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The Week’s Insider Buys


Amount of insider purchases:
Crocs Inc (CROX)= $4,988,274
Integramed America Inc (INMD)= $4,821,795
Granahan Mccourt Acquisition Corp (GHN)= $4,466,250
Xcorporeal Inc New (XCR)= $ 2,774,000
Allied Nevada Gold Corp (ANV)= $2,772,424
Titanium Metals Corp (TIE)= $1,938,842
Hillenbrand Inc (HI)= $ 1,742,936
Liberty Global Inc (LBTYA)= $842,383
Philip Morris International Inc ( PM)= $ 805,493

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Borders 8-K Filed

Some interesting notes from Borders (BGP) 8-K filed last night.

* Management as a group own 1.103 million shares making them a the 5th largest holder behind Citadels LP’s 3 million shares. Pershing is by far #1, Dremen Management is #2, and Deutsche Bank (DB)is #3.

* Most executive officers of the Company had received minimal or no bonus for the last three years.

Regarding Pershing and International Operations:

“The Purchase Offer Option is a backstop purchase offer that will give the Company the right, but not the obligation, until January 15, 2009, to require Pershing Square to purchase the Company’s Paperchase, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore subsidiaries, as well as its approximately 17% interest in Bookshop Acquisitions, Inc. (Borders U.K.) (collectively, the “Subject Companies”). Pershing Square’s purchase offer is at a price of $135,000,000 (subject to adjustment for indebtedness for borrowed money of the subject businesses and the after-tax benefit of cash remaining with the Subject Companies). Although the company believes that these businesses are worth substantially more than the backstop purchase offer price, the relative certainty of this arrangement provides the company with valuable flexibility to pursue strategic alternatives. Proceeds to the Company of any such purchase by Pershing Square would be first applied to repay amounts outstanding under the Term Loan Facility.

The Company may sell all of the foregoing businesses or may elect to sell only Paperchase and the Company’s interest in Bookshop Acquisitions (collectively, the “UK Business”) alone or together with the Company’s Singapore business. In the event of such election, the purchase price for the UK Business will be $65,000,000, or $67,500,000 for the UK Business and the Company’s business in Singapore (in each case, subject to adjustment).”

“Pershing Square has agreed not to interfere with the sale of the Subject Businesses to third parties until the acceptance of the Purchase Offer by the Company, and has agreed not to contact any potential alternative buyers, with whom the Company or any of its representatives are then in discussions with prior to December 15, 2008 (or until January 15, 2009 if the Company is then party to a definitive agreement for the sale of all Subject Businesses not yet sold).”

” The Company has retained the right, in its sole discretion, to forego selling some or all of the Subject Companies to any party, to sell some or all of the Subject Companies to one or more third parties, or to require Pershing Square to consummate the purchase transaction. Pershing Square has no right of first refusal or breakup fee or other preemptive right with respect to the sale of the Subject Companies by the Company to other parties.”

Regarding the Warrent to Pershing:

“The Warrants are freely transferable, subject to securities law restrictions, except the Side Letter provides that Pershing Square may not transfer (other than internally among its affiliates) any Warrants until January 1, 2009 or the earlier public announcement of the entry into a definitive agreement with respect to (or the completion of) a change of control or other extraordinary transaction involving the Company to which Pershing Square is not a party. In addition, Pershing Square has agreed not to sell or transfer any of its shares of the Company’s common stock until such time.”

No real bombshells here which is nice because it means Borders is doing a nice job disclosing relevant information to shareholders as it become available.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP,

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Weekend Reading At VIN

Here are the week’s top stories at Value Investing News

1. Vitaliy Katsenelson Interview with Active Trader Magazine

(via contrarianedge.com)

I was interviewed by Active Trader Magazine. The question comes to mind – what do I know about trading? Absolutely nothing! This is exactly what I told David Bukey, the editor of the magazine, when he asked me for an interview. He assured me that he read my book and thought my (investing) message was very important to his readers. How can you say no to that?

2. Buffett tips off MU crowd
(
via www.columbiatribune.com)

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett takes part in a question-and-answer session with business college students during the “Emerging Issues and Trends in Real Estate” forum and educational conference yesterday at the Trulaske College of Business at the University of Missouri.

3. Right Price Checklist: Business
(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)

I detail my checklist for evaluating the business then apply it to Best Buy.

