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A Reader Response to My Pessimism

In the interest of fairness, my optimistic reader friend has sent me this. Since he make his points extremely intelligently without saying “your an idiot” for thinking different, and because of his position in the investing world, for the benefit of readers I am obliged to post his thoughts. I hope this elicits conversation on the merits of either argument. I am reprinting verbatim, there is no editing of his comments on my part.

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Todd,

I am not as pessimistic as the current interest in gold as a harbor of safety. The hosts of historical precursors to market improvement are overwhelming. The fact that no one believes them at this time is typical of a market bottoming process. Positive economic change has never been accepted by investors until it has been on a clearly defined trend for some period. This is why “Value” investors hold such status in our society for being able to see through the “fog of fear” and still make successful investments.

I can say that this is a time to be very bullish, but no one wants to listen. At the moment those who are gleeful of the values they see at present are often treated negatively in the press as Buffett has recently because his investment activity and positive commentary has not relieved investor pain with an obvious market turn for the better quickly enough to satisfy the need for instant gratification.

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Both of these indicators are viewed as reflecting the investment behavior of individuals who are thought to have an above average sense of investment valuation. These indicators are believed to reflect both that future changes in the business climate are perceived to be positive and that the current levels of business valuations are attractive. In essence these indicators are believed to measure the value perceptions of individuals who are better informed than the average investor.

It is important to point out that neither tops nor bottoms are indicated precisely, nor can this information be used with precision at the individual security level. However, even without the desired precision, I view these indices as very useful in supporting a contrarian approach.

Currently, the readings from these indices remain quite bullish and are typical of the market being in a bottom formation period.

Don Hays describes the Smart Money Index as:
“This is an index that is prefaced upon the principal that the trading during the first 30 minutes of each day is very emotionally based, and depends so much upon the fresh “hype” of the morning news and media “talk.” That is considered “dumb” money. But the trading in the last one-hour of trading is not very news motivated at all, in fact it is based solely upon the overall reasoned out logic and analysis. That is considered “smart” money. So the cumulative index simply subtracts the performance of the Dow during that first 30 minutes, and adds the performance of the last one-hour. The signals come when the “Smart Money” index does not confirm the new highs or lows of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s.”

The Gambill Insider Buy/sell Ratio (below the Smart Money Index) is a simple moving avg of insider buys/insider sells of the Russell 3000.




He finishes with the following quotes:

Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful”

Bruce Berkowitz,”Ignore the crowd!”

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A Classic Exampe of "Putting Lipstick on A Pig"

I had to read this four times to be sure I wasn’t crazy (I may be.but not because I read this wrong).

Wall St. Newsletters

Here it is:

Even with a down economy in 2008, United States railroad volumes for the year were the fourth highest on record behind 2005, 2006, and 2007, according to data released by the Association of American Railroads (AAR).

OR could be have just as accurately said “rail volumes were the lowest in 4 years”?

Here is the rest of the article:

The AAR said U.S. freight railroads originated 16,752,709 carloads in 2008, representing a 2.2 percent—or 380,805 carloads—decline from 2007. Intermodal loadings at 11,517,240 trailers and containers were down 4.2 percent—or 509,391 units—for the year. And combined U.S. carload and intermodal units for the year were 28.09 million.
And estimated ton-miles for 2008 came in at 1,728.7 billion, a 1.3 percent drop off from 2007.
Yearly totals would have been stronger had economic volume tailed off at such a hectic clip during the fourth quarter of 2008.

“During the first nine months of the year, there were some real strong spots with certain commodities like grain, and coal which was strong all year,” said AAR Director of Editorial Services Tom White in an interview earlier today. “There were a few areas that helped make up for those that were down [like autos and housing-related commodities]. As we got into the fourth quarter, particularly in November and December, things really began to deteriorate more so than earlier in the year.”

Commodity breakdown: Motor vehicles and equipment loadings were down 219, 603—or 21.2 percent—at 817,744 for the year. And crushed stone, sand, and gravel loadings were down 95,270—or 8.8 percent. Only grain, metallic ores, coal, and “all other” carloads saw annual increases, according to the AAR.

When asked about the railroad industry’s overall health at a time when the economy is sluggish, White noted that 2007 was the industry’s best year in history in terms of revenue, and earnings, coupled with the first three quarters of 2008 being fairly strong.

