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Another Misleading Sears Holdings Article

This one surprised me. The WSJ ran an article Friday that made things at Sears (SHLD) look dire. Let’s take a closer look.

A summation of the article is pretty simple. Sears’ cash will be far below last years levels when they report and thus, investors will run for the exits.

The article starts off with this quote, “Now, some analysts wonder whether falling sales, slimmer profit margins and other woes are causing cash flows to decline to a level that could hinder a turnaround.”

The very reason Sears split into 5 separate entities was to avoid this very scenario. It will allow each division to pursue deals outside of the current locations. This was witness just last week by the Diehard deal with Orange County Choppers. I am having trouble figuring out what any cash deterioration at Sears would hinder more deal like this. I can easily see how they will expand sales of those items and actually increase cash. I can also easily picture licensing deals for Craftsmen tools and Kenmore appliance that throw more cash Lampert’s way.

Later in the article comes this gem “…Sears to draw on a $4 billion credit line. But this might not be received well by creditors, especially if it looks like the borrowing is being done to fund further stock buybacks.”

Now, has Lampert ever borrowed to repurchase shares? Ever? If we go just the end of Q3, Lampert had $734 million of cash in hand. The company said that, as of Jan. 11, it had used $513 million of that cash to repurchase stock in Q4 and as of Nov. 27, it had paid back a $625 million credit facility.

Both of these were done from cash from operations. If Lampert had ANY inclination to repurchase shares with debt, he surely would not have paid off the credit facility. Lampert has been constantly paying off debt since taking over Sears and that is the reason the company has the best balance sheet of its competitors (JC Penny (JCP), Macy’s (M), Home Depot (HD) and Kohl’s (KSS)). As a matter of fact, since taking over Sears, Lampert has reduced its outstanding debt every year and FY 2008 that just ended will be no different.

The article also laments the fact that cash is lower this year than at the same time last. But, it casually misses the fact that Lampert has repurchased almost $3 billion in stock in the last 9 months vs $800 million total the previous year. Now, had he not done that, the cash balances would be similar.

The same people who are wringing their hands over the cash account today at $1 billion are the same ones who were complaining when it was at $4 billion and Lampert was just sitting on it. Back then they were championing Lampert to spend it on a Home Depot, Radioshack (RSH) or Macy’s acquisition. In retrospect, any one of those moves at the prices they were at then would be a complete catastrophe today. I wonder were all the articles pointing that out are?

So, Lampert invested that cash on Sears by repurchasing stock. By doing so, he has increased shareholders percentage ownership of earnings in excess of 13% rather than destroying it with an abysmally timed dilutive acquisition to appease folks. Thank you Eddie.

The essence of this article is based on a flawed premise. It is a bit like speculating about the cash drain at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) should Warren Buffett try to outbid Microsoft (MSFT) for Yahoo (YHOO). It will never happen so making the speculation is just filling a page with words. To be honest, I had a hard time finding the premise.

Whitney Tilson, said Friday on CNBC that he was “aggressively buying shares in the 80’s” recently. To quote Whitney “we are buying a 30 cent dollar”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Sears, None in others

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Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Tidewater (TDW)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Spartan Stores (SPTN)- CIBC Wrld Mkts Sector Perform » Sector Outperform
Nuance Communications (NUAN)- Wedbush Morgan Hold » Buy
OptionsXpress (OXPS)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
MasterCard (MA)- Stifel Nicolaus Hold » Buy
EuroBancshares (EUBK)- Kaufman Bros Hold » Buy
Syngenta (SYT)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
ResMed (RMD)- Caris & Company Above Average » Buy
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)- Caris & Company Average » Above Average
Pain Therapeutics (PTIE)- Broadpoint Capital Underperform » Neutral
Omnicell (OMCL)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Walgreen (WAG)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Moody’s (MCO)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO)- Bernstein Mkt Perform » Outperform
Coca-Cola (KO)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Urban Outfitters (URBN)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Peer Perform
Mobile TeleSystems (MBT)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Outperform
Anworth Mortgage (ANH )- Friedman Billings Mkt Perform » Outperform
Equinix (EQIX)- Merriman Curhan Ford Neutral » Buy

