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Railroads….. "Green"

For those looking for “green investments”, the answer may just be rolling through cities and towns all over America.

For instance, Burlington Norhthern recently announced:

BNSF Railway Company (BNSF) today announced that it has developed a new tool that allows shippers to quantify the amount of carbon emissions that can be saved for those route segments on rail instead of over the road. Overall, shipping by BNSF can save Americans an average of 200 pounds of greenhouse gas emissions per American per year, which is the equivalent of planting 37 trees for each person living in the United States.
“Earlier this year, BNSF provided its customers with customized letters that analyzed their total rail carbon footprint and savings compared to movements of those shipments over the road,” said John Lanigan, executive vice president and chief marketing officer. “Because of the overwhelming positive customer response to this yearly analysis, we wanted to provide our customers with a tool they can use to determine environmental benefits before they make their transportation choice.”
The new BNSF Carbon Estimator tool bases its calculations on commodity type and weight, and distance traveled by rail. It also takes into consideration the different fuel efficiency of trailer, container or carload shipments, and incorporates the required truck movements to and from BNSF intermodal facilities. The calculations used by the BNSF Carbon Estimator and its accuracy have been verified by Clear Carbon Consulting.
“In addition to conserving scarce energy resources, rail provides tremendous value in reducing the country’s overall transportation emissions and carbon footprint,” Lanigan said. “In 2008, BNSF reduced our nation’s greenhouse gas emissions by 30 million metric tons by moving shipments over the rail rather than on our nation’s crowded highways. We hope this new tool helps our customers make greener transportation choices. After all, if you can’t calculate it, you can’t change it.”

Consider this:

Association of American Railroads -Research Report Smart Effective Way to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions J…

Here is one thing to consider. It seems that some type of “Cap & Trade” system is coming down the pike. Could shipping by rail be part of it in order to reduce emissions? We know that it does, we just need to know if/how it is included in the legislation. If it is, that could be a huge boon to railroads, all of them. The first ones to look at would be those that serve industrial markets as those would be the heaviest emitters and thus those most likely to use rail in some fashion for carbon reduction means.

I have not looked any further into it other than postulating and won’t until the legislation gets out of the amoeba stage and into something tangible. At that point though, it does bear a much closer look because it very well could cause a substantial and permanent change in rail demand…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Dow Ag Still Up For Sale?

I thought we had put this to bed but this little item in the South China Morning Post caught my attention:

China National Chemical Corp, the mainland’s largest chemicals maker, has returned to the bidders’ table after Dow Chemical (DOW) restarted an auction for its agricultural chemical unit, Dow AgroSciences, which could fetch as much as US$7 billion, market sources said pitting ChemChina against Monsanto and Switzerland’s Sygenta, the world’s biggest farm chemicals maker. Sources told the paper that the odds are against a successful acquisition by ChemChina, as Monsanto (MON) and Sygenta’s businesses are more in line with those of Dow AgroSciences. ChemChina has previously rejected offers of a minority stake in the unit, favoring a takeover or joint venture. Chinese chemical firms such as Sinochem, Sinopec and ChemChina have been pursuing overseas acquisitions to expand their product offerings.

We need to look back here. Originally, Dow had planned have the Rohm purchase bridge loan of $9.5 billion down to a balance of $4.2 billion in 90 days. As of last mid-May, the loan is now down to $3 billion, meaning $1.2 billion additional has been paid off 55 days ahead of schedule according to the company.

Dow said it continues to look at its options to sell units. In addition to over $3 billion from the sale of Morton Salt, TRN, Calcium Chloride and other units, Dow is considering raising $4 billion to $6 billion from businesses in a successor to the K-Dow Petrochemicals deal or regional agreements; $1 to $2 billion from aromatics and derivatives.

Dow has also since then announced another $900 million in asset sales

Based on that, there is no reason to sell Dow Ag, none. If the goal is truly to turn Dow into a stable earnings growth company, the Dow Ag must be an integral part of the finished product. Further, when one considers the current market we are in, selling an asset like Dow Ag into it is not going to garnish full value for the seller. If the unit must be even partially sold, doing it a year from now when we are further into the recovery would reap far more value for shareholders.

