Categories
Articles

Morgan Stanley's (MS) Results Fall: Your Surprised?

The difference here between Morgan and Citi (C), Lehman (LEH) and Merrill (MER) is that CEO John Mack has not been running his mouth around town telling everyone “all is well”.

“Given the turbulent environment this quarter, we stayed close to shore and continued strengthening the Firm’s capital and liquidity positions,” John J. Mack, Morgan Stanley’s chairman and chief executive, said in a statement. “The difficult market conditions and lower levels of client activity impacted our results, particularly in fixed income and asset management.”

See, the things is that no one (or at least no one should have) expected the results to be good. So , why tell everyone they would be.

By being quiet, Mack, at least for now has escaped the fate of all his peer except those at Goldman Sachs (GS) who, it should be noted have also kept their mouths shut.

Morgan’s profit, amounting to 95 cents a share, was down from the $2.36 billion it earned last year. Howver, they managed to slightly exceed expectations of 92 cents a share. Revenues from its fixed-income sales and trading unit fell 85% from the same time last year to $414 million, due to losses in mortgage trading and lower revenues in other products.

The firm reported a $519 million loss from loan commitments, including those made to private equity firms. While it lost money on hedges, it saw some gains from marking some holdings to market.

All in all, nothing out of the ordinary, bad, but nothing outlandish. Had Mack been running around telling everyone not to worry, he might be getting nervous about now.

Has anyone learned this lesson yet?????????

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C, GS, None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Morgan Stanley’s (MS) Results Fall: Your Surprised?

The difference here between Morgan and Citi (C), Lehman (LEH) and Merrill (MER) is that CEO John Mack has not been running his mouth around town telling everyone “all is well”.

“Given the turbulent environment this quarter, we stayed close to shore and continued strengthening the Firm’s capital and liquidity positions,” John J. Mack, Morgan Stanley’s chairman and chief executive, said in a statement. “The difficult market conditions and lower levels of client activity impacted our results, particularly in fixed income and asset management.”

See, the things is that no one (or at least no one should have) expected the results to be good. So , why tell everyone they would be.

By being quiet, Mack, at least for now has escaped the fate of all his peer except those at Goldman Sachs (GS) who, it should be noted have also kept their mouths shut.

Morgan’s profit, amounting to 95 cents a share, was down from the $2.36 billion it earned last year. Howver, they managed to slightly exceed expectations of 92 cents a share. Revenues from its fixed-income sales and trading unit fell 85% from the same time last year to $414 million, due to losses in mortgage trading and lower revenues in other products.

The firm reported a $519 million loss from loan commitments, including those made to private equity firms. While it lost money on hedges, it saw some gains from marking some holdings to market.

All in all, nothing out of the ordinary, bad, but nothing outlandish. Had Mack been running around telling everyone not to worry, he might be getting nervous about now.

Has anyone learned this lesson yet?????????

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long C, GS, None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Western Sizzlin Chairman's Letter

Hey, this is a must read. It is an extremely candid and detailed resuscitation of the company, Western Sizzlin (WEST).

Read the letter here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Western Sizzlin Chairman’s Letter

Hey, this is a must read. It is an extremely candid and detailed resuscitation of the company, Western Sizzlin (WEST).

Read the letter here:

Disclosure (“none” means no position):none

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Sears' "Going Private"? Not So Fast

This has been going around for a long time now so let’s take a look because as the price falls and Sears’ (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert continues buying shares, some folks are claiming his goal is to take the company private and shareholders, except him, will get “screwed” for lack of a better term.

While Lampert may continue to buy shares and increase his ownership percentage, Sears’ is not “going private” for a number of reasons.

From the SEC Website:
“If the transaction is initiated by an affiliate (an insider) of the company, or the company could be deemed to be making an acquisition of its own shares Rule 13e-3 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 requires the affiliate and/or the company to file a Schedule 13E-3 with the SEC. When Rule 13e-3 applies, the company is said to be “going private” under SEC rules. While SEC rules don’t prevent companies from going private, they do require companies to provide information to shareholders about the transaction that caused the company to go private. The company also may have to file a merger proxy statement or a tender offer document with the SEC.

The filing of a Schedule 13E-3 is also required when issuer-initiated or affiliated transactions result in a company’s publicly held securities no longer being traded on a national securities exchange or an inter-dealer quotation system, such as Nasdaq.

The Schedule 13E-3 requires a discussion of the purposes of the transaction, any alternatives that the company considered, and whether the transaction is fair to all shareholders. The Schedule also discloses whether and why any of its directors disagreed with the transaction or abstained from voting on the transaction and whether a majority of directors who are not company employees approved the transaction.

