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Pershing Square General Growth Swap Details

Have been getting a bunch of questions regarding General Growth (GGWPQ). The majority tend to be of the “is it too late to buy?” vein.

I thought I would answer by giving some of Bill Ackman’s (the company’s largest shareholder) ownership data. Remember, Ackman has said he feels he may eventually see 13 times appreciation over his purchase prices. The swaps are settled monthly with collateral being posted in either direction based on the movement of the stock price and a cash payment in either direction at expiration..

Chart (click to enlarge)

SEC Filing


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Bloomberg Looks at Natural Gas Rise

Reader know we hold both UNG (UNG) the natural gas ETF and Oct. 16 calls on UNG. Analysis and Discussion with Neal Dingmann of Wunderlich Securities.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long UNG

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Tuesday’s Links

Iran, Inflation, Cell Tax, Stimulus

– As much as this will be very bad for everyone, can you blame them?

– I agree. I just can’t see a way this is avoided

– This is too much.We are being nickeled and dimed to death people. Have you ever looked at your cell phone bill? It is already taxed insanely…

– If Geithner is wrong, the mess he will have created just may today look like the “good ‘ole days”. To in one sentence call actions unprescedented and then claim they have an exit strategy is dishonest. There is no road map here. If that is true, to then say with any degree of confidence you know how to unwind what you have done is either dishonest or naive. Either is dangerous…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Lenders Seek To Remove Malls From General Growth Chapter 11

There are two questions we need to answer:
– Will they be successful?
– Does it matter?

First the news:

From the Providence Journal:

In a filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York City, MetLife contends General Growth is trying to “cramdown” a wholesale reorganization plan for its more than 200 mall properties that will hurt the insurer’s financial interests in Providence Place.

“No reorganizational purpose is served by allowing [the mall owners] to have the benefits and powers of Chapter 11,” MetLife states in a recent court filing.

MetLife contends the mall’s net operating income, a standard measure of the cash flow generated by real estate holdings, is more than enough to satisfy the debt payments tied to Providence Place.

General Growth borrowed nearly $400 million from Lehman Brothers Bank on Providence Place shortly after it took control of the retail center in 2004. In August 2005, Lehman Brothers sold a portion of that debt, $104.3 million, to MetLife, secured by the Providence Place property.

According to the court filing, Providence Place generated $9.9 million in free cash in 2008, after subtracting the roughly $25 million in total payments due on two loans on the property. MetLife also claims General Growth made no effort to refinance or extend its loan from MetLife.

The borrowing, on a shopping center that had changed hands only months before for $510 million, is symptomatic of the problems General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP:NYSE) created for itself as it amassed a portfolio of more than 200 properties in 44 states.

General Growth filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after failing to persuade a majority of its debt holders to give it more time to refinance billions of dollars in debt racked up during an aggressive expansion that included the $11.3-billion purchase of Rouse Co. in 2004. Just months before, Baltimore, Md.-based Rouse had purchased Providence Place for $510 million from the developers who built the shopping center in the late 1990s.

General Growth had about $29.6 billion in assets and more than $27 billion in liabilities as of Dec. 31, according to documents filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York.

MetLife’s demand, first made in a May 29 filing, followed similar ones by other lenders to General Growth. On May 7, a unit of Wells Fargo Bank asked the court to pull Boston’s Faneuil Hall Marketplace out of the massive bankruptcy case, citing much the same reasoning used by MetLife.

Wells Fargo-FHM claims rents at Faneuil Hall Marketplace are large enough to cover the monthly loan payments and operating costs at the iconic shopping center.

Clarion Capital Services LLC, which holds mortgages on eight malls General Growth owns in the West, has made the same request in a separate filing.

Where to start. Simply put, in order for the entities to be removed from the Chapter 11 process, the essentially have to prove that GGP engaged in “bad faith” in its filing.