4. Warren Buffett Named ‘Manager’ of 2008 Boardroom All-Star Team

(via msnbcmedia.msn.com)

Warren Buffett ranks number one on Directorship magazine’s new list of the most admired board directors. Its Annual Survey of Exceptional Directors is compiled using “data from proxy firms, reader polls and governance experts.”

5. Special Situations Real Money Portfolio March 2008 Update

(via www.fatpitchfinancials.com)

Another update of the Special Situations Real Money Portfolio, my experiment in arbitrage investing. This month I talk about a profitless tender offer and the decline in price of three positions that have been held for several months.

6. Prof. Bruce Greenwald’s Talk on Value Investing

(via fundooprofessor.blogspot.com)

The talk, titled, “Value Investing Frameworks and Business Analytics” was delivered by Prof. Greenwald to an audience of 220 guests from the Indian investment community at Hotel Taj President in Mumbai On January 8.

7. Interview with Robert Rodriguez of FPA

(via www.investors.com)

Nice little interview with Bob Rodriguez, who along with Seth Klarman, always seems to have a good handle on the pulse of the financial markets.

8. Third Avenue Q1 Shareholder Letters

(via www.thirdavenuefunds.com)

Martin Whitman devotes a section of his quarterly letter to refuting William Ackman’s views on MBIA. My favorite sentence: “The argument that if an entity is in trouble, every liability on the balance sheet of that entity is also in trouble is strictly ‘amateur hour’.”

9. Altria’s Spin Cost Basis

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Here is the cost basis for your shares

10. Buffett Beats Bernanke

(via www.fool.com)

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is in a rough spot these days. When he lowers interest rates, the specter of stagflation is raised. When he rescues Bear Stearns from potential bankruptcy by brokering a sale to JPMorgan Chase, he’s chided for guaranteeing billions in private subprime loans with public money.

11. Bill Miller’s wishful thinking

(via money.cnn.com)

The value manager wants a better deal for Yahoo, but like so many takeover targets it has no better offers.

12. Value investing is supposed to get ugly

(via www.advisor.ca)

One of the tenets of value investing is there will be times when it’s going to get ugly. Problem is, for a lot of established value firms, things have never looked uglier — leading some advisors to question the wisdom of the strategy. But fund analysts say there is merit to what value firms are doing right now and investors should wait before they write off their value holdings.
Posted April 9th, 2008 by SilverSlime | Tags:


13. Q & A: Which Gurus Are Not Hurt By Credit Crisis?

(via www.gurufocus.com)

This is an interview GuruFocus had with Swiss magazine BILANZ. The questions and answers.

14. FDA Tobacco Bill: A Partnership

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

This bill will end up being an FDA endorsement of tobacco

15. Swimming Happily Against the Tide — Third Avenue’s Marty Whitman Finds Lots to Buy

(via online.barrons.com)

In the midst of the market mayhem last August, Third Avenue Management sent a two-page letter to shareholders in its four mutual funds, including its flagship $10 billion Third Avenue Value Fund. The message: It’s time to buy.

16. Credit crisis over says top fund manager

(via www.citywire.co.uk)

Bill Miller of Legg Mason Investment Management believes the Bear Stearns bailout two weeks ago marks the end of the credit crisis.


17. MBA Advice from the Oracle of Omaha

(via www4.gsb.columbia.edu)

On March 21 I flew to Omaha — along with 150 of my classmates — to meet Warren Buffett, MS ’51, a man I have admired (some friends would say fanatically idolized) for close to 15 years.

18. Free Cash Yield: The Best Valuation Statistic?

(via magicdiligence.com)

There is only one valuation statistic that takes into account a company’s free cash production and balance sheet risk, and allows you to compare it’s valuation against other stocks, bonds, and treasuries. That statistic is the little used free cash yield measure.

19. Beware of Blind Contrarianism!

(via streetcapitalist.com)

Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Those words aren’t mine, they belong to Warren Buffett. For now though, they remain incredibly relevant to the type of investment environment we’re in.

20. Fat Pitch Financials Portfolio First Quarter 2008

(via www.fatpitchfinancials.com)

A review of the performance of the Fat Pitch Financials Portfolio for the first quarter of 2008.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Wilbur Ross on Credit Markets (C),(GS)

The billionaire investor had some interesting thought sin a recent interview..

In the interview he said:
Q:How is the credit market looking now?

A: The market isn’t going to stay broken forever. Citibank (C) is selling loans back to borrowers. $12 billion is not the end of the earth, but it’s a good start. Citi must feel that they’ve marked loans properly to market. If you haven’t marked these to market, you can’t really sell them because that would crystallize a loss.