Now, this still may just be taking bids to see if an “offer we can’t refuse” is submitted or to garner concrete value for a partial IPO. Still, when perhaps the most valuable part of a company is even being mentioned in a sale process, investors are wise to keep close tabs on it.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DOW ,none

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Thursday’s Links Bogle-palooza

All Bogle..note to Mornigstar, make your vid embeddable. Charging $8500 to put the on a blog is insane….has anyone actually ever bought one? Wider distribution will get you more readers, free embeds would do just that..

– How to keep your portfolio on track

– Bogle addresses the notion that “buy and hold” is dead

– What the business of investing is all about

– “This is the worst bear market I have ever seen”


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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New Addition

The Sullivan clan added a 4th child Wed. am. Posting to be limited this week.

Thank You

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Wednesday’s Links

Google, Breastfeeding, Berkowitz, Berkowitz

– Logging twitter feeds……this I think bigger news than people are making it out to be for those of us on Twitter

Breastfeeding & kids. FTR, I am pro-breasts

– Berkowitz and AmeriCredit

– Berkowitz and his Florida land deal


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Pershing Square General Growth Swap Details

Have been getting a bunch of questions regarding General Growth (GGWPQ). The majority tend to be of the “is it too late to buy?” vein.

I thought I would answer by giving some of Bill Ackman’s (the company’s largest shareholder) ownership data. Remember, Ackman has said he feels he may eventually see 13 times appreciation over his purchase prices. The swaps are settled monthly with collateral being posted in either direction based on the movement of the stock price and a cash payment in either direction at expiration..

Chart (click to enlarge)

SEC Filing


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Bloomberg Looks at Natural Gas Rise

Reader know we hold both UNG (UNG) the natural gas ETF and Oct. 16 calls on UNG. Analysis and Discussion with Neal Dingmann of Wunderlich Securities.


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long UNG

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Tuesday’s Links

Iran, Inflation, Cell Tax, Stimulus

– As much as this will be very bad for everyone, can you blame them?

– I agree. I just can’t see a way this is avoided

– This is too much.We are being nickeled and dimed to death people. Have you ever looked at your cell phone bill? It is already taxed insanely…

– If Geithner is wrong, the mess he will have created just may today look like the “good ‘ole days”. To in one sentence call actions unprescedented and then claim they have an exit strategy is dishonest. There is no road map here. If that is true, to then say with any degree of confidence you know how to unwind what you have done is either dishonest or naive. Either is dangerous…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Lenders Seek To Remove Malls From General Growth Chapter 11

There are two questions we need to answer:
– Will they be successful?
– Does it matter?

First the news:

From the Providence Journal:

In a filing with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New York City, MetLife contends General Growth is trying to “cramdown” a wholesale reorganization plan for its more than 200 mall properties that will hurt the insurer’s financial interests in Providence Place.

“No reorganizational purpose is served by allowing [the mall owners] to have the benefits and powers of Chapter 11,” MetLife states in a recent court filing.

MetLife contends the mall’s net operating income, a standard measure of the cash flow generated by real estate holdings, is more than enough to satisfy the debt payments tied to Providence Place.

General Growth borrowed nearly $400 million from Lehman Brothers Bank on Providence Place shortly after it took control of the retail center in 2004. In August 2005, Lehman Brothers sold a portion of that debt, $104.3 million, to MetLife, secured by the Providence Place property.

According to the court filing, Providence Place generated $9.9 million in free cash in 2008, after subtracting the roughly $25 million in total payments due on two loans on the property. MetLife also claims General Growth made no effort to refinance or extend its loan from MetLife.

The borrowing, on a shopping center that had changed hands only months before for $510 million, is symptomatic of the problems General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP:NYSE) created for itself as it amassed a portfolio of more than 200 properties in 44 states.