General Growth Council answers this claim:

“Against this backdrop, Movants’ claim of “bad faith” filing is meritless. In this Circuit, dismissal for lack of good faith should be granted “sparingly, with great caution,” In re G.S. Distrib., Inc., 331 B.R. 552, 566 (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. 2005) (Gropper, J.) (internal quotation marks omitted), and only “if both [1] objective futility of the reorganization process and [2] subjective bad faith in filing the petition are found.” In re Kingston Square Assocs., 214 B.R. 713, 725 (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. 1997) (emphasis in original). A bankruptcy petition should not be dismissed unless “it is clear that on the filing date there was no reasonable likelihood that the debtor intended to reorganize and no reasonable probability that it would eventually emerge from bankruptcy proceedings.” Baker v. Latham Sparrowbush Assocs. (In re Cohoes Indus. Terminal, Inc.), 931 F.2d 222, 227 (2d Cir. 1991). The Movants bear this heavy burden, but they do not and cannot satisfy it.

► Reorganization Is Not Objectively Futile. Because they have nothing to say about
this requirement, Movants ignore it. Not only do Movants fail to offer any evidence of objective futility, but the facts they assert and that are disclosed in their depositions – that the project entities presently have positive cash flows and are current on their loans – dispel the notion that a restructuring here would be futile. Rather, these claimed facts establish a reasonable likelihood that the debtors can successfully emerge from bankruptcy. The motions fail for this reason alone.

► There Is No Subjective Bad Faith. The crux of Movants’ argument is that the
filing was in bad faith because the Project Debtors currently are not at risk of imminent default. This ignores that two of the Project Debtors, Faneuil Hall Marketplace, LLC and RS Properties Inc., already were in default before filing for bankruptcy, and is not the relevant legal standard in any event. Rather, a debtor need only “face such financial difficulty that, if it did not file at that time, it could anticipate the need to file in the future.” Cohoes, 931 F.2d at 228. Given the
condition of the credit markets, the boards made a considered and reasonable judgment that filing for bankruptcy and undertaking a coordinated restructuring now would maximize stakeholder value for each Project Debtor. Waiting for a series of anticipated defaults would benefit no one.

Finally, ING speculates that one of the Project Debtors – the Lancaster Trust – is a
land trust and therefore “may not” be eligible to file for bankruptcy. ING is legally and factually incorrect. Like any other trust, a land trust may file for bankruptcy, so long as it engages in some business activity. Here, the Lancaster Trust is an operating business, just like every other GGP project-level subsidiary, and its leasing documents reflect that it is in fact an Illinois business trust. It is, therefore, eligible to file under the Bankruptcy Code.”

Now, did GGP make a good faith effort to extend loan before filing Chapter 11?:

As GGP’s President and COO Thomas Nolan testified, “the master servicers indicated [to GGP] that they had no ability to make any meaningful amendments, adjustments, restructurings on the – on the loans and that until such time as a loan went into default, that they weren’t capable or they weren’t allowed under their servicing agreements to engage in any discussion [of] restructurings and that only those matters could be addressed with the special servicer.” (Ex. 3, Nolan Dep. at
29:8-17) Helios’ corporate representative likewise testified that if a borrower had contacted the special servicer concerning the terms of a loan for which a special servicing event had not yet occurred, the special servicer would have refused to discuss the issue: “We would simply explain that a servicing transfer event has not occurred and that our authority under the PSA is triggered only by a servicing transfer event. They – there was no role that we can play in the discussions, negotiations of a loan until after the servicing transfer event.”

In other words, under the CMBS structure, master servicers generally do not have authority to renegotiate loan terms. That authority resides with the special servicers but the Project Debtors cannot talk to the special servicers until the loan is close to, or in, default. The bankruptcy filings thus eliminated one of the fundamental structural impediments to renegotiating CMBS loan terms.29

So then what are the courts parameters in calling a filing “in bad faith” and thus removing entities currently in bankruptcy?