“The railroad industry is much better positioned to take the negative impacts of a deep recession than it ever was in the past 50 years,” said White. “That is because over the past number of years railroads have been able to invest a great deal of money into infrastructure [and other efficiencies] and things that strengthen the industry long-term. That is all very positive, as well as the fact that balance sheets headed into the recession were very strong. This speaks well to the railroad industry’s ability to weather the recession and be in a strong position once the economy does really turn around.”

So, we now know business for rail shippers like CSX (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Burlington Northern (BNI) is dropping, hard.

When one also adds that International Air Freight fell 22% in December we would not expect any improvement anytime soon. Air freight matter because in order to get goods to or from the airport, rails are used heavily.

This is bad news for rails (and the economy as a whole), there is no sugar coating it no matter how bad the AAR wants to try..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Hedge Fund to Measure Returns in Gold …NOT Currency

This is a pretty stunning move. What is even more alarming is the reasoning given.

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From the FT:

A hedge fund has begun offering investors the chance to have their investment denominated in gold, as worries grow over governments debasing their currencies by printing money.

Osmium Capital Management, a $178m hedge fund manager based in Bermuda, is launching a new share class allowing investors to hold shares measured as troy ounces of the fund, rather than US dollars, sterling or euros.

The move follows a surge in investor demand for small gold (GLD) bars and coins held by individuals and gold-backed exchange-traded funds that are holding a record amount of bullion.

Chris Kuchanny, Osmium chief executive and a former London ABN Amro trader, said he was putting almost all his personal wealth into the new share class: “Investors have voiced concerns that they’re overly exposed to the major fiat [paper] currencies in an environment where the fundamentals of those currencies are clearly deteriorating with governments assuming more debt and having lower revenue and more expenditure

This shows a stunning lack of confidence in currencies. It also says that the fund is anticipating inflation to rear its ugly head in a scary way. When it does, the value of the currencies will plummet and gold will rise.

What is to watch now is whether or not other funds begin to follow. If this becomes a movement rather than an individual act, the crash in currencies could be expedited in a nasty way.

Stay tuned…

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None in gold…..yet

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Friday’s Links

Press, Press, Press, Buffett

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– Too hard on Obama

– Too easy on Obama

– “Even the Seagulls were in awe

– Kass, as always make some valid points
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Wachovia on Gold & Housing $$

Video via Wall St. Media

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Some very interesting thoughts from Wachovia’s Rich Gordon on Gold (GLD) and housing

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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AutoNation Reports Powerful Quarter $$

Considering the credit markets and the economy, this earnings report from AutoNation (AN) is simply fantastic.

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AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE: AN) , America’s largest automotive retailer, today reported 2008 fourth quarter net income from continuing operations of $70 million, or $0.40 per share, compared to $51 million, or $0.28 per share, in the prior year. In the quarter, the Company had a net benefit from certain items of $48 million or $0.28 per share, including a net positive tax adjustment of $0.18 per share and a gain on the repurchase of the Company’s senior notes of $0.14 per share. Additionally, other items had an unfavorable impact of $0.04 per share. After adjusting for these items as disclosed in the attached financial tables, net income from continuing operations for the 2008 fourth quarter was $22 million or $0.12 per share.

Fourth quarter 2008 revenue totaled $2.7 billion, compared to $4.1 billion in the year-ago period, driven primarily by lower vehicle sales. In the fourth quarter, total U.S. industry new vehicle retail unit sales declined 49%, based on CNW Research data. In comparison, in the fourth quarter AutoNation’s new vehicle unit sales declined 40%.

Commenting on the fourth quarter, Mike Jackson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said, “The fourth quarter was negatively impacted by the credit panic triggered on September 15 by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Automotive retail sales collapsed from one day to the next as credit for our customers was withdrawn from the market. This panic continued to erode consumer confidence and accelerated the decline in the U.S. economy and auto retail market. In the fourth quarter, AutoNation continued to remain profitable even with a U.S. SAAR near 10 million new vehicle units, a 27 year low.” Jackson also stated, “When we saw the auto retail market deteriorate in the beginning of 2008, AutoNation began to identify cost reduction opportunities. In July we announced our plan to reduce cost by $100 million on an annual run rate basis and have successfully achieved this goal – a significant accomplishment in its own right. With the collapse of sales in the second half of September, additional actions became necessary in the fourth quarter to further reduce costs. We have successfully implemented additional cost reduction actions totaling approximately $100 million on an annualized run rate basis. Taken together, AutoNation’s total annualized cost savings of $200 million demonstrates our Company’s ability to effectively address the challenges created by the credit panic.”

