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March's Most Popular Posts

Here is what folks read the most of in March.

1- Altria’s Spin: Your Questions Answered

2- Ackman’s Target Loss: Wow


3- Circuit City Being Sold Soon?

4- Altria’s Kraft Spin: Q & A


5- T2 Partners Glenn Tounge on Berkshire (Video)

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Weekend Reading At VIN

Her are the Top 20 this week at Value Investing News
1. Official SEC XML Feeds
(via www.fatpitchfinancials.com)

This weekend I spotted orange XML feed images all over EDGAR. It looks like the SEC finally added feeds to the output of their database. Now we can track company filing updates from our news readers!

2. CS21 Net/Net Index Week in Review: Into Positive Territory

(via stocksbelowncav.blogspot.com)

Cheap Stock’s index of net/net stocks was very volatile this past week, with 20% of index members up at least 12%.

3. Premier Exhibitions (PRXI): Value not Without Controversy

(via stocksbelowncav.blogspot.com)

Good write up of the value in Premier Exhibitions. Be sure to check out the accurate and funny comment at the end.

4. Forum on Emerging Issues & Trends in Real Estate – University of Missouri

(via business.missouri.edu)

Warren Buffett will be speaking for an hour at this event on Friday, April 4, 2008. It is a free event open to the public.

5. Fooled by a Percentage Into Catching Falling Knife!

(via fundooprofessor.blogspot.com)

The good professor discusses the problem of price anchoring.

6. Little Books For Big Profits

(via magicdiligence.com)

Combining Joel Greenblatt’s The Little Book that Beats the Market with Pat Dorsey’s The Little Book that Builds Wealth provides an investor with a framework for finding the best value based investment opportunities on the market today.

7. Ackman’s Target Loss..wow

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Ackman lost a cool $8oo plus million so far

8. US recession will not hinder those emerging market stocks

(via www.ft.com)

Mark Mobius of Templeton Emerging Markets sees continued growth in emerging markets even though the U.S. facing a recession.

9. Multiple Disciplines

(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)

Charlie Munger advocates learning multiple disciplines to add to a latticework of mental models. This post goes over how to apply some rules of economics to investing.

10. Peter Lynch Interview

(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)

Famed mutual fund manager is interviewed.

11. Small Cap Stock Ideas

(via www.stockpursuit.com)

Some small-cap stock ideas. Some are contrarian. Boss Holdings is a Benjamin Graham Net Current Asset Stock.

12. Overstock’s Moat

(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)

Overstock.com is a tech company that doesn’t appear to have a moat, this article disputes that

13. Recurring Revenues and Industrials

(via valuediscipline.blogspot.com)

Economic uncertainty generally steers investors toward steady eddy businesses such as foods, consumer staples, healthcare and utilities. But what investors should be seeking is recurring revenues, predictable and stable revenues with a high degree of certainty.

14. Altria’s Spin Cost Basis

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Here is the cost basis for your shares

15. Third Avenue Q1 Shareholder Letters

(via www.thirdavenuefunds.com)

Martin Whitman devotes a section of his quarterly letter to refuting William Ackman’s views on MBIA. My favorite sentence: “The argument that if an entity is in trouble, every liability on the balance sheet of that entity is also in trouble is strictly ‘amateur hour’.”

16. Borders New Concept Store (Video)

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Here is what it looks like

17. Borders Delays 10-K

(via valueplays.blogspot.com)

Some scenario’s involving the recent announcement

18. N*1 Screen: Sanderson Farms

(via ei-forum.com)

Looking for value, we decided to run one of our typical ‘best in industry’ screens on companies with a market capitalization of under 1,000,000 USD. The only company that made the screen is Sanderson Farms (SAFM). We had followed this company in the past but the stock had been severely punished during the avian-flu scare and is slowly recovering.

19. Market Underestimating Ingersoll-Rand’s (IR) Earnings Power

(via collegeanalysts.com)

Ingersoll-Rand, after a series of acquisitions and divestitures, is set to become a leading “cyclical-lite” with significant earnings power thanks to its climate control segment.

20. Moslty an Rant

(via mikesnewsletterinvesting.blogspot.com)

How I got screwed over by government regulations, and why restsraint on how minors can manage their money are unecesary.

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Friday’s links

XM, BuyBacks, Financial Blogger Study, Roth IRA’s

– This is one of those gadgets I will actually use..

– Jeff Matthews as a great post on the subject

– Here is a study that shows bloggers do have influence

– Here are some new rules for those of you with a ROTH

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Friday's links

XM, BuyBacks, Financial Blogger Study, Roth IRA’s

– This is one of those gadgets I will actually use..