In re Kingston Square Assocs., 214 B.R. 713, 725 (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. 1997); see In re RCM Global Long Term Capital Appreciation Fund, Ltd., 200 B.R. 514, 520 (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. 1996), the court held a bankruptcy petition should not be dismissed unless “it is clear that on the filing date” that (1) “there was no reasonable likelihood that the debtor intended to reorganize,” and (2) there was “no reasonable probability that it would eventually emerge from bankruptcy proceedings.”

The SPE’s actually in a round about way make the case that the Chapter 11 filings, based on their claims that the entities included are viable make the case FOR GGP that emergence from Chapter 11 was not only planned but likely, thus rendering the “bad faith” argument moot.

Neither of the above conditions apply to General Growth Properties, because of that, based on case law, the motions for the entities to be removed from the Chapter 11 process ought to be denied.

If they are denied, and again, once in Court the outcome is never guaranteed, then a global solution will be more likely for General Growth. A global solution, barring a total collapse of the CRE market means shareholders ought to be happy when this is concluded.

Full Filing:
GGP 705


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Inflation’s "Green Shoots"

A press release hit the wires a few minutes ago that ought to make people look again at the inflations meme.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW) announced today that it will increase the off schedule prices for Acrylic Monomers in North America and Latin America, effective July 1, 2009, or as contracts allow. The increases are $0.10/lb or
$220/MT for Acrylates, Methacrylates and Specialty Monomers.

The company also announced it will increase the off schedule prices in Europe and Asia for Acrylates, Methacrylates and Specialty Monomers by $0.3/lb or $70/MT, effective July 1, 2009.

These increases are necessitated by the continuous cost escalation of key raw
materials used to manufacture monomer products.

Now Dow is a “building blocks” company. In its simplest terms, they make the stuff people use all over the world to make stuff we use. If they are increasing prices, then those prices either:

1- Get absorbed by the companies buying their chemicals, causing profits to fall or:
2- Get passed onto to end users (us) causing consumer prices to rise

We have been told repeatedly that inflation will not be a problem. Yet, we are beginning to see anecdotal evidence that it is brewing. Admittedly these are not widespread price increases but they are price increases that effect scores of industries.

It bears very close watching….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow

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Six Flags “Inherited” Problem

Six Flags (SIXF) CEO Mark Shaprio is at it again. He issued a letter to employees and in it was, for me, a startling paragraph.

The letter is below but there is one paragraph you really have to read:

Unfortunately, however, as you know, we inherited an unsustainable $2.4 billion debt load from the previous management team. To put it into context, even if you have a record year and make approximately $275 million as we did last year, when you have to pay out approximately $175 million in interest expense on your debt and $100MM in park improvements to maintain and keep up with the business, that’s a balancing act you just can’t risk year in and year out. Furthermore, we have over $400 million of debt coming due within the next 12 months that cannot be refinanced in these financial markets.

Let’s look at it. Shapiro is saying that he “inherited” the current situation (that seems to be the excuse of the moment recently?). But, he didn’t. Daniel Snyder waged a proxy contest in 2005 against the management team at Six Flags. He was successful at placing Shaprio in as the head of the company. Shapiro and his team sought out the situation they are currently in, they did not “inherit” it.

Proof?

In 2005 Snyder, when he proposed Shaprio and himself be named to the board at Six Flags said in an SEC filing:

Although we believe the entire Board should be held accountable to stockholders and removed for the Company’s underperformance, we are seeking only a non-majority position on the Board due to the approximately $2.6 billion in poison debt and preferred stock (collectively, the “poison debt”) the Company has put in place over the years. The Company’s approximately $2.6 billion in “poison debt” permits the holders of such securities to either accelerate the outstanding amounts or require the Company to offer to repurchase the securities if we (or any other party) were to obtain a majority position on the Board. For this reason, if elected, our Nominees will not be able to cause the Board to take (or not take) any specific actions, but we are confident that our Nominees will use their best efforts to influence the Board and management and bring about changes that in their judgment are in the best interests of all Six Flags’ stockholders.

