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Aug. 1st: Yang Should Be Sweating It Out

Yahoo (YHOO) finally has set a date for its annual meeting and a showdown with Carl Icahn and his “Band of Billionaires” intent of crushing Jerry Yang

The WSJ Reports:
“Mr. Icahn said he is convinced that executives of Microsoft, which withdrew its takeover offer last month for Yahoo, no longer trust Mr. Yang and won’t make a new bid — as Mr. Icahn and many investors are hoping for — unless Mr. Yang and the company’s board are ousted.

“I’m very cynical about many of the boards and CEO’s in this country, but even I am amazed at the lengths that the Jerry Yang and the board went to entrench themselves in this situation,” Mr. Icahn said.”

Perhaps most damaging to Yang, has been the unsealing of court documents in which his efforts to unethically undermine Microsoft’s (MSFT) buyout are detailed, some of which I pointed out in February.

Portfolio.com reports:
“Yahoo C.E.O. Jerry Yang mapped out a scorched-earth defense against Microsoft, essentially arranging to encourage all 14,000 Yahoo employees to quit if Microsoft succeeded in buying the company earlier this year, newly released court documents suggest.

Yahoo executives also declined to tell its employees that Microsoft was prepared to offer them $1.5 billion in retention bonuses if they would stay with the company after a merger was completed, documents say.”

Yang also:

“As early as January 31, the day Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer e-mailed his offer to Yang, Microsoft made clear it wanted Yahoo “employees to be okay” and had earmarked “$1.5 billion for the retention of employees” in addition to the “$5 billion for [the] deal,” according to notes made that day by an unidentified Yahoo employee. But that fact was never conveyed to Yahoo’s employees.

Meanwhile, Yang was engineering a plan for a “massive employee walkout” in the aftermath of a Microsoft takeover by offering all of Yahoo’s 14,000 employees the right to quit his or her job and pocket 100 percent acceleration of their equity rights, if there was “substantial adverse alteration” of their jobs.

Yahoo’s compensation consultant calculated that the proposal would cost $1.5 billion, or 3.2 percent of the transaction price. “That’s nuts,” he concluded in an e-mail.

A Yahoo vice president wrote that it is “a bizarre outcome if people who stick around make off worse financially than people who [are] laid off.””

Anyone betting Icahn did not laugh out loud when he read the court documents? Talk about handing a shark a slab of raw meat!!

Not sure what Yang is thinking but he is acting like Yahoo is his own private company, not the shareholders.

Don’t worry, he is about to be made very clear on that point..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Wednesday's Links

NYC, Church, gPhone, Airlines

– Insane, how about we actually punish those committing the crime rather than selling a legal item? Just a thought…

– Uh….what took so long?

– I think this is more the reason for the iPhone’s slip…

– They will start folding left and right this summer

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Wednesday’s Links

NYC, Church, gPhone, Airlines

– Insane, how about we actually punish those committing the crime rather than selling a legal item? Just a thought…

– Uh….what took so long?

– I think this is more the reason for the iPhone’s slip…

– They will start folding left and right this summer

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Lehman's Inexplicable BuyBack

Lehman (LEH) is now playing games in an attempt to trounce shorts who, based on the firms results, have been correct in their analysis of the company.

One can argue that continuing to pay a dividend while raising capital in excusable. Many dividend stocks are in income funds that if they were to cease paying the dividend would be dumped, causing a further cratering of the stock price. For this reason, the argument does hold.

The can be no legitimate reason to repurchase shares while raising cash at the same time. Unless you are playing games..

The Wall St. Journal reported:
“The Wall Street firm’s shares had tumbled nearly 15% at one point Tuesday as investors who feared their stakes would be diluted sold shares and rumors flew on trading desks that Lehman had gone to the Federal Reserve for funds. Lehman said that wasn’t true.

But a second rumor, that Lehman was buying back shares, turned out to be true, people familiar with the situation said. Such buying helped the stock pare its losses Tuesday.”

It is one thing to repurchase shares because they are undervalued, it is another to do it simply to halt a slide in a single day. It is also irresponsible when most folks figure you are going to then turn around and dump these shares back on the market in another offering to raise more capital.

Now that the rumors are out there and at least this one is true, does Lehman really think it will not spur more conjecturing? The moves smacks of desperation and that in and of itself will lead people to now attemot to anticipate the real reason and what the next move will be.

Think about it. Financials are raising money at a discount to current share prices currently. What Lehman essentially did was repurchase stock it knows it will be forced to re-issue at a loss to whomever they get to provide them more capital.

Shrewed…

They can rail against Einhorn all they want and sit there and call him names, but, until their results refute anything he says, they will lose. Why? Currnetly their results are refuting everything they say…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Lehman’s Inexplicable BuyBack

Lehman (LEH) is now playing games in an attempt to trounce shorts who, based on the firms results, have been correct in their analysis of the company.

