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Sears Begins Brand Sales Channel Diversifcation

Sears Holdings (SHLD), after recently announcing it was dividing its businesses up essentially by their major brands, has begun to spread the channels through which they are sold.

The AP reports to that Sears’ Diehard Division is teaming up with Orange County Choppers (OCC) for a special event.

Sears will unveil DieHard and Craftsman branded bikes, designed by Orange County Choppers. Sears also announced a marketing agreement with Orange County Choppers (OCC) that makes DieHard the “Official Battery of Orange County Choppers”. With this agreement, all custom motorcycles created as part of the “American Chopper” TV series (as seen on TLC) will be powered by DieHard.

In addition, the partnership will include the following:
— OCC will sell DieHard batteries in their new retail store in Newburgh, NY
— DieHard battery signage in the OCC shop along with a unique battery maintainer station
— A link to diehardbatteries.com from orangecountychoppers.com
— DieHard branding on shirts worn by OCC mechanics

Do you remember the Monty Python Piece from way back where they walked around chanting “spam, spam, spam, spam,” incessantly? When you think of Sears Holdings, the thought process needs to be “brands, brands, brands, brands”.

This is the first of many deal that will dramatically expand the sales channels of the Diehard, Craftsmen and Kenmore brands. Now that the separation has been announced and according to all accounts, management has been given the “green light” to find deals, we ought to see them coming fast and furious. Look for Craftsmen tools to be sold in Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) before the summer ends.

As far back as November I have been focused on the brands rather than the stores. What we now need to see when Sears reports next Q1 are the results broken out by division.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long SHLD, None

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Warren Buffett Speaking in Toronto

Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffet speaking at the “Business Wire Canada” opening reception.

Follow this link

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Leucadia Ups AmeriCredit Stake to 20.7%

In a SEC filing moments ago, Leucadia (LUK) announced it had purchased an additional 1.4 million shares of AmeriCredit (ACF) on Feb. 6th at $11.08 a share.

From the Filing:
” As of the close of business on February 6, 2008, the Reporting Persons may be deemed to beneficially own collectively an aggregate of 23,587,776 shares of Common Stock, representing approximately 20.7% of the shares of Common Stock presently outstanding. All percentages in this Item 5 are based on 114,162,314 shares of Common Stock outstanding as of October 31, 2007, as set forth in the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2007.”

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Thursday’s Links

SIDS, Blood Drive Canceled, Foreclosures, Icahn

– Mothers who smoke have children with a higher SIDS rates

– This is stupid. How many people may not get the blood they need so some asinine college administrator can make a juvenile argument.

– Here are the 100 worst foreclosure areas by zip code.

– This could be very insightful..

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Icahn Places Board Member

Carl Icahn disclosed a position in and has placed an associate on the Board of BKF Capital (BGFG) (

From the filing:
“Following the resignation of Keith Meister from Issuer’s Board of
Directors, Reporting Persons suggested that Issuer should consider David
Schechter to replace Keith Meister and thereafter Issuer added Mr. Schechter to
its Board of Directors.”

Icahn ans his affiliates, “..may be deemed to beneficially own, in the aggregate, 1,194,100 Shares, representing approximately 14.98% of the Issuer’s outstanding Shares (based upon the 7,973,216 Shares stated to be outstanding by the Issuer in the Issuer’s 10-Q, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 13, 2007).”

Disclosure (“none” means no position): None

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Thornburg Mortgage: Soon

I have been saying to readers that one of the stocks I am watching for a buy is Thornburg Mortgage (TMA). Kind of wish I had hit the button rather than watch.

On Tuesday, Thornburg reported net income before preferred stock dividends for the quarter ended December 31, 2007, of $64.8 million, or $0.33 per diluted common share and $0.34 per basic common share, as compared to $80.3 million, or $0.68 per basic and diluted common share, for the same period in the prior year.

Net loss before preferred stock dividends for the year ended December 31, 2007, was $874.9 million as compared to net income of $297.7 million for the year ended December 31, 2006. The company’s fourth quarter cash dividend for common shareholders of record on December 31, 2007 was $0.25 per share, which was paid on January 30, 2008.

Read the press release here:

Here is the only thing that matters. “Continued exceptional credit performance with 0.44% 60-plus day delinquencies and REO at December 31, 2007, well below the 4.23% industry average at September 30, 2007”. Larry Goldstone, president and chief executive officer said “..we have begun to see financing conditions improve and, despite these challenges, we successfully continue to maintain existing short-term financing facilities with our existing finance counterparties and have successfully added new financing capacity since year end.”