Going private transactions require shareholders to make difficult decisions. To protect shareholders, some states have adopted corporate takeover statutes that provide shareholders with dissenter’s rights. These statutes provide shareholders the opportunity to sell their shares on the terms offered, to challenge the transaction in court, or to hold on to the shares. Once the transaction is concluded, remaining shareholders may find it very difficult to sell their retained shares because of a limited trading market.”

So the “Lampert can force a share sale” is erroneous. While he could take the shares off the market by “going private”, he cannot force you to sell your shares to him if Sears’ decided to go private. You could still opt to retain your ownership percentage. It is different from a merger in which you “exchange shares” from one company for another.

“Fairness of offer”. This was a large bone of contention in the failed Sears takeover of Sears Canada. Sears USA owned 53% of the outstanding shares of Sears CA at the time of the offer. The buyout was fought in court by minority shareholders who eventually prevailed. The fact that Lampert has been buying share at prices far above where they sit now, would eliminate any argument he would make that a “going private” price he is offering does NOT violate this element.

Also, current minority shareholder Bill Ackman, who lead the fight against Lampert in his Sears CA bid is now a Sears Holdings shareholder. Ackman bought in at prices well above current valuations and anyone who knows anything about him know he would fight any “going private” bid below the $100 plus a share he paid.

Let’s also not forget the conflict of interest here. Using shareholder money to eventually take the company from them for yourself despite public comments to the contrary would spark a wave of lawsuits Lampert has no interest in spending the next 10 years fighting.

That being said, roughly 60% of Sears’ shares are held by Lampert, Management and Funds that are value oriented. What is more likely is that Lampert will continue to repurchase shares and shrink the float. Now, consider this, when you subtract short shares (26 million) and shares held by long-termers, it leaves only 27 million shares actively trading or 20% of the total.

At today’s prices that means $2.1 billion can buy the remaining trading float and then you create a short squeeze like you have never seen as shorts rush to buy shares that virtually do not exist to cover their positions.

Anyone want to bet this is Lampert real game? Keep buying up what trades and then watch the shorts cut each other throats to cover. It would be justice for him and real profitable for shareholders as the buying without selling would cause share prices to rocket up.

What does Lampert gain buy going private? If the goal is to attain wealth, then isn’t having Sears publicly traded the way to go? Won’t his wealth climb faster that way than if Sears is privately held? Maybe he takes it private, “fixes” it and then spins it back out for a a nice profit? Well, if that is true, then why not just keep your shares and ride the wave? Either way, if his goal is the same as yours, where is the problem?

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long SHLD

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Sears’ "Going Private"? Not So Fast

This has been going around for a long time now so let’s take a look because as the price falls and Sears’ (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert continues buying shares, some folks are claiming his goal is to take the company private and shareholders, except him, will get “screwed” for lack of a better term.

While Lampert may continue to buy shares and increase his ownership percentage, Sears’ is not “going private” for a number of reasons.

From the SEC Website:
“If the transaction is initiated by an affiliate (an insider) of the company, or the company could be deemed to be making an acquisition of its own shares Rule 13e-3 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 requires the affiliate and/or the company to file a Schedule 13E-3 with the SEC. When Rule 13e-3 applies, the company is said to be “going private” under SEC rules. While SEC rules don’t prevent companies from going private, they do require companies to provide information to shareholders about the transaction that caused the company to go private. The company also may have to file a merger proxy statement or a tender offer document with the SEC.

The filing of a Schedule 13E-3 is also required when issuer-initiated or affiliated transactions result in a company’s publicly held securities no longer being traded on a national securities exchange or an inter-dealer quotation system, such as Nasdaq.

The Schedule 13E-3 requires a discussion of the purposes of the transaction, any alternatives that the company considered, and whether the transaction is fair to all shareholders. The Schedule also discloses whether and why any of its directors disagreed with the transaction or abstained from voting on the transaction and whether a majority of directors who are not company employees approved the transaction.

Going private transactions require shareholders to make difficult decisions. To protect shareholders, some states have adopted corporate takeover statutes that provide shareholders with dissenter’s rights. These statutes provide shareholders the opportunity to sell their shares on the terms offered, to challenge the transaction in court, or to hold on to the shares. Once the transaction is concluded, remaining shareholders may find it very difficult to sell their retained shares because of a limited trading market.”

