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Icahn Files 13D/A in Guaranty Financial Group

Icahn files this with the SEC today in Guaranty Financial (GFG)

Item 4 of the Initial 13D is hereby amended by adding the following:

On July 21, 2008, the transactions contemplated by the Investment Agreement
and the Purchase Agreement closed. At the closing, the Reporting Persons
received, in exchange for aggregate consideration of $230,000,011 in cash,
1,469,830 shares of Series B Preferred Stock and $175 million in principal
amount of Subordinated Notes. Approval by the Issuer’s stockholders is required
before the conversion feature of the Series B Preferred Stock can be exercised.

In connection with the closing, the Reporting Persons and certain of their
affiliates entered into an Agreement for Rebuttal of Rebuttable Determination of
Control (the “Rebuttal of Control Agreement”) with the Office of Thrift
Supervision, substantially in the form required by OTS regulations at 12 C.F.R.
Part 574. Under the Rebuttal of Control Agreement, unless otherwise approved by
the Office of Thrift Supervision, the Reporting Persons and certain of their
affiliates are obligated not to:

o Seek or accept representation of more than one member of the board of
directors of the Issuer or its principal savings bank subsidiary,
Guaranty Bank (“Guaranty Bank”);

o Have or seek to have any representative serve as the chairman of the
board of directors, or chairman of an executive or similar committee
of the Issuer’s or Guaranty Bank’s board of directors or as president
or chief executive officer of the Issuer or Guaranty Bank;

o Engage in any intercompany transaction with the Issuer or the Issuer’s
affiliates, except as provided in an existing agreement;

o Propose a director in opposition to nominees proposed by the
management of the Issuer or Guaranty Bank for the board of directors
of the Issuer or Guaranty Bank, other than as permitted above;

o Solicit proxies or participate in any solicitation of proxies with
respect to any matter presented to the stockholders of the Issuer
other than in support of, or in opposition to, a solicitation
conducted on behalf of management of the Issuer;

o Do any of the following, except as necessary solely in connection with
the performance of duties by the Reporting Persons’ representative as
a member of the Issuer’s board of directors:

(a) Influence or attempt to influence in any respect the loan and
credit decisions or policies of the Issuer or Guaranty Bank,
the pricing of services, any personnel decisions, the location
of any offices, branching, the hours of operation or similar
activities of the Issuer or Guaranty Bank;

(b) Influence or attempt to influence the dividend policies and
practices of the Issuer or Guaranty Bank or any decisions or
policies of the Issuer or Guaranty Bank as to the offering or
exchange of any securities;

(c) Seek to amend, or otherwise take action to change, the bylaws,
articles of incorporation, or charter of the Issuer or
Guaranty Bank;

(d) Exercise, or attempt to exercise, directly or indirectly,
control or a controlling influence over the management,
policies or business operations of the Issuer or Guaranty
Bank; or

(e) Seek or accept access to any non-public information concerning
the Issuer or Guaranty Bank; or

o Assist, aid or abet any of the Reporting Persons’ affiliates or
associates that are not parties to the Rebuttal of Control Agreement
to act, or act in concert with any person or company, in a manner
which is inconsistent with the terms of the Rebuttal of Control
Agreement or which constitutes an attempt to evade the requirements
therein.

Item 5. Interest in Securities of the Issuer

Item 5(a) of the Initial 13D is hereby amended and restated as follows:

(a) The Reporting Persons may be deemed to beneficially own, in the
aggregate, (i) 3,455,493 Shares, representing approximately 7.73% of the
Issuer’s outstanding Shares (based upon the 44,684,585 Shares stated to be
outstanding by the Issuer as of July 14, 2008) and (ii) 1,469,830 shares of
Series B Preferred Stock, representing approximately 23.78% of the Issuer’s
outstanding shares of Series B Preferred Stock (based upon the 6,181,934
shares of Series B Preferred Stock stated to be outstanding by the Issuer
as of July 14, 2008).