He continued, “With the potential for expanded agency guidelines raising the conforming loan limit, the company would expect to benefit from this market change as a notable percentage of its pipeline and existing unsecuritized loan portfolio would qualify under the increased loan limit. The company would then be able to create agency securities as well as the private label securities in order to further diversify its portfolio financing strategies.”

They have not been able to sell a CDO since October 2007 but are under the opinion they will in Q1, 2008. This is good for the entire market.

Despite what you may think, people are still buying houses. Just not at levels they were before. Thornburg is focused on the upper end of the market and while results prove it has slowed, it is not non-existent. For lenders like Thornburg, finding financing for their loans is key and with the industries lowest default rate, that potential issue ought to be put to bed.

As long as TMA is able to keep their default rate low, they will be fine. Based on past and current results, that should happen. When housing returns, they will emerge a very strong and more preferred player in the business.

The stock has rallied form $8 on 1/18 to almost $13 now. It is important to note these numbers are down from a high of $28 in 2007. The stock yields 7.8% and based on Q4 results, seems safe after being ditched in Q3.

Rush out and jump in? No. TMA has been volatile and the next market leg down ought to take TMA with it. Then it will give you a better entry point. You could sell the March $12.50 call and receive about $100 per contract. That would lower your entry price, should you get “put” them (forced to buy at $12.50) at $11.50. If TMA keeps climbing, you keep the cash and do it again.

I may do just that…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Leap Frog Releases Preliminary Results

LeapFrog (LF) released results and it appears that despite the dismal retail environment out there, the made very good progress over 2006.

“LeapFrog’s sales for the 2007 fourth quarter were approximately equal to last year, and brought the full year sales to $445 million, a decline of 11%, which was in line with our expectations,” said LeapFrog president and chief executive officer Jeffrey G. Katz.

He continued, “Our overall results were affected by the widely publicized economic concerns facing U.S. consumers which caused retailers to order cautiously for many items. This impacted some of our products, of course, including our newly introduced FLY Fusion Pentop Computer. Fly Fusion hardware was nearly sold out in stores by year-end, but retailers ordered fewer units than originally forecasted. In spite of these issues, there were some bright spots over the holiday season, including ClickStart My First Computer, which performed well at retail, our Learn & Groove toy line, and the Leapster gaming system and software, which continued to lead the educational gaming market and sold strongly.”

Chief Financial Officer Bill Chiasson said,”We ended 2007 with a strong balance sheet and improved inventory positions at both Leap Frog and at retailers. Cash and investments totaled approximately $105 million at year-end. Inventories were approximately $53 million, down almost 30% from year ago levels. Inventories of LeapFrog products held at retailers were also down sharply from last year.”

LeapFrog is a minute .5% of the portfolio and is a pick i made cause the kids like the products and I believe in both Katz and the products they have coming out. the fact that they are still on track and in better shape now then they were at this time last year means they are doing a great job.

In no way did I expect the company to turn a profit in 2007 and they did accomplish what I was looking for. The new products are VERY exciting and will be good sellers, cash levels are good, inventories are way down and debt levels are good. In short 2007 was about getting things inline and now that it has been done, time to execute.

That being said, I will hold my shares. I may look to add more but seeing as 3/4 of all sales for the company come in Q4, I will not consider doing anything until late summer at the earliest.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long LF

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Thursday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Adobe Systems (ADBE)- Kaufman Bros Hold » Buy
Team (TISI)- BB&T Capital Mkts Hold » Buy
Advent Software (ADVS)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Boston Scientific (BSX)- Stanford Research Hold » Buy
JDS Uniphase (JDSU)- BMO Capital Markets Market Perform » Outperform
Perot Systems (PER)- RBC Capital Mkts Underperform » Sector Perform
Expedia (EXPE)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
Boston Scientific (BSX)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Genomic Health (GHDX)- Cantor Fitzgerald Hold » Buy
Teekay Shipping (TK)- Citigroup Sell » Hold
Estee Lauder (EL)- Lehman Brothers Underweight » Equal-weight
American Tower (AMT)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Crown Castle (CCI)- UBS Neutral » Buy
Duke Realty (DRE0- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Thornburg Mortg (TMA)- Jefferies & Co Hold » Buy

Downgrades
AMERCO (UHAL)- CL King Accumulate » Neutral
Neustar (NSR)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)- William Blair Outperform » Mkt Perform
USANA (USNA)- Canaccord Adams Buy » Hold
Riverbed Technology (RVBD)- Needham & Co Buy » Hold
Neustar (NSR)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Yahoo! (YHOO)- BMO Capital Markets Outperform » Market Perform
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)- FTN Midwest Buy » Neutral
FormFactor (FORM)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Harman (HAR)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Quest Software (QSFT)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
RadiSys (RSYS)- Cantor Fitzgerald Buy » Hold
Allis-Chalmers Energy (ALY)- Wachovia Outperform » Mkt Perform
FormFactor (FORM)- Broadpoint Capital Buy » Neutral
General Motors (GM)- Bear Stearns Peer Perform » Underperform
Ford Motor (F)- Bear Stearns Outperform » Peer Perform
Regions Fincl (RF)- Citigroup Hold » Sell
Clorox (CLX)- Lehman Brothers Equal-weight » Underweight
National Financial Partners (NFP)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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"Fast Money" for Thursday