General Growth filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after failing to persuade a majority of its debt holders to give it more time to refinance billions of dollars in debt racked up during an aggressive expansion that included the $11.3-billion purchase of Rouse Co. in 2004. Just months before, Baltimore, Md.-based Rouse had purchased Providence Place for $510 million from the developers who built the shopping center in the late 1990s.

General Growth had about $29.6 billion in assets and more than $27 billion in liabilities as of Dec. 31, according to documents filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York.

MetLife’s demand, first made in a May 29 filing, followed similar ones by other lenders to General Growth. On May 7, a unit of Wells Fargo Bank asked the court to pull Boston’s Faneuil Hall Marketplace out of the massive bankruptcy case, citing much the same reasoning used by MetLife.

Wells Fargo-FHM claims rents at Faneuil Hall Marketplace are large enough to cover the monthly loan payments and operating costs at the iconic shopping center.

Clarion Capital Services LLC, which holds mortgages on eight malls General Growth owns in the West, has made the same request in a separate filing.

Where to start. Simply put, in order for the entities to be removed from the Chapter 11 process, the essentially have to prove that GGP engaged in “bad faith” in its filing.

General Growth Council answers this claim:

“Against this backdrop, Movants’ claim of “bad faith” filing is meritless. In this Circuit, dismissal for lack of good faith should be granted “sparingly, with great caution,” In re G.S. Distrib., Inc., 331 B.R. 552, 566 (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. 2005) (Gropper, J.) (internal quotation marks omitted), and only “if both [1] objective futility of the reorganization process and [2] subjective bad faith in filing the petition are found.” In re Kingston Square Assocs., 214 B.R. 713, 725 (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. 1997) (emphasis in original). A bankruptcy petition should not be dismissed unless “it is clear that on the filing date there was no reasonable likelihood that the debtor intended to reorganize and no reasonable probability that it would eventually emerge from bankruptcy proceedings.” Baker v. Latham Sparrowbush Assocs. (In re Cohoes Indus. Terminal, Inc.), 931 F.2d 222, 227 (2d Cir. 1991). The Movants bear this heavy burden, but they do not and cannot satisfy it.

► Reorganization Is Not Objectively Futile. Because they have nothing to say about
this requirement, Movants ignore it. Not only do Movants fail to offer any evidence of objective futility, but the facts they assert and that are disclosed in their depositions – that the project entities presently have positive cash flows and are current on their loans – dispel the notion that a restructuring here would be futile. Rather, these claimed facts establish a reasonable likelihood that the debtors can successfully emerge from bankruptcy. The motions fail for this reason alone.

► There Is No Subjective Bad Faith. The crux of Movants’ argument is that the
filing was in bad faith because the Project Debtors currently are not at risk of imminent default. This ignores that two of the Project Debtors, Faneuil Hall Marketplace, LLC and RS Properties Inc., already were in default before filing for bankruptcy, and is not the relevant legal standard in any event. Rather, a debtor need only “face such financial difficulty that, if it did not file at that time, it could anticipate the need to file in the future.” Cohoes, 931 F.2d at 228. Given the
condition of the credit markets, the boards made a considered and reasonable judgment that filing for bankruptcy and undertaking a coordinated restructuring now would maximize stakeholder value for each Project Debtor. Waiting for a series of anticipated defaults would benefit no one.

Finally, ING speculates that one of the Project Debtors – the Lancaster Trust – is a
land trust and therefore “may not” be eligible to file for bankruptcy. ING is legally and factually incorrect. Like any other trust, a land trust may file for bankruptcy, so long as it engages in some business activity. Here, the Lancaster Trust is an operating business, just like every other GGP project-level subsidiary, and its leasing documents reflect that it is in fact an Illinois business trust. It is, therefore, eligible to file under the Bankruptcy Code.”

