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More on Naked Shorts or "Why the SEC Sucks"

Just a day after banning “naked shorting” in financial stocks, the Chris Cox and his decides it is necessary to let some people do it. You know what? Just shut them down….the SEC that is. They are more aggravation than they are worth. Let’s get our act together over there kids…

The WSJ reported today:

“By putting the kibosh on so-called naked short-selling in companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the SEC would complicate life for market makers who take the opposite side of orders to trade stocks and options.

Early Wednesday, one day after the SEC issued the order for 19 financial companies, representatives from the seven U.S. options exchanges contacted SEC officials to convey concerns and raise the possibility of an exemption.

The SEC is now considering such a move, an agency spokesman said, although no decision had been made at press time.

The SEC’s order stirred immediate panic in the options market. Market makers often short-sell companies’ stock in order to hedge positions they take in options contracts. If they sell put contracts, they turn around and sell stock in the same company.

“If market makers can’t hedge themselves,” said Andy Schwarz, founder of AGS Specialist Partners, “they will be unable to sell puts and buy calls.”

Ooops!!

Did anyone over there actually think this thing through? How can this happen? We are now going to need a scorecard just to tell who can do what in what stocks.

As I watch Cox sit in front of Congress doing his best impersonation of a constipated toll collector contemplating a potentially lethal dose of Metamucil, I get angry. He has let this stuff go on for years and only now, when the shorts are actually right, decided to jump in with both feet and screw things up even more.

Again, why not investigate Lehman’s (LEH) Erin Callan, citi’s (C) Chuck Prince, Merrill’s (MER) Stan O’Neil, Wachovia’s (WB) Ken Thompson and on and on. They all told shareholders “things were great” only to have those who bought shares listening to them get slaughtered. What does Cox do? Investigate the guys who were screaming “things are not alright” the whole time and oh yea……were right!!

Chris, just please go back to whatever it is you have been doing for the past 4 years and get out of our way please…. we really don’t need you

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C,WB none

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Look Under the Sofa Cushion To Buy Six Flags Shares

As much as a doubter of Six flags (SIX) that I am, even this dramatic move surprised me.

Six Flags’ shares lost 37 cents to close at 48 cents, after touching an all-time low of 25 cents during the day yesterday. Shares have lost more than 90 percent from its 52-week high of $5.92 last July. Today they trade at 60 cents each.

On Tuesday, research firm IBISWorld predicted that fewer Americans will visit U.S. amusement parks this year and admissions will improve only slightly in 2009. Is this really news to anyone?

Something else is happening. Someone is dumping shares in a big way.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Sherwin Williams Beats Estimates

Sherwin Williams (SHW) posted results this mornings and more than a few people are going to be surprised.

Profit for the quarter slid to $171.7 million, or $1.45 per share, from $202.6 million, or $1.52 per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue edged up about 1 percent to $2.23 billion from $2.2 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, predicted a profit of $1.38 per share on revenue of $2.19 billion.

Sherwin-Williams said acquisitions and strong global results partly offset what Christopher M. Connor, company chairman and chief executive, called “an unprecedented downturn in the U.S. housing market that is both deep and wide.”

How well did the International Group do? Seven acquisitions completed after the second quarter of 2007 increased consolidated net sales 2.4% in the quarter and 2.5% in the first six months. Favorable currency translation rate changes increased consolidated net sales 1.1% in the quarter and 1.3% in the first six months.

Acquisitions and currency translation rate changes had a combined favorable impact on diluted net income per common share of approximately $.02 per share in the quarter.

The Global Group’s net sales stated in U.S. dollars increased $54.6 million, or 12.6%, to $488.9 million in the quarter and $114.3 million, or 13.7%, to $950.8 million in the first six months due primarily to volume gains, selling price increases, currency translation impact and acquisitions. Favorable currency translation rate changes increased net sales of the Global Group by 5.8% in the quarter and 6.3% in the first six months. Acquisitions increased this Group’s net sales in U.S. dollars by 3.8% in the quarter and 3.7% in the first six months.