Item 5(c) of the Initial 13D is hereby amended and restated as follows:

(c) Except as described in Item 4, no transactions with respect to
Shares were effected during the past sixty (60) days by any of the
Reporting Persons.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Bill Gates Buys AutoNation (AN) Shares

Bill Gates’ Cascade Investments and The Gates Foundation in a recent SEC filing disclosed a 5.5% stake in the auto retailer.


From the filing:

“(1) Cascade Investment, L.L.C. (“Cascade”) holds 5,263,588 shares of Common Stock. For purposes of Rule 13d-3 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, all shares of Common Stock held by Cascade may be deemed to be beneficially owned by William H. Gates III as the sole member of Cascade. Michael Larson, the Business Manager of Cascade, has voting and investment power with respect to the shares of Common Stock held by Cascade. Mr. Larson disclaims any beneficial ownership of the shares of Common Stock beneficially owned by Cascade and Mr. Gates.

(2) The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (“Trust”) holds 4,640,000 shares of Common Stock. For purposes of Rule 13d-3 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, all shares of Common Stock held by the Trust may be deemed to be beneficially owned by William H. Gates III and Melinda French Gates as Co-Trustees of the Trust. Michael Larson has voting and investment power with respect to the shares of Common Stock owned by the Trust. Mr. Larson disclaims any beneficial ownership of the shares of Common Stock beneficially owned by the Trust or Mr. and Mrs. Gates.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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Goldman Sachs (GS): No Value Investing Here

Still on vacation but some things need attention. Read some of Goldman Sachs’ (GS) research report on Sherwin Williams (SHW) today..

“Although the company’s long-term growth potential remains intact, we are cautious that the cost and demand headwinds will continue challenging SHW in the near term: (1) our economists expect existing home sales (key indicator for paint demand) to trough in 1H2009; (2) the overall non- residential market is poised for a downturn as a substantially tighter credit condition and slowing overall activity weigh on the sector; (3) the raw material cost spike will reach a crescendo on SHW’s P&L in 2H2008 and the consolidation among leading paint ingredient suppliers (DOW & ROH)
may exert additional cost pressure on the paint industry; (4) the double blow of demand weakness and cost spikes could limit the success of SHW’s ongoing aggressive price hikes. Therefore, we see meaningful downside risk to SHW’s earnings and share price in the short term.”

So, short term problem but long term, everything ok. Sell???

Isn’t this a textbook case of what Berkshire Hathaway’s (BEK.A) Warren Buffett means when he say “buy fear”?

I mean, things look tough so sell the hell out of it? Ought we not buy it when there are short term problem that do not affect the long term outlook and growth potential? If you are a current shareholder, Goldman is saying that sell you shares even though long term they expect them to be fine because they may dip for the next months.

These “buy” and “sell” ratings really ought to be ignored by anyone who holds securities for more than a month. They are only good for the day they are issued. Anyone remember all the “buy” recommendations on Google as it neared $700 a share?

If not, read here:

Not sure why much if this matters anyway, Dow chemical (DOW) is going to buy Sherwin anyway

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW, DOW

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Monday's Links

Reid, Borders, Dimon, Sherwin

– Hey Harry!!! Why not “tackle” the LACK OF OIL…?

– The new site is great

Read this

Dividend

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Monday’s Links

Reid, Borders, Dimon, Sherwin

– Hey Harry!!! Why not “tackle” the LACK OF OIL…?

– The new site is great

Read this

Dividend

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Please Welcome A New Contributor…..

You may have notice a new blogger here at ValuePlays. Vlado ia taking a shot at it and will occasionally contribute. I think the value folks out there will find is style , topics and ability to find information has real merit.

Vlado’s first post is here

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Is Bruce Berkowitz calling Transportation The New Energy Sector?

In a recent interview Bruce Berkowitz, of Fairholme Capital Management (FAIRX), revealed that he was leaving Energy and heading into the Health Care sector. Was Berkowitz sincere? Or was it a quarterback misdirection?

A Google search revealed this unreferenced pdf presentation from June 2007 that points out (on page 19) that Fairholme Capital Management (FAIRX) is Clarke Inc‘s second largest institutional investor, with 1,142,400 shares (4.5% equity stake).