Now, did GGP make a good faith effort to extend loan before filing Chapter 11?:

As GGP’s President and COO Thomas Nolan testified, “the master servicers indicated [to GGP] that they had no ability to make any meaningful amendments, adjustments, restructurings on the – on the loans and that until such time as a loan went into default, that they weren’t capable or they weren’t allowed under their servicing agreements to engage in any discussion [of] restructurings and that only those matters could be addressed with the special servicer.” (Ex. 3, Nolan Dep. at
29:8-17) Helios’ corporate representative likewise testified that if a borrower had contacted the special servicer concerning the terms of a loan for which a special servicing event had not yet occurred, the special servicer would have refused to discuss the issue: “We would simply explain that a servicing transfer event has not occurred and that our authority under the PSA is triggered only by a servicing transfer event. They – there was no role that we can play in the discussions, negotiations of a loan until after the servicing transfer event.”

In other words, under the CMBS structure, master servicers generally do not have authority to renegotiate loan terms. That authority resides with the special servicers but the Project Debtors cannot talk to the special servicers until the loan is close to, or in, default. The bankruptcy filings thus eliminated one of the fundamental structural impediments to renegotiating CMBS loan terms.29

So then what are the courts parameters in calling a filing “in bad faith” and thus removing entities currently in bankruptcy?

In re Kingston Square Assocs., 214 B.R. 713, 725 (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. 1997); see In re RCM Global Long Term Capital Appreciation Fund, Ltd., 200 B.R. 514, 520 (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. 1996), the court held a bankruptcy petition should not be dismissed unless “it is clear that on the filing date” that (1) “there was no reasonable likelihood that the debtor intended to reorganize,” and (2) there was “no reasonable probability that it would eventually emerge from bankruptcy proceedings.”

The SPE’s actually in a round about way make the case that the Chapter 11 filings, based on their claims that the entities included are viable make the case FOR GGP that emergence from Chapter 11 was not only planned but likely, thus rendering the “bad faith” argument moot.

Neither of the above conditions apply to General Growth Properties, because of that, based on case law, the motions for the entities to be removed from the Chapter 11 process ought to be denied.

If they are denied, and again, once in Court the outcome is never guaranteed, then a global solution will be more likely for General Growth. A global solution, barring a total collapse of the CRE market means shareholders ought to be happy when this is concluded.

Full Filing:
GGP 705


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long GGWPQ

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Inflation’s "Green Shoots"

A press release hit the wires a few minutes ago that ought to make people look again at the inflations meme.

The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE:DOW) announced today that it will increase the off schedule prices for Acrylic Monomers in North America and Latin America, effective July 1, 2009, or as contracts allow. The increases are $0.10/lb or
$220/MT for Acrylates, Methacrylates and Specialty Monomers.

The company also announced it will increase the off schedule prices in Europe and Asia for Acrylates, Methacrylates and Specialty Monomers by $0.3/lb or $70/MT, effective July 1, 2009.

These increases are necessitated by the continuous cost escalation of key raw
materials used to manufacture monomer products.

Now Dow is a “building blocks” company. In its simplest terms, they make the stuff people use all over the world to make stuff we use. If they are increasing prices, then those prices either:

1- Get absorbed by the companies buying their chemicals, causing profits to fall or:
2- Get passed onto to end users (us) causing consumer prices to rise

We have been told repeatedly that inflation will not be a problem. Yet, we are beginning to see anecdotal evidence that it is brewing. Admittedly these are not widespread price increases but they are price increases that effect scores of industries.

It bears very close watching….

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long Dow

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Six Flags “Inherited” Problem

Six Flags (SIXF) CEO Mark Shaprio is at it again. He issued a letter to employees and in it was, for me, a startling paragraph.

The letter is below but there is one paragraph you really have to read:

Unfortunately, however, as you know, we inherited an unsustainable $2.4 billion debt load from the previous management team. To put it into context, even if you have a record year and make approximately $275 million as we did last year, when you have to pay out approximately $175 million in interest expense on your debt and $100MM in park improvements to maintain and keep up with the business, that’s a balancing act you just can’t risk year in and year out. Furthermore, we have over $400 million of debt coming due within the next 12 months that cannot be refinanced in these financial markets.

Let’s look at it. Shapiro is saying that he “inherited” the current situation (that seems to be the excuse of the moment recently?). But, he didn’t. Daniel Snyder waged a proxy contest in 2005 against the management team at Six Flags. He was successful at placing Shaprio in as the head of the company. Shapiro and his team sought out the situation they are currently in, they did not “inherit” it.