Jackson added, “Despite the severely depressed sales environment, AutoNation continues to generate solid cash flow which allowed the Company to reduce its non-vehicle debt by $155 million during the quarter and close the fourth quarter with a strong cash position of $110 million. Full-year debt reduction totals approximately three-quarters of a billion dollars, consisting of $517 million of non-vehicle debt and $195 million of vehicle floor plan debt. As a result, the Company remained in compliance with all financial covenants in its debt agreements as of December 31, 2008 with a leverage ratio of 2.45 versus 2.78 a year ago.”

Looking forward, Jackson also stated, “We agree with industry projections that the 2009 SAAR will be in the range of 11 million new vehicle units with obvious weakness in the first half of the year. In this environment, we believe we will be able to manage within all financial covenants.”

AutoNation provides additional detail on its three operating segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury. The Domestic segment is comprised of stores that sell vehicles manufactured by General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler; the Import segment is comprised of stores that sell vehicles manufactured primarily by Toyota, Honda, and Nissan; and the Premium Luxury segment is comprised of stores that sell vehicles manufactured primarily by Mercedes, BMW, and Lexus.

Segment Results for the Quarter

— Domestic -Domestic segment income (1) was $14 million compared to year-ago segment income of $36 million. Fourth quarter Domestic retail new vehicle unit sales declined 44%. In comparison, U.S. industry Domestic retail new vehicle unit sales declined 52% according to CNW Research.

— Import -Import segment income was $20 million compared to year-ago segment income of $52 million. Fourth quarter Import retail new vehicle unit sales declined 39%. In comparison, U.S. industry Import new vehicle retail unit sales declined 44% according to CNW Research.

— Premium Luxury -Premium Luxury segment income was $39 million compared to year-ago segment income of $59 million. Fourth quarter Premium Luxury retail new vehicle unit sales declined 35%. In comparison, U.S. industry Premium Luxury retail new vehicle unit sales declined 34% according to CNW Research.

(1) Segment income is defined as operating income less floor plan interest expense

For the full year ended December 31, 2008, the Company reported net loss from continuing operations of $1.23 billion or $6.89 per share, compared to net income from continuing operations of $289 million or $1.44 per share in the prior year. After adjusting for the impairment charges and certain other items as disclosed in the attached financial tables, net income from continuing operations for the full year ended December 31, 2008 was $181 million or $1.02 per share, compared to $277 million or $1.38 per share in the prior year. The Company’s revenue for the year ended December 31, 2008 totaled $14.1 billion, down 19% compared to $17.3 billion in the prior year.

So, we are in the 10,000 years flood and the company is still making money. Competitors are closing their doors at a breakneck pace. The company is cash flow positive and paying off debt. AutoNation is going to emerge from this stronger than ever and in a far more dominant market position.

Shareholders ought to be thrilled…

Speaking of shareholders, AutoNation also signed an agreement with Eddie Lampert and ESL Investments. Read it here

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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ESL and Lampert Sign Voting Agreement with AutoNation, Toyota and Honda $$

Lampert currently owns 45% of AutoNation (AN)

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First, here is the agreement with Honda (HMC) regarding the ESL voting agreement.

American Honda Motor Co., Inc.
1919 Torrance Boulevard
Torrance, CA 90501
Attention: Dealer Development
RE: AutoNation, Inc. Framework Agreement
Dear Mr. Colliver:
Reference is made to that certain Framework Agreement, dated as of June 9, 1998 and as amended from time to time (the “Framework Agreement”), by and between American Honda Motor Co., Inc. (“American Honda”) and AutoNation, Inc. (formerly known as Republic Industries, Inc.) (“AutoNation”).
American Honda hereby consents to the acquisition by ESL Investments, Inc. and any person, entity or group that directly, or indirectly though one or more intermediaries, controls, or is controlled by, or is under common control with, ESL Investments, Inc. (for the avoidance of doubt, other than AutoNation and its subsidiaries) (collectively, the “ESL Parties”) of fifty percent (50%) or more of the outstanding common stock, par value $0.01 per share, of AutoNation (the “Common Stock”) (the “Acquisition”), upon the following terms and conditions which shall only apply at such time and for so long as the ESL Parties own fifty percent (50%) or more of the then outstanding Common Stock:
1. At each meeting of the stockholders of AutoNation, whether an annual meeting or a special meeting, however called, and at each adjournment or postponement of any such meeting (a “Stockholders’ Meeting”), and in all other circumstances in which a vote, consent or other approval (including, without limitation, by written consent) is sought by or from the stockholders of AutoNation (any such vote, consent or approval, a “Stockholders’ Consent”), the ESL Parties shall appear at such Stockholders’ Meeting or otherwise cause all shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Parties to be counted as present for the purpose of establishing a quorum.
At each Stockholders’ Meeting and in connection with the execution of each Stockholders’ Consent, in either case at such times that the ESL Parties own in excess of fifty percent (50%) of the then outstanding Common Stock, all shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Parties in excess of fifty percent (50%) of the then outstanding Common Stock on the applicable record date (the “Additional Shares”) shall be voted on each matter proposed in the same proportion as all outstanding shares of Common Stock not owned by the ESL Parties are actually voted on such matter (it being understood that, in connection with any Stockholders’ Consent, shares of Common Stock not owned by the ESL Parties that abstain or are not present will be treated as shares abstaining or not present, as the case may be).