Also came across this article on a man often compared to Carl Icahn, George Armoyan whose private holding company Geosam Investments controls Clarke Inc (CLKFF) (a Canadian-based parent company of 6 subsidiaries, involved in transportation/shipping). This page describes their value-based investment process: Clarke value investment process.

This blog raves about Clarke Inc like it was a baby-Berkshire Hathaway.

Further digging reveals that Bruce Berkowitz is also holding an 8.44% stake in TAL International Group, Inc. (TAL), which is involved in Maritime container management services, Dry freight containers, etc.- and describes itself as a premier container leasing company.

Notice Berkowitz’s transportation-themed investments? Need I remind you about another well respected investor who recently became interested in transportation by way of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (BNI).

Bottom line, two All-American quarterbacks have called the play: “Go long” (transportation).

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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On Vacation (Again)

Off to Maine this week

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Friday's Links

Starbucks, Iraq, Rodgers, Inflation

Another view

– Nothing like telegraphing the move. If I were the terrorists I would be insulted he thinks they are so stupid..

– Uh, Jim, who has said this is happening?

– More dangerous than slow growth
\

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Friday’s Links

Starbucks, Iraq, Rodgers, Inflation

Another view

– Nothing like telegraphing the move. If I were the terrorists I would be insulted he thinks they are so stupid..

– Uh, Jim, who has said this is happening?

– More dangerous than slow growth
\

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Financials……Is it for Real?

I think it depends on what you own..

Just as I am skeptical when something falls 49% in a couple days barring extreme circumstances I am equally un-enthused when the converse happens.

Watch the following discussion:

Now, holders in JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) can be assured that the rally in their share is for real for the simple reason that the sell-off in them was far overdone. A word of caution, this isn’t really so much a rally of enthusiasm that “bad news is done” as much as it is a rally of confirmation of quality. Dramatic share gains from here ,may not be likely but a slow climb probably is.

But, holder of shares in Washington Mutual (WM), Merrill (MER), Wachovia (WB), Lehman (LEH), National City (NCC) and other weak firms ought not get too caught up in what is happening. There are plenty of dark clouds out there still and you are going to get rained in sooner, rather than later. That is not to say we may have seen a bottom but a return to year earlier price levels won’t be seen for a while. There is a very real chance that 6 months from now you are staring at prices level you see today.

All in all it is very good news. For the first time in a long while we are now going to be able to look at individual firms and have some level of expectation that share performance will track firm performance rather than what has happened the past 6 months, everything was killed.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WB,WFC, none

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Annello on Sears Holdings

Here is a nice post by Jeff Annello on Sears Holdings (SHLD) in which he gives it a valuation

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHLD

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Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
CB&I (CBI)- Stanford Research Sell » Hold
Steven Madden (SHOO)- Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
EOG Resources (EOG)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
Starwood Hotels (HOT)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
PF Chang’s (PFCB)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
ACE Limited (ACE)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Microchip (MCHP)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Colnl BancGrp (CNB)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Linear Tech (LLTC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Blackboard (BBBB)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Downgrades
Jamba (JMBA)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
ProLogis (PLD)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
St. Joe Company (JOE)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Host Hotels (HST)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
eBay (EBAY)- AmTech Research Neutral » Sell
InterVoice (INTV)- Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Hold
Polycom (PLCM)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Omnicom (OMC)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Albany Molecular (AMRI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
InterVoice (INTV)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Host Hotels (HST)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
FelCor Lodging (FCH)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Host Hotels (HST)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Strategic Hotels & Resorts (BEE)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Starbucks (SBUX)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Wells Fargo (WFC)- UBS Buy » Neutral
AMB Property (AMB)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Georgia Gulf (GGC)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
CB&I (CBI)- Stanford Research Sell » Hold
Steven Madden (SHOO)- Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
EOG Resources (EOG)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
Starwood Hotels (HOT)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Outperform
PF Chang’s (PFCB)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Buy
ACE Limited (ACE)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Marshall & Ilsley (MI)- Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform
Microchip (MCHP)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Colnl BancGrp (CNB)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Linear Tech (LLTC)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Blackboard (BBBB)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Downgrades
Jamba (JMBA)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
ProLogis (PLD)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
St. Joe Company (JOE)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Host Hotels (HST)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
eBay (EBAY)- AmTech Research Neutral » Sell
InterVoice (INTV)- Wedbush Morgan Strong Buy » Hold
Polycom (PLCM)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Omnicom (OMC)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Albany Molecular (AMRI)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
InterVoice (INTV)- Brean Murray Buy » Hold
Host Hotels (HST)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
Diamondrock Hospitality (DRH)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
FelCor Lodging (FCH)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Host Hotels (HST)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Strategic Hotels & Resorts (BEE)- Wachovia Mkt Perform » Underperform
Starbucks (SBUX)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Wells Fargo (WFC)- UBS Buy » Neutral
AMB Property (AMB)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Georgia Gulf (GGC)- Lehman Brothers Equal-Weight » Underweight