Proof?

In 2005 Snyder, when he proposed Shaprio and himself be named to the board at Six Flags said in an SEC filing:

Although we believe the entire Board should be held accountable to stockholders and removed for the Company’s underperformance, we are seeking only a non-majority position on the Board due to the approximately $2.6 billion in poison debt and preferred stock (collectively, the “poison debt”) the Company has put in place over the years. The Company’s approximately $2.6 billion in “poison debt” permits the holders of such securities to either accelerate the outstanding amounts or require the Company to offer to repurchase the securities if we (or any other party) were to obtain a majority position on the Board. For this reason, if elected, our Nominees will not be able to cause the Board to take (or not take) any specific actions, but we are confident that our Nominees will use their best efforts to influence the Board and management and bring about changes that in their judgment are in the best interests of all Six Flags’ stockholders.

We believe that with the right management team in place, Six Flags can implement measures to increase revenue and decrease expenses, eventually outperform its peers in the amusement, recreation and leisure industry and maximize stockholder value. Therefore, on or about the time we file our definitive consent solicitation statement with the SEC, we plan to commence a fully funded cash tender offer (the “Offer”) to purchase up to 34.9% of the Company’s outstanding Shares (the calculation of such percentage to include any Shares we own at the time we accept Shares for purchase pursuant to the Offer) at a price of $6.50 per share. The Offer will be on the terms and subject to the conditions to be set forth in an offer to purchase and related letter of transmittal which we plan to file with the SEC at the commencement of the Offer.

Six Flags answered Snyder by saying:

Red Zone contends that the Company’s strategies must be completely overhauled. Yet, the evidence, in our judgement, shows that our plan is working. Starting in late 2003, the Company launched a series of initiatives to improve performance, including targeted capital expenditures, improved guest services and the aggressive launch of a new advertising program. Early results of the turnaround include significant increases in attendance, per capita spending and cash flow. The Company recently reported that year-to-date revenues through August 1 of this year were 9.8% higher than in the comparable period of the prior year, on an attendance increase of 6.3%. This compares to a 1.8% decrease in revenues in the comparable 2004 period over the prior year and an attendance decrease of 4.2%.

If any of that reasoning sounds familiar, it should. It is the same lame attempt at painting a rosy picture for a money losing operation Shaprio has been using every quarter since he assumed control. Read the letter below, it is there…

Also from the “other guys playbook”. Snyder in his letters chiding previous management said they “cannot continue to blame bad weather for poor results”. Yet, in 2007, Shaprio rolled out he very same excuse.

Let’s just say Shapiro inherited nothing, he got exactly what he and Snyder wanted. It should be noted here that over he last two years, current management added net $240 million of debt onto the company’s exhisting debt load.

Now, am I defending prior management? No. Six flags has been doomed for years and the above paragraph in Shaprio’s letter seems to admit it . The letter is stunning in that it openly admits even in a record year, Six Flags will be a money loser. In his haste to blame previous management, he in effect lays a question mark on anything he has said about “increasing shareholder value” in the past.

Daniel Snyder is on record saying Shapiro and his team’s performance “exceeded expectations”. Well, if a record year that exceed expectations resulted in a loss and an admission that the situation was unsustainable, then how did they ever really expect to turn a profit?

When all is said and done, despite all the rhetoric, Six Flags performance has gone nowhere. In 2005 the company had operating income of $129 million on revenues of $956 million and debt of $2.24 billion and lost $1.17 a share. In 2008, the company made $143 million from operations on $1.02 billion in revenues while carrying $2.36 billion in debt and losing $1.11 a share. Flat-lined….

