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Pershing Square Files 13D/A In Borders Group $$

The good news for shareholders is that Ackman is in this thing (Borders (BGP))for the long haul…

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From the filing:
As of January 16, 2009, as reflected in this Amendment No. 9, the Reporting Persons are reporting beneficial ownership on an aggregate basis of 25,297,880 shares of Common Stock (approximately 33.62% of the outstanding shares). This includes warrants covering 14,700,000 shares of Common Stock, which represents 9,550,000 warrants received on April 9, 2008 and 5,150,000 warrants received on October 1, 2008 (each, as previously disclosed). The Reporting Persons own cash settled, total return equity swaps covering 4,805,463 notional shares of Common Stock (as previously disclosed). The notional shares that underlie such swaps are not included in the totals set forth in the charts earlier in the Schedule 13D. The aggregate economic exposure of the Reporting Persons to shares of Common Stock, including the aggregate shares of Common Stock beneficially owned by the Reporting Persons plus the aggregate notional shares underlying such swaps, represents approximately 40% of the sum of the outstanding shares of Common Stock and the shares of Common Stock underlying such warrants.

Item 4. Purpose of Transaction

Item 4 is hereby supplemented, as follows:
On December 22, 2008, Pershing Square, certain of its affiliates and the Issuer entered into an agreement (the “First Amendment to the Senior Secured Credit Agreement”) to extend the deadline for repayment of the $42,500,000 senior secured term loan owed under the Credit Agreement by the Issuer to Pershing Square, from January 15, 2009 to February 16, 2009.

On December 22, 2008, Pershing Square and the Issuer entered into an agreement (the “Extension of Purchase Offer”) to extend Pershing Square’s backstop purchase offer on behalf of certain funds managed by Pershing Square, set forth in the Purchase Offer Letter, from January 15, 2009 to February 16, 2009. On January 16, 2009, Pershing Square and the Issuer further agreed to amend the Purchase Offer Letter (the “Amendment of Purchase Offer”), such that at the election of the Issuer and subject to certain terms and conditions, certain funds managed by Pershing Square will be obligated to purchase all, but not less than all, of the issued and outstanding capital stock of Paperchase Products Ltd. and its subsidiaries (together, “Paperchase”). In advance of the acquisition of Paperchase, the Issuer (or certain of its affiliates) will either acquire any issued and outstanding capital stock of Paperchase currently not owned by the Issuer (or certain of its affiliates), or cause any third party holders that own capital stock of Paperchase to become parties to the stock purchase agreement for the sale of Paperchase to certain funds managed by Pershing Square. Pursuant to the terms of the Purchase Offer Letter, as amended by the Amendment of Purchase Offer, funds managed by Pershing Square are no longer obligated to purchase the Issuer’s approximately 17% interest in Bookshop Acquisitions, Inc. The Purchase Offer Letter remains subject to its original terms and conditions, except as expressly amended or modified by the Amendment of Purchase Offer.

The foregoing summary of the First Amendment to the Senior Secured Credit Agreement, the Extension of Purchase Offer, the Amendment of Purchase Offer and the transactions contemplated thereby is not complete and is subject in its entirety to the First Amendment to the Senior Secured Credit Agreement, the Extension of Purchase Offer and the Amendment of Purchase Offer, which are filed as Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3 hereto and are incorporated herein by reference.

The Reporting persons have been and continue to be in discussions with the Issuer regarding financing transactions, including the backstop purchase offer, set forth in the Purchase Offer Letter, as extended and amended pursuant to the Extension of Purchase Offer and the Amendment of Purchase Offer, and alternative commitments and transactions (collectively, “Financing Transactions”). Notwithstanding anything to the contrary in this Schedule 13D or otherwise, the Reporting Persons may cease these discussions at any time and can make no assurance that any Financing Transaction will be successfully negotiated and/or consummated.

FIRST AMENDMENT TO THE SENIOR SECURED CREDIT AGREEMENT

AMENDMENT OF PURCHASE OFFER

Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long BGP
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The Scariest Chart Ever $$

If this does not give you pause…nothing will…

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From East Coast Economics

Here is a chart of federal borrowing through Dec. 2007.

Now, same chart through December 2008.

Anyone still think thee are not some rough patches down the road?


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Circuit City: An Inexplicable Chart

Just looking at this chart, it mystifies the imagination how Circuit City (CC) ended up liquidating..

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Take a look…

How does a company that has 20% market share of internet traffic, NOT dominate its industry? How?

Former CEO Phil Schoonver should be imprisoned at Abu Grab, at the very least…

The harsher penalties ought to go to the Board that oversaw his willful shareholder obliteration.