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JP Morgan Joins Wells Fargo

Looks like in banking it is now a two horse race. JP Morgan (JPM) reported today and like Wells Fargo (WFC) yesterday, investors were undoubtedly pleased.

From the Release:
JPMorgan (JPM) today reported 2008 second-quarter net income of $2.0 billion, compared with net income of $4.2 billion in the second quarter of 2007. Earnings per share of $0.54 were down 55%, compared with earnings per share of $1.20 in the second quarter of 2007. Current-quarter results include the effect of merger-related items amounting to a net loss of $540 million (after-tax) related to the acquisition of The Bear Stearns Companies Inc., which closed on May 30, 2008. Excluding these items, net income would have been $2.5 billion.

Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, commented on the quarter: “Our earnings were down significantly due to the unfavorable credit environment and market conditions. The Investment Bank took additional markdowns on leveraged loans and mortgage-related positions. Retail Financial Services experienced further deterioration in its home lending portfolio, which resulted in higher charge-offs and an increase in the allowance for credit losses. However, the firm overall continued to maintain solid underlying business momentum. We had market share gains in Investment Banking fees and key product areas. Retail Financial Services posted organic revenue growth of 15%, and all of our major businesses produced growth in accounts, balances and volumes. Further positive results in the quarter included record performance from both Commercial Banking and Treasury & Securities Services.”

Mr. Dimon added, “We also completed the highly complex Bear Stearns acquisition as planned. Through the truly remarkable partnership and efforts of our people in extremely difficult times, we made great progress towards full integration, while also significantly reducing our combined risk positions. We now have an expanded platform to better serve our institutional clients – one which we fully expect will make our franchise stronger over time.”

Mr. Dimon further remarked, “I am pleased with the strength of our balance sheet and capital positions, particularly in the context of the market challenges we have faced during the past year. During the quarter, we added $1.3 billion to our allowance for credit losses (which now totals $13.9 billion) and maintained strong capital ratios.”

Discussing the firm’s outlook, Dimon said, “Our expectation is for the economic environment to continue to be weak – and to likely get weaker – and for the capital markets to remain under stress. We remain conscious that since substantial risks still remain on our balance sheet, these factors will likely affect our business for the remainder of the year or longer. However, the firm has delivered underlying growth across most of our businesses, and with our substantial capital base we can continue to invest for the future. In spite of the environment, we are confident that we are building an increasingly strong and profitable company.”

Dick Bove said:

Bove is right, Dimon is tempering expectations as there is still some ambiguity out there. Rather than thump his chest and make flashy predictions, Dimon reminds people it is tough out there.

Now here is the good part for shareholders. Because of his superior management ability, like Sherwin Williams (SHW) and Harley Davidson (HOG) earlier today results were not nearly as bad as expected. Poor operating environments will inevitably lead to earnings decline but superior management will soften the losses compared to peers while positioning the company to take advantage of the eventual economic rebounds.

Meanwhile people over0react to the operating environment forgetting the superior management and thus “value” investing opportunities are created….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, SHW, HOG, None

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