Downgrades
Universal Forest (UFPI)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
Riverview Bancorp, Inc. (RVSB)- DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform
MGM Mirage (MGM)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Centene (CNC)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
BT Group PLC (BT)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Finlay Enterprises FNLY CL King Accumulate » Neutral
Medcath (MDTH)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
MTC Tech (MTCT)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Aruba Networks (ARUN)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Acme Packet (APKT)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
R.H. Donnelley (RHD)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold
Idearc (IAR) Deutsche Securities Hold » Sell
PDF Solutions (PDFS)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Camden Property (CPT)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Underperform
Shire Pharm (SHPGY)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
Telecom Corp. New Zealand (NZT)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Limited (LTD)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Level 3 (LVLT)- Merriman Curhan Ford Buy » Neutral
Spectrum Brands (SPC)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Cincinnati Bell (CBB)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Anglogold (AU)- UBS Buy » Neutral

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The Week’s Dividend Hikes

CME Group A-(CME)= 33.7%
Cameco Corp-(CCJ)= 20.0%
Hasbro Inc-(HAS)= 25.0%
Koppers Holdings-(KOP)= 29.4%
L-3 Communications-(LLL)= 20.0%
Mission West Props-(MSW)= 25.0%
Ross Stores Inc-(ROST )=26.7%
Smith Int’l Inc-(SII) = 20.0%

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"Fast Money" for Monday


Monday’s Picks
Jeff Macke likes Microsoft (MSFT) $28.56

Guy Adami prefers Trinity Industries (TRN) $29.54

Karen Finerman is sticking with Crocs (CROX) $31.99 into earnings.

Pete Najarian says CNET Networks (CNET) $8.29 is a buy on options action.

Friday’s Results
Guy Adami likes Cisco (CSCO) $23.38 Close $23.54 GAIN

Karen Finerman prefers Crocs (CROX) $31.99 Close $31.00 PUSH

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 8-6
Tim Seymore= 2-3
Guy Adami= 8-10
Pete Najarian= 9-6
Karen Finerman= 7-9-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%

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The Week’s Insider Buys


Barnes & Noble Inc (BKS) = $9,935,860
Aldabra 2 Acquisition Corp (AII)=$ 5,812,920
Pepsiamericas Inc New (PAS0 = $5,130,040
Highland Credit Strategies Fund (HCF)=$ 2,856,871
Penwest Pharmaceuticals Co (PPCO) = $ 2,399,491
Global Logistics Acquisition Corp (GLA)= $ 2,398,400
Danaher Corp (DHR) = $2,124,981
Mcclatchy Co (MNI)= $ 1,705,500
Alliance Semiconductor Corp (ALSC )= $1,663,763
Cache Inc (CACH) = $1,325,290
Legg Mason Inc (LM )= $1,003,622
Mf Global Ltd (MF) = $997,963
Dow Chemical Co (DOW)= $ 996,967

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The Weeks Top Stories at Value Investing News

Here are the top from the last week at VIN

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52 Week Low’s 2/8


(WMK)- Weis Markets, Inc
(VSAT )- ViaSat Inc
(VRTX )- Vertex Pharmaceutical …
(VNBC )- Vineyard Natl Bancorp
(SNY )- Sanofi Aventis
(SNCI )- Sonic Innovations Inc
(SHMR )- Shamir Optical Indust …
(SCSS )- Select Comfort Corp
(RVSN )- Radvision Ltd
(RTEC )- Rudolph Technologies Inc
(PATR)- Patriot Transn Hldg Inc
(OZM )- Och Ziff Cap Mgmt Group
(ORIT )- Oritani Finl Corp
(OFSI )- Omni Finl Svcs Inc
(OESX )- Orion Energy Systems Inc
(NT )- Nortel Networks Corp New
(NSANY)- Nissan Motors
(CTAS )- Cintas Corporation
(CSGS )- CSG Systems Internati …
(CPI )- Capital Properties, Inc
(CHRD)- Chordiant Software Inc
(CGNX )- Cognex Corp
(CEPH )- Cephalon Inc

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Eric Bolling on WallStrip

I really liked Bolling when he was on “Fast Money” because of his insight. There is a bit at the end about Jim Cramer welshing on a $50,000 bet.