Similarly, Goldman Sachs (GS) announced recently that they had sold some of their Chrysler debt at 63 cents on the dollar. That’s a terrible number, but at least they found a taker for them and offloaded some debt.

Every time some of this logjam is reduced, it’s constructive. But remember that there’s hundreds of billions of paper that’s stuck, versus tens of millions that’s only recently become unstuck.

Q:So what’s the duration? Six months? A year?

A: I doubt this will take longer than 24 months.

With his purchases of Assured Guarentee (AGO), American Home Mortgage and Option One, Ross is buy far making the largest individual bet that the end of the mess is near. Based on his almost flawless history, I would have a hard time betting against him.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long C, GS, none

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Shell CEO Talks About Oil and Gas (video)

Gonna be a real expensive summer says Shell Oil’s(RDS) CEO Hoffmeister..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Friday's Links

More Greenie, Soros, Couric, WOW

Another rebuke

– No George, it is government meddling on the market that cause bubbles… it was government that pushed home ownership on those who clearly were not ready for it..

Good riddance

– If this ever happened to my daughter these kids parents would be in hiding for their own protection………

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Friday’s Links

More Greenie, Soros, Couric, WOW

Another rebuke

– No George, it is government meddling on the market that cause bubbles… it was government that pushed home ownership on those who clearly were not ready for it..

Good riddance

– If this ever happened to my daughter these kids parents would be in hiding for their own protection………

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GE's Results, Now a Buy?

So, GE(GE) disappointed and shares are getting pummeled, down 11%. Is it a buying opportunity? I guess I am wondering why one would want to own it anyway?

First the numbers:
Profit from continuing operations dropped to $4.36 billion, or 44 cents a share, from $4.93 billion, or 48 cents, a year earlier. Revenue rose 8 percent to $42.2 billion, less than GE’s prediction of about $44 billion. GE was expected to earn 51 cents a share.

CEO Jeffrey Immelt cut also the annual forecast he had once told investors was “in the bag” for 2008 and did so again on March 13. He says capital markets seized up just days later, forcing GE to slash the value of some securities in the last two weeks of the quarter and blocking some asset sales. The new EPS forecast is $2.20 to $2.30 a share, down from the previous forecast of “at least $2.42”.

So,should you pick up shares? Not me. Even with the sell off today GE still trades at 15 times the new earnings but does sport a 3.8% yield.

For all its diverse businesses GE is essentially s financial services company with 40% of earnings coming from that division. Immelt said today finance units may have a profit decline of 5% to 10% this year and that will offset a non-financial units increase 10% to 15%. The other main driver is it infrastructure business which grew EPS 17%.

All that being said, when you have a business as large and diverse as GE, the value to shareholders comes down to the man at the top. Look at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). A huge business that is basically an insurance business that, like GE, has its other businesses in industry. The difference is that with Berkshire, you have Warren Buffett, perhaps the greatest capital allocator ever at the helm. Through that, he can drive results. Immelt is good, but he is no Warren.

There comes a point where conglomerates simply become to large for shareholders to truly benefit from the performance of the diverse businesses. What happens is a mean reversion to mediocrity in the multiple people will pay for shares. This is why for the last 7 years GE has traded between $30 and $40 a share with only a brief drop below in 2002.

GE’s financial services and health care divisions are now a drag on the high flyer like infrastructure. By itself, it would command a PE of at least 20 based on its growth rate and prospects. GE as a whole now trades at 15.

What GE should do is an Altrai (MO) like spin of the infrastructure business to the shareholders. Without that business, the multiple left on what is left on GE would shrink and then you would have a potential value opportunity there with a nice fat dividend yield. Value inclined investors would likely pick up shares, support the price. This would be offset for current shareholders by the PE expansion on the infrastructure business.

This would allow shareholders to fully benefit from the current strong growth in the infrastructure business while at the same time allowing them to participate in the rebound in financial services and health care.

Likely? No. Would work though..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MO,None

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GE’s Results, Now a Buy?

So, GE(GE) disappointed and shares are getting pummeled, down 11%. Is it a buying opportunity? I guess I am wondering why one would want to own it anyway?

First the numbers:
Profit from continuing operations dropped to $4.36 billion, or 44 cents a share, from $4.93 billion, or 48 cents, a year earlier. Revenue rose 8 percent to $42.2 billion, less than GE’s prediction of about $44 billion. GE was expected to earn 51 cents a share.