2. AutoNation shall use best efforts to provide that its board of directors shall be comprised of a majority of directors who qualify as “independent” directors under the listing standards of Rule 303A.02(b) of The New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) Listed Company Manual, as in effect on the date hereof, and who would qualify as “independent” directors of ESL Investments, Inc. under the listing standards of Rule 303A.02(b) of the NYSE Listed Company Manual, as in effect on the date hereof, if ESL Investments, Inc. was an NYSE-listed company; provided, however, that if AutoNation should fail to comply with the foregoing requirement due to (i) a vacancy on its board of directors or (ii) a member of its board of directors ceasing to meet such independence standards due to circumstances beyond AutoNation’s reasonable control, AutoNation shall regain compliance with the foregoing requirement by the later of (A) its next annual stockholders’ meeting or (B) 180 days from the occurrence of the event that caused the failure to comply.

3. The parties hereto agree to the following:
(a) No ESL Party shall knowingly acquire any direct or indirect ownership interest in any Honda or Acura dealership except through or in conjunction with AutoNation (which acquisition will be subject to the Framework Agreement), provided that the ESL Parties may make or acquire passive investments in public companies, mutual funds and similar entities where such investments by the ESL Parties represent cumulative less than five percent (5%) interest in any Honda or Acura dealership in which such entity is so invested. For purposes of this Section 3(a), any acquisition of a direct or indirect ownership interest in any Honda or Acura dealership by Edward S. Lampert or any person who is in the Immediate Family (as such term is defined in the American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Policy on the Ownership of Multiple Honda and Acura Dealerships) of Edward S. Lampert shall be attributable to the ESL Parties.
(b) The ESL Parties, AutoNation and American Honda agree that any dispute arising under this letter agreement shall be resolved by the dispute resolution procedures set forth in Section 8 of the Framework Agreement.

(c) The ESL Parties acknowledge and agree to abide by the limits on representation of AutoNation on any Honda and Acura Dealer organizations as set forth in Section 3 of the Framework Agreement.

(d) The terms of this letter agreement shall be governed by and construed according to the laws of the State of New York without applying is conflicts of law principles.

(e) The ESL Parties may not pledge or grant a security interest in the Common Stock owned by the ESL Parties except as provided in the following sentence or with the consent of American Honda in accordance with the “American Honda Motor Co., Inc. Policy on the Granting of Security Interest in the Shares of Any Entity That Owns an Interest in a Honda or Acura Dealership,” a copy of which is attached as Exhibit A hereto. American Honda hereby agrees that the ESL Parties may grant a security interest in the proceeds of the sale of the shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Parties, provided that the grantee agrees as follows:
(i) that it will never attempt to vote such shares (except to approve an American Honda-approved transfer of such shares) or exercise managerial control over any Listed Dealership; and

(ii) that its interest in such shares shall be limited to the proceeds derived from the sale of such shares to the extent of the outstanding balance of the note secured by such shares.
(f) The ESL Parties agree to abide by the remedies set forth in the Framework Agreement and, with respect to any ownership interest they may have in a Listed Dealership that becomes subject to any such remedies, they will cooperate in the execution of such remedies (for example, the purchase of a Listed Dealership by American Honda as ordered by an arbitrator) and not oppose any such remedy except as part of AutoNation’s participation in arbitration pursuant to Section 8 of the Framework Agreement.

(g) The ESL Parties shall be jointly and severally responsible for compliance by each ESL Party with the provisions of Section 3 of this letter agreement.