This part really surprised me, domestic net sales in the Paint Stores Group decreased $10.4 million, or 0.8%, to $1.355 billion in the quarter and $30.2 million, or 1.2%, to $2.386 billion in the first six months due primarily to soft domestic architectural paint sales in the new residential, residential repaint, DIY and commercial markets as well as weak sales in non-paint categories. Acquisitions added 2.6% to this Group’s net sales in the quarter and 2.9% in the first six months. Net sales from stores open for more than twelve calendar months decreased 4.5% in the quarter and 5.4% in the first six months over last year’s comparable periods.

I would have expect a much greater decline. This really does bode very well for the eventual turn in housing. If we can see housing conditions not seen since the Depression, and only see a 4.5% sales decline, when housing normalizes, things will look just great.

The Company acquired 2.1 million shares of its common stock through open market purchases during the quarter and 6.2 million shares during the first six months. The Company had remaining authorization at June 30, 2008 to purchase 20.8 million shares.

Looking forward:
“During the third quarter of 2008, we anticipate consolidated net sales will be slightly below last year’s third quarter. We expect diluted net income per common share for the third quarter will be in the range of $1.20 to $1.45 per share compared to $1.55 per share last year. For the full year 2008, we are reaffirming our June 3, 2008 guidance that we anticipate consolidated net sales will be slightly lower than 2007. We are also reaffirming our June 3, 2008 guidance that we expect diluted net income per common share for full year 2008 will be in the range of $3.60 to $4.10 per share compared to $4.70 per share earned in 2007.” CEO Chris Connor

You know, great management always manages to steer through tough times and come out stronger. With lead litigation effectively behind it and results holding their own despite unprecedented conditions, Connor is doing just that with Sherwin.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW

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Harley Davidson Crushes Estimates

So, maybe it would seem high gas prices are providing a buffer for Harley Davidson (HOG) against the economy?

Harley-Davidson (HOG) reported Q2 EPS of $0.95 this morning, 19 cents better than estimates. Revenue for the quarter was $1.57 billion vs. consensus of $1.4 billion.

“During the second quarter we shipped 80,326 Harley-Davidson® motorcycles to our dealers and distributors around the world. While this result exceeds our guidance range of 76,000 to 80,000 units for the quarter, it is a decrease of 15.6 percent from the year-ago period. This decrease reflects the impact of the shipment reduction we announced April 17th in response to ongoing weakness in the U.S. economy,” said Jim Ziemer, CEO.

For the first six months of 2008, revenue totaled $2.88 billion, a 2.9 percent increase over the year-ago period. Earnings per share were $1.74, a decrease of 7.9 percent compared to the same period last year.

Through the first six months of this year, shipments of Harley-Davidson motorcycles were 152,194 units, a 6.6 percent decrease compared to last year’s 162,878 units.

The Company expects to ship between 74,000 and 78,000 Harley-Davidson motorcycles during the third quarter of 2008. For the full year of 2008, Harley-Davidson still plans to ship between 303,500 and 307,500 units. The Company continues to expect full-year EPS of $3.00 to $3.18.

The Company repurchased 1.3 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $50.0 million during the second quarter of 2008. On June 29, 2008, the Company had 235.3 million shares of common stock outstanding. As of June 29, 2008, there were 19.3 million shares remaining on a board- approved share repurchase authorization.

When one consider the current economic environment and credit conditions out there, these results really are fantastic. Far from a “luxury item”, it would seem motorcycles, especially Harley are becoming the alternative of choice for gas pained consumers.

Here is the kicker, when credit conditions improve, sales ought to increase even further. One really ought not expect oil and gas prices to fall very far anytime soon so motorcycles as an alternative will remain while becoming more affordable.

International sales, the current growth of the company grew 11%. What will be interesting and I hope it is asked on the earnings call is what contribution can be expected from the recent acquisition. Also, can someone ask is the double digit growth these is expected to continue for a while?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long HOG

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AutoNation's Jackson on $4 Gas…..Good

AutoNation’s (AN) CEO Mike Jackson was on NBC’s Nightly News the other night.

Here is the appearance:

Now, Jackson is both being right and a little self-serving which, as a shareholder is just fine. $4 gas for a prolonged period will lead to a fundamental shift in consumer behavior. The tens of millions of SUV’s that have been sold in the past decade are going to be traded in for smaller, more efficient models in droves.

