallon gasoline on top of the continued housing depression and credit crisis, resulting in a significant challenge as consumers are either postponing the purchase of vehicles or they are purchasing smaller vehicles that are more economical both at the time of purchase and at the pump. We now believe that, in 2008, U.S. new vehicle industry sales will decline to the low-14 million unit level.”

Mr. Jackson added, “In continuing response to the ongoing macroeconomic and industry challenges, we are executing a cost reduction plan with a targeted annualized run rate pre-tax savings of $100 million. In the first half of the year, we achieved approximately $25 million of this benefit. In the second half of the year, we expect to achieve approximately $50 million of savings, for a full-year 2008 impact of $75 million on a pre-tax basis. Our targeted annualized cost savings include reductions in advertising spending, corporate overhead expense and store personnel expense.”

Full release:

I don’t think (at least I hope) anyone is buying share of AutoNation now expecting an immediate payoff. This is a true value investment. The deal here is that when auto’s rebound, AutoNation, being the largest and also the most well run organization of the lot will benefit the most from its currently depressed levels.

Jackson is cutting costs and making the necessary moves to position the company for the rebound.

Watch him on CNBC this morning:

Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn seems to back Jackson’s thoughts. The advantage Jackson has is that he will benefit from all the automakers, and whatever trend(s) emerge not just one.

With famed investors like Berkshires’s (BRK.A) Buffett, Sears’ (SHLD) Lampert, Gates, Leucadia (LUK) and Sullivan jumping into the sector, now it the time to be buying shares.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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John Paulson's Jedi-like Instinct

John Paulson made $3.7B in 2007 betting against an over levered financial system. The ability to go left when everyone else is going right is truly the mark of a great investor.

I would like to point out some of Paulson’s superhuman abilities:

1. Paulson had an almost clairvoyant insight into the machinations of Bear Stearns, who at the time was propping up faltering Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS),

“..by purchasing individual mortgages that were rapidly losing value to avoid doling out billions in swap payments”.

2. In the days leading up to the Bear Stearns collapse Paulson instinctively cashed out of all Bear Stearns related investments.

I would also point out what his detractors say:

1. Paulson’s insight was more like insider information.

“Back in January (2007).. Bear’s head mortgage trader, Scott Eichel, talked with a small group of traders over drinks in the Venetian hotel about propping up the ABX index by buying and rescuing some struggling subprime bonds, say two people who were there.”

and,

“In April .. Paulson executives called Mr. Eichel to ask whether he was contemplating a plan to repurchase mortgage-backed securities. ‘Maybe we are, maybe we’re not,’ Mr. Eichel replied, according to two Paulson executives, who say he added they should call him if they were interested.”

2. Paulson’s early cash-out even made the SEC suspicious of wrong doing:

“Bear Stearns Cos. plans to turn over documents to securities regulators showing that several financial giants, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citadel Investment Group and Paulson & Co., slashed their exposure to the securities firm in the weeks before its collapse.”

and just days before the fall of Bear Stearns,

“Beginning March 10, Paulson .. unloaded dozens of credit-default swaps with Bear Stearns.. In every case, Bear Stearns owed Paulson money on the swaps, based on mark-to-market values at the time of the transfer.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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John Paulson’s Jedi-like Instinct

John Paulson made $3.7B in 2007 betting against an over levered financial system. The ability to go left when everyone else is going right is truly the mark of a great investor.

I would like to point out some of Paulson’s superhuman abilities:

1. Paulson had an almost clairvoyant insight into the machinations of Bear Stearns, who at the time was propping up faltering Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS),

“..by purchasing individual mortgages that were rapidly losing value to avoid doling out billions in swap payments”.

2. In the days leading up to the Bear Stearns collapse Paulson instinctively cashed out of all Bear Stearns related investments.

I would also point out what his detractors say:

1. Paulson’s insight was more like insider information.

“Back in January (2007).. Bear’s head mortgage trader, Scott Eichel, talked with a small group of traders over drinks in the Venetian hotel about propping up the ABX index by buying and rescuing some struggling subprime bonds, say two people who were there.”

and,

“In April .. Paulson executives called Mr. Eichel to ask whether he was contemplating a plan to repurchase mortgage-backed securities. ‘Maybe we are, maybe we’re not,’ Mr. Eichel replied, according to two Paulson executives, who say he added they should call him if they were interested.”

2. Paulson’s early cash-out even made the SEC suspicious of wrong doing:

“Bear Stearns Cos. plans to turn over documents to securities regulators showing that several financial giants, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citadel Investment Group and Paulson & Co., slashed their exposure to the securities firm in the weeks before its collapse.”

and just days before the fall of Bear Stearns,

“Beginning March 10, Paulson .. unloaded dozens of credit-default swaps with Bear Stearns.. In every case, Bear Stearns owed Paulson money on the swaps, based on mark-to-market values at the time of the transfer.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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