So the “Lampert can force a share sale” is erroneous. While he could take the shares off the market by “going private”, he cannot force you to sell your shares to him if Sears’ decided to go private. You could still opt to retain your ownership percentage. It is different from a merger in which you “exchange shares” from one company for another.

“Fairness of offer”. This was a large bone of contention in the failed Sears takeover of Sears Canada. Sears USA owned 53% of the outstanding shares of Sears CA at the time of the offer. The buyout was fought in court by minority shareholders who eventually prevailed. The fact that Lampert has been buying share at prices far above where they sit now, would eliminate any argument he would make that a “going private” price he is offering does NOT violate this element.

Also, current minority shareholder Bill Ackman, who lead the fight against Lampert in his Sears CA bid is now a Sears Holdings shareholder. Ackman bought in at prices well above current valuations and anyone who knows anything about him know he would fight any “going private” bid below the $100 plus a share he paid.

Let’s also not forget the conflict of interest here. Using shareholder money to eventually take the company from them for yourself despite public comments to the contrary would spark a wave of lawsuits Lampert has no interest in spending the next 10 years fighting.

That being said, roughly 60% of Sears’ shares are held by Lampert, Management and Funds that are value oriented. What is more likely is that Lampert will continue to repurchase shares and shrink the float. Now, consider this, when you subtract short shares (26 million) and shares held by long-termers, it leaves only 27 million shares actively trading or 20% of the total.

At today’s prices that means $2.1 billion can buy the remaining trading float and then you create a short squeeze like you have never seen as shorts rush to buy shares that virtually do not exist to cover their positions.

Anyone want to bet this is Lampert real game? Keep buying up what trades and then watch the shorts cut each other throats to cover. It would be justice for him and real profitable for shareholders as the buying without selling would cause share prices to rocket up.

What does Lampert gain buy going private? If the goal is to attain wealth, then isn’t having Sears publicly traded the way to go? Won’t his wealth climb faster that way than if Sears is privately held? Maybe he takes it private, “fixes” it and then spins it back out for a a nice profit? Well, if that is true, then why not just keep your shares and ride the wave? Either way, if his goal is the same as yours, where is the problem?

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long SHLD

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Wednesday's Links

Trump & Rosie, Dodd, Dimon, Elian

– I could not agree more

– “I was a member of a VIP Club but was unaware it would give me special privileges”???????????? WTF does VIP stand for!!!!!!!! Is there a bigger fraud that Chris Dodd?

– No kidding Jamie

Can you blame him?

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Wednesday’s Links

Trump & Rosie, Dodd, Dimon, Elian

– I could not agree more

– “I was a member of a VIP Club but was unaware it would give me special privileges”???????????? WTF does VIP stand for!!!!!!!! Is there a bigger fraud that Chris Dodd?

– No kidding Jamie

Can you blame him?

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Wednesday's Upgrades and downgrades


UPGRADES
Wyeth (WYE)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Worthington (WOR)- Longbow Neutral » Buy
Weingarten Realty (WRI)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Ramco-Gershenson (RPT)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Pennsylvania R.E.I.T. (PEI)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
National Retail Properties (NNN)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Capital Lease Funding (LSE)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Kite Realty (KRG)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Glimcher Realty (GRT)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Cedar Shopping Centers (CDR)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
CBL & Assoc (CBL)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Xyratex (XRTX)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Ormat Tech (ORA)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Elizabeth Arden (RDEN)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Double Hull Tankers (DHT)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
CME Group (CME)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Hovnanian Entrpr (HOV)- UBS Sell » Neutral

DOWNGRADES
VeraSun Energy (VSE)- Soleil Hold » Sell
Semtech (SMTC)- Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
Toreador Royalty (TRGL)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Strayer Education (STRA)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Adobe Systems (ADBE)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
America Movil SA (AMX)- Pali Research Neutral » Sell
Columbia Banc (CBBO)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Sell
Calgon Carbon (CCC)- Morgan Joseph Hold » Sell
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Sell
Cinemark (CNK)- Morgan Stanley Overweight » Equal-Weight
Tempur-Pedic (TPX)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
W-H Energy Svcs (WHQ)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd (VLCCF)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Citrix Systems (CTXS)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Wednesday’s Upgrades and downgrades


UPGRADES
Wyeth (WYE)- Leerink Swann Mkt Perform » Outperform
Worthington (WOR)- Longbow Neutral » Buy
Weingarten Realty (WRI)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Ramco-Gershenson (RPT)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Pennsylvania R.E.I.T. (PEI)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
National Retail Properties (NNN)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Capital Lease Funding (LSE)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Kite Realty (KRG)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Glimcher Realty (GRT)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Cedar Shopping Centers (CDR)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
CBL & Assoc (CBL)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
Xyratex (XRTX)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Ormat Tech (ORA)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Elizabeth Arden (RDEN)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform
Double Hull Tankers (DHT)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
CME Group (CME)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Hovnanian Entrpr (HOV)- UBS Sell » Neutral