– Jeff Matthews as a great post on the subject

– Here is a study that shows bloggers do have influence

– Here are some new rules for those of you with a ROTH

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Circuit City Responds to Wattles

Circuit City’s (CC) Board responded to Mark Wattles demands today.

In said letter they said (letter below):

April 4, 2008

Mark J. Wattles
Wattles Capital Management, LLC
7945 W. Sahara Avenue, Suite 205
Las Vegas, NV 89117

Dear Mark:

We have received your letter of April 2, 2008, in which you indicate that you would like to meet with the Circuit City Board of Directors or with its lead director to discuss your views regarding Circuit City. I will contact you to set a mutually agreeable time.

It appears to me from your letter and certain other statements that you may not have a full understanding of the Company’s current strategy and challenges, and I think a conversation will help provide a better picture of those efforts and possibly facilitate a more productive dialogue between the Company and your firm. I also want to note that the company had previously reached out to you to set up a meeting following the year-end management quiet period or to listen to your concerns prior to our reporting date.

It was a surprise to read that you would not permit the individuals you have proposed as nominees to the Company’s Board of Directors to meet with the Nominating and Governance Committee of the Board without imposing an unusual and unreasonable condition for such a meeting. Our practice is for the Committee to evaluate director nominees proposed by shareholders in the same manner it evaluates other prospective nominees. We believe this is a very standard and appropriate process. The Board strives to select for its membership highly qualified individuals who are dedicated to advancing the interests of the Company’s shareholders and actively seeks nominees who will bring diverse talents, experiences and perspectives to the Board’s deliberations. Certainly you would agree the Board has an obligation to its shareholders to thoroughly research and personally interview potential members. This is even more true given that your proposal to remove the entire Circuit City Board would, if adopted, give your nominees absolute control of the entire Board.

I trust that we can resolve this point in a personal conversation, so that the Nominating and Governance Committee can meet the individuals you have nominated to the board, and separately look forward to the opportunity to meet with you.
Sincerely,

/s/ Mikael Salovaara
[JT]

Here is the “between the lines” on this one. Wattles is attacking both the Board and CEO Schoonover. What the board is going to do is offer up Schoonover as a sacrificial lamb to get Wattles to back off his demand to remake the Board.

Defending Schoonover is an exercise in futility as the “conditions” the company now facing are of his creation and even those who are his closest allies must realize this. If they do not, CC’s problems are deeper than anyone thinks.

They are going to go through the public pronouncements necessary to save face but when all is said and done, Schoonover is out.
That being said, we can now officially beginning the “Schoonover Reign Death Watch”

My guess is that before the month is out CC has a new CEO.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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UBS Plan May Be the Road Map for Financials

UBS (UBS) this week unveiled a plan that may just be the blueprint for other banks with troubled loans on their balance sheets.

UBS essentially has placed securities linked to US mortgages into a separate subsidiary. The eventual goal will be either to spin off the subsidiary or, in the short term, sell chunks of it to investors.

Doing it this way would essentially remove the loans from the balance sheet and restore critical ratios. Lehman Brothers (LEH) CFO Erin Callahan essentially confirmed the plan when she said on CNBC “we want to continue to move illiquid securities of the balance sheet”.

This is somewhat similar to the “Super SIV” fund that was bantered about last summer but never gained traction as the banks bickered about who would contribute and control what. Now that much of the credit crunch has washed through the system, buyers like Wilbur Ross have begun to emerge as buyers of mortgage assets.

The fact that some buyers have emerged is good news as it says to us the logjam in this asset base shows some signs of loosening.

Look for Citigroup (C), Meryl Lynch (MER), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wachovia (WB) to begin talking about a similar action. For shareholders, restoring the balance sheet in this manner is preferable to a large dilution on unfavorable term like the ones we have been seeing lately.

Disclosure (“none” means no position): Long C, WB, None

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Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Liberty Media (LINTA)- Janco Partners Mkt Perform » Accumulate
Phoenix Tech (PTEC)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Devon Energy (DVN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Sappi Limited (SPP)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
National City (NCC)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Outperform
Marathon Oil (MRO)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Renasant (RNST)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
AbitibiBowater (ABH)- DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform
I-TRAX (DMX)- Dougherty & Company Buy » Sell
Plexus (PLXS)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Copa Holdings (CPA)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sourcefire (FIRE)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
VMware (VMW)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
Art Technology (ARTG)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
State Auto Fin (STFC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Infinity Prpty & Casualty (IPCC)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Prosperity Bancshares (PRSP)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
FirstFed Financial (FED)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Blackbaud (BLKB)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Underperform
Cisco Systems (CSCO)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Portugal Telecom (PT)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Urban Outfitters (URBN)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
North Valley Bancorp (NOVB)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
AFLAC (AFL)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