We believe that with the right management team in place, Six Flags can implement measures to increase revenue and decrease expenses, eventually outperform its peers in the amusement, recreation and leisure industry and maximize stockholder value. Therefore, on or about the time we file our definitive consent solicitation statement with the SEC, we plan to commence a fully funded cash tender offer (the “Offer”) to purchase up to 34.9% of the Company’s outstanding Shares (the calculation of such percentage to include any Shares we own at the time we accept Shares for purchase pursuant to the Offer) at a price of $6.50 per share. The Offer will be on the terms and subject to the conditions to be set forth in an offer to purchase and related letter of transmittal which we plan to file with the SEC at the commencement of the Offer.

Six Flags answered Snyder by saying:

Red Zone contends that the Company’s strategies must be completely overhauled. Yet, the evidence, in our judgement, shows that our plan is working. Starting in late 2003, the Company launched a series of initiatives to improve performance, including targeted capital expenditures, improved guest services and the aggressive launch of a new advertising program. Early results of the turnaround include significant increases in attendance, per capita spending and cash flow. The Company recently reported that year-to-date revenues through August 1 of this year were 9.8% higher than in the comparable period of the prior year, on an attendance increase of 6.3%. This compares to a 1.8% decrease in revenues in the comparable 2004 period over the prior year and an attendance decrease of 4.2%.

If any of that reasoning sounds familiar, it should. It is the same lame attempt at painting a rosy picture for a money losing operation Shaprio has been using every quarter since he assumed control. Read the letter below, it is there…

Also from the “other guys playbook”. Snyder in his letters chiding previous management said they “cannot continue to blame bad weather for poor results”. Yet, in 2007, Shaprio rolled out he very same excuse.

Let’s just say Shapiro inherited nothing, he got exactly what he and Snyder wanted. It should be noted here that over he last two years, current management added net $240 million of debt onto the company’s exhisting debt load.

Now, am I defending prior management? No. Six flags has been doomed for years and the above paragraph in Shaprio’s letter seems to admit it . The letter is stunning in that it openly admits even in a record year, Six Flags will be a money loser. In his haste to blame previous management, he in effect lays a question mark on anything he has said about “increasing shareholder value” in the past.

Daniel Snyder is on record saying Shapiro and his team’s performance “exceeded expectations”. Well, if a record year that exceed expectations resulted in a loss and an admission that the situation was unsustainable, then how did they ever really expect to turn a profit?

When all is said and done, despite all the rhetoric, Six Flags performance has gone nowhere. In 2005 the company had operating income of $129 million on revenues of $956 million and debt of $2.24 billion and lost $1.17 a share. In 2008, the company made $143 million from operations on $1.02 billion in revenues while carrying $2.36 billion in debt and losing $1.11 a share. Flat-lined….

Shaprio & Co. did increased liabilities by $600 million while decreasing assets by $400 million and increasing share count by 4 million. If you are wondering, none of these are good. Want more? Cash from operations, $120 million in 2005, fell to $66 million in 2008. In 2005 the company repaid $46 million of debt while in 2008 it added $275 million. Again, both of these bad…

I think in retrospect one would have a hard time arguing that an unfettered buyout process proposed in 2005 by pre-Snyder management, at the near height of the Private Equity buying bonanza may just have resulted in shareholders getting a far better deal when all was said and done…

Six Flags Letter to Employees


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Monday’s Links

California, Letterman, Inspector General, FOB

– Not for nothing, BUT, why do states have AG offices if they use contingency fee attorney’s?

– As a father of a daughter, Dave needs a good old fashioned ass kicking…Shame on Matt Laure for defending him. Just when I thought I could not have less respect for the guy….he stoops even lower.