I’m think the prison in “Midnight Express


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None…ever…. thank god…
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Harley Davidson Seeks Loan Guarantee’s from FDIC

This is just too much…

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Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D- Penn) has asked a federal agency to find Harley-Davidson (HOG) eligible for funds handed out under a federal bailout for financial institutions. In a Jan. 16 letter to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairman Sheila Blair, saying Harley-Davidson recently inquired whether its financing company and subsidiaries — Harley-Davidson Credit Corp. and Eaglemark Savings Bank — are eligible for the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, or TLGP.

“Without access to TLGP, Harley-Davidson may be forced to make tough decisions that will impact workers in Pennsylvania, jeopardize the local economy … and negatively impact the state economy,” Casey wrote in the letter. Casey said he wants to do everything possible to make sure Harley’s financial arm has access to help if it’s eligible.

He said the problem with the economy is related to credit, and Harley’s participation in the program would allow more people to get Harley loans to buy motorcycles. “Without the determination (of eligibility) made, it puts their financing company in a much more precarious situation,” he said.

In October, in an attempt to improve confidence in the banking sector and to improve liquidity for banks, the FDIC started the program to guarantee newly issued unsecured debt of qualifying institutions and guarantee certain noninterest-bearing accounts.

Guarantee debt: Harley spokesman Bob Klein said the program would guarantee unsecured corporate debt against default; Harley would only get federal funds if a customer defaulted on his or her motorcycle loan.

Klein said the TLGP is one of several options that Harley-Davidson’s financial arm is pursuing “to ensure continued funding of its lending activities” in a challenging economic environment. Lower consumer confidence has affected the motorcycle industry, he said.

The Wisconsin-based company told elected officials in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin about its plans to seek inclusion in the program, Klein said. The company appreciates Casey’s support, he said.

A recent dealer survey shows that year-over-year retail sales appear to have softened from the third quarter, when Harley-Davidson reported a 15.5 percent drop in U.S. retail sales. The company is expected to report fourth-quarter results Friday.

Now, this is government programs run amok. It is one thing to backstop the debt of the compnay to lower borrowing costs, but to backstop its customers? Insane…

Do we really expect corporations to increase lending standards in an effort to avoid another fiasco like we are going through when taxpayers are backing the loans they are making now? Do we really?

What’s next, guaranteeing the debt we use for dishwashers at Home Depot (HD) or Sears (SHLD)?

Disclosure (“none” means no position):
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Peak Oil Update…

There is a real interesting discussion about the recent oil (USO), (DBO), (DXO) price activity of the past year and governments reaction to it.

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I highly recommend the ASPO Newsletter

From the December 2008 Issue:

In years ahead, analysts may look back on the current crisis and identify its causes. They may conclude that oil demand had begun to outpace supply around 2005, when the production of Regular Conventional Oil passed its peak.

The shortfall was however relatively small and was partly met without undue difficulty by a modest reduction in demand. But as prices began to firm, oil traders and other speculative financial institutions began to take a position in the market, which had the effect of driving up the price. Gradually the process built momentum as huge notional profits were reaped from the appreciating asset. In a conventional market such movements would soon be countered by increased production, but in the case of oil, there was no spare capacity to release, and the speculative surge fed on itself leading to an extreme escalation in price which reached about $150 a barrel by July 2008.

However as this peak was approached, the traders began to conclude that a limit was close and began to buy future options at lower prices, which began to undermine the price in a self-fulfilling process. In parallel the high prices began to undermine many other aspects of the economy with for example airlines and motor manufacturers facing difficulties. They themselves relied heavily on debt, which itself was traded between banks without adequate genuine collateral, and were forced to unload their speculative oil positions in order to try to shore up their failing businesses. Gradually the whole edifice collapsed, and oil prices fell to around $50 a barrel, although nothing particular had changed in the actual supply/demand relationship. The flaw in the system was to treat a finite resource whose production was largely controlled by the immutable physics of the reservoir as if it were a normal commodity capable of responding to ordinary market pressures. If the price of potatoes increases, farmers can grow more and the market responds, but oil is different.

Governments responded to the crash by pouring yet more money, itself lacking genuine collateral, into the system in the mistaken belief that this would restore the position of assumed eternal growth, and quite possibly the stock market will respond positively as traders sense a new upward direction. They have no real interest in reality: their job being to try to reap rewards from short term movements. But if there is an economic recovery, that would serve to increase the demand for oil, which is in a sense the bloodstream of the modern world, and oil prices would again begin to surge. Probably, it will take several such vicious circles before governments and, more important, people at large at last come to grasp the reality of the situation, which will likely prompt radical changes in the human condition.