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Friday's Upgrades and Downgrades


Upgrades
Liberty Media (LINTA)- Janco Partners Mkt Perform » Accumulate
Phoenix Tech (PTEC)- Roth Capital Hold » Buy
Devon Energy (DVN)- JP Morgan Neutral » Overweight
Sappi Limited (SPP)- Credit Suisse Neutral » Outperform
National City (NCC)- Bear Stearns Underperform » Outperform
Marathon Oil (MRO)- Oppenheimer Perform » Outperform

Downgrades
Renasant (RNST)- Janney Mntgmy Scott Buy » Neutral
AbitibiBowater (ABH)- DA Davidson Neutral » Underperform
I-TRAX (DMX)- Dougherty & Company Buy » Sell
Plexus (PLXS)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Copa Holdings (CPA)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Sourcefire (FIRE)- RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform
VMware (VMW)- Lazard Capital Buy » Hold
Art Technology (ARTG)- Roth Capital Buy » Hold
State Auto Fin (STFC)- Piper Jaffray Neutral » Sell
Infinity Prpty & Casualty (IPCC)- Piper Jaffray Buy » Neutral
Prosperity Bancshares (PRSP)- Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Buy » Neutral
FirstFed Financial (FED)- Credit Suisse Outperform » Neutral
Blackbaud (BLKB)- Jefferies & Co Buy » Underperform
Cisco Systems (CSCO)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Portugal Telecom (PT)- UBS Buy » Neutral
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)- JP Morgan Overweight » Neutral
Urban Outfitters (URBN)- Morgan Keegan Outperform » Mkt Perform
North Valley Bancorp (NOVB)- DA Davidson Buy » Neutral
AFLAC (AFL)- Banc of America Sec Buy » Neutral

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"Fast Money" for Friday


Friday’s Picks
Jeff Macke likes Apple (AAPL) $151.61

Guy Adami prefers Corning (GLW) $25.53

Karen Finerman recommends Microsoft (MSFT) $29.0

Pete Najarian thinks Walter Industries (WLT) $69.08 is a buy.

Thursday’s Picks
Guy Adami likes Western Digital (WDC) $27.57 Close $28.85 GAIN

Karen Finerman recommends shorting Capital One (COF) $53.18 Close $52.99 LOSS

Pete Nararian thinks Nokia (NOK) $33.7 is a buy. Close $33.75 GAIN

Jeff Macke likes Apple (AAPL) $147.49 Close $151.61 GAIN

2008 Records:
Brian Schaeffer= 0-1
Carter Worth= 0-1
Jon Najarian= 4-1
Jeff Macke= 24-17
Tim Seymore= 14-8
Guy Adami= 22-22
Pete Najarian= 25-19
Karen Finerman= 18-23-1
Joe Terrenova= 1-1

2007 Results (Since 6/21):
Guy Adami= 58-46 = 56%
Jeff Macke= 60-40 = 60%
Pete Najarian= 49-41 = 54%

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Wattles Demands Schoonover’s Dismissal

Activist Mark Wattles has had the best line to date on Circuit City’s (CC) turnaround effort.

Wattles said management “has repeatedly touted the fact that they have cut $200 million of annualized selling, general and administrative expenses while ignoring the fact that approximately $500 million of gross profit has been wiped-out in the process.”

Beautiful…

He has also nominated 5 people to the Board of Directors and a proxy fight is on.

I first wrote about CC almost a year ago now and speculated it may be a good buy-out candidate. Not soon after that I backed off that claim after watching Schoonover & Crew’s various missteps and have since said that the company is still a good buy-out candidate, but not until current management is gone.

The WJS ran a piece Thursday that said “The company has a lot of financial commitments to stores in sub-par locations. Many retailers have gone the way of all flesh. It’s a precarious industry. Their former big box stores litter the landscape like giant ruins. Circuit City could certainly follow suit. The advantage of a $4.65 share price, as speculators are wont to joke, is that you know your downside. That’s even more true of the options. There is nothing wrong with taking a flyer, so long as you know that’s what you’re doing.”

Now, to a point the author is correct in that at $4.50 a share, the downside is minimal. But, unless you buy a bunch, so is the upside. Your profit or loss is based on what your total investment is, regardless of share price.

Whether a stock is $100 or $2, really does not matter, it is the dollar amount you buy that matters. If I by 2 shares at $100 or 100 shares at $2, my investment is the same.

All that being said, I may buy the day Schoonover leaves, but not a second before. Given the current economy and his track record, $4.50 is much more likely to become $2.50 than $6.50 in the near future.