– This will be ignored unless the guy goes public but this scary stuff. Think any other IG is going to look at FOB (friends of Obama) if they think they can get fired?

– This article nails it. The MSM is asleep at the wheel here. They can’t stop these actions but ignoring them is just sad…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Six Flags Mercifully Reaches its Inevitable Conclusion

Six Flags (SIX) CEO Mark Shaprio is the kind of guy who could urinate on you and tell you with smile he is “rinsing some dust off you”.

From the NY Times:

The amusement park company Six Flags is seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, saying it needs to reorganize and shed $1.8 billion of debt.

Mark Shapiro, the New York-based company’s chief executive officer, says the move won’t affect the operation of its 20 theme parks in the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

Six Flags says it actually had a great year in 2008. It saw 25 million visitors and posted record revenues. But executives are trying to lighten a $2.4 billion debt load that they say is unsustainable.

Saturday’s bankruptcy filing came after an earlier plan to negotiate an out-of-court deal with creditors failed.

Six Flags shares have traded below $1 since September. They closed at 26 cents on Friday.

A “great year”. Now while the $1.11 a share they lost last year is better than the $2.49 and $2.43 they lost the previous two years, I think only the pathologically incompetent would call it “a great year”. For those of you wondering, since Daniel Snyder took over the company, they never made a dime…..or a penny.

Here is a brief review of some thoughts on Six Flags here from the past:
It is an interesting timeline of events as I go back through the old posts. You can see some them in order here, here, here, here and finally here.

Just recently in March I wrote:

Now, the story of Six Flags is not one of a bad economy, although it is certainly a factor. The main story is a poorly run operation saddled with far too much debt and a lousy consumer experience.

Teenagers love the place, just ask any of them. It is designed for them from the rides to the entertainment to the layout. But, teenagers are not where the money is. It is families that are. Six Flags is quite possibly the least family friendly place I have ever been too. That is their downfall.

Since my boys were born we have done Disney (DIS), Hershey Park (HSY), Sesame Place, Canobie Lake (NH), Storyland (NH) and Santa’s Village (NH). All were incalculably better experiences than Six Flags. Talking to other folks, this is not an uncommon experience.

Six Flags will go under, of that there has never been a doubt, I wish the next owners better luck. They have great properties, they just need better people to run them.

The bankruptcy filing will wipe out the ownership stake of Washington Redskins owner Daniel Snyder, who took control of Six Flags in a public and contentious proxy fight in late 2005 and brought in his own management team who have finished the company off.

“Stockholders would have been better off hiding their money under a mattress” than investing in the company under the prior management, Mr. Snyder wrote in a letter to Six Flag shareholders in October 2005, during the proxy battle. At the time, Six Flags shares were trading at about $7.25, today they are worthless.

There is nothing left here for shareholder, they are done. Debtholders will assume the company and the only thing left to decide is whether to break it up, sell it, or make a go off it.

Don’t get me wrong, I like trying to enjoy myself with my <6 yr. old children while avoiding the cursing and smoking teenage mobs who run rampant in the park as much as the next guy, but I think it tends to put a damper on most folks day.

Whatever the new owners decide to do, who ever picks up the pieces and tries to make a go of it, I have one word for them …..FAMILY…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Sunday Humor

Not safe for work, wives, moms or kids…This is hysterical though….


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Saturday Humor


Obama Drastically Scales Back Goals For America After Visiting Denny’s


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Tobacco and The FDA: A Partnership

Here is a flashback to a post I wrote in April 2008.

Let’s take a look at the FDA Tobacco Bill and see what effect it may have on the industry.

The bill would effect tobacco products manufactured and sold primarily by R.J. Reynolds Tobacco (RAI), Loews Corp.’s Lorillard Tobacco (LTR), Vector Group Ltd.’s Liggett Group (VGR), British American Tobacco (BAT) and Altria (MO) in the US.

The bill will enable the FDA to prevent the introduction of new cigarette brands.