Here is the report:
Association for Peak Oil Dec. 2008 Newsletter

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Economics Research crude oil peak oil


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DXO
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Tuesday’s Links

$200 oil, Fingers, Landing

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– A convincing case

Weird

US Air flight



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Hyper-Inflation Survival Guide

This is interesting…

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Hyper Inflation Book

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Business eBooks Business-Economics inflation gold feder


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Marc Faber on Latest Round of Bailout in US & UK (video) $$

Interview from 1/19/2009

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Part: 1…. The shoe to drop in 2009 will be the doubt in investors eyes for governments to meet bulging obligations.

Part 2:….. Policy intervention will make current downturn longer..


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Buffett on Dateline (video) $$

Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Warren Buffett talk about his support for Barack Obama, the economy and what needs to be done..

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So, the first half of the interview was obviously written by the Obama Press Team and is little more than a “isn’t our guy great” puff piece, only missing Brokaw and Buffett hugging and kissing as tears of unbridled joy steam down their faces. The middle two minutes of it actually has some value in economic terms. For those only interested in that, go to 2:50 of the interview. The last minute is more of the first.

It is unfortunate though that Brokaw had Buffett on and all that was gleemed from the interview was a recitation of what we have been hearing about Obama and two minutes of the current economic climate..

An opportunity missed…


Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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The Future of Print Newspapers

Washington Post Media CEO Katharine Weymouth speaks with Aspen Institute President Walter Isaacson about the future of The Washington Post and the news industry. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is a majority shareholder of the Post.

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Disclosure (“none” means no position):None
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Monday’s Links

Bitches, Circuit City, Madoff, Leveraged ETF’s

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– I can’t stand these two…

– Liquidation agreement
Circuit City Liqudation Agreement

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Contracts Business & Legal bankruptcy circuit city

– SEC Complaint
SEC complaint against Bernard L (Bernie) Madoff

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Informational Other fraud bail

– Here is a list


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Wilbur Ross Gets His Bank

As he said he would…

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Privately held, clean bank and done in order to allow Wilbur to participate in the FDIC acions that are anticipated..

Bloomberg:

Fox Biz:


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More Oil Production Cuts

More evidence global oil production is being shuttered…..

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ConocoPhillips (COP), the third-largest U.S. oil company, said Friday it’s cutting 4 percent of its overall work force, reducing the number of contractors it works with, cutting capital spending by 18 percent and writing off $34 billion in noncash assets because of plummeting energy prices. These are the first announced job cuts by an oil major, about 1,300 in this case. ConocoPhillips said it has approved a capital spending program of $12.5 billion for 2009, down from the $15.3 billion it projected to spend in 2008.

Just last week, Schlumberger (SLB), the world’s largest oilfield services company, said it would eliminate up to 1,000 jobs in North America, or about 5 percent of its work force, and is looking at cuts elsewhere globally. Halliburton (HAL). also said it would begin laying off workers but didn’t say how many or when.

“We are positioning ourselves in the current business environment to live within our means in order to maintain financial strength,” ConocoPhillips Chairman and Chief Executive Jim Mulva said in the statement. “We’re doing this by reducing our cost structure, addressing our balance sheet and continuing to manage the company through prudent capital discipline.” Translation, “we aren’t drilling anywhere near what we were before.”

In November, ConocoPhillips and the state-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co. postponed construction of a multibillion-dollar refinery in Saudi Arabia because of the deteriorating global economic situation, which has eaten away at energy demand.

Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit has said he expects spending cuts to average 10 percent for large producers and 30 percent for smaller companies.

Chevron (CVX) spokesman Don Campbell said Friday the company had no plans to cut its work force. Exxon Mobil (XOM) hasn’t announced any work force changes either.

In addition, ConocoPhillips said it likely would replace only about 25 percent to 30 percent of its 2008 production with new reserves. Reserve replacements represent the ratio of reserves found over production for a given period. Analysts typically say a company’s reserves replacement should average more than 100 percent over a three- to five-year period to indicate growth.

This is very bullish for oil prices longer term. When demand returns (you have to believe we are in a global depression for it not to) prices will spike as excess supply dries up and this shuttered production lags the upturn.

If you want to play oil other than the individual companies, the ETF symbols are (DBO), (USO) and (DXO)


Disclosure (“none” means no position):Long DXO, none
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"America’s Great Depression": A Book

By Murray Rothbard, founder of the Mises Institute

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America’s Great Depression – Rothbard

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Published Research Academic Work


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GAO Report on TARP 12/2008

Read it and weep…

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GAO TARP December 2008

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Periodicals & Report 2008 tarp


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