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Friday’s Links

Google, Clemens, Lizdon on Cramer, Gadgets..

– Cullen has some thoughts on Google

– What did he say?

Good advice

– This is true, tis stuff just gets too small sometimes

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Wal-Mart January: Could It Be The Weather?

Wal-Mart released sales today and at first blush, it was not all that good, until you dig just a bit more.

First the results:

Wal-Mart said “Unfavorable weather negatively affected overall general merchandise sales, especially in the Midwest. Gift card redemptions were below expectations, and customers appear to be holding gift cards longer and using them more often for food and consumables rather than discretionary purchases.”

They continued ” We expect to be within our previously stated guidance of $0.99 to $1.03 for earnings per share from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2008.”

On CNBC this morning Jim Cramer dismissed the “weather” reasoning because of the results at both Costco (COST) and BJ’s (BJ). Here is the problem with that. If it indeed was the weather in the Midwest as Wal-Mart stated, it would not effect BJ’s at all as they have no locations there and Costco has less than 10% of theirs there. BJ’s said “By region, the largest sales increases were in Upstate New York and Metro New York” where the weather was mild in January.

Now even Costco’s results were not that stellar as the headlines would lead you to believe. In their release they said “The U.S. comparable sales figure includes, among other things, the effect of gasoline price inflation, with the average sales price per gallon of gasoline up 31% for the four-week month of January, as compared to the year-earlier January. Excluding gasoline price inflation, U.S. comparable sales would have been up 3%.” Wal-Mart numbers are reported “excluding fuel”.

At BJ’s, “For January 2007, the Company reported a comparable club sales increase of 3.5%, including a contribution from sales of gasoline of 0.3%.

If we are doing an honest comp., we need look at Sam’s Club, which reported 2.1% comparable growth without gas as has far more exposure to the Midwest that the others.

Looking at Target (TGT), they said today “On this same equal-week basis, January comparable store sales decreased 1.1 percent”.

Now, does this mean Wal-Mart is in trouble or we should just ignore these results? No, it does mean that we should not draw too many conclusions from this month. The weather in the Midwest was lousy and the two retailers Wal-Mart is being compared to have no real exposure there, making the comparison flawed.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Wal-Mart, None

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Circuit City: More Humor

Leave it to Circuit City’s (CC) Philip Schoonover to inject humor into the recent turbulent market. Problem is, I do not think it was his intention to.

Apparently giving up on trying to compete with Best Buy (BBY), Schoonover and crew have decided to open 50-60 smaller well staffed (theres an idea!) locations called “The City”. Early plans have the 20,000 square-foot stores being about 40% smaller than the typical Circuit City, but a redesign eliminating obsolete warehouse space results in having nearly the same amount of selling space. That means CC is sitting on 8,000 sq. feet per location of unnecessary warehouse space? That is a stunning number, if true.

This means either one of two things. Sales are just real dismal and it is not necessary to stock extra items in current locations, hence the “extra space”. Or, CC plans to cut way back on inventory in which case potential customers will constantly hearing these words “we do not have that in stock here, can I call another location for you?” Neither scenario is a good one.

While execs at the failing chain may think “The City” is a novel idea, it has been done before. It was and still is called Radioshack (RSH)!! The problem is that Radioshacks CEO Julian Day could out-manage Schoonover from the grave.

In response to a question about selling the company, “We have a solid plan, we have the capital to continue this multi-quarter turnaround, and management feels that at today’s stock prices it would not be in the best interest of the shareholder to sell the company,” Schoonover told Reuters.

Perhaps it would have been a little over a year ago when they dismissed out of hand an over $20 a share private equity offer? For those of you not keeping track, shares trade at $4.70 currently.