Thursday’s Picks
Guy Adami likes Dow Chemical (DOW) $38.05

Karen Finerman prefers Microsoft (MSFT) $28.52

Pete Najarian recommends looking at JetBlue (JBLU) $6.57

Wednesday’s Results
Jeff Macke is sticking with Disney (DIS) $30.07 after a blow-out earnings report. Close $31.50 GAIN

Guy Adami said NYSE Euronext (NYX) $71.03 is “overdone” after a sharp sell-off.Close $69.03 LOSS

Karen Finerman agrees with Guy. The time is right to buy NYX, she said.LOSS

Jon Najarian said he notices a lot of put buying in AIG (AIG) $52.93 means it’s time to short the insurance giant. Close $52.10 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 8-6
Tim Seymore= 2-3
Guy Adami= 7-9
Pete Najarian= 8-6
Karen Finerman= 7-8

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%
Karen Finerman= 40-30 = 57%

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Icahn Ups Motorola Ownership to 5%

In an SEC filing moments ago, Carl Icahn and affiliates disclosed a 5% stake in Motorola (MOT)

From the filing:
“The Reporting Persons may be deemed to beneficially own, in the
aggregate, 114,289,100 Shares, representing approximately 5.0% of the Issuer’s
outstanding Shares (based upon the 2,284,320,984 Shares stated to be outstanding
as of September 29, 2007 by the Issuer in the Issuer’s Form 10-Q filed with the
Securities and Exchange Commission on November 6, 2007 for the quarter ended
September 29, 2007).”

Reason for Purchases:
The Reporting Persons acquired their positions in the Shares in the belief
that they were undervalued. The Reporting Persons have had, and intend to seek
to have further, conversations with members of the Issuer’s management and the
board of directors to discuss ideas that management, the board of directors and
the Reporting Persons may have to enhance shareholder value.

On January 31, 2008 and February 1, 2008, Carl C. Icahn issued press
releases concerning Motorola, Inc., copies of which are attached hereto as
Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 3, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference.

Since Jan. 7th, Icahn and affiliates have purchased 38.7 million shares of Motorola.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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ADM Raises Dividend

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) raised its dividend 8% and named a new CFO.

ADM said the dividend is payable March 11 to shareholders of record as of Feb. 19. It is the second quarterly increase since December, 2006 and the dividend has been increase a total of 30% in that time frame.

ADM also announced Steven Mills will succeed CFO Douglas Schmalz, who is retiring after 23 years with the company, effective March 1. Mills, currently the company’s senior vice president for strategic planning, joined ADM in 1979 and was appointed controller in 1994.

Schmalz, 61 years old, was appointed CFO at ADM, the nation’s largest ethanol producer in October 1986. He joined the company a year earlier as controller.

No big deal here. One insider taking over for another. It is a wash..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long ADM

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52 Week Low’s 2/6


(XXIA)- Ixia
(XRIT )- X-Rite Incorporated
(WSH )- Willis Group Holdings Ltd
(WOOF )- VCA Antech, Inc
(WBMD)- Webmd Health Corp
(VNBC )- Vineyard Natl Bancorp
(USM )- United States Cellula …
(TPX )- Tempur Pedic Intl Inc
(TOO )- Teekay Offshore Partn …
(TOD )- Todd Shipyards Corpor …
(TKPU)- Polaris Acquisition Corp
(SNE )- Sony Corp
(SNCI )- Sonic Innovations Inc
(SMTC )- Semtech Corporation
(SLXP )- Salix Pharmaceuticals Inc
(SDA )- Sadia S A
(PRFT )- Perficient Inc
(PONE )- Protection One Inc
(PMCS )- Pmc-Sierra Inc
(GRO )- Agria Corp
(GLDD )- Great Lakes Dredge & …
(GIA )- Gulfstream Intl Group Inc
(GAN )- Gainsco Inc
(FUJI )- Fujifilm Hldgs Corp
(BDAY )- Celebrate Express Inc
(BBBB )- Blackboard Inc
(AWBC )- Americanwest Bancorpo …
(AVGN )- Avigen Inc
(ARIA )- ARIAD Pharmaceuticals Inc
(AMAB)- Americasbank Corp

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Wednesday’s Links

Jim Rodgers, Insiders, Adam Warner, Terrorist and mortgages

– This guy made his money off Soros and has been wrong on this prediction for years.