(h) The ESL Parties that currently own Common Stock are listed on Exhibit B hereto.
4. AutoNation and American Honda hereby reaffirm the terms and conditions of the Framework Agreement, which they agree shall continue in existence without modification. This letter agreement (a) may not be amended, waived or modified except by an instrument in writing signed by American Honda, AutoNation and the ESL Parties and (b) may be executed in one or more counterparts, each of which when executed shall be deemed to be an original but which when taken together shall constitute one and the same letter agreement.

5. In light of the consent given pursuant to this letter agreement and in consideration of the continuing adherence of AutoNation and the ESL Parties to the terms hereof, American Honda will not exercise any rights pursuant to Section 1.3.5 and/or Section 7 of the Framework Agreement that it might otherwise have as a result of the Acquisition. Nothing in this letter agreement shall be construed as consent to a “Rule 13e-3 transaction” as that term is defined in Rule 13e-3 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

6. All communications and notices pursuant to this letter agreement shall be in writing and be given in person or by means of facsimile or other means of wire transmission, by overnight courier or by mail and shall be addressed as follows:

If to American Honda:
American Honda Motor Co., Inc.
Honda Division
1919 Torrance Boulevard
Torrance, CA 90501
Attention: Dealer Development
Facsimile: (310) 222-7065

with a copy to:
Associate General Counsel
Honda North America, Inc.
Law Department
700 Van Ness Avenue
Torrance, CA 90509-2206
Facsimile: (310) 781-4970

If to AutoNation:
AutoNation, Inc.
110 S.E. 6th St.
Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301
Attention: President
Facsimile: (954) 769-4666

with a copy to:
AutoNation, Inc.
110 S.E. 6th St.
Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301
Attention: General Counsel
Facsimile: (954) 769-6340

If to the ESL Parties:
ESL Investments, Inc
200 Greenwich Avenue
Greenwich, CT 06830
Attention: William C. Crowley
Facsimile: 203-861-9834

Read the letter to Toyota (TM)

ESL Voting Agreement

ESL Investments, Inc
200 Greenwich Avenue
Greenwich, CT 06830
Attention: William C. Crowley
RE: ESL Voting Agreement
Dear Mr. Crowley:
Reference is made to that certain letter agreement, dated as of the date hereof (the “Honda Consent”), among American Honda Motor Co., Inc. (“American Honda”), AutoNation, Inc. (“AutoNation”) and the ESL Parties (as defined in the Honda Consent) and to that certain letter agreement, dated as of the date hereof (the “Toyota Consent”), among Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc. (“Toyota”), AutoNation and ESL (as defined in the Toyota Consent).
For the period provided in Section 3 below, notwithstanding any provision to the contrary contained in the Honda Consent and Toyota Consent and at such time as ESL Investments, Inc. and any person, entity or group that directly, or indirectly through one or more intermediaries, controls, or is controlled by, or is under common control with, ESL Investments, Inc. (for the avoidance of doubt, other than AutoNation and its subsidiaries) (together with ESL Investments, Inc., the “ESL Affiliated Parties”) own forty-five percent (45%) or more of the outstanding common stock, par value $0.01 per share, of AutoNation (the “Common Stock”):
1. At each meeting of the stockholders of AutoNation, whether an annual meeting or a special meeting, however called, and at each adjournment or postponement of any such meeting (a “Stockholders’ Meeting”), and in all other circumstances in which a vote, consent or other approval (including, without limitation, by written consent) is sought by or from the stockholders of AutoNation (any such vote, consent or approval, a “Stockholders’ Consent”), the ESL Affiliated Parties shall appear at such Stockholders’ Meeting or otherwise cause all shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Affiliated Parties to be counted as present for the purpose of establishing a quorum.
2. At each Stockholders’ Meeting and in connection with the execution of each Stockholders’ Consent, all shares of Common Stock owned by the ESL Affiliated Parties in excess of forty-five percent (45%) of the then outstanding Common Stock on the applicable record date (the “Additional Shares”) shall be voted on each matter proposed in the same proportion as all outstanding shares of Common Stock not owned by the ESL Affiliated Parties are actually voted on such matter (it being understood that, in connection with any Stockholders’ Consent, shares of Common Stock not owned by the ESL Affiliated Parties that abstain or are not present will be treated as shares abstaining or not present, as the case may be).