“`(1) NEW TOBACCO PRODUCT DEFINED- For purposes of this section the term `new tobacco product’ means–

`(A) any tobacco product (including those products in test markets) that was not commercially marketed in the United States as of June 1, 2003; or

`(B) any modification (including a change in design, any component, any part, or any constituent, including a smoke constituent, or in the content, delivery or form of nicotine, or any other additive or ingredient) of a tobacco product where the modified product was commercially marketed in the United States after June 1, 2003.

`(2) PREMARKET APPROVAL REQUIRED-

`(A) NEW PRODUCTS- Approval under this section of an application for premarket approval for any new tobacco product is required.”

Now, what could cause a new product to be denied?

“(2) DENIAL OF APPROVAL- The Secretary shall deny approval of an application for a tobacco product if, upon the basis of the information submitted to the Secretary as part of the application and any other information before the Secretary with respect to such tobacco product, the Secretary finds that–

`(A) there is a lack of a showing that permitting such tobacco product to be marketed would be appropriate for the protection of the public health;”

In other words, do not expect a new cigarette to be introduced in the US. What is here now is what will be here 20 years from now. If you are Altria (MO), and have over 50% market share, this is very good news indeed. It also means that recently introduced low cost products may come under review and alterations to the product may become necessary that will substantially raise the cost of it. A shrinking cost basis for consumers between brands, will most likely cause many to “trade up” to the premium brand.

Currently, any litigation risk in cigarettes surrounds alleged fraud. Fraud in marketing and fraud in labeling. What will the FDA bill do? It completely removes the risk of litigation for fraud and allows the tobacco companies to tell consumers that they are complying with government product safety standards. By doing this they assure a safer product produced under the guidance of the FDA. Let’s look.

Since most of the current litigation is of the “Light” cigarettes, lets go to that section.

SEC. 911. MODIFIED RISK TOBACCO PRODUCTS.

`(a) In General- No person may introduce or deliver for introduction into interstate commerce any modified risk tobacco product unless approval of an application filed pursuant to subsection (d) is effective with respect to such product.

`(b) Definitions- In this section:

`(1) MODIFIED RISK TOBACCO PRODUCT- The term `modified risk tobacco product’ means any tobacco product that is sold or distributed for use to reduce harm or the risk of tobacco-related disease associated with commercially marketed tobacco products.

This means FDA approval of all claims on “light” and “low tar” cigarettes. This clause means that FDA approval of these cigarettes does give their stamp of approval that “light” is “safer”.

What are the conditions for approval?

Approval-

`(1) MODIFIED RISK PRODUCTS- Except as provided in paragraph (2), the Secretary shall approve an application for a modified risk tobacco product filed under this section only if the Secretary determines that the applicant has demonstrated that such product, as it is actually used by consumers, will–

`(A) significantly reduce harm and the risk of tobacco-related disease to individual tobacco users; and

`(B) benefit the health of the population as a whole taking into account both users of tobacco products and persons who do not currently use tobacco products.

They do not have to be “safe”, just “safer” than the current choice to legally be called “light”.

The bill also requires the FDA to inspect tobacco sellers for counterfeit cigarettes and report instances to the applicable Attorney General “immediately”. This has been a very large issue for domestic manufacturers as foreign “knockoffs” have entered the country and cost Altria millions of dollars in annual revenue. The bill effectively makes the FDA the “sheriff” and forces them to protect the market.

Could the FDA ban tobacco? The bill says no.

“`(3) POWER RESERVED TO CONGRESS- Because of the importance of a decision of the Secretary to issue a regulation establishing a tobacco product standard–

`(A) banning all cigarettes, all smokeless tobacco products, all little cigars, all cigars other than little cigars, all pipe tobacco, or all roll your own tobacco products; or

`(B) requiring the reduction of nicotine yields of a tobacco product to zero,

Congress expressly reserves to itself such power.”