As the largest auto-dealer in the nation, Jackson (and shareholders) will benefit from that activity. As gas prices inch higher ($4.25 around here) that activity will begin sooner and become greater. Good….

While auto sales are currently down (along with AN’s stock price), this is not an evaporated demand situation. It isn’t like retail where I may pass on something and just never get it. People need cars as they age and deteriorate (or trade in a gas guzzler). The demand builds over time as the purchases are put off, then it releases and the longer the build, the faster the release.

The key here is Jackson’s market share. As dealerships close, Jackson is getting an even bigger piece of a shrinking pie without expending more capital to do so. The Kiplinger Letter recently predicted 15 million auto units to be sold this year. Here is what got me. They said “expect 1,200 dealerships, mostly US only brands to be gone by the end of the year”.

Since they will not be Jackson’s, this is good news for AutoNation shareholders.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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AutoNation’s Jackson on $4 Gas…..Good

AutoNation’s (AN) CEO Mike Jackson was on NBC’s Nightly News the other night.

Here is the appearance:

Now, Jackson is both being right and a little self-serving which, as a shareholder is just fine. $4 gas for a prolonged period will lead to a fundamental shift in consumer behavior. The tens of millions of SUV’s that have been sold in the past decade are going to be traded in for smaller, more efficient models in droves.

As the largest auto-dealer in the nation, Jackson (and shareholders) will benefit from that activity. As gas prices inch higher ($4.25 around here) that activity will begin sooner and become greater. Good….

While auto sales are currently down (along with AN’s stock price), this is not an evaporated demand situation. It isn’t like retail where I may pass on something and just never get it. People need cars as they age and deteriorate (or trade in a gas guzzler). The demand builds over time as the purchases are put off, then it releases and the longer the build, the faster the release.

The key here is Jackson’s market share. As dealerships close, Jackson is getting an even bigger piece of a shrinking pie without expending more capital to do so. The Kiplinger Letter recently predicted 15 million auto units to be sold this year. Here is what got me. They said “expect 1,200 dealerships, mostly US only brands to be gone by the end of the year”.

Since they will not be Jackson’s, this is good news for AutoNation shareholders.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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Thursday's Links

Callan, Naked Shorting, SEC, Heating oil

– Finally http://feeds.wsjonline.com/~r/wsj/xml/rss/3_7011/~3/336326064/SB121614671139755285.html

– Hasn’t this been illegal anyway?

– Why are they doing this? What about the folks who got themselves into this mess?

– This is when things get ugly, AC can be turned off, heat, no

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Thursday’s Links

Callan, Naked Shorting, SEC, Heating oil

– Finally http://feeds.wsjonline.com/~r/wsj/xml/rss/3_7011/~3/336326064/SB121614671139755285.html

– Hasn’t this been illegal anyway?

– Why are they doing this? What about the folks who got themselves into this mess?

– This is when things get ugly, AC can be turned off, heat, no

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Sherwin Williams: Time For Shareholders to Sue RI?

More thoughts on litigation by shareholders of Sherwin Williams (SHW) vs The State of Rhode Island

The Court Said:
“we conclude that the state has not and cannot allege any set of facts to support its public nuisance claim that would establish that defendants interfered with a public right or that defendants were in control of the lead pigment they, or their predecessors, manufactured at the time it caused harm to Rhode Island children.”

They continued:

“defendants were not in control of any lead pigment at the time the lead caused harm to children in Rhode Island, making defendants unable to abate the alleged nuisance, the standard remedy in a public nuisance action.”

Here is a veiled rebuke of the original trial Judge Silverstien:
“This Court is bound by the law and can provide justice only to the extent that the law allows. Law consists for the most part of enactments that the General Assembly provides to us, whereas justice extends farther. Justice is based on the relationship among people, but it must be based upon the rule of law. This Court is powerless to fashion independently a cause of action…..”

This is what Silverstien did in the original trial by even letting it go forward as a public nuisance action.