CEO Jeffrey Immelt cut also the annual forecast he had once told investors was “in the bag” for 2008 and did so again on March 13. He says capital markets seized up just days later, forcing GE to slash the value of some securities in the last two weeks of the quarter and blocking some asset sales. The new EPS forecast is $2.20 to $2.30 a share, down from the previous forecast of “at least $2.42”.

So,should you pick up shares? Not me. Even with the sell off today GE still trades at 15 times the new earnings but does sport a 3.8% yield.

For all its diverse businesses GE is essentially s financial services company with 40% of earnings coming from that division. Immelt said today finance units may have a profit decline of 5% to 10% this year and that will offset a non-financial units increase 10% to 15%. The other main driver is it infrastructure business which grew EPS 17%.

All that being said, when you have a business as large and diverse as GE, the value to shareholders comes down to the man at the top. Look at Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A). A huge business that is basically an insurance business that, like GE, has its other businesses in industry. The difference is that with Berkshire, you have Warren Buffett, perhaps the greatest capital allocator ever at the helm. Through that, he can drive results. Immelt is good, but he is no Warren.

There comes a point where conglomerates simply become to large for shareholders to truly benefit from the performance of the diverse businesses. What happens is a mean reversion to mediocrity in the multiple people will pay for shares. This is why for the last 7 years GE has traded between $30 and $40 a share with only a brief drop below in 2002.

GE’s financial services and health care divisions are now a drag on the high flyer like infrastructure. By itself, it would command a PE of at least 20 based on its growth rate and prospects. GE as a whole now trades at 15.

What GE should do is an Altrai (MO) like spin of the infrastructure business to the shareholders. Without that business, the multiple left on what is left on GE would shrink and then you would have a potential value opportunity there with a nice fat dividend yield. Value inclined investors would likely pick up shares, support the price. This would be offset for current shareholders by the PE expansion on the infrastructure business.

This would allow shareholders to fully benefit from the current strong growth in the infrastructure business while at the same time allowing them to participate in the rebound in financial services and health care.

Likely? No. Would work though..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MO,None

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Picks
Jeff Macke recommends Wal-Mart (WMT) $54.66 on a dip.

Guy Adami prefers Cephalon (CEPH) $64.89.

Tim Seymour likes ConocoPhillips (COP) $79.32

Jon Najarian thinks Cameco (CCJ) $37.42 is a buy.

Thursday’s Results
Jeff Macke likes Boeing (BA) $78.6. Close $78.43 LOSS

Guy Adami recommends AMR Corp. (AMR) $9.17 for a short covering rally.Close $9.87 GAIN

Pete Najarian thinks investors should buy puts in Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) $19.40 Close $19.60 LOSS

Tim Seymour prefers shorting Mechel (MTL) $142.88 and buying it back at $130. $151.50 LOSS

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 25-20-1
Tim Seymore= 14-9
Guy Adami= 25-23
Pete Najarian= 27-22
Karen Finerman= 20-24-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades

Upgrades

KON Office (IKN)- Cross Research Hold » Buy
Aruba Networks (ARUN)- Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Nationwide (NFS)- UBS Neutral » Buy
ADC Telecom (ADCT)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Analog Devices (ADI)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
National Semi (NSM)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
PMC-Sierra (PMCS)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Power Integrations (POWI)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
LSI Logic (LSI)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Semtech (SMTC)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Intel (INTC)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy

Downgrades

Owens-Illinois (OI)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Ventas (VTR)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Methanex (MEOH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
AmerisourceBergen (ABC)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Cardinal Health (CAH)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
McKesson (MCK)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Virgin Media (VMED)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Mannkind (MNKD)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Hain Celestial (HAIN)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Ralcorp Holdings (RAH)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Pantry (PTRY)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Dentsply (XRAY)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Patterson Companies (PDCO) Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Lennox Intl (LII)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Cheniere Energy (LNG)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Watsco (WSO)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
PetroChina (PTR)- Citigroup Hold » Sell

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades

Upgrades

KON Office (IKN)- Cross Research Hold » Buy
Aruba Networks (ARUN)- Brean Murray Hold » Buy
Nationwide (NFS)- UBS Neutral » Buy
ADC Telecom (ADCT)- Deutsche Securities Hold » Buy
Analog Devices (ADI)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
National Semi (NSM)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
PMC-Sierra (PMCS)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Power Integrations (POWI)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
LSI Logic (LSI)- Banc of America Sec Sell » Neutral
Semtech (SMTC)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy
Intel (INTC)- Banc of America Sec Neutral » Buy