– They are buying, why aren’t you?

– Adam takes the MSM to task

– This is called “over thinking it“.

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Hess CEO Buys Dow Chemical Shares

John Hess, chairman and chief executive officer of integrated-oil company Hess Corp. (HES)and a Dow Chemical (DOW)director, bought $997,000 in Dow stock Friday, according to a filing with the SEC.

Hess acquired 25,200 shares at an average of $39.56 per share. It is Hess’ second million-dollar buy in the last year. In May 2007, he acquired 21,700 shares at an average price of $46.18 each. Hess now holds 48,550 Dow shares,

Hess was elected to Dow’s board in October 2006 and has served as Chairman and CEO of Hess Corp. since 1995.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long Dow

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McCain Now Frontrunner

It looks like John McCain is the front runner for the Republican primary.

If that is the case, as investors, we need to know where he stands on a few key issues. From his website:

Cut Taxes On The Middle Class

* Cut Taxes For Middle Class Families: Hard-working American families need lower taxes. John McCain will permanently repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) — a tax that will be paid nearly exclusively by 25 million middle class families. John McCain will repeal this onerous tax, saving middle class families nearly $60 billion in a single year. Under McCain’s plan, a middle class family with children set to pay the AMT will save an average of over $2,700 — a real tax cut for working families.

Pro-Growth Tax Policy

* Keep Tax Rates Low: Entrepreneurs are at the heart of American innovation, growth and prosperity. Entrepreneurs create the ultimate job security — a new, better opportunity if your current job goes away. Entrepreneurs should not be taxed into submission. John McCain will make the Bush income and investment tax cuts permanent, keeping income tax rates at their current level and fighting the Democrats’ plans for a crippling tax increase in 2011. Left to their devices, Democrats will impose a massive $100 billion tax hike, almost $700 per taxpayer every year.

* Make It Harder To Raise Taxes: John McCain believes it should require a 3/5 majority vote in Congress to raise taxes.

* Reward Saving, Investment and Risk-Taking: Low taxes on dividends and capital gains promote saving, channel investment dollars to innovative, high-value uses and not wasteful financial planning. John McCain will keep the current rates on dividends and capital gains and fight anti-growth efforts by Democrats.

Pro-Innovation Tax Cuts

* Ban Internet Taxes: John McCain believes we must make a farsighted, robust, and fervent commitment to innovation and new technologies to sustain our global competitiveness, meet our national security challenges, achieve less costly and more effective health care, reduce dangerous dependence on foreign sources of oil, and raise the quality of education in the United States. John McCain has been a leader in keeping the Internet free of taxes. As President, he will seek a permanent ban on taxes that threaten this engine of economic growth and prosperity.

* Ban New Cell Phone Taxes: John McCain understands that the same people that would tax e-mail will tax every text message — and even 911 calls. John McCain will prohibit new cellular telephone taxes.

* Permanent R&D Tax Credit: Innovation is fueled by access to sufficient risk capital, a light regulatory burden, skilled workers, and good incentives to pursue new ideas. John McCain will reform and make permanent the research and development (R&D) tax credit to keep America competitive and provide a stable environment for entrepreneurs.

Retirement Tax Cut

* Lower Medicare Premiums: Seniors face a growing threat from higher Medicare premiums that tax away their Social Security and retirement savings. John McCain has proposed comprehensive, pro-market health care and Medicare reforms to reduce health care costs and control increases in premiums — while delivering high-quality health care.

Reforming Entitlement Programs For The 21st Century

* Reform Social Security: John McCain will fight to save the future of Social Security and believes that we may meet our obligations to the retirees of today and the future without raising taxes. John McCain supports supplementing the current Social Security system with personal accounts — but not as a substitute for addressing benefit promises that cannot be kept.

Eliminating Wasteful Spending

* Stop Earmarks, Pork-Barrel Spending, And Waste: John McCain will veto every pork-laden spending bill and make their authors famous. As President, he will seek the line-item veto to reduce waste and eliminate earmarks that have led to corruption. Earmarks restrict America’s ability to address genuine national priorities and interfere with fair, competitive markets.

Now, all of the stances meet the pro-business talking point and like the other candidates, lack any real details. It would be nice to have him say we would lower capital gains and dividend taxes more, but given the choices we now have, keeping them where they are is the best we will get. .

However, McCain’s stance is in direct contrast to both Obama and Hillary who have both promised to raise taxes. Raising taxes in a economic slowdown would be catastrophic.

As this thing unfolds, we will get more clarity on the positions of the candidates. As we get closer to a Democratic nominee, I will review his or her positions then.

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