“We have the financial capability (debt) and the access to sustain a multiquarter turnaround,” Schoonover said. “While we’re learning from some of the errors we made, we’re making significant progress on that turnaround, as we think on behalf of the shareholders that at today’s stock price, we’re better off staying the course.”

By staying the course does he mean “making the stock worthless”? I mean it is down 80%.

Here is the kicker, execs said that by the middle of next year, they hope to have a plan for applying some of the best things about The City format to older stores. “Middle of next year”?

Translation? Another dismal year for shareholders. I will say it now for Schoonover before the next earnings call, “clearly we are disappointed by our performance”.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None, Pity for shareholders

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Kimco Realty (KIM)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Dawson Geophys. (DWSN)- CapitalOne southcoast Hold » Buy
Mechel Steel (MTL)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Power Integrations (POWI)- Needham & Co Buy » Strong Buy
Genomic Health (GHDX)- RBC Capital Mkts Sector Perform » Outperform
Thornburg Mortg (TMA)- Credit Suisse Underperform » Neutral
Commvault Systems (CVLT)- Robert W. Baird Neutral » Outperform
Celanese (CE)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Sirona Dental Systems (SIRO)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Principal Fincl (PFG)- UBS Sell » Neutral
Universal Technical Institute (UTI)- JP Morgan Underweight » Neutral
Pioneer Natural (PXD)- Citigroup Hold » Buy
Danaher (DHR)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy

Downgrades
O’Charley’s (CHUX)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
Saba Software (SABA)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Taleo (TLEO)- Wedbush Morgan Buy » Hold
Sepracor (SEPR)- AmTech Research Neutral » Sell
Casual Male (CMRG)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
Select Comfort (SCSS)- Morgan Keegan Mkt Perform » Underperform
Aruba Networks (ARUN)- Caris & Company Above Average » Average
Nalco (NLC)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
CPI International (CPII)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Cisco Systems (CSCO)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
BT Group (PLC)- BT Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Elbit Systems (ESLT)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Virgin Mobile USA (VM )- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
XL Capital (XL)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Cisco Systems (CSCO)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Regal-Beloit (RBC)- Deutsche Securities Buy » Hold

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Leucadia Adds to AmerCredit: Now At 22.4%

In an SEC filing tonight, Leucadia (LUK) disclosed it purchased an additional 2 million shares of AmeriCredit (ACF) at $12.38 a share.

This bring the total ownership by Leucadia and affiliates to 25,587,776 shares or 22.4% of total.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Picks
Guy Adami likes Cisco (CSCO) $23.38

Pete Najarian is taking profit in Cognizant Technology (CTSH) $27.28

Karen Finerman prefers Crocs (CROX) $31.99

Thursday’s Results
Guy Adami likes Dow Chemical (DOW) $38.05 Close $37.92 LOSS

Karen Finerman prefers Microsoft (MSFT) $28.52 Close $28.12 LOSS

Pete Najarian recommends looking at JetBlue (JBLU) $6.57 Close $7.23 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 8-6
Tim Seymore= 2-3
Guy Adami= 7-10
Pete Najarian= 9-6
Karen Finerman= 7-9

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%

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52 Week Lows 2/7


(ZGEN)- Zymogenetics Inc
(XRIT )- X-Rite Incorporated
(WSH )- Willis Group Holdings Ltd
(WMK )- Weis Markets, Inc
(VSAT )- ViaSat Inc
(USMO )- Usa Mobility Inc
(SMTC )- Semtech Corporation
(SLXP )- Salix Pharmaceuticals Inc
(SCSS )- Select Comfort Corp
(RVSN )- Radvision Ltd
(RSYS )- RadiSys Corporation
(RNVS )- Renovis Inc
(OESX)- Orion Energy Systems Inc
(NT )- Nortel Networks Corp New
(NSANY)- Nissan Motors
(LUX )- Luxottica Group S.p.A.
(KEP )- Korea Electric Power …
(KEM)- KEMET Corp
(EVVV )- Ev3 Inc
(ERIC )- Ericsson L M Tel Co
(EPEX)- Edge Petroleum Corpor …
(DXR)- Daxor Corporation
(DTSI)- Dts Inc

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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