DOWNGRADES
VeraSun Energy (VSE)- Soleil Hold » Sell
Semtech (SMTC)- Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
Toreador Royalty (TRGL)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Underperform
Strayer Education (STRA)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Adobe Systems (ADBE)- Kaufman Bros Buy » Hold
America Movil SA (AMX)- Pali Research Neutral » Sell
Columbia Banc (CBBO)- FTN Midwest Neutral » Sell
Calgon Carbon (CCC)- Morgan Joseph Hold » Sell
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Sell
Cinemark (CNK)- Morgan Stanley Overweight » Equal-Weight
Tempur-Pedic (TPX)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
W-H Energy Svcs (WHQ)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd (VLCCF)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Citrix Systems (CTXS)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Bond Insurer Buying????

There has been some intersting buying in shares of both Ambac (ABK) and MBIA (MBI)

Insiders:
MBIA’s Chairman Joseph Brown bought 159,000 shares of stock at $5.91 per share last week, giving him 2,611,456 shares of direct ownership.

Ambac’s Chairman and CEO Michael A. Callen bought 10,000 company shares at $2.60 per share. Director Laura Unger disclosed transactions from June 3 for purchases of 103,334 shares at $3.00 in two transactions. Jill Considine, Philip Duff, and Henry Wallace all also each bought 33,334 shares at $3.00 on June 3.

Big Fish:
Martin Whitman added to his holdings in Ambac (ABK) during the 3-months ended 2008-04-30 by 322.07%. He holds 9,707,362 shares as of 2008-04-30. Whitman also added to his holdings in MBIA Inc. (MBI) during the 3-months ended 2008-04-30 by 84.62%. He now holds 23,149,845 shares as of 2008-04-30.

Chris Davis added to his holdings in Ambac(ABK) during the 3-months ended 2008-03-31 by 108.9%. He holds 29,744,503 shares as of 2008-03-31.

Pershing’s Bill Ackman has dramatically reduced his short exposure to both insurers.

We first talked about this in early May and the situation for both has improved since then, not worsened. While that seems like a joke, it is the first time in a very long time we can say that.

Guys like Whitman are rarely wrong when it comes to these types of investments. Having insider pony up cash is also a real sign of support and future clarity. These folks are looking through the lenses at what is happening and must see something they like..I think it may be time to dabble soon.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

FireFox 3 Now Live

I have been using the beta version for a while now. If you like Internet Explorer, this will blow it away…

Go here to downloads the browser

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Some Housekeeping

Back from vacation…..

– Ought to be back to full posting tomorrow

– “Anon” comments. Please take three seconds and get an ID. It is way too time consuming to try to track a conversation of 40 comments when several are “anon”. Half the time people do not know who they are talking to or asking the same question ten times. If you want to be replied to, please get an ID. You may still comment as “anon” if you want but do not expect me (or others) to take the time to reply to you unless you get an ID. It really isn’t too much to ask…

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

A Readers Target (TGT) Story

It seems negative stories about Target (TGT) are getting more pervasive…

“I just figured I’d pass along my Target experience from this weekend. I have been looking for a flat panel TV for quite some time now and noticed a price on target.com for a tv which was buy instore only. I called the store down the jersey shore, my location at the time, to ensure availability and indeed it was. The following day, I went to the Target to purchase the TV however it was $160 more than the target.com price, as I was told the ads run Saturday thru Sunday and the sale had expired. I just got off the phone with the Target Customer Service rep who could do nothing for me even though I had the screen print shot of the sale price w/ no dates posted for expiration of the sale. I felt this went along the same line with your blog post related to their ridiculous return policy. Because of this, I went from buying myself a TV at Target, and possibly my father a father’s day TV gift (both $830 each + accessories), to buying nothing. So much for retailers wanting our money!”

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books

Categories
Articles

Tuesday's Links

Tilson, $250, Einhorn, Dykstra

– Whitney does a great job here taking the NY Times to task. The only thing more transparently biased than their political coverage in their business coverage.

– Want to see people in the NE freeze?

– Do they really think he views it as gambling?

– He wasn’t even really that good of a baseball player

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

↑ Grab this Headline Animator

Visit the ValuePlays Bookstore for Great Investing Books