Here is the best part:
“After all, the judiciary’s “duty [is] to determine the law, not to make the law.” City of Pawtucket v. Sundlun, 662 A.2d 40, 57 (R.I. 1995). “To do otherwise, even if based on sound policy and the best of intentions, would be to substitute our will for that of a body democratically elected by the citizens of this state and to overplay our proper role in the theater of Rhode Island government.” DeSantis v. Prelle, 891 A.2d 873, 881 (R.I. 2006).”

In January 2000, defendants moved to dismiss all counts of the state’s complaint pursuant to Rule 12(b)(6) of the Superior Court Rules of Civil Procedure. With respect to the public nuisance claim, defendants asserted that they did not control the lead pigment at the time it caused harm to Rhode Island children and that, therefore, they cannot be held liable for public nuisance.

Now, where have I read that before? Oh yea…..I the RISC decision, almost verbatim!!!!!!!

In 2000 Sherwin asked for the State’s Claim to be dismissed for the very reason it was dismissed by the RISC almost a decade later. Judge Silverstien, ignoring the actual laws of the State of Rhode Island dismissed Sherwin’s motion. 8.5 years of legal fees that should have never been incurred.

What Rhode Island did was the equivalent of charging the person who laid the asphalt on the highway with murder because a pothole on the road 3 decades later caused an accident in which someone died. They knew the correct claim, product liability was un-winnable so they trumped up another charge. Why the dramatic analogy? Had they prevailed, lead paint would have been the next asbestos and the defendants would have faced bankruptcy just as asbestos defendants like USG (USG) and Owens Corning (OC) did as suits would have mushroomed.

In dismissing the Illinois public nuisance lead litigation, the court made the following analogy should public nuisance become defined the way states wanted it to:

“Similarly, cell phones, DVD players, and other lawful products may be misused by drivers, creating a risk of harm to others. In an increasing number of jurisdictions, state legislatures have acted to ban the use of these otherwise legal products while driving. A public right to be free from the threat that other drivers
may defy these laws would permit nuisance liability to be imposed on an endless list of manufacturers, distributors, and retailers of manufactured products that are intended to be, or are likely to be, used by drivers, distracting them and causing injury to others.”

Again, 8.5 years of legal expenses that according the the RISC, if the laws of the State has be applied, should have never been incurred.

As proof of this, the RISC, in its decision said “We agree with defendants that the public nuisance claim should have been dismissed at the outset because the state has not and cannot allege that defendants’ conduct interfered with a public right or that defendants were in control of lead pigment at the time it caused harm to children in Rhode Island.”

“For the alleged public nuisance to be actionable, the state would have had to
assert that defendants not only manufactured the lead pigment but also controlled that pigment at the time it caused injury to children in Rhode Island and there is no allegation of such control. Translation? The State did not even allege the necessary elements for a public nuisance case!! Yet, Judge Silverstien allowed the action to go to trial. Kind of like charging someone with theft when nothing is stolen.

Am I right? Just ask the RISC who said “In denying defendants’ motion to dismiss, the highly respected trial justice, however well intentioned, departed from the traditional requirements of common law public nuisance.”

8.5 years of unnecessary legal fees, not just in Rhode Island but in New Jersey, Ohio, Wisconsin, California and Missouri. Suits were filed in all these jurisdictions AFTER the case in Rhode Island was brought to trial.

Let’s look at numbers now:

The suit is not about lost stock price appreciation. That would be a guesstimate based on today’s environment. How would we argue what mattered more, the litigation or housing etc. We need a number we can prove. Take the total legal fees incurred and multiply them by Sherwin’s return on equity (29% average since litigation began) and lets find out what it cost us in earnings.

The reason to do this is because that money, if it had been left in Sherwin’s control would have grown at that rate annually based on the last 8 years results. Now, were that money not spent on the litigation, we would have seen the results directly on the bottom line so we need to find out the EPS impact of the litigation.

I have spaced the legal fees equally over the course of 8 years. There is now way to know when what was incurred. I have scoured SEC filings and cannot ind the answer. Each amount is compounded at 29% annually over 8 years then I divided it by the 119 million shares outstanding.