One can argue that continuing to pay a dividend while raising capital in excusable. Many dividend stocks are in income funds that if they were to cease paying the dividend would be dumped, causing a further cratering of the stock price. For this reason, the argument does hold.

The can be no legitimate reason to repurchase shares while raising cash at the same time. Unless you are playing games..

The Wall St. Journal reported:
“The Wall Street firm’s shares had tumbled nearly 15% at one point Tuesday as investors who feared their stakes would be diluted sold shares and rumors flew on trading desks that Lehman had gone to the Federal Reserve for funds. Lehman said that wasn’t true.

But a second rumor, that Lehman was buying back shares, turned out to be true, people familiar with the situation said. Such buying helped the stock pare its losses Tuesday.”

It is one thing to repurchase shares because they are undervalued, it is another to do it simply to halt a slide in a single day. It is also irresponsible when most folks figure you are going to then turn around and dump these shares back on the market in another offering to raise more capital.

Now that the rumors are out there and at least this one is true, does Lehman really think it will not spur more conjecturing? The moves smacks of desperation and that in and of itself will lead people to now attemot to anticipate the real reason and what the next move will be.

Think about it. Financials are raising money at a discount to current share prices currently. What Lehman essentially did was repurchase stock it knows it will be forced to re-issue at a loss to whomever they get to provide them more capital.

Shrewed…

They can rail against Einhorn all they want and sit there and call him names, but, until their results refute anything he says, they will lose. Why? Currnetly their results are refuting everything they say…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Housing…Hmmm

So, housing has to bottom some time. Toll Brothers results were released yesterday and it was a mixed bag and Robert Toll himself had some interesting thoughts

Toll’s Results:

Toll Interview:
Part 1

Part 2

Now, let’s put Toll aside and look at housing in general. There are pockets in hard hit places that seem to be thawing:

Sears Holdings (SHLD) Eddie Lampert recently bought shares in Centex (CTX) and KB Homes (KBH)(Bill Miller also owns shares). Chris Davis and Ron Baron recently bought Toll Brothers (TOL) and Richard Snow recently bought Hovnanian (HOV) shares.

All these are value investors and all are dipping their toes in the home builders. The position are all new ans small. Perhaps they are adding to them currently, this quarters reports will tell.

That being said, the fact the they are entering tells us something. I am looking at the sector and will report mote later.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Wednesday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
First Horizon (FHN)- Fox Pitt In Line » Outperform
Wal-Mart (WMT)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Barrick Gold (ABX)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Randgold Resources (GOLD)- HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight
Scotiabank (BNS)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform

Downgrades
Littelfuse (LFUS)- William Blair Outperform » Mkt Perform
Brookfield Asset Mngmt (BAM)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
AU Optronics (AUO)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Abiomed (ABMD)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
CIBC (CM)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Abercrombie (ANF)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Linear Tech (LLTC)- UBS Buy » Neutral
CSX Corp (CSX)- UBS Buy » Neutral
China Unicom (CHU)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral

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Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
First Horizon (FHN)- Fox Pitt In Line » Outperform
Wal-Mart (WMT)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Outperform
Barrick Gold (ABX)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Randgold Resources (GOLD)- HSBC Securities Neutral » Overweight
Scotiabank (BNS)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform

Downgrades
Littelfuse (LFUS)- William Blair Outperform » Mkt Perform
Brookfield Asset Mngmt (BAM)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Underperform
AU Optronics (AUO)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Abiomed (ABMD)- Susquehanna Financial Positive » Neutral
CIBC (CM)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Abercrombie (ANF)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Linear Tech (LLTC)- UBS Buy » Neutral
CSX Corp (CSX)- UBS Buy » Neutral
China Unicom (CHU)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral

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Biglari Buys More Steak n' Shake (SNS)

In two separate transactions, Sardar Biglari, through his Lion Fund investment vehicle purchased an additional 36,100 shares of Steak n’ Shake (SNS) at prices of $6.62 and $6.42.

The Lion Fund now holds 977,200 shares directly and 1,553,545 shares through Biglari’s Western Acquisitions vehicle.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Biglari Buys More Steak n’ Shake (SNS)

In two separate transactions, Sardar Biglari, through his Lion Fund investment vehicle purchased an additional 36,100 shares of Steak n’ Shake (SNS) at prices of $6.62 and $6.42.

The Lion Fund now holds 977,200 shares directly and 1,553,545 shares through Biglari’s Western Acquisitions vehicle.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Just Disturbing…….

Nothing to do with investing just possibly the oddest story I have ever seen…..

Disturbing…..

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"Fast Money" for Wednesday


WEDNESDAY’S PICKS
For the second day in a row Jeff Macke recommends shorting the Dow by getting long the Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $62.6

Guy Adami suggests getting long Celgene (CELG) $61.31

Karen Finerman thinks Aetna (AET) $45.65 is a buy.

Pete Najarian prefers Norfolk Southern (NSC) $65.5 on the pullback.