3. This letter agreement shall commence as of the date first set forth above and shall continue in full force and effect until January 28, 2010 unless the parties mutually agree to extend the agreement. The termination of this letter agreement shall have no effect on the Honda Consent or the Toyota Consent.
The terms of this letter agreement shall be governed by and construed according to the laws of the State of Delaware without applying its conflicts of law principles.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long AN

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David Einhorn: "Bernanke is an inflationist"

Because of the Fed’s actions, Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn is buying gold (GLD)

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From his recent letter:

This jives with what I have been saying here. Point to note, these swings are usually long term trends. Be patient. The macro-events that will cause gold to rise will take a while to unfold. just tuck it away..

Remember Allied Capital (ALD), the target of Einhorn’s Book “Fool some of The People”? Allied may just default ot was announced yesterday.

Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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Thursday’s Links

What?!?, Defaults, Deflation, Schiff,

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– Proof that no business idea is really that crazy

– Just keep rising

– If you hated Act 1, Act 2 ought to really scare you

– ‘Bout time more folks are figuring this out
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David Einhorn’s Q4 Letter

Einhorn had a rough year but the letter is a very honest one, not filled the usual BS some through to excuse away performance..

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Visit MarketFolly to download the letter

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Fed Decision and a Desperate Statement $$

So, it is official, the Fed is out of bullets and is throwing stones.

Wall St. Newsletters

The decision:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.

In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable economic slack, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee’s policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet at a high level. The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets. The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.

OK, so what does it all mean? The Fed is limited to what it can do and has resigned itself to sitting back and waiting things out. Lower rates (essentially zero) have not spurred lending or much economic activity and they are possibly about to purchase to worst assets on bank’s books. The Fed now has a 2 trillion dollar balance sheet and that looks to grow. Now, growing it with quality assets is one thing, but to grow it now with banks junk, well, that isn’t good.

The big banks, JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citi (C) has received their TARP funds and will most likely not want more. This means the strings Congress want to impose on them to force lending will be toothless.

So now the Fed is forced to buy Treasuries to expand the money supply. What they will do then is add to the bubble already existing in them. The collapse of that bubble will cause interest rates to spike (that’s really bad in a recession). Since the Fed is already essentially at zero, it can do nothing to stop the rise, except, buy huge amounts of Treasuries and maintain the bubble itself.

See where this goes? The Treasury will issue bills the Fed will buy while the Fed is buying the toxic assets on banks books…….yeah….this will end well, no problem..

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long WFC, nonw

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Bolling on Oil and Natural Gas

Some very interesting information on natural gas (UNG) use and the weather this winter.

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):None

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American Recovery and Investment Act

As of 1/20/2009. To fully understand what a disaster this will be , go to page 12 line 6. It is clear the protectionist trade policy failures of the Great Depression have not been learned. The video is the Senate “Mark -Up” of the bill.

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American Recovery and Investment Act

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Government Business & Legal american recovery an Barack Obama

Senate “Mark-Up”

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Linens N’ Things Not Gone Forever

This will probably go down as a brilliant buy down the road.

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From peHUB

Linens ‘n Things, the home goods retailer which shut its doors late last year, may live on as a brand name after two investment groups agreed to purchase the retailer’s name and logos for about $1 million.

At a bankruptcy auction earlier this month, Hilco Consumer Capital and Gordon Brothers Brands, won the rights to the company’s intellectual property, including software, technology and marketing material, according to a Hilco spokesman. The deal was expected to close on Monday, the spokesman said.

Hilco Merchant Services and Gordon Brothers Retail Partners were members of a group of six liquidators that ran the going-out-of business sales at the home goods retailer last year.

Hoping to cash in on consumer attachment to forlorn brands, in the past few years liquidator groups have bought up trademarks of bankrupt companies like gadget seller The Sharper Image, and furniture retailer Bombay Co.

Since Hilco bought The Sharper Image brand at a bankruptcy auction in May, it has signed licensing deals for heated blankets, iPod cases and health gadgets — all of which are sold emblazoned with The Sharper Image logo.

Linens ‘n Things, once the no. 2 U.S. home goods chain after Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) was bought out for $1.3 billion by Leon Black’s buyout firm Apollo Management in 2006.

The company filed for bankruptcy protection in May, citing a drop in consumer spending. It had operated 589 stores in North America at the end of 2007, but liquidated late last year after it was unable to find a buyer.

Linens went under not because they had no customers, but because when the economy slowed, they could not get enough to service the crushing debt load. Had they never been bought out, one could argue, and probably be accurate in saying they would still be around.

The buyers have a respected and liked name and a whole bunch of real cheap real estate out there owned by desperate landlords……a nice combination..
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