$50 million gives us $223 million in equity and $1.87 in EPS lost

$100 million gives us $446 million in equity and $3.74 in EPS lost

$250 million gives us $1.16 billion in equity and $9.74 in EPS lost.

$500 million gives us $2.3 billion in equity and $19.32 in EPS lost.

Now, you would apply a moderate PE of 15 times each amount and we can come up with a per share appreciation (or lack thereof) due to the litigation.

Sherwin or its shareholders need to pursue these amounts (adjusted for details of course) against RI. It is justified because, as the RISC said “the public nuisance claim should have been dismissed at the outset”.

The irony here is that I am sure they could find someone to take it on a contingency fee. Should Sherwin not do it, a class action shareholder suit would be the way to go. We are the owners of the company and have been economically harmed by the persecution err… prosecution.

Clearly I am waiting to see what Sherwin does as rumors are now they will pursue legal costs but things are getting rolling on this end.

Interested parties may email me.

For everything lead, email James Cordrey at Lexis/Nexis and visit Jane Genova at Law and More

Full decision:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long SHW, none

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Thursday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
QLogic (QLGC)- Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy
Massey Energy (MEE)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
PF Chang’s (PFCB)- Wedbush Morgan Sell » Hold
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Walgreen (WAG)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
SW Energy (SWN)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Ultra Petroleum (UPL)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
American Eagle (AEO)- Needham Underperform » Hold
Brigham Exploration (BEXP)- JP Morgan Underweight » Overweight
Concho Resources (CXO)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Arena Resources (ARD)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Bill Barrett (BBG)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
PF Chang’s (PFCB)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Nalco (NLC)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Borg Warner (BWA)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Downgrades
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)- Edward Jones Buy » Hold
US Bancorp (USB)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Navigators Group (NAVG)- Fox Pitt Outperform » In Line
Nymagic (NYM)- Fox Pitt Outperform » In Line
Procter & Gamble (PG)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Sun Microsystems (JAVA)- Cross Research Buy » Hold
Orion Energy Systems (OESX)- Northland Securities Outperform » Market Perform
St. Mary Lnd/Expl (SM)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Research In Motion (RIMM)- Needham Hold » Underperform
CSG Systems (CSGS)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Cardiome Pharma (CRME)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
eResearchTech (ERES)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Underperform
CB&I (CBI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Penn Virginia (PVA)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
O2Micro (OIIM)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Brigham Exploration (BEXP)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
SAIC (SAI)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Informatica (INFA)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Lev Pharmaceuticals (LEVP)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Veraz Networks (VRAZ)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Cisco Systems (CSCO)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
ADC Telecom (ADCT)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Optium (OPTM)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
ADTRAN (ADTN)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Ciena (CIEN)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Underperform
EW Scripps (SSP)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Underweight
Esco Tech (ESE)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Time Warner Tcom (TWTC)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Washington Mutual (WM)- Edward Jones Hold » Sell

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
QLogic (QLGC)- Pacific Growth Equities Neutral » Buy
Massey Energy (MEE)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
PF Chang’s (PFCB)- Wedbush Morgan Sell » Hold
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)- BMO Capital Markets Underperform » Market Perform
Walgreen (WAG)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
SW Energy (SWN)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Ultra Petroleum (UPL)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
American Eagle (AEO)- Needham Underperform » Hold
Brigham Exploration (BEXP)- JP Morgan Underweight » Overweight
Concho Resources (CXO)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Arena Resources (ARD)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
Bill Barrett (BBG)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Neutral » Buy
PF Chang’s (PFCB)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy
Nalco (NLC)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Borg Warner (BWA)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform

Downgrades
Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS)- Edward Jones Buy » Hold
US Bancorp (USB)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
Navigators Group (NAVG)- Fox Pitt Outperform » In Line
Nymagic (NYM)- Fox Pitt Outperform » In Line
Procter & Gamble (PG)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Sun Microsystems (JAVA)- Cross Research Buy » Hold
Orion Energy Systems (OESX)- Northland Securities Outperform » Market Perform
St. Mary Lnd/Expl (SM)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
Research In Motion (RIMM)- Needham Hold » Underperform
CSG Systems (CSGS)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
Cardiome Pharma (CRME)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
eResearchTech (ERES)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Underperform
CB&I (CBI)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Penn Virginia (PVA)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
O2Micro (OIIM)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
Brigham Exploration (BEXP)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
SAIC (SAI)- Cowen & Co Outperform » Neutral
Informatica (INFA)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Lev Pharmaceuticals (LEVP)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Veraz Networks (VRAZ)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Cisco Systems (CSCO)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
ADC Telecom (ADCT)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Optium (OPTM)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
ADTRAN (ADTN)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Underperform
Ciena (CIEN)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Underperform
EW Scripps (SSP)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Underweight
Esco Tech (ESE)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Time Warner Tcom (TWTC)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Washington Mutual (WM)- Edward Jones Hold » Sell

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Wells Fargo: Earnings and a Dividend Increase From a Bank? What?

Just a yesterday I said, “It is getting to the point where you have Goldman (GS), JP Morgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) as the cream of the crop in financials..” Wishing now I had listened to myself and bought more…

Wells Fargo reported today and:

Net income of $1.8 billion compared with $2.3 billion a year ago
— Diluted earnings per share of $0.53 compared with $0.67 a year ago (estimates were for 50 cents)
— Record revenue of $11.5 billion, up 16 percent from prior year and
34 percent (annualized) from prior quarter
— Record cross-sell for both retail and commercial customers
— Provision for credit losses of $3.0 billion (including reserve
build of $1.5 billion)
— Positive operating leverage (revenue growth of 16 percent; expense
growth of 2 percent from prior year)
— Average loans up 18 percent from prior year and 8 percent
(annualized) from prior quarter
— Average earning assets up 20 percent from prior year and 15 percent
(annualized) from prior quarter
— Net interest margin of 4.92 percent, up 23 basis points from prior
quarter
— Tier 1 capital of 8.24 percent, up from 7.92 percent at March 31,
2008, and 7.59 percent at December 31, 2007

“Wells Fargo continued to strengthen its franchise during the second quarter,” said President and CEO John Stumpf. “Earnings per share were 14 cents below that of last year due to $2.3 billion of higher provision expense, including a credit reserve build of $1.5 billion (30 cents per share). We were able to lend more to current customers where we believed it was prudent and properly priced. We grew core deposits while reducing funding costs. We achieved record cross-sell results with our retail and commercial customers – a testament to our relationship-based strategy and our 160,000 team members who serve our customers. We are open for business and getting lots of it. We also continued to benefit from opportunities in this environment to gain new business and customers through selective acquisitions. We maintained a strong balance sheet and, for the 21st consecutive year, increased our dividend. We’re still affected by the weak economy, but we believe we’re one of the best positioned in financial services to grow through this adversity and to build an even stronger company for our team members, customers, communities and shareholders.”

Now, is that the most confident you have heard a banks exec is a very long time or what? Wait, let me rephrase, confident and you actually believed what he had to say?

Here is the thing. Unlike the pother banks who are writing down loans, shrinking business and recording losses, Wells is still profitable and growing. When these write downs become write up, earnings will explode. A dividend increase? Did anyone actually expect that?

Wells is superbly positioned (other than JP Morgan (JPM) and Goldman, they are the only one positioned) to take a run at a struggling bank like Wachovia (WB). In one fell swoop they could expand their base into the Southeast and dramatically expand their footprint. Wachovia may get whacked when they report another billion dollar loss soon. I would be surprised not to see Wells start picking up smaller regional bank.

Here is the CFO discussing the results:

Earnings call transcript

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC,WB,GS, none

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More on SEC Chief Chris Cox

Dealbreaker has it right..

“Every time this man speaks he adds uncertainty and regulatory risk to the markets.”