Will Congress ban tobacco? Never…..How will the States ever replace the billions of dollars in tax revenue they receive from taxing them?

What the bill does is stop the FDA from banning tobacco and forces them to endorse it…..

The final bill passed yesterday (it is not materially different that the previous bill above)and cheers were heard from many in the Tobacco industry. That ought to have been clue #1, that this was not as advertised by those in government.

It essentially creates a government sponsored Tobacco Cartel in the US that cannot be broken into by outside players. Personally, I do not care either way. I am no longer an Altria shareholder, preferring to holds my Phillip Morris International (PM) share received in the spin off from Altria.

The government can’t kill Tobacco as they rely on it too much for tax revenues. As a matter of fact, states who are receiving master settlement money have already mortgaged the future there selling bonds based on that revenue. The final bill mandate the FDA cannot remove nicotine from cigarettes so they will still be just a addicting. The bill “reduces advertising” it claims. So what? They hardly advertise now? But, hey, at least the warning labels will get bigger because we know people pay attention to those…yeah..

This bill will only serve to strengthen Big Tobacco in the US and considerable expense to US tax payers and is yet another example of why government needs to stay out of business.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long PM, none

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CRE/CMBS Disaster Imminent? Not So Fast

The general theory has been, and even I speculated here in March that commercial real estate (CRE) & commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) may be the next shoe to drop. But, there have been some event recently that force us to take a closer look.

Since March we have seen improvement in the AAA rated CMBS market, mostly due to the TALF being used there. Again, no comment on the “right or wrong” of this action, but it is undeniably helping this market.

Then we had none other than Sam Zell coming out and saying that all the talk of a REIT industry “melt down” was overblown.

Most recently was the very important news that loan servicers were looking at extending maturities on debt from the customary 6-12 months to out as far as 5 years

Now this from the WSJ:

With the commercial real-estate industry bracing itself for the onslaught of hundreds of billions of dollars in maturing loans, the Treasury is considering issuing rules that will make it easier for property developers and investors and their loan servicers to restructure debt, according to people familiar with the matter.

Tax rules make it difficult for borrowers who are current on their payments to hold restructuring talks with the servicers of commercial mortgages that were packaged and sold as bonds. This lack of flexibility was one of the reasons cited by the management of mall giant General Growth Properties Inc. for its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in April.

At present, developers and investors complain that only those who are delinquent can talk to servicers of these bonds, named commercial-mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS. But now the Treasury is considering issuing guidance that would allow servicers to start talking about ways to avoid defaults and foreclosures sooner, possibly at least two years ahead of the maturity date of a loan, these people said. The Treasury guidance, which could be released within weeks, would essentially enable loan-modification talks to take place without triggering tax consequences, these people say.

What does it mean? If we convert this to housing. You are having trouble with you loan. Under the current rules, the banks could not talk to you about altering your loan until you defaulted. Once is default on commercial loans, all sort of cross defaults and debt covenants are triggers across other debt. This is bad.

When Treasury alters the current rules, loans can be altered BEFORE default. This huge and it retrospect may have save General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) from Chapter 11 as it was not able to restructure loans until it defaulted which then drove into 11.

Back to the article:

… property owners and investors hoping to restructure troubled mortgages are hearing a tough message from CMBS servicers: We can’t talk to you unless you first fall behind on payments. This is because when CMBS offerings are created, the underlying mortgages are legally held by tax-free trusts. The trusts can be forced to pay taxes if the underlying loans are modified before they become delinquent, according to current CMBS rules.

“It can be frustrating,” says Monty Bennett, chief executive of Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc. The Dallas-based real-estate investment trust that owns 102 upscale hotels has tried to start negotiations with servicers for extensions of payment deadlines for CMBS loans coming due. They have had little success. “You’re trying to be proactive and get a plan together to address [a loan maturity], but you can’t get someone to talk to you

There are scores of operationally healthy REIT’s that will simply not be able to restructure debt as it comes due to stagnant credit markets and will suffer the same fate as GGWPWQ. By allowing refinancing (for lack of a better word) before default, many will be avoided. Will there still be defaults and REIT collapses? Yes. But the key difference will be that those falling by the wayside will not be healthy organizations but the weak that deserve to fade away.