Shaprio & Co. did increased liabilities by $600 million while decreasing assets by $400 million and increasing share count by 4 million. If you are wondering, none of these are good. Want more? Cash from operations, $120 million in 2005, fell to $66 million in 2008. In 2005 the company repaid $46 million of debt while in 2008 it added $275 million. Again, both of these bad…

I think in retrospect one would have a hard time arguing that an unfettered buyout process proposed in 2005 by pre-Snyder management, at the near height of the Private Equity buying bonanza may just have resulted in shareholders getting a far better deal when all was said and done…

Six Flags Letter to Employees


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Monday’s Links

California, Letterman, Inspector General, FOB

– Not for nothing, BUT, why do states have AG offices if they use contingency fee attorney’s?

– As a father of a daughter, Dave needs a good old fashioned ass kicking…Shame on Matt Laure for defending him. Just when I thought I could not have less respect for the guy….he stoops even lower.

– This will be ignored unless the guy goes public but this scary stuff. Think any other IG is going to look at FOB (friends of Obama) if they think they can get fired?

– This article nails it. The MSM is asleep at the wheel here. They can’t stop these actions but ignoring them is just sad…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Six Flags Mercifully Reaches its Inevitable Conclusion

Six Flags (SIX) CEO Mark Shaprio is the kind of guy who could urinate on you and tell you with smile he is “rinsing some dust off you”.

From the NY Times:

The amusement park company Six Flags is seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, saying it needs to reorganize and shed $1.8 billion of debt.

Mark Shapiro, the New York-based company’s chief executive officer, says the move won’t affect the operation of its 20 theme parks in the U.S., Mexico and Canada.

Six Flags says it actually had a great year in 2008. It saw 25 million visitors and posted record revenues. But executives are trying to lighten a $2.4 billion debt load that they say is unsustainable.

Saturday’s bankruptcy filing came after an earlier plan to negotiate an out-of-court deal with creditors failed.

Six Flags shares have traded below $1 since September. They closed at 26 cents on Friday.

A “great year”. Now while the $1.11 a share they lost last year is better than the $2.49 and $2.43 they lost the previous two years, I think only the pathologically incompetent would call it “a great year”. For those of you wondering, since Daniel Snyder took over the company, they never made a dime…..or a penny.

Here is a brief review of some thoughts on Six Flags here from the past:
It is an interesting timeline of events as I go back through the old posts. You can see some them in order here, here, here, here and finally here.

Just recently in March I wrote:

Now, the story of Six Flags is not one of a bad economy, although it is certainly a factor. The main story is a poorly run operation saddled with far too much debt and a lousy consumer experience.

Teenagers love the place, just ask any of them. It is designed for them from the rides to the entertainment to the layout. But, teenagers are not where the money is. It is families that are. Six Flags is quite possibly the least family friendly place I have ever been too. That is their downfall.

Since my boys were born we have done Disney (DIS), Hershey Park (HSY), Sesame Place, Canobie Lake (NH), Storyland (NH) and Santa’s Village (NH). All were incalculably better experiences than Six Flags. Talking to other folks, this is not an uncommon experience.

Six Flags will go under, of that there has never been a doubt, I wish the next owners better luck. They have great properties, they just need better people to run them.

The bankruptcy filing will wipe out the ownership stake of Washington Redskins owner Daniel Snyder, who took control of Six Flags in a public and contentious proxy fight in late 2005 and brought in his own management team who have finished the company off.

“Stockholders would have been better off hiding their money under a mattress” than investing in the company under the prior management, Mr. Snyder wrote in a letter to Six Flag shareholders in October 2005, during the proxy battle. At the time, Six Flags shares were trading at about $7.25, today they are worthless.

There is nothing left here for shareholder, they are done. Debtholders will assume the company and the only thing left to decide is whether to break it up, sell it, or make a go off it.

Don’t get me wrong, I like trying to enjoy myself with my <6 yr. old children while avoiding the cursing and smoking teenage mobs who run rampant in the park as much as the next guy, but I think it tends to put a damper on most folks day.

Whatever the new owners decide to do, who ever picks up the pieces and tries to make a go of it, I have one word for them …..FAMILY…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Sunday Humor

Not safe for work, wives, moms or kids…This is hysterical though….


Disclosure (“none” means no position):

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Saturday Humor


Obama Drastically Scales Back Goals For America After Visiting Denny’s


Disclosure (“none” means no position):