Read full post

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FOMC Minutes

Key paragraph…

“In the Committee’s discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, members generally agreed that the risks to growth had diminished somewhat since the time of the last FOMC meeting while the upside risks to inflation had increased. Nonetheless, the risks to growth remained tilted to the downside. Conditions in some financial markets had improved, but many financial institutions continued to experience significant credit losses and balance sheet pressures, and in these circumstances credit availability was likely to remain constrained for some time. At the same time, however, the near-term outlook for inflation had deteriorated, and the risks that underlying inflation pressures could prove to be greater than anticipated appeared to have risen. Members commented that the continued strong increases in energy and other commodity prices would prompt a difficult adjustment process involving both lower growth and higher rates of inflation in the near term. Members were also concerned about the heightened potential in current circumstances for an upward drift in long-run inflation expectations. With increased upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations, members believed that the next change in the stance of policy could well be an increase in the funds rate; indeed, one member thought that policy should be firmed at this meeting. However, in the view of most members, the outlook for both economic activity and price pressures remained very uncertain, and thus the timing and magnitude of future policy actions was quite unclear. Against this backdrop, most members judged that an unchanged federal funds rate at this meeting represented an appropriate balancing of the risks to the economic outlook and was consistent, for now, with a policy path that would support an eventual decline in both inflation and unemployment. Nonetheless, members recognized that circumstances could change quickly and noted that they might need to respond promptly to incoming information about the evolution of risks.”

Rates on their way up……..good

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SEC Tries to Eliminate Free Market, Promises to Find Patsy

The SEC said “As a result (of short selling), the prices of securities may artificially and unnecessarily decline well below the price level that would have resulted from the normal price discovery process,” the SEC said. “If significant financial institutions are involved, this chain of events can threaten disruption of our markets.” Well perfect….more rules they will not enforce to protect people from themselves.

The agency’s rule change would prevent investors from making “naked” short sales of the biggest financial stocks (an investor sells stock that has not yet been borrowed). These companies would include Merrill (MER), Citi (C), Lehman (LEH), Morgan (MS), Fannie (FNM), Freddie (FRE), Wachovia (WB). Bank of America (BAC) and almost any other financial of any significance. Naked shorting is not always done intentionally as many times broker-dealers will accidentally fail to deliver stocks to investors who have arranged to borrow a stock. If it is done intentionally, it is illegal. If not intentional, it is a mulligan? Why is the investor being held up to scrutiny here? Why isn’t the SEC coming down on broker-dealers for doing it?

I cannot short shares without going through my broker, if they allow me to do it without having shares available to borrow, why is it my fault? They are the ones with the information, not me.

“Today’s commission action aims to stop unlawful manipulation through naked short selling that threatens the stability of financial institutions,” SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said in a statement.

The “new /old” rule would require a short seller to borrow the securities before executing the sale. It would also require the investor to deliver the securities on the settlement date. Hasn’t naked shorting been a no-no for a long time? Is this like Cox doing a Dean Wermer and now putting the investor community on “double secret probation”?

Now, As of June 30, shorts held about 14% of Fannie’s outstanding stock, almost 12% of Freddie’s, and 10% of Lehman’s stock. Does it matter that all three are sitting on billions in losses and actually may go under? If their performance did not suck, the shorts would ignore them. This is the genesis for Cox finally coming in off the golf course.

Bill Fleckstien said, “While no one in Washington did their job, now they are trying to blame short sellers,” he continued, “Short sellers don’t make stocks go down. If a short seller was trying to push a stock to a price where it didn’t belong, it would come back right away.”

All this while the SEC subpoenaed Deutsche Bank (DB), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) in a probe of suspected manipulation of Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Bear Stearns shares. The SEC requested trading records and e-mails.

They also sent subpoenas to more than 50 hedge-fund advisers, seeking trading and communications data related to short-selling and options trading in Bear Stearns or Lehman.

Here is what will happen. Cox and Crew are going to find their “patsy”. Some poor slob buried deep in a trading floor is going down and his boss will resign. They will find an email from the guy who said to someone “hey did you here the latest on Lehman?”. The rumor will have turned out to be false but no matter the intent, this lackey is going down. Then the SEC will hold a press conference, thump its chest and claim to be looking out for the “little guy” and protecting them from “rumor mongering price manipulators”.

The executives that caused the billions in losses are going to just walk away with their multi-million dollar paydays and Johnny, the one year out of business school derivatives trader gets 3-5 and a million dollar fine. Go Chris!!!!!

This is so predictable….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GS,WB,C, none

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