TUESDAY’S RESULTS
Jeff Macke recommends shorting the Dow by getting long the Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) $62.21 CLOSE $62.47 GAIN

Guy Adami thinks Celgene (CELG) $61.20 looks interesting. CLOSE $61.31 GAIN

Jon Najarian is bullish on National Semiconductor (NSM) $20.82 CLOSE $21.66 GAIN

Karen Finerman recommends Bon-Ton (BONT) $6.76 as a high risk trade. CLOSE $6.80 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 1-1
Jon Najarian= 4-3
Jeff Macke= 42-36-1
Tim Seymore= 17-14
Guy Adami= 46-36
Pete Najarian= 42-37
Karen Finerman= 40-32-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-3

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Dow Chemical in Possible Kuwait, Sinopec JV

It looks as though the relationship between Dow Chemical and Kuwait is going to expand further.

It was reported today Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) is considering Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and Dow Chemical (DOW) as possible partners in a 250,000-300,000 bpd refinery planned as a joint venture with Sinopec in Guangdong.

Sinopec (SHI) will hold about 50-51% stake of the Nansha refinery to be located in Southern China. The refinery will include a petrochemical plant with annual ethylene output of 1 mln tons.

KPC awaits final approval from China’s main economic planning agency- National Development and Reform Commission and from the environment ministry. State-owned KPC and Sinopec, Asia’s top refiner, received preliminary government approval for the Guangdong plant in 2006.

This one is simple, gaining access to the one of the world’s largest and fastest growing economy’s and deepening a partnership with Kuwait really has virtually no downside.

It does look as though Dow is becoming the “partner of choice” for these nations looking to expand their petrochemical complexes.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW, None

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Lehman's Callahan Now On The Hot Seat

Looks like Einhorn was correct……despite Lehman’s (LEH) proclamations to the contrary.

Lehman has raised $6 billion in capital in the past year, including $4 billion last quarter. It is now looking at the need to raise another $3 to $4 billion.

CFO Erin Callahan has been the public face of the company during the crisis and has made statements that will now come back to haunt her. The firm is saddled with billions of dollars of illiquid commercial real-estate assets and leveraged loans and is expected to face further write-downs on these portfolios.

The Wall St Journal reported today
“During the second quarter, Lehman was stung by hedges used to offset losses in real estate and other securities, according to people familiar with the matter. The firm bet that indexes tracking markets such as real-estate securities and leveraged loans would fall. If that happened, it would book profits that would make up some of its losses from holding these securities and loans.

However, in an unexpected twist, some of the indexes rose, even as the assets they were supposed to hedge against continued to lose value or stayed relatively flat. Lehman’s losses from both write-downs on assets and ineffective hedges will likely top $2 billion, people familiar with the matter said.”

Just over a month ago Callahan was on CNBC and said at the time they did not expect to need the last fund-raising they did.

Now additional funds and further shareholder dilution are being needed. Someone will pay and you cannot just sit back anymore and blame short-sellers “spreading rumors”. When what you alleged to be “rumor” starts coming true, it now looks as though you are the not being totally honest.

Watch Einhorn express his concern about the company. Bartiromo tries to refute Einhorn but he makes his point nontheless. Who is looking more accurate?

I think it may not be too long before Callahan joins the latest list of casualties.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Lehman’s Callahan Now On The Hot Seat

Looks like Einhorn was correct……despite Lehman’s (LEH) proclamations to the contrary.

Lehman has raised $6 billion in capital in the past year, including $4 billion last quarter. It is now looking at the need to raise another $3 to $4 billion.

CFO Erin Callahan has been the public face of the company during the crisis and has made statements that will now come back to haunt her. The firm is saddled with billions of dollars of illiquid commercial real-estate assets and leveraged loans and is expected to face further write-downs on these portfolios.

The Wall St Journal reported today
“During the second quarter, Lehman was stung by hedges used to offset losses in real estate and other securities, according to people familiar with the matter. The firm bet that indexes tracking markets such as real-estate securities and leveraged loans would fall. If that happened, it would book profits that would make up some of its losses from holding these securities and loans.

However, in an unexpected twist, some of the indexes rose, even as the assets they were supposed to hedge against continued to lose value or stayed relatively flat. Lehman’s losses from both write-downs on assets and ineffective hedges will likely top $2 billion, people familiar with the matter said.”

Just over a month ago Callahan was on CNBC and said at the time they did not expect to need the last fund-raising they did.

Now additional funds and further shareholder dilution are being needed. Someone will pay and you cannot just sit back anymore and blame short-sellers “spreading rumors”. When what you alleged to be “rumor” starts coming true, it now looks as though you are the not being totally honest.

Watch Einhorn express his concern about the company. Bartiromo tries to refute Einhorn but he makes his point nontheless. Who is looking more accurate?

I think it may not be too long before Callahan joins the latest list of casualties.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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