If shareholders are lucky, Wattles gets his wish….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Wattles Demands Schoonover's Dismissal

Activist Mark Wattles has had the best line to date on Circuit City’s (CC) turnaround effort.

Wattles said management “has repeatedly touted the fact that they have cut $200 million of annualized selling, general and administrative expenses while ignoring the fact that approximately $500 million of gross profit has been wiped-out in the process.”

Beautiful…

He has also nominated 5 people to the Board of Directors and a proxy fight is on.

I first wrote about CC almost a year ago now and speculated it may be a good buy-out candidate. Not soon after that I backed off that claim after watching Schoonover & Crew’s various missteps and have since said that the company is still a good buy-out candidate, but not until current management is gone.

The WJS ran a piece Thursday that said “The company has a lot of financial commitments to stores in sub-par locations. Many retailers have gone the way of all flesh. It’s a precarious industry. Their former big box stores litter the landscape like giant ruins. Circuit City could certainly follow suit. The advantage of a $4.65 share price, as speculators are wont to joke, is that you know your downside. That’s even more true of the options. There is nothing wrong with taking a flyer, so long as you know that’s what you’re doing.”

Now, to a point the author is correct in that at $4.50 a share, the downside is minimal. But, unless you buy a bunch, so is the upside. Your profit or loss is based on what your total investment is, regardless of share price.

Whether a stock is $100 or $2, really does not matter, it is the dollar amount you buy that matters. If I by 2 shares at $100 or 100 shares at $2, my investment is the same.

All that being said, I may buy the day Schoonover leaves, but not a second before. Given the current economy and his track record, $4.50 is much more likely to become $2.50 than $6.50 in the near future.

If shareholders are lucky, Wattles gets his wish….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Another Court Win for Altria

Back in August I wrote, “the legal environment surrounding tobacco has not been this good in 20 year. I just got better.

The 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals Thursday reversed U.S. District Judge Jack B. Weinstein’s 2006 decision certifying a class of smokers in what became known as the “Schwab Case”. The suit sought $280 billion.

Altria argued that the lower-court judge was wrong in granting class-action status to the case, saying the certification was “overbroad” and the issues were so individualized for each brand or each smoker’s own circumstances that the case couldn’t be effectively grouped in such a class.

Altria also said the class certified by Judge Weinstein would cover “nearly everyone who ever purchased a cigarette”. Why? Light cigarettes weren’t introduced until the 70’s, and have been used by only an estimated 50 million U.S. residents.

The court agreed with Altria, saying, “Because individual issues outweigh issues susceptible to common proof, the class is not maintainable,”.

As if that was not enough, the court followed that rebuke of Weinstein with these gems:

* Federal law “is not a one-way ratchet, empowering a judge to conform the law to the proof.”
* Neither of plaintiffs’ theories of injury “is plausible as a matter of law.”
* Plaintiffs’ theory of distribution of damages “is an impermissible affront to defendants’ due process rights.”

I think that is the closest I have ever seen a court essentially say to another judge “are you #$#@$$ kidding me?”

For their part, Altria said today, “Philip Morris USA is pleased with today’s decision and believes the court came to the right conclusion in light of the overwhelming precedent denying class certification in smokers’ litigation,”: Murray Garnick, Altria Client Services senior vice president and associate general counsel.

I think this essentially ends any serious class action litigation against tobacco. With losses in both Florida and Illinois in the last two years added to this one, plaintiff’s attorneys are not going to see the payoff and the end of the rainbow in this litigation and will move on to the next cause dujor. There is far too many costs involved to bring these suits when to outcome bias has clearly switched against them.

This is not to say there will not be the occasional suit here and there, but billion dollar settlements are done….

The US tobacco litigation risk is now insignificant………..

Other defendants were R.J. Reynolds Tobacco (RAI), Loews Corp.’s Lorillard Tobacco (LTR), Vector Group Ltd.’s Liggett Group (VGR) and British American Tobacco (BAT) .

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MO, PM, None

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Altria Spin Cost Basis

Here is the cost basis for your shares after the spin for both altria (MO) and Phillip Morris International (PM).

Your Altria shares are to be adjusted to 30.5% of the cost and your PM shares are at 69.5%.

Here is the document from Altria.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long MO, PM

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Thursday’s Links

Penthouse, Snow tires, Grads, iPhones

_ I wonder what the stock certificate will look like?

– This is pretty cool

Here is who is hiring…

– OK….are we officially sick of hearing about this?

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Thursday's Links

Penthouse, Snow tires, Grads, iPhones

_ I wonder what the stock certificate will look like?

– This is pretty cool

Here is who is hiring…

– OK….are we officially sick of hearing about this?

Todd Sullivan's- ValuePlays

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