Downgrades

Owens-Illinois (OI)- Longbow Buy » Neutral
Ventas (VTR)- Stifel Nicolaus Buy » Hold
Methanex (MEOH)- UBS Buy » Neutral
AmerisourceBergen (ABC)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Cardinal Health (CAH)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
McKesson (MCK)- Citigroup Buy » Hold
Virgin Media (VMED)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
Cirrus Logic (CRUS)- Oppenheimer Outperform » Perform
Mannkind (MNKD)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Hain Celestial (HAIN)- JP Morgan Overweight » Underweight
Ralcorp Holdings (RAH)- JP Morgan Neutral » Underweight
Pantry (PTRY)- Friedman Billings Outperform » Mkt Perform
Dentsply (XRAY)- Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Patterson Companies (PDCO) Robert W. Baird Outperform » Neutral
Lennox Intl (LII)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Cheniere Energy (LNG)- Lehman Brothers Overweight » Equal-weight
Watsco (WSO)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
PetroChina (PTR)- Citigroup Hold » Sell

Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Lampert Adds to AutoZone (AZO)

In an SEC filing moments ago, Sears Holdings (SHLD) Chairman Eddie Lampert disclosed he purchased an additional 239,000 shares of AutoZone at prices of $113 to $116 a share between 4/8 and 4/9.

Lampert and affiliates now own 22.3 million shares or 36% of the total

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Wal-Mart's Guidance Increase: Get Used To It

If people are shopping at Wal-Mart (WMT) because of their “wealth evaporation” then it will be years before the trend reverses..

Wal-Mart said first-quarter earnings would come in higher than the company previously expected. They now see its first-quarter earnings between 74 cents and 76 cents per share, compared to its previous estimate 70 cents to 74 cents per share.

Now a common refrain out there is that people are trading down to Wal-Mart from Target (TGT). I happen to disagree. While I think some people are indeed trading down, the changes the company has made to scores of locations, it online dominance and its new “Save More, Live Better” ad campaign have more to do with it. But, for arguments sake, lets go with “trading down”.

The wealth loss in the US is due to one thing, housing. People still have jobs as the unemployment rate is low and wages are actually rising. It is the value of their homes, their largest expense, and the fear that illicits are creating the current environment.

Now, since housing prices have fallen at the fastest rate in almost 100 years, this wealth deficit has been dramatic. It also means that a recovery to pre-bubble levels will take years, maybe decades. People who bought homes in the last 3 years have a negative equity or, now not enough to tap for loans. Sensing this, they will spend accordingly.

If this is the reason people are running to Wal-Mart rather than the other retailers, one can only assume this trend will be in effect for the foreseeable future.

For shareholders of Wal-Mart, that is indeed good news. For holders of Target (TGT), JC Penny (JCP) and others, it means rapidly shrinking margins and the necessity to redefine themselves.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT

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Wal-Mart’s Guidance Increase: Get Used To It

If people are shopping at Wal-Mart (WMT) because of their “wealth evaporation” then it will be years before the trend reverses..

Wal-Mart said first-quarter earnings would come in higher than the company previously expected. They now see its first-quarter earnings between 74 cents and 76 cents per share, compared to its previous estimate 70 cents to 74 cents per share.

Now a common refrain out there is that people are trading down to Wal-Mart from Target (TGT). I happen to disagree. While I think some people are indeed trading down, the changes the company has made to scores of locations, it online dominance and its new “Save More, Live Better” ad campaign have more to do with it. But, for arguments sake, lets go with “trading down”.

The wealth loss in the US is due to one thing, housing. People still have jobs as the unemployment rate is low and wages are actually rising. It is the value of their homes, their largest expense, and the fear that illicits are creating the current environment.

Now, since housing prices have fallen at the fastest rate in almost 100 years, this wealth deficit has been dramatic. It also means that a recovery to pre-bubble levels will take years, maybe decades. People who bought homes in the last 3 years have a negative equity or, now not enough to tap for loans. Sensing this, they will spend accordingly.

If this is the reason people are running to Wal-Mart rather than the other retailers, one can only assume this trend will be in effect for the foreseeable future.

For shareholders of Wal-Mart, that is indeed good news. For holders of Target (TGT), JC Penny (JCP) and others, it means rapidly shrinking margins and the necessity to redefine themselves.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WMT

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