Yesterday I had an email exchange with Davidson on the subject and he said:

All the noise about Alt-A and Commercial Real Estate being the tsunami on the horizon tells me that this one will be solved as well. I can tell you that private equity funds of $billions have been established to capture value. Roth of Vornado (VNO), Simon of Simon Prop (SPG) have cash to buy up the best properties that may be thrown on the market. Some one may take a hit but these guys may be stumbling over themselves to buy this troubled stuff and in the end a solution will clear the inventory.

It would seem that the commercial real estate (CRE) market has watched and learned something from what happened in housing. They are taking proactive steps to stave off a total meltdown. For instance REIT’s have already issued equity and cut dividends (issuing them in stock rather than cash) ahead of problems rather than well after as the banks did with housing. This means that going into any problem they are already capitalized to levels that will allow far more of them to remain healthy and actually expand operations as this develops.

Does it mean there is not some pain in store? There surely is. But, I think one has to revisit the “total collapse” meme and perhaps materially alter that. Now if Treasury opts not to modify the current rule (which does not make much sense by the way) then we may very well see considerable pain here. Based on recent actions though, I think it is safe to assume something is coming from them.

I am going to begin to look far closer at this sector and will report in as I find things..


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ, None

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The CMBS Market Inventor Interviewed $$

This is a wide ranging interview. Really well done…

Ethan Penner – Interview

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Friday’s Links

Amherst, Natural Gas, Fed, Shareholders

– This may be a bit odd, but I take pleasure in seeing some little firm take the major banks for a ride…legally.

– Now is the time…it is going higher

– This story could develop into something. There will be a patsy that goes down in all of this, it remains to be seen if it is Lewis, Bernanke or Geithner…

– This is too bad. Barney Frank makes some good points in this piece on shareholder rights but is such a hostile person, he ruins it at the end with a tantrum…He seems to not get the point that this is an interview, not a speech…






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Davidson: "Risk to Trust Always Present"

Davidson is back with more data and commentary inferring the worst may indeed be over. He has provided the charts at the end of his commentary.

“Davidson” sumbits:

The point to observe in all this is that market psychology went from cautious to panic on the Lehman failure Sept. 15th, 2008. Corporations experienced an almost immediate freezing of short term cash accounts which cascaded into Money Market funds as a literal “run on the bank” and an almost complete halt to credit based import/export and capital transactions in the US and around the world.

The reason the global financial system works is that all participants trust that certain rules will be followed and that terms in contracts will be honored. When it became clear that marginal participants had gamed the system and infected it with contracts that had violated the accepted standards of conduct, trust in exactly which contractual arrangements would be honored experienced a dramatic decline for all contracts.

The psychology of trust is elemental to a global financial system. With trust the system works! Without trust the system fails!

The system requires rules that all understand and that cannot be arbitrarily changed.

At the moment trust in the global financial system is returning as is reflected in The Conference Board’s reports of the past few days. Declaring victory, declaring the “End of the Recession” as many would like to do at this time is always subject to continuing trust in the system.

I have just finished Amity Shlaes’ “The Forgotten Man” a new and refreshing look at the Great Depression. I highly recommend it. While many previous authors have focused on policy issues, legislation errors, banking errors and the like, Shlaes’ focus is centered on the intangible quality of “Trust in the System” and how when trust is lost the system fails to function. Corporations and individuals hold on to cash not knowing who or what to trust. Just as we recently experienced!

Trust is returning, but if someone again games the rules, then trust can be lost. Market participants are working through the issues one at a time.

